FCFF Valuation Model: Before You Star What The Model Inputs Master Inputs Page Earnings Normalizer
FCFF Valuation Model: Before You Star What The Model Inputs Master Inputs Page Earnings Normalizer
FCFF Valuation Model: Before You Star What The Model Inputs Master Inputs Page Earnings Normalizer
Before you star The spreadsheet has circular reasoning. This is not a problem. Go into calculation options (in excel) and check
the iteration box.
What the modelThis model is designed to value firms with operating income that is either positive or can be normalized to be
positive. It allows for up to 15 years of high growth, and can be used either as a 2-stage or a 3-stage model.
Inputs The inputs are in the following pages:
1. The bulk of the inputs are in the master inputs page. Here, you can input the numbers from the current
financial statements, and review and change the inputs for the valuation.
2. If you want to normalized operating income, use the earnings normalizer worksheet.
3. If you have R&D or operating leases, you will need to input the required numbers in those worksheets.
Important: Be consistent about the units you use. If you use millions, use millions for all of your inputs.
Options The spreadsheet can be used to value a company, with fixed inputs for a high growth phase and different inputs
for a stable growth phase (2-stage model) or it can be adjusted to allow for a transition phase (3-stage model).
To switch from one to the other, enter yes in the master input page to the question of whether you want the
inputs adjusted during the second half of the high growth phase.
You can even make it a stable growth model, by setting the length of the high growth period to zero.
Other worksheeThere are two other worksheets that you might find useful at the end of this spreadsheet
1. Bottom-up beta estimator: will estimate your levered beta, given an unlevered beta (which you will have to
input.
2. Industry averages: Here, you can look up industry averages for variables such as beta, return on capital,
reinvestment rates and working capital.
Output The output is contained in the valuation model worksheet.
xcel) and check
ormalized to be
d different inputs
3-stage model).
ou will have to
An apology: I apologize for the number of inputs that are required on this sheet. Many of the inputs are required only if you choose the appr
If you have negative operating income, you will either have to normalize it to make it positive, or use the highgrowth.xls spreadsheet.
Master Input Sheet
Do you want to capitalize R&D expenses? No ! Yes or No Go to R&D Converter
Do you want to convert operating leases to debt? No ! Yes or No Go to Operating lease converter
Do you want to normalize operating income? Yes Go to Earnings Normalizer
Inputs
From Current Financials
Current EBIT = ### ! If negative, go back and choose to normalize earnings.
Current Interest Expense = ###
Current Capital Spending ###
Current Depreciation & Amort'n = ###
Tax rate (for computing after-tax operating income) = 21.00%
Marginal tax rate = 33.99% Previous year-end
Current Revenues = ### ###
Current Non-cash Working Capital = ###
Chg. Working Capital = ### Previous year-end
Book Value of Debt = ### ###
Book Value of Equity = ### ###
Options
Do you have equity options (management options, warrants) o No
If yes, enter the number of options 2.23
Average strike price R$ 13.85
Average maturity 1.5
Standard Deviation in stock price 30%
Do you want to use the stock price to value the option or your P
Valuation Inputs
High Growth Period
Length of high growth period = 10
Beta to use for high growth period for your firm= 1.2
Lambda to use for your firm (for both high growth and stable 0.8
Do you want to keep the debt ratio computed from your input Yes
If yes, the debt ratio that will be used to compute the cost of ca 25.30%
If no, enter the debt ratio that you would like to use in the hi 7.00%
Do you want to keep the existing ratio of working capital to r Yes
If yes, the working capital as a percent of revenues will be -1.54%
If no, enter the ratio of working capital to revenues to use in a 4.50%
Do you want to compute your growth rate from fundamentals yes
If no, enter the expected growth rate in operating income for 12%
If yes, the inputs to the fundamental growth calculation (based upon your inputs) are
Return on Capital = 17.16%
Reinvestment Rate = 170.61%
Do you want to change these inputs? Yes
Return on Capital = 17.16%
Reinvestment Rate = 70.00%
0.1451
0.1307
3
If historical average,
Average Earnings before taxes = 19737.6
If sector margin
Pre-tax Operating Margin for Sector = 7.04% ! Look at industry average
Inputs
Over how many years do you want to amortize R&D expenses 5 ! If in doubt, use the lookup table below
Enter the current year's R&D expense = $1,594.00 The maximum allowed is ten years
Enter R& D expenses for past years: the number of years that you will need to enter will be determined by the amortization period
Do not input numbers in the first column (Year). It will get automatically updated based on the input above.
