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 CHAPTER 2

2.1
1 1
a) R(100 ) = =.91 and R(1000) = =.5
(.001)(100) + 1 (.001)(1000 ) + 1
− dR( t ) 1 − d ((.001t + 1)−1 ) 1
b) λ ( t ) = ⋅ = ⋅ −1
=.001(.001t + 1)−2 ⋅ (.001t + 1)
dt R( t ) dt (.001t + 1)
.001(.001t + 1) .001
= =
(.001t + 1) 2
.001t + 1
λ ( t ) is decreasing because λ ( t ) goes to zero as t goes to infinity.

2.2

a) R( t ) = e z
− 0t λ ( t ')dt '
=e z
−.4 0t t 'dt '
= e −.2t ' |t = e −.2t
2

0
2

− .2(1/12 )2
F (1 / 12) = 1 − R(1 / 12) = 1 − e =.00139

b) R( t ) = e −.2 t =.95
2
→ −.2t 2 = ln(.95) → t=
− ln(.95)
=.506 yrs m
o
.2
2.3

z z
.c
100 100
a) R( t ) = f ( t ′ )dt ′ = .01dt ′ =.01t ′ 100
t =.01(100 − t ) = 1−.01t 0 ≤ t ≤ 100
t t

− dR( t ) 1

ie
f (t ) .01
b) λ ( t ) = ⋅ = = 0 ≤ t ≤ 100
dt R( t ) R( t ) 1−.01t
c) MTTF = R( t )dt = z 100
z 100
(1−.01t )dt = t 100
0 −.005t 0 = 100−.005(100 ) = 50 days
2 100 2

h
0 0

d) σ = 2
z 100 2
t f ( t )dt − ( MTTF )2 =.01 0 t 2 dt − 502 =.033 t 3 z100 100
− 502 = 8333
. (days )2

c
0 0

σ = σ 2 = 28.9 days
e) R( tmedian ) = 1−.01tmedian =.5 →
e .01tmedian =.5 → tmedian = 50 days

2.4
T
ez LM 1 t' OP 100

a) R( t ) = z1000 3
f ( t ′ )dt ′ = 9
1000
t ′ 2 dt ′ =
N10 Q
3

ch
t t 9
10 t

c
3
1 t

A
= 9
10003 − t 3 = 1 − 9 0 ≤ t ≤ 1000 hrs
10 10
106 1
F (100) = 1 − R(100) = 1 − (1 − 1003 / 109 ) = 9
= 3
10 10

z
b) MTTF = t ⋅ f ( t ) dt =
1000

0
3
3
109 z
0
1000
t 3dt =
3
10 ⋅ 4
3
9
t4
1000

0
=
3
10 ⋅ 4
9
10004 − 0 = 750 hrs

t t
c) R( t ) = 1 − =.99 → =.01 → t = 3 107 = 215