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Probability - Let-2

The document contains 5 problems involving probability calculations with solutions: 1) Calculating the probability of outcomes when articles are chosen randomly from a lot containing good, minor defect, and major defect articles. 2) Finding probabilities related to badge numbers of people chosen simultaneously from a group of 10 people. 3) Computing probabilities of consecutive number tags being chosen from a box with or without replacement. The document provides background on sample spaces, probabilities of events, and approaches like with/without replacement to help solve the problems. Solutions involve defining events, considering outcomes, and applying probability formulas.

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Pritesh kumar
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112 views4 pages

Probability - Let-2

The document contains 5 problems involving probability calculations with solutions: 1) Calculating the probability of outcomes when articles are chosen randomly from a lot containing good, minor defect, and major defect articles. 2) Finding probabilities related to badge numbers of people chosen simultaneously from a group of 10 people. 3) Computing probabilities of consecutive number tags being chosen from a box with or without replacement. The document provides background on sample spaces, probabilities of events, and approaches like with/without replacement to help solve the problems. Solutions involve defining events, considering outcomes, and applying probability formulas.

Uploaded by

Pritesh kumar
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Problems:

1) What is the probability that a leap year selected at random contain 53 Sundays?

Solution: A leap year has 366 days i.e. 52 complete weeks and 2 days over and above.
via (S,M),(M,T),(T, W),(W, Thu),(Thu, F),(F, Sat),(Sat, S)
Let event A={A leap year contains 53 Sundays}
Total No. of cases= n=7 and favorable No. of cases= m=2
Therefore, P(A)= m/n= 2/7.

2) Suppose that A, B & C are events, Such that P(A)= P(B)=P(C)=1/4,


P(A∩B)=P(B∩C)=0 and P(A∩C)=1/8. Find the probability that atleast one of the
events A, B or C occurs.

Solution: P(AUBUC)= P(A)+P(B)+P(C)-P(A∩C)-P(A∩B)-P(B∩C)+P(A∩B∩C)


= 1/4+1/4+1/4-0-1/8-0+0
= (6-1)/8
= 5/8.

3) Suppose that A & B are events. Given that P(A)=x, P(B)=y, P(A∩B)=z.
̅UB
Find, i) P(A ̅∩B) iii) P(A
̅) ii) P(A ̅UB) iv)P(A
̅∩B
̅)

Solution:
i) ̅UB
P(A ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
̅)=P((A ∩ B))=1-P(A∩B)=1-z
ii) ̅
P(A ∩ B)=P(B)-P(A∩B)= y-z
iii) ̅UB)=P(A
P(A ̅)+P(B)-P(A ̅∩B)
=1-x+y-y+z
=1-x+z
iv) ̅ ̅
P(A∩B)=P((A̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
∪ B))=1-P(AUB)=1-P(A)-P(B)+P(A∩B)
=1-x-y+z

4) A class contains 10 boys and 20 girls, of which half the boys and half the girls have
brown eyes. A person is chosen at random from this group. What is the probability that
the chosen person is a boy or has brown eyes?

Solution: Define the events A : {The person chosen is a boy}


B : {The person chosen has brown eyes}
⸫ Required probability = P(A∪B) = ? = P(A)+P(B)-P(A∩B)

1
(10
1) 10 1
Now P(A) = = =
(30
1) 30 3
(151) 15 1
P(B) = 30 = =
(1) 30 2
(51) 5 1
P(A∩B) = = =
(30
1) 30 6

1 1 1 2
⸫ P(A∪B) = + - =
3 2 6 3

5) A lot consists of 10 good articles, 4 with minor defects and 2 with major defects. An
article is chosen at random. Find the probability that
a) it has no defects
b) it has no major defects
c) it is either good or has major defects

Solve it!

Finite Sample Space:


A sample space consisting of a finite or countably infinite number of elements is
referred to as Finite sample space.
Ex: S={a1,a2….ak}
In order to characterize P(A), consider an event consisting of single outcome, say, A={ai}
we assign a number pi is called the probability of {ai} satisfying
i) pi≥0, i=1,2,….k
ii) p1+p2+….+pk=1

Suppose that an event A consists of r outcomes, 1 ≤ r ≤ k, so that A={a j1,aj2,…ajr} where


j1,j2…jr are any indices from 1,2,3….k. Then P(A)=pj1+pj2+…+pjr.
Thus, by assigning probabilities pi to each elementary event {ai} subject to condition (i)
and (ii) above, one can uniquely determine P(A) for each A  S.
To evaluate pi’s and hence P(A), some assumptions such as equally likely outcomes
concerning the individual outcome must be made.

2
Note 1: In most of the experiments we are concerned with choosing at random one or more
objects from a given collection of objects. Suppose we have N objects say a1,a2….aN.

a) To choose one object at random from N objects means each object has the same
probability of selection. i.e. P(choosing any ai)=1/N, i=1,2….N.

b) To choose 2 objects at random from N objects means each pair of objects has the
same probability of being chosen as any other pair. Thus if there are k such pairs,
then P(choosing any pair)=1/k.

c) To choose n objects at random from N objects means that each n-tuple, say (ai,
a2…..an) is as likely to be chosen as any other n tuple. If there are k such groups of n
objects then P(choosing any group of n objects)=1/k.

Note 2: There are several ways in which samples may be selected from a population. Here
we consider, for example:
i) the samples drawn sequentially (one after another)
ii) the samples drawn simultaneously (together)

Let Z denote the set of balls in the urn. If the balls are drawn sequentially then we may
describe the outcome of the game by the ordered k-tuple, (z1,z2….zk) of elements of Z,
where z1 denotes the first ball drawn, z2 denotes the 2nd and so on and k th the total no. of
balls drawn. Thus we shall refer to (z1,z2….zk) as an ordered sample of size k.
If the balls are drawn simultaneously, it no longer makes sense to speak of a first
ball or 2nd ball etc., we may describe the outcome of our sampling only by the subset
{z1,z2….zk} as an unordered sample of size k.

1) The number of ways of choosing an unordered sample of k objects out of n


objects is (𝑛𝑘) i.e. 𝑛𝐶𝑘
2) The no. of ways of choosing ordered sample with replacement (WR) is nk
3) The no. of ways of choosing ordered samples without replacement (WOR) is
n!
𝑛
𝑃𝑘 = (n − k )!

3
Problems:

1) A lot consists of 10 good articles, 4 with minor defects and 2 with major defects.
Two articles are chosen at random without replacement. Find the probability that
a) both are good
b) both have major defects
c) atleast one is good
d) atmost one is good

Solve it!

2) Ten persons are wearing badges marked 1 through 10. Three persons are chosen at
random and asked to leave the room simultaneously with their badge no. being noted.
a) What is the probability that the smallest badge no. is 5?
b) What is the probability that the largest badge no. is 5?

Solve it!

3) A box contains tags marked 1,2,….n. Two tags are chosen at random. Find the
probability that the no.s on the tag will be consecutive integers if
a) the tags are chosen without replacement
b) the tags are chosen with replacement

Solve it!

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