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 CHAPTER 3
3.1
a)
R( t ) = e − λt = e − t / MTTF = e − t /1100
R( 200) = e −200/1100 =.834
b)
R( t d ) = e − td /1100 =.90
td = −1100 ln(.90 ) = 115.90 hrs
c)
R( t med ) = e − tmed /1100 =.5
tmed = −1100 ln(.5) = −1100( −.69315) = 762.46 hrs
d)
R( t ) = 1 − Prob(both components fail)
= 1 − (1 − Ri ( t ))2 = 1 − (1 − e − t /1100 )2 since components identical

m
R (200) = 1 − (1 − e 200 /1100 ) 2 =.973

o
3.2
R(t / T0 ) = R(t ) because of memoryless property

.c
R (100 / 1000) = R(100) = e −.0004(100) =.96
P (T < 100) = F (100) = 1 − R (100) = 1−.96 =.04

ie
R (1000 / 1000) = R (1000) = e −.0004(1000) =.67
P(T < 1000) = F(1000) = 1- R(1000) = 1-.67 =.33

3.3
h
c
λ 1 ( t ) =.0003 and λ 2 ( t ) = t / (5 ⋅105 )
2

e
λ ( t ) = ∑ λ i ( t ) = λ 1 ( t ) + λ 2 ( t ) =.0003 + t / (5 ⋅105 )
i =1

z z
T
t t
− λ ( t ′ ) dt ′ − (.0003+ t ′ /( 510
⋅ 5 ) dt ′
= e − (.0003t + t
2
/106 )
R( t ) = e 0
=e 0

R(100) = e − (.0003(100 )+100

e
2
/106 )
=.96

3.4
c
A
5
λ (t ) = ∑ λ i (t ) =.001+.005+.0007 +.0025+.00001 =.00921
i =1
a)
MTTF = 1 / λ = 1/.00921 = 108.58 days
σ 2 = 1 / λ2 and σ = 1 / λ = 108.58 days
1
b) t.99 = − ln(.99) = 108.59 ln(.99) = 109
. days
λ

3-1
3.5
λ L =.001
upper bound: e − λ L t = e − .0001t ≥ R(t )
upper bound for t = 60: e −.0001( 60) =.942 ≥ R(60)

3.6
p .0028
λ= = =.0056 where Δt = 1 / 2 day
Δt 1 / 2
R(t) = e - λt
R(30) = e − .0056( 30) =.845
P(10 < T < 20) = R (10) − R(20) = e −.0056(10) − e −.0056( 20) =.9455−.894 =.0515

3.7
R( td ) = e− λtd = R(10) = e − λ⋅10 =.99
λ = − ln(.99) / 10
λ is the system's constant failure rate,
m
o
10
MTTF = 1 / λ = = 995 yrs and tmed =.69315 ⋅ MTTF = 690 yrs
− ln.99

.c
− ln(.99)
Since the components are identical, λ i = λ / n =
10 ⋅ 20

ie
200
MTTFi = 1 / λ i = = 19,900 yrs and t med i =.69315(19900) = 13793 yrs
− ln(.99 )

3.8
h
c
R (3000) = 2e − λ ( 3000) − e −2 λ ( 3000) =.95

e
By trial and error:
λ R(3000)
.0001 .9328
T
e
.00005 .9806
.00008 .9545

c
.000085.9493
.000084.9504

A
.0000843 .9501
Therefore: MTTF=1/ λ =1/.0000843=11,862 hrs

3.9
a)
R (t d ) = e − λ std
R (5) = e − λ s ⋅5 =.95
λ s = − ln(.95) / 5 =.010287 → MTTFs = 1 / λ s = 97.478 yrs

λ s = λ 1 + λ 2 + λ 3 = λ 1 +.5λ 1 + 15
. λ 1 = 3λ 1

3-2
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 λ 1 = λ s / 3 =.0102587 / 3 =.003419567 → MTTF1 = 1 / λ 1 = 292.43 yrs
λ 2 =.5λ 1 =.001709784 → MTTF2 = 1 / λ 2 = 594.87 yrs
λ 3 = 3λ 2 = 15. λ 1 =.005129351 → MTTF3 = 1 / λ 3 = 194.96 yrs
b)
R (t ) = 1 − Prob(both power units fail) = 1- (1- e -.010287t ) 2 = 2e − .010287 t − e 2 (.010287) t
R (5) = 2e −.010287(5) − e −2 (.010287)5 =.9975
15
.
MTTF = = 146.2 yrs
λs