Year R& D Expenses
-1 1026.00 ! Year -1 is the year prior to the current year
-2 698.00 ! Year -2 is the two years prior to the current year
-3 399.00
-4 211.00
-5 89.00
0
0
0
0
0
Output
Year R&D Expense Unamortized portion Amortization this year
Current 1594.00 1.00 1594.00
-1 1026.00 0.80 820.80 $205.20
-2 698.00 0.60 418.80 $139.60
-3 399.00 0.40 159.60 $79.80
-4 211.00 0.20 42.20 $42.20
-5 89.00 0.00 0.00 $17.80
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00
Value of Research Asset = $3,035.40 $484.60
Output
Pre-tax Cost of Debt = 12.25% ! If you do not have a cost of debt, use the ratings estimator
Number of years embedded in yr 6 estima 3 ! I use the average lease expense over the first five years
to estimate the number of years of expenses in yr 6
Converting Operating Leases into debt
Year Commitment Present Value
1 $ 156.00 $138.98
2 $ 143.00 $113.49
3 $ 122.00 $86.26
4 $ 109.00 $68.66
5 $ 97.00 $54.43
6 and beyond $ 149.33 $200.40 ! Commitment beyond year 6 converted into an annuity for ten years
Debt Value of leases = $ 662.22
Restated Financials
Depreciation on Operating Lease Asset = $82.78 ! I use straight line depreciation
Adjustment to Operating Earnings = $81.12 ! PV of operating leases * Pre-tax cost of debt
Adjustment to Total Debt outstanding = $ 662.22
EBIT (1 -t) = ###
Expected growth rate in perpetuity 5.00%
Cost of capital = 10.39%
Return on capital = 12.00%
Input Summary
Rupees Dollar
Normalized EBIT (before adjustm ### ###
Page
Two-Stage FCFF Discount Model
Intermediate Output
Expected Growth Rate 12.01%
Working Capital as percent of re -1.54% (in percent)
The FCFF for the high growth phase are shown below (upto 10 years)
Current 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Expected Growth Rate 12.01% 12.01% 12.01% 12.01% 12.01% 10.61% 9.21% 7.80% 6.40% 5.00%
Cumulated Growth 112.01% 125.47% 140.54% 157.42% 176.33% 195.04% 213.00% 229.62% 244.32% 256.54%
Reinvestment Rate 70.00% 70.00% 70.00% 70.00% 70.00% 64.33% 58.67% 53.00% 47.33% 41.67%
EBIT * (1 - tax ra ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
- (CapEx-Depreci ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
-Chg. Working CaINR 2,732.00 -INR 490.70 -INR 549.65 -INR 615.67 -INR 689.63 -INR 772.47 -INR 764.24 -INR 733.59 -INR 679.10 -INR 600.56 -INR 499.03
Free Cashflow to ### INR 6,759.96 INR 7,571.99 INR 8,481.56 INR 9,500.40 ### ### ### ### ### ###
Cost of Capital 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.08% 11.66% 11.24% 10.81% 10.39%
Cumulated Cost of Capital 1.1250 1.2657 1.4240 1.6020 1.8023 2.0201 2.2556 2.5091 2.7804 3.0693
Present Value $6,009 $5,982 $5,956 $5,930 $5,904 $6,927 $7,852 $8,653 $9,310 $9,808
Page
Two-Stage FCFF Discount Model
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
EBIT (1-t) 22533 25240 28272 31668 35472 39236 42848 46192 49150 51607
- Reinvestment 15773 17668 19790 22168 24830 25242 25138 24482 23264 21503
FCFF 6760 7572 8482 9500 10642 13994 17711 21710 25886 30104
Page
Two-Stage FCFF Discount Model
Terminal Year
###
###
-INR 635.07
###
Page
Valuing Options or Warrants
Enter the current stock price = $780.50
Enter the strike price on the option = $13.85
Enter the expiration of the option = 1.5
Enter the standard deviation in stock pric 30.00% (volatility)
Enter the annualized dividend yield on s 0.00%
Enter the treasury bond rate = 5.00%
Enter the number of warrants (options) o 2.23
Enter the number of shares outstanding = 413.05
d1 = 11.3603541
N (d1) = 1
d2 = 10.9929306
N (d2) = 1
Output
Firm's Current market value D/E ratio = 33.87% ! Reverted back to conventional debt to equity ratio
Firm's Current tax rate = 33.99%