The Demand For Road-Based Passenger Mobility in India: 1950-2030 and Relevance For Developing and Developed Countries
The Demand For Road-Based Passenger Mobility in India: 1950-2030 and Relevance For Developing and Developed Countries
The Demand For Road-Based Passenger Mobility in India: 1950-2030 and Relevance For Developing and Developed Countries
The main aim of the paper is to estimate the demand for road-based passenger mobility in
India and subsequently project the energy demand and CO2 emissions resulting from the
same. Based on a data set of the four major motorized modes of transport – buses, cars
(including jeeps and taxis), two-wheelers, and auto-rickshaws from 1950-51 to 2000-01,
long-term trends in motorized traffic volume and modal split are projected up to the year
2030-31. It is found that the road-based traffic volume in India will increase from 3079
billion passenger-kilometers in 2000-01 to 12546 billion passenger-kilometers in 2030-31.
Between 2000-01 and 2030-31, the aggregate share of private- and para-transit modes is
projected to increase from 24.3% to 55.3% whereas the share of public transport mode is
estimated to decrease from 75.7% to 44.7%. Based on the projected values of aggregate
traffic volume, modal split, and modal intensities for energy demand and CO2 emissions, the
paper then estimated the level of energy demand and CO2 emission from the road-based
passenger transport sector in India. If there is no reduction in modal intensities, energy
demand is projected to increase from 954 peta joules in 2000-01 to 5897 peta joules in 2030-
31 whereas CO2 emission is estimated to increase from 17.27 to 93.22 million metric tons of
carbon equivalent during the same period. Even when we assume a reduction of 1% per year
in energy and CO2 intensity of all modes of transport, energy demand and CO2 emission is
projected to increase by a 4.6- and 4.0-fold respectively from 2000-01 to 2030-31.
Keywords: passenger transport in India; motorized mobility; energy demand; CO2 emission;
forecasting
248 The demand for road-based passenger mobility in India:
1950-2030 and relevance for developing and developed countries
1. Introduction
Road-based passenger mobility in India has increased tremendously over the years. From
1950-51 to 2000-01, passenger mobility increased from 36 billion passenger-kilometers
(BPKm) to 3079 BPKm due to more than 30-fold increase in annual distance traveled by the
people (from 100 in 1950-51 to 3021 Kms in 2000-01) and a 2.84-fold rise in population
(from 359 million in 1950-51 to 1019 million in 2000-01). It is interesting to know that
between 1980-81 and 2000-01, in light of a 50% population growth, motorized mobility by
road in India has risen by 425% (from 585 to 3079 BPKm). Analysis of per capita mobility
(i.e., passenger-kilometers per capita; PKm/cap) data shows that the average annual distance
traveled by the people quadruples in every two decades. For example, between 1980-81 and
2000-01, per capita mobility increased from 862 to 3021 Kms (table 1).
Although large proportion of mobility need is still catered by the buses, there is a rapid
increase in reliance on automobiles particularly during recent years. For example, during
1990s, per capita mobility by two-wheelers, auto-rickshaws and cars1 increased by 124%,
130% and 97% respectively against the corresponding increase of 60% for buses. Due to this,
mobility share of private- and para-transit modes2 increased from 19.4% in 1990-91 to 24.3%
in 2000-01.
Rapid increase in motorized mobility during the last two decades or so is primarily due to
increase in household income, increase in commercial and industrial activities, availability of
motorized transport, and improvement in road transport infrastructure. Per capita income and
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in India has increased by 100% and 200% respectively
between 1980-81 and 2000-01. Latest figures from Central Statistical Organization (CSO),
New Delhi reveals that per capita income in India has increased at the rate of 4.1% per annum
from 1994-95 to 2004-05 whereas GDP has increased at the rate of 5.8% per annum during
the same period. Besides rapid increase in income and economic activities, there has been
significant change in automobile sector during the last two decades. Due to the liberalization
of Indian economy during late 1980s and early 1990s, many new firms entered the
automobile market to produce variety of cars and two-wheelers. Availability of variety of
product and financing of durable product purchase at low interest rate has increased the sale
of private vehicles substantially during 1990s and afterwards.3 For example, during the year
2004-05, more than one million cars and six million two-wheelers were sold in the country.
