Beijing Capital Intl Airport: China / Hong Kong Company Guide
Beijing Capital Intl Airport: China / Hong Kong Company Guide
Beijing Capital Intl Airport: China / Hong Kong Company Guide
• Maintain BUY with HK$10.00 TP Potential catalysts: BCIA’s share price could rebound if the
earnings impact from the opening of the new Daxing Airport in
Price Relative Beijing is not as pronounced as some investors have feared.
HK$ Relative Index
211
14.2
13.2 191
Valuation:
12.2
11.2
171 DCF-based TP of HK$10.00. Our TP for BCIA is based on
151
10.2
9.2
131 discounted cash flow, and assumes a WACC of 7.9% and
8.2
111
91
terminal growth rate of 1%.
7.2
6.2 71
5.2 51
Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Key Risks to Our View:
Beijing Capital Intl Airport (LHS) Relative HSI (RHS) Impact from new airport could be more negative than expected.
Forecasts and Valuation If a larger than expected decline in aircraft movements or
FY Dec (RMBm) 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F passenger throughput occurs following the opening of Daxing
Turnover 11,263 10,339 8,600 7,825 airport, BCIA’s earnings would be further affected.
EBITDA 5,412 4,801 3,702 3,362
Pre-tax Profit 3,829 3,239 2,081 1,688
Net Profit 2,872 2,430 1,561 1,266 At A Glance
Net Profit Gth (Pre-ex) (%) 19.0 (17.5) (35.7) (18.9) Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,879
EPS (HK$) 0.73 0.61 0.39 0.32 - Non H shrs (m shs) 2,452
EPS Gth (%) 10.4 (15.4) (35.7) (18.9)
Core EPS Gth (%) 19.0 (17.5) (35.7) (18.9) Mkt Cap (HK$m/US$m) 28,497 / 3,633
Diluted EPS (HK$) 0.73 0.61 0.39 0.32 Major Shareholders (%)
DPS (HK$) 0.29 0.25 0.16 0.13 NWS Holdings Ltd 6.4
BV Per Share (HK$) 5.92 6.29 6.53 6.72 Matthews International Capital Management, L.L.C. 6.0
PE (X) 9.1 10.7 16.7 20.5
Hermes Investment Management Ltd. 6.0
P/Cash Flow (X) 5.5 17.3 9.0 9.8
P/Free CF (X) 16.9 nm 34.5 50.8 GIC Private Limited 5.1
EV/EBITDA (X) 5.4 6.4 8.2 9.0 Free Float (%) 76.6
Net Div Yield (%) 4.4 3.7 2.4 1.9 3m Avg. Daily Val. (US$m) 5.80
P/Book Value (X) 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 ICB Industry: Industrials / Industrial Transportation
Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
ROAE(%) 12.8 10.1 6.2 4.8 Bloomberg ESG disclosure score (2017)^ 40.9
- Environmental / Social / Governance 32.6 / 47.4 / 53.6
Earnings Rev (%): (6) (5) (8)
Consensus EPS (RMB) 0.51 0.38 0.33 ^ refer to back page for more information
Other Broker Recs: B: 6 S: 4 H: 9
Source of all data on this page: Company, DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited
(“DBS HK”), Thomson Reuters
WHAT’S NEW Transitioning for the future: While the company earnings are
Earnings disappoint slightly but healthy retail expected to be on a decline over the next 2 to 3 years with
concession revenue helps offset loss of airport fees the opening of Daxing Airport, it is planning to make use of
this transition period to invest and upgrade for the future,
Revenue up by 1.1% to RMB5.38bn despite loss of airport
which we believe remains bright given its position in the
fees. Aeronautical revenues dropped 23% y-o-y to
capital of China.
RMB2,034m as airport fees have ceased to be recognised as
revenues, but this was offset by a 66% increase in retailing
We have lowered FY19/20/21F earnings by 6%/5%/8% to
concession revenue to RMB1,773m.
take into account lower interest income and higher
depreciation from the increased capital expenditures in the
Operating profit however, fell by 8% y-o-y to RMB1,816m
near term.
since there are costs associated with higher retail concession
revenues, unlike airport fees. Net profit fell by a similar 13%
y-o-y to RMB1,290m. An interim dividend of RMB 0.0894
was declared.
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Company Guide
Critical Factors
Aeronautical fees to decrease in importance. Aeronautical
revenue made up 46.7% of total net revenue in FY18 and
consisted of 1) passenger charges, 2) aircraft movements and
related charges, and 3) airport fees. With the announced policy
change that BCIA will cease to recognise airport fees from 29
Nov 2018 onwards, the contribution of aeronautical fees to
total revenue will decline to less than 40% in 2019F.
Passenger throughput growth (%)
Meanwhile, BCIA is expected to continue with its strategy of
improving the passenger throughput mix towards international
travellers, which generate higher aeronautical and non-
aeronautical revenue per pax.