3.10
e −.03125t (.03125t )n
pn ( t ) =
n!
e−.03125⋅24 (.03125 ⋅ 24)0
p0 (1 day) = p0 ( 24 hrs ) = =.4724, p1 =.3542, p2 =.1329
0!
2
∑ pi ( 24 hrs) =.9595 → 2 bulbs are sufficient
i=0

m
3.11
a) o
.c
2 2
λ = ∑ λ i = ∑1 / MTTFi = 1 / 5 + 1 / 5 =.4
1 1

ie
F ( 2) = 1 − R( 2) = 1 − e −.4( 2 ) =.551
b)
P(more than 1 failure in first 5 hrs)=1-P(no failures in first 5 hrs)-P(1 failure in first 5 hrs)

h
= 1 − p0 (5) − p1 (5) = 1 − e − λt − e − λt ( λt ) = 1 − e −.4(5) − e −.4(5) (.4 ⋅ 5) =.595

c
c)
No. Would expect batteries to have an increasing failure rate (IFR) due to wear-out.

3.12
e
a)
T
R (t ) = 1 − (1 − e − λ 1t )(1 − e − λ 2 t ) = e − λ 1t + e − λ 2 t − e − ( λ 1 + λ 2 ) t
∞
z e
MTTF = R (t )dt =
1
+
1
−
1

c
0 λ1 λ 2 λ1 + λ 2
b)

MTTF =
A
R (1000) = e − .000356(1000) + e − .00156(1000) − e − (.000356 + .00156)1000 =.7634
1
+
1
−
1
= 2928.09 hrs
.000356 .00156 .000356+.00156

3-3
3.13
e − λt ( λt ) n
pn ( t ) = where λt = (.00021)(10,000) = 2.1
n!
−2 .1 e −2.1 (2.1)1 e −2.1 ( 2.1) 2
P (third failure by 10000 hrs) = 1 − p0 − p1 − p2 = 1 − e − − =.351
1! 2!

3.14
Yk is a random variable, the time of the kth failure. The expected value (mean) of Yk is k / λ .
k 10 10
E (Yk ) = = = = 294.11 hrs ≈ 12 days
λ 3.4 / 100 .034

3.15
λ i =.15 failures / yr ; t 0 = 2 months = 1 / 6 yr ; t = 10,000 hrs = 1.14 yrs
R i (t ) = e − λ i ( t − t0 )
R (t ) = 1 − (1 − Ri (t )) 2 = 1 − (1 − e − λ ( t − t0 ) ) 2 = 2e − λ ( t − t0 ) − e 2 λ ( t − t0 )
. ) = 2e −.15(1.14 −1/ 6) − e −2 (.15)(1.14 −1/ 6) =.982
R (114
m
3.16
R|1 − 1 − e o
.c
− λ ( t − t0 ) 2 − λ ( t − t0 ) −2 λ ( t − t0 )
= 2e −e
R( t ) = S
t > t0
|T 1 t ≤ t0

MTTF = z R( t ) = z dt + z 2e
∞
0
−e
t0
0
∞
t0
− λ ( t − t0 ) −2 λ ( t − t0 )

iez ∞
z ∞
dt = t0 + 2eλt0 t0 e− λt dt − e2 λt0 t0 e−2 λt dt

L e OP − e LM e OP ∞ ∞

h
− λt −2 λt0
= t + 2e M λt0 2 λt0 2 1 3
= t0 + − = t0 +
0
N −λ Q N −2λ Q λ 2λ 2λ

c
t0 t0

3.17
e
T
Assume exponential since constant failure rate, natural event, and equipment has no memory.
4

e
selective fading: λ sf = 4 / mo = =.005556 / hr
24 × 30

c
.5
flat fading: λ ff =.5 / mo = =.0006944
24 × 30

A
R( 24) = e− .005556( 24 ) +.0006944( 24 ) =.86

3.18 Failures on demand:

λI = 0 , λO = 1/1000, tI = 14 hrs, tO = 10 hrs, p = 1/120 = .00833

.001(10) .00833
λeff = + =.0007639 and td = - ln.90 / .0007639 = 137.9 hrs = 5.75 days
24 24