As far as road infrastructure is concerned, total road network and National Highway (NH)
increased by 67% and 55% respectively between 1990-91 and 2000-01. Presently, India has a
vast road network of about 3.3 million km of which the national highway and the state
highways together account for 195000 km length. Though the 65569 km long NH constitutes
only 1.98 per cent of the total road length in the country, it carries around 40 per cent of road
traffic. Recently, the central government has created a dedicated fund, called Central Road
Fund (CRF)4 from the collection of cess on petrol and diesel. The fund is distributed for
1
Cars include jeeps and taxis. This will be followed throughout this paper.
2
Private- and para-transit modes include cars, two-wheelers, and auto-rickshaws.
3
60% of the cars bought in the last decade were through finance.
4
The Central Road Fund Ordinance, 2000 was promulgated on November 1, 2000 to give statutory effect to the
creation of Central Road Fund from the collection of cess on petrol and diesel. 50% of the cess on diesel will be
allocated for the development of rural roads. The balance of amount of 50% on diesel and entire cess collected
on petrol will be allocated for the development and maintenance of national highways (57.5%), for construction
of road over/under bridges and other safety works at unmanned rail road crossing (12.5%) and development and
development and maintenance of NH, state roads, and rural roads. From last five years or so,
the government has embarked upon a massive National Highways Development Project
(NHDP) in the country. The main aim of NHDP, India’s largest ever highways project, is to
build high quality roads with uninterrupted traffic flow.
Although all these have contributed for change in modal-split structure where share of
private- and para-transit modes is increasing, the equally important reasons are to be found in
the public transport system itself. Speed, service quality, convenience, flexibility and
availability favor adoption of private mode as the main mode of transport. Given the
opportunity, people reveal widely divergent transport preferences, but in many places in the
country transport authorities favor a basic standard of public transport services. Government
regulation and control have exacerbated the poor operational and financial performance of
publicly owned transport undertakings, which are the main provider of bus transport services
in the country. It is increasingly becoming very difficult for loss making transport
undertakings to augment and manage their fleet, which in turn leading to poor operational
performance and deterioration in quality of services. As a consequence, those who can afford
private vehicle are successively leaving public transport.
The main aim of the paper is to estimate the long-term trends in motorized traffic volume and
modal split and subsequently, based on the projected values of traffic volume and modal split,
estimate the level and growth of energy demand and CO2 (carbon dioxide) emission from the
road-based passenger transport sector in India.5 Required data from 1950-51 to 2000-01 are
used to estimate the long-term trends in motorized traffic volume and modal split. These data
account for the four major modes of passenger transport namely cars, two-wheelers, auto-
rickshaws, and buses. Appendix summarizes the data sources and their estimation methods.
The statistical program Limdep version 8.0 is used for the required regression analysis. The
paper projected the level and growth of energy demand and CO2 emission from passenger
transport sector in India using a scenario approach. Two scenarios, business as usual and
efficiency gain, are discussed in the paper. In the business as usual scenario, both energy and
CO2 intensities of all transport modes are assumed to remain at 2000-01 levels whereas in the
efficiency gain scenario, intensities are assumed to reduce at the rate of 1% per year in one
case and 2% per year in another case from 2000-01 onwards.
The paper is organized into the following sections. Section 2 deals with the model to project
future per capita mobility, model estimation, and projection of passenger mobility up to the
year 2030-31. Section 3 presents estimation and projection of modal split changes. Using a
scenario approach, Section 4 describes the energy demand whereas CO2 emission estimates
are presented in Section 5. Section 6 discusses the strategies to reduce energy demand and
CO2 emissions from the transport sector. The paper’s findings are summarized in Section 7.
maintenance of state roads including roads of economic importance (30%). The fund will be non-lapsable and
will be used to fund the development of the total hierarchy of roads, right from national highways through state
highways to rural roads.
5
Refer Singh (2006) for another study on passenger transport sector in India. Singh (2006) focuses on land-
based (i.e., rail plus road) passenger transportation and its impact on energy demand and carbon dioxide
emission. Traffic mobility forecasting model in Singh (2006) uses GDP and population as the main explanatory
variables rather than time trend. Also, time period for which forecasting has been done is relatively shorter.