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Company Guide
Balance Sheet:
Investing more in the few years to upgrade the airport’s Leverage & Asset Turnover (x)
infrastructure and capabilities. The company plans to take
advantage of the transition period over the next few years to
upgrade its facilities and infrastructure to cater for longer term
growth, and we estimate that average capital expenditure will
be RMB 2bn to RMB 2.2bn per year from 2019F to 2021F.
Key Risks:
Impact from new airport could be more negative than
expected. If a larger than expected decline in aircraft
movements or passenger throughput occurs follow the
opening of Daxing airport, BCIA’s earnings would be further
affected.
Overpaying for acquisitions. There is a risk that BCIA will
overpay for any acquisition, which would lead to lower returns
for shareholders. PB Band
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Company Guide
Key Assumptions
FY Dec 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F
Aircraft movement growth (%) (1.5) 2.8 (3.4) (19.4) (11.8)
Passenger throughput growth (%) 1.5 5.4 (2.3) (18.2) (10.6)
Aeronautical revenue 5,100.7 5,309.4 4,039.7 3,312.7 2,969.5
Non-Aeronautical revenue 4,473.8 5,953.1 6,299.5 5,287.8 4,855.8
Source: Company, DBS HK
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Company Guide
Growth
Revenue Gth (%) 9.9 10.7 15.3 19.8 1.1
Opg Profit Gth (%) 23.9 21.5 15.5 12.1 (12.2)
Net Profit Gth (%) 39.6 52.6 17.6 3.7 (13.2)
Margins
Gross Margins (%) 38.8 35.4 38.9 33.2 33.8
Opg Profit Margins (%) 38.8 35.4 38.9 33.2 33.8
Net Profit Margins (%) 27.4 26.9 27.9 23.3 24.0
Source: Company, DBS HK
Balance Sheet (RMB m)
FY Dec 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F
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Company Guide
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Company Guide
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-18
Apr-19
May-19
Nov-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Feb-19
Aug-18
Oct-18
Aug-19
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Company Guide
^ Bloomberg ESG Disclosure Scores rate companies annually based on their disclosure of quantitative and policy-related ESG data. It is based on a
scoring scale of 0-100, and calculated using a subset of more than 100 raw data points it collects on ESG. It is designed to measure the robustness
of companies' disclosure of ESG information in their reporting/the public domain. Based on Bloomberg disclosures, as of 25 Jan 2019, the global
ESG disclosure average score is 24.92 and 22.14, 28.26, 49.97 for Environmental, Social and Governance, respectively.
DBS HK recommendations are based on an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:
STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)
BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)
HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)
FULLY VALUED (negative total return, i.e., > -10% over the next 12 months)
SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)
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Company Guide
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the
companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst(s) also certifies that no part of his/her
compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. The research analyst (s)
primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that he or his associate 1 does not serve as an officer of
the issuer or the new listing applicant (which includes in the case of a real estate investment trust, an officer of the management company of the
real estate investment trust; and in the case of any other entity, an officer or its equivalent counterparty of the entity who is responsible for the
management of the issuer or the new listing applicant) and the research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report or
his associate does not have financial interests2 in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant that the analyst reviews. DBS Group has
procedures in place to eliminate, avoid and manage any potential conflicts of interests that may arise in connection with the production of
research reports. The research analyst(s) responsible for this report operates as part of a separate and independent team to the investment
banking function of the DBS Group and procedures are in place to ensure that confidential information held by either the research or investment
banking function is handled appropriately. There is no direct link of DBS Group's compensation to any specific investment banking function of the
DBS Group.
1. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBSVS or their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates have a proprietary position in Beijing Capital International
Airport Co Ltd (694 HK) recommended in this report as of 28 Aug 2019.
2. Neither DBS Bank Ltd nor DBS HK market makes in equity securities of the issuer(s) or company(ies) mentioned in this Research
Report.
1
An associate is defined as (i) the spouse, or any minor child (natural or adopted) or minor step-child, of the analyst; (ii) the trustee of a trust of
which the analyst, his spouse, minor child (natural or adopted) or minor step-child, is a beneficiary or discretionary object; or (iii) another person
accustomed or obliged to act in accordance with the directions or instructions of the analyst.
2
Financial interest is defined as interests that are commonly known financial interest, such as investment in the securities in respect of an issuer or a
new listing applicant, or financial accommodation arrangement between the issuer or the new listing applicant and the firm or analysis. This term
does not include commercial lending conducted at arm's length, or investments in any collective investment scheme other than an issuer or new
listing applicant notwithstanding the fact that the scheme has investments in securities in respect of an issuer or a new listing applicant.
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Company Guide
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Company Guide
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DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited
13 th Floor One Island East, 18 Westlands Road, Quarry Bay, Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 3668-4181, Fax: (852) 2521-1812
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Company Guide
INDONESIA THAILAND
PT DBS Vickers Sekuritas (Indonesia) DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd
Contact: Maynard Priajaya Arif Contact: Chanpen Sirithanarattanakul
DBS Bank Tower 989 Siam Piwat Tower Building,
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