3-4
 3.19
f(t) = -dR(t) /dt = ba-bt (ln a) and λ(t) = f(t)/R(t) = b ln a , a constant

Let λ = b ln a = ln ab . Then eλ = ab and R(t) = a b c h −t

= e−λ t

3.20
Δt = 12/30 = .4 cartons per minute or 150 / hr; λ = p/ Δt = .005/.4 = .0125 failures/min

R(60) = e-.0125 (60) = .4724

3.21 With MTTF = 1772.46, the following bounds were obtained:

time lower bnd R(t) upper bnd ω

100 .9451 ..9975 1 -
200 .8933 .9777 1 -
500 .7542 .9394 1 -

m
1000 .5688 .7788 1 -
2000 0 .3679 .7805 .0001239

o
5000 0 .00193 .0732 .000522884
10000 0 1.3888 x 10-11 .00362 .000562146

z .c
− λT0
1 ∞ 1 ∞ e 1
3.22 MTTF(T0) = − λ T0
e − λt ' dt ' = − λ T0
e − λt ' = − λT0
=
e T0 −λ e T λe λ

ie
0

3.23

t
FY (t ) = ∫ fY (t ) dt = ∫
t
λ k x k −1e− λ x
dx h
o o
Γ (k )
c
r λ ( k − 1) ! x

e
k −1− r
λ x e k −1 − λ x
e − λ x k −1
k k

Since ∫ Γ (k )
dx = ∑
Γ ( k ) r =0
( − 1)
( k − 1 − r )!( −λ )
r +1

e − λ x ( k − 1) ! k −1 ( −1) λ k −1− r x k −1− r

r
T k −1
(λ x) (λ x)
k −1− r
k −1
i

∑
e ∑ ∑
−λ x −λ x
= = − e = − e
( k − 1)! r =0 ( −1)r +1 ( k − 1 − r )! r =0 ( k − 1 − r )! i =0 i!
t

∫
λ k x k −1e− λ x c ⎡ − λ x k −1 ( λ x )i ⎤
dx = ⎢ −e ∑ ⎥ = 1− e ∑
− λt
t
k −1
( λt )
i

A
Then
o
Γ (k ) ⎢⎣ i =0 i ! ⎥⎦ i =0 i!
0

3.24 λ = 125/4,120,000 = 3.034 x 10-5

3-5
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 12,000(125)
−
(a) R(12, 000) = e 4,120,000
= .695
12, 000(125)
(b) t0.90 = − ( ln 0.90 ) = 3473
4,120, 000
(c) MTTF = 1/ λ = 32,960; tmed = .69315 ( 32,960 ) = 22,846
−1.2136 x 10−4 (12,000 )
(d ) λs = 4λ = 1.2136 x 10−4 ; R (12, 000) = e = .2331
or (.695 ) = .2331
4

e − λst ( λs t )
i
2
(e) λs = 8λ ; R2 (12,360 ) = ∑ = e .00024272(12,360) [1 + 3 + 9 / 2] = .423
−

i =0 i!

3.25 The number of failures during time t is Poisson with mean .001t = 3.65.
e −3.65 ( 3.65 )
n
8
R8 (t ) = ∑ = .9873
n =0 n!
Therefore: 9 spares are needed

m
e −3.65 ( 3.65 )
n
9
R9 (t ) = ∑ = .9956

o
n=0 n!

.c
3.26
System times in
operating hours

ie
failure rate = 0.000003974
MTTF = 251,635.632
Median = 174,421.238

h
Std Deviation = 251,635.632
R(8760) = 0.9658

c
Connectors as a group has the smallest reliability- R(8760) = .983.

e
3.27 R(t) = 1-(1-exp(-λt))^3 = 3exp(-λt) - 3exp(-2λt) + exp(-3λt)

T
R(t) = 3exp(-.015t) - 3exp(-.03t) + exp(-.045t)

e
R(100) = .5311
MTTF = 11/(6λ) = 11/.090 = 122 days

c
Reliability without redundancy => R(100) = exp(-.015*100) = .2231

A
3.28 (a) R(t) = exp[- .002(t-100)] = .80 => t =100 - ln(.80)/.002 = 221 days
Let X = a random variable, the number of failed bulbs; E[X] = np = 2
(b) From the binomial distribution with p = .2 and N = 10; Pr(x > 4) = .033.

3-6
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