Unlike Singh (2006), this paper also examines the strategies to reduce energy demand and CO2 emissions from
road-based passenger transport sector in India.
Note: All figures are rounded off to zero decimal place and (-) indicates negligible quantity.
6
An overview of such functional forms is given in Meade and Islam (1998), see also Tanner (1978), Bewley and
Fiebig (1988), Meade and Islam (1995), Ramanathan (1998), Dargay and Gately (1999), Ramanathan and
Parikh (1999), Singh (2000), Franses Philip Hans (2002), and Mohamed and Bodger (2005).
PKm
( ) t = α exp(−γexp(− β (time) t )) + ε t (2)
cap
where all the variables and parameters have their previous meaning and εt is an error term at
period t. The Gompertz function also ranges from 0 to α as time ranges from -∞ to +∞. In this
PKm α
case, maximum growth rate αβ/e is achieved when = , that is, when per capita
cap e
mobility reaches around 37% of its saturation level.
Both logistic and Gompertz models can easily be estimated using non-linear least square
method. These two models can be estimated once by assuming no restriction on the saturation
level and then by imposing restrictions on the saturation level. This should be done primarily
because there is no guarantee that the final estimate of the saturation level, α, is close to the
global optimum (Heij C. et al., 2004). Therefore, to estimate the models, it is essential to get
a reliable estimate of the saturation level of per capita mobility. Taking into account the
saturation level in developed countries and the socio-economic characteristics (such as
population density, rapid increase in teledensity, boom in information technology, high fuel
prices, etc.) of India, 11000 PKm per capita appears to be the most appropriate saturation
level.
Here, it would be useful to examine road-based PKm per capita in the United Kingdom (UK)
from Europe and the United States (US) from America. Road-based per capita mobility in the
UK has been relatively stable since 1990. According to the data published by the ECMT-
Eurostat, it was around 11000 PKm per capita during the year 2000 which implies that the
saturation level for the UK may be somewhere between 11000 and 12000 PKm per capita.
The Bureau of Transportation Statistics, USA data shows that during the year 2000, PKm per
capita by road in the United States was around 23000. The US is also approaching to its
saturation level since growth in per capita mobility is slowing down over the recent years.
There are many factors which explain the difference in the saturation level between the US
and UK. Public transport is far more important for passenger travel in the UK than in the US.
The US has far more extensive motorway networks, much cheaper fuel, and longer trip
distances both within and between cities which encourage private vehicle use. Since transport
availability characteristics (such as greater reliance on public transport, high fuel prices, etc.)
in India is more close to the UK, we expect that the saturation level in India would be around
11000 PKm per capita.7 Besides these, deterioration in air quality particularly in urban areas
has forced Indian government to take various measures including adoption of market based
instruments to reduce the usage of private vehicles. Measures such as cess on petrol and
diesel, parking fee, congestion pricing, etc. are getting accepted in the country. Assuming that
government policy will discourage the usage of private vehicles in forthcoming years due to
environmental consideration, we expect that the mobility per capita in India will not follow
the pattern of the US. Due to these reasons, our assumption about the saturation level of
11000 PKm per capita in India appears to be reasonable. However, both logistic and
Gompertz models can be estimated for different saturation levels (e.g., 7000, 8000, 9000,
7
This is close to what has been estimated by Singh (2000). In his paper, Singh (2000) estimated that the
saturation level for land-based (i.e., road and rail taken together) passenger mobility in India will be around
20000 billion PKm. Assuming that the Indian population will saturate at 1.65 billion and rail will supply
between 8 and 10% of the total land-based travel demand, saturation level for road-based per capita mobility
would be around 11000 Kms.
10000, 11000 and 12000 PKm/capita) not only to illustrate the different possible paths of per
capita passenger mobility but also to find out the most appropriate saturation level. The Mean
Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)8 over the sample period can be used to find out the most
appropriate model and saturation level.
8
The MAPE is commonly used in quantitative forecasting methods because it produces a measure of relative
overall fit. The absolute values of all the percentage errors are summed up and the average is computed.
Table 2. Parameter estimates of the logistic and Gompertz models (with t-statistic in
parentheses)
Model Estimate
No restriction on the saturation level
Logistic (1) α = 6852.5 (6.7), β = 0.4226 (18.8), γ = 129.4445 (12.2); R2 = 0.9982; MAPE = 7.99
Gompertz (2) α = 167763.8 (0.7), β = 0.4226 (18.8), γ = 0.0669 (3.3); R2 = 0.9969; MAPE = 9.81
Saturation level, α = 7000
Logistic (1) β = 0.4196 (51.8), γ = 129.8765 (12.9); R2 = 0.9982; MAPE = 7.66
Gompertz (2) β = 0.2092 (19.1), γ = 8.7228 (10.1); R2 = 0.9867; MAPE = 32.13
Saturation level, α = 8000
Logistic (1) β = 0.4030 (50.4), γ = 134.5063 (13.0); R2 = 0.9980; MAPE = 5.81
Gompertz (2) β = 0.1917 (21.0), γ = 8.2357 (12.0); R2 = 0.9888; MAPE = 30.17
Saturation level, α = 9000
Logistic (1) β = 0.3910 (48.0), γ = 141.0511 (12.7); R2 = 0.9978; MAPE = 4.41
Gompertz (2) β = 0.1786 (22.7), γ = 7.9300 (13.9); R2 = 0.9902; MAPE = 28.55
Saturation level, α = 10000
Logistic (1) β = 0.3819 (45.7), γ = 148.6936 (12.3); R2 = 0.9975; MAPE = 3.46
Gompertz (2) β = 0.1683 (24.2), γ = 7.7270 (15.6); R2 = 0.9913; MAPE = 27.18
Saturation level, α = 11000
Logistic (1) β = 0.3748 (43.7), γ = 157.0214 (11.9); R2 = 0.9973; MAPE = 3.13
Gompertz (2) β = 0.1599 (25.5), γ = 7.5869 (17.2); R2 = 0.9921; MAPE = 26.02
Saturation level, α = 12000
Logistic (1) β = 0.3691 (42.1), γ = 165.8050 (11.7); R2 = 0.9971; MAPE = 3.15
Gompertz (2) β = 0.1531 (26.7), γ = 7.4876 (18.8); R2 = 0.9927; MAPE = 25.01
9
To project the absolute mobility during the next three decades, we require population estimates up to the year
2030-31. Based on the World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision Population Database published by the
United Nations Population Division, population of India is assumed to grow at the rate of 1.56% per annum
from 2000-01 to 2005-06, 1.41% per annum from 2005-06 to 2010-11, 1.27% per annum from 2010-11 to 2015-
16, 1.11% per annum from 2015-16 to 2020-21, 0.94% per annum from 2020-21 to 2025-26, and 0.76% per
annum from 2025-26 to 2030-31.
2010-11 to 2020-21 and 3.01% and 2.14% per annum from 2020-21 to 2030-31
respectively.10
11000
PKm/cap
5500
0
19 1
19 61
19 1
19 81
20 1
20 1
20 11
20 1
20 31
20 1
20 1
20 61
20 1
20 81
30 1
1
-5
-7
-9
-0
-2
-4
-5
-7
-9
-0
-
-
50
60
70
80
90
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
00
19
Year
Table 3. Level as well as growth of road-based passenger mobility in India from 1950-51
to 2030-31
Per capita CAGR in per capita CAGR in population Absolute CAGR in absolute
Population
mobility mobility (since the (since the previous mobility mobility (since the
(million)
(PKm/cap) previous period) period) (BPKm) previous period)
1950-51 100 - 359 - 36 -
1960-61 216 8.06% 434 1.91% 94 10.13%
1970-71 443 7.45% 541 2.23% 240 9.84%
1980-81 862 6.88% 679 2.30% 585 9.34%
1990-91 1773 7.48% 839 2.14% 1487 9.77%
2000-01 3021 5.48% 1019 1.96% 3079 7.55%
2010-11 4996 5.16% 1181 1.49% 5900 6.72%
2020-21 7016 3.45% 1329 1.19% 9327 4.69%
2030-31 8673 2.14% 1447 0.85% 12546 3.01%
Note: Per capita mobility and absolute mobility figures have been rounded off to zero decimal place.
10
Growth rate is calculated as compound annual growth rate (CAGR) rather than simple annual growth rate.
This is followed throughout this paper.
11
After independence, in view of the increasing importance of road transport, the Government of India passed
the Road Transport Corporation Act 1948, which was subsequently replaced by the Act of 1950. This Act
enables the State Governments to form corporations for progressive nationalization of bus industry in the
country. The undertakings established under this Act, as well as others formed under other kinds of
incorporation, are usually described as State Transport Undertakings (henceforth, STUs). The STUs were set up
by the several States, and during the last four to five decades some of them have grown into giant-sized
organizations. STUs are the main provider of bus transport services in the country. The work culture in most of
the STUs has become strong impediments in their healthy growth. Continuous losses and liberal subsidy by the
Central and State Governments never provided the STUs a chance to learn the basics of financial discipline
which eventually made the STUs highly inefficient. The STUs also failed to learn from the market. Operating
schedules for eight hours according to the convenience of the crew became more important than meeting the
actual demand of customers. Since the Motor Vehicle Act 1988 introduced deregulation and liberalization in the
market, STUs are finding it difficult to compete with private bus operators, intermediate public transport, and
personalized transport. Currently, bus population in the country is increasing at the rate of around 5% per year
mainly due to demand from private bus operators whereas private- and para-transit vehicles are increasing at the
rate of more than 10% per year. Clearly, transport demand for all modes is increasing but it’s increasing at
higher rate for private and para-transit modes. It is expected that as mobility demand (PKm per capita) goes up,
the share of public transport mode will go down.
private- and para-transit modes will increase from 24.3% in 2000-01 to 55.3% in 2030-31
(figure 3). We also projected the share of individual private- and para-transit modes up to the
year 2030-31 (figure 4). Since, the mobility share of cars, two-wheelers, and auto-rickshaws
within the private- and para-transit modes is virtually unchanged from 1993-94 onwards at
38%, 48.5%, and 13.5% respectively, we assumed that the same pattern will be followed up
to the year 2030-31.12 Based on this assumption, the share of individual private- and para-
transit modes has been projected. It is estimated that, during the year 2030-31, 21.0% of the
road-based traffic mobility in India will be provided by the cars, 26.8% by the two-wheelers,
and remaining 7.5% by the auto-rickshaws.
12
This assumption is made because growth rate of car, two-wheeler, and auto-rickshaw is more or less same
from 1993-94 to 2003-04 which is not expected to change significantly in near future. It is important to note that
per capita vehicle ownership in India is still among the lowest in the world and it can easily sustain high growth
path for these categories of vehicles for long period.
100
Traffic share of public transport mode (%)
90
80
70
2 2
60 Share = 79.29 + 2.88Time - 0.289Time ; R = 0.92
where Time is 1 for 1950-51, 2 for 1955-56,…...…,
50 and 17 for 2030-31
40
30
20
1
1
-5
-6
-7
-8
-9
-0
-1
-2
-3
50
60
70
80
90
00
10
20
30
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
Year
Figure 2. Projection of traffic share of public transport mode (buses) up to the year 2030-31
100
Traffic share of private- and para-transit modes
90
Traffic share of public transport mode
80 75.7
72.2
67.9
70 63.0
57.5 55.3
60
Share (%)
48.6 51.4
50 42.5 44.7
37.0
40 32.1
27.8
30 24.3
20
10
0
2000-01 2005-06 2010-11 2015-16 2020-21 2025-26 2030-31
Year
Figure 3. Projected modal split changes during the next three decades
75
Aggregate share of private- and para-transit modes
Share of cars
Share of two-wheelers 55.3
37.0
32.1
27.8 26.8
24.3 23.6
25 20.6 21.0
18.0 18.5
15.6 16.2
13.5 14.1
11.8 12.2
9.2 10.6
6.6 7.5
4.3 5.0 5.7
3.3 3.7
0
2000-01 2005-06 2010-11 2015-16 2020-21 2025-26 2030-31
Year
Figure 4. Projected share of private- and para-transit modes (cars, two-wheelers, and auto-
rickshaws) during the next three decades
Table 5. Modal share and energy intensities from 2000-01 to 2030-31; business as usual
scenario
Two-wheeler 364 193 190 920 488 413 1921 1018 766 3362 1782 1232
Auto-rickshaw 102 59 58 254 147 125 532 308 232 941 546 377
Bus 2330 443 434 4006 761 645 5363 1019 767 5608 1066 736
Total 3079 954 937 5900 2065 1749 9327 3731 2807 12546 5897 4075
Note: Sum of modal energy demand may not be equal to the total of the sector since energy intensity figures
have been rounded off to 2 decimal places. Also, PJ stands for peta joules (1 peta joule = 1015 joules) and MJ
stands for mega joules (1 mega joule = 106 joules).
14
Based on the data provided by Ramanathan and Parikh (1999), modal CO2 intensities for 2000-01 have been
estimated by the author.
Table 8. Modal share and CO2 intensities from 2000-01 to 2030-31; business as usual
scenario
Table 9. The level of CO2 emission from road passenger transport in India; business as
usual scenario
2000-01 2010-11 2020-21 2030-31
CO2 emission CO2 emission CO2 emission CO2 emission
Mode of transport (million metric (million metric (million metric (million metric
BPKm BPKm BPKm BPKm
tons of carbon tons of carbon tons of carbon tons of carbon
equivalent) equivalent) equivalent) equivalent)
Private- and
para-transit
modes (car, two- 749 7.53 1894 19.03 3964 39.84 6938 69.73
wheeler, and
auto-rickshaw)
Bus 2330 9.76 4006 16.79 5363 22.47 5608 23.50
Total 3079 17.27 5900 35.81 9327 62.30 12546 93.22
Note: Sum of modal CO2 emission may not be equal to the total of the sector since intensity figures have been
rounded off to 2 decimal places.
emission during the year 2030-31 is projected to be 50.81 million metric tons of carbon
equivalent, around 42 million metric tons of carbon equivalent less than that in the business
as usual scenario. This is mainly because there will be reduction in CO2 intensity of the sector
from 5.61 to 4.05 grams of carbon equivalent per PKm in a span of 30 years when CO2
intensities of all modes are getting reduced at the rate of 2% per year.
Similarly, per capita CO2 emission in 2030-31 is projected to be 47.70 kilograms of carbon
equivalent in 1% per year case and 35.12 kilograms of carbon equivalent in 2% per year case
rather than 64.44 kilograms of carbon equivalent in the business as usual case (figure 5). One
should note that even when there is a reduction in CO2 intensity of all modes by 2% per year,
CO2 emission from the sector will increase around 3-fold in a span of three decades from
17.27 in 2000-01 to 50.81 million metric tons of carbon equivalent in 2030-31. If we assume
1% per year reduction in CO2 intensity of all modes, which is more achievable than the 2%
per year case, CO2 emission is projected to increase by 4-fold in a span of three decades.
75
Business as Usual Scenario 64.44
Efficiency Gain Scenario (1% case)
60
Kilograms of carbon equivalent
0
2000-01 2010-11 2020-21 2030-31
Year
Figure 5. Per capita CO2 emission from road passenger transport in India
Table 10. The level of CO2 emission from road passenger transport in India; efficiency
gain scenario
transport demand for intra-city transportation. Considering the financial health of various
levels of governments (central, state, and local governments) and investment requirement to
improve the rail-based public transport system, it is evident that bus transport will have to
play a major role in providing passenger transport services in Indian cities in the future.
There is a need for variety of public transport services. Given the opportunity, people reveal
widely divergent transport preferences, but in many places authorities favor a basic standard
of public transport services. Presently, it is increasingly difficult to achieve good market
acceptance with a single type of product. Rail as well as bus transport operators in India still
believe that the vast majority of its users make the same type of commuting trips everyday,
and so promotes package that essentially assume this regularity. It may be possible that
current users of public transport have such regular pattern of use, but certainly many of those
that have left it had varying mobility needs that they felt poorly satisfied either by the
services themselves or by the price deals available. Therefore, it is required to segment the
supply of public transport system to provide different services for different people and even
to the same person at different occasions.
Rail- as well as road-based public transport services in India are mainly provided by the
publicly owned transport companies. Government regulation and control have exacerbated
the poor operational and financial performance of these companies. As cost of operation
rises, transport system comes under financial pressure to raise fares, but politicians are under
pressure to keep fares at existing levels. Unless the system is subsidized, it has to eliminate
some of its less profitable or loss making services. In democracy, politicians are bound to
yield to pressure from those whose services are threatened and to insist on maintaining
money-losing operations. Due to this, transport companies find it difficult to raise their
revenue sufficient enough to meet the cost of operation. In addition, they have to provide
concessional travel facilities to various groups such as freedom fighters, journalists, students,
etc. besides often paying a high level of different kinds of taxes.15 It is increasingly becoming
very difficult for loss making publicly owned transport companies to improve operational and
financial performance. Furthermore, publicly owned transport companies often lack the
flexibility of organization, the ability to hire and fire staff, or the financial discretion needed
to adapt to changing conditions. Therefore, there is an urgent need for restructuring of public
transport system in India to enhance both quantity as well as quality of services. (Singh,
2005).
15
During the year 2000-01, on an average, every bus operated by publicly owned bus transport undertakings in
India paid more than Rs. 100,000 in the form of motor vehicle tax, passenger tax, etc. On the other hand, private
vehicle owners have to pay one time nominal tax.
during combustion generates approximately 13% higher CO2 emissions.16 Diesel cars have
serious impact on public health due to their higher level of Particulate Matter (PM) emissions
particularly in densely populated metropolitan cities. Government should use market based
instruments to promote cleaner technology and fuel. For example, a relatively high annual
motor vehicle tax, which may be increasing with the age of vehicle, may be imposed on two
stroke two-wheelers and all vehicles that are more than say 10 years old. Similarly, cars that
use diesel could be discouraged in million plus cities by levying cess on diesel in those cities.
Congestion pricing, parking fee, fuel tax, etc. could effectively be used to restrain the usage
of all personalized modes.
6.8 Tightening vehicle emissions standards and inspection and maintenance programs
Appropriate vehicle emissions standards for new and in-use vehicles and a well-designed and
operated Inspection and Maintenance (I/M) program are important elements of an overall
strategy to reduce vehicle emissions and air pollution. Stringent emission regulations and
their effective implementation have produced good results in many developed countries.
However, emission standards in India are very lax compared to current Euro standards. At the
present time, India lags behind the European new vehicle standards and fuels requirements by
approximately a decade (table 11). Hence, there is a need to review the emission standards of
India and make them more stringent. It is required to set a goal to achieve parity with Europe,
United States or Japan by the year 2010 at the latest.
It has been estimated that at any point of time, new vehicle comprise only 8 to 10% of the
total vehicle population in India. Currently, only transport vehicles, that is, vehicles used for
hire or reward are required to undergo periodic fitness certification. The large population of
personalised vehicles is not yet covered by any such mandatory requirement. Modern
vehicles equipped with advanced pollution controls are even more dependent on properly
functioning components to keep pollution level low. Minor malfunctions in the air, fuel, or
spark management system can increase the emissions significantly. Therefore, tightening of
new vehicle emissions standards should be followed by a similar tightening of in-use vehicle
emission standards.
The inspection and maintenance system, comprising inspection, maintenance, and
certification of vehicles, is crucial for regulating pollution for the large fleet of in-use
vehicles. At present in India, there is no regular fitness checking program for in-use private
vehicles. Simple Pollution Under Control (PUC) checks came into existence in 1991 for all
on road vehicles. Commercial vehicles are required to undergo simple fitness checks in
addition to PUC checks. However, these are isolated checks and are grossly inadequate.
Government needs to consider (i) whether it has adopted the appropriate in-use vehicle
emissions standards and test procedures on which to base I/M, (ii) whether the institutional
capacity and willingness to enforce an I/M program exists, and (iii) whether the repair sector
is sufficiently trained to carry out repair work on vehicles which fail the tests. If any of these
aspects are found to be deficient, government should take appropriate measures to rectify the
problems. To ensure the public acceptance and their participation in I/M program, public
awareness campaign should be strengthened by the government. (Asian Development Bank,
2003).
16
Reducing CO2 Emissions in the Transport Sector, a status report by the Federal Environmental Agency,
Umweltbundesamt Berlin, Berlin, Sept. 2003, pp. 25. Also available at http://www.umweltbundesamt.org/fpdf-
l/2607.pdf.
Table 11. Emission standards for new vehicles (light duty) in selected countries
Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
India (entire Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3
country)
India (Delhi Euro 2 Euro 3
and other
cities)
Thailand Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4
Source: Asian Development Bank, (2003), “Vehicular Emissions Standards and Inspection and Maintenance”,
Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines.
7. Concluding remarks
This study estimated the future traffic mobility, energy demand, and CO2 emission from
road-based passenger transport sector in India. The traffic mobility in India increased at the
rate of 7.55% per year between 1990-91 and 2000-01 and is expected to increase at the rate of
6.72% per year between 2000-01 and 2010-11, 4.69% per year between 2010-11 and 2020-
21, and 3.01% per year between 2020-21 and 2030-31. Due to this, the traffic volume is
projected to increase from 3079 BPKm in 2000-01 to 12546 BPKm in 2030-31. As is the
case in developed world, India will also experience greater reliance on private- and para-trasit
modes in forthcoming years. It is estimated that during the year 2030-31, 26.8% of the road-
based traffic mobility will be provided by the two-wheelers, 21.0% by the cars, 7.5% by the
auto-rickshaws, and rest by the buses. Increase in traffic mobility and adverse modal split will
have huge implications for energy demand and CO2 emissions.
In the business as usual scenario, energy demand from the sector is projected to increase at
the rate of 8.0% per year from 2000-01 to 2010-11, 6.1% per year from 2010-11 to 2020-21,
and 4.7% per year from 2020-21 to 2030-31. Overall road-based passenger transport sector
energy use in 2030-31 is projected to be 5897 peta joules. When we assume 1% per year
reduction in energy intensity of all modes, energy requirement in 2030-31 is estimated to be
4391 peta joules. Even when we assume 2% per year reduction in energy intensity of all
modes, energy requirement will increase from 954 to 3262 peta joiles between 2000-01 and
2030-31. Assuming that the refined oil will continuously fuel the road-based passenger
transport sector, CO2 emission will grow more or less in the same proportion as energy
demand. In the business as usual scenario, CO2 emission is projected to increase from 17.27
to 93.22 million metric tons of carbon equivalent between 2000-01 and 2030-31. CO2
emission in 2030-31 is projected to be 69.00 million metric tons of carbon equivalent when
CO2 intensity of all modes is assumed to decline at the rate of 1% per year from 2000-01
onwards and 50.81 million metric tons of carbon equivalent when decline in intensity is
assumed to be 2% per year. One should note that even when there is a reduction in CO2
intensity of all modes by 2% per year, CO2 emission from the sector will increase around 3-
fold in a span of three decades.
India’s ability to protect environment will depend on its success in promoting policies that
keep the economy growing while fulfilling the energy demand in a sustainable manner.
Policy should be designed in such a way that it reduces the need to travel by personalized
modes and boosts public transport system. This could be achieved by enhancing quantity as
well as introducing variety of public transport services. At the same time, there is a need to
integrate different modes of public transport, segment supply of public transport system to
provide different services for different group of people, enhance productive efficiency of
public transport system, and adopt optimal pricing strategies. Since public transport services
in India are mainly provided by publicly owned transport companies, there should be an
effort to restructure the functioning of these companies. Improving public transport system in
isolation may not be very effective tool to reduce energy demand and thus vehicular
emission. Demand as well as supply side management measures should be used in such a way
so that it encourages people to use public transport. Government needs to use market based
instruments to promote cleaner technology and fuel. People should also be encouraged for
walking and cycling and government should support investments that make cycling and
walking safer. Global warming and health impact of air pollution need to be better
understood and communicated to the people to influence public attitude. One should note that
public attitudes influence politicians and policy makers and increase the political will to
tackle the problems holistically.
Acknowledgements
I would like to thank two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and valuable
suggestions, which considerably improved the exposition of this work. This paper is part of a
research study on “Passenger Transport Market in India” sponsored by the Indian Institute of
Technology, Kanpur, India. I am thankful to the Director and Dean (Research &
Development) of the institute for providing me financial support in the form of an initiation
grant to carry out this study.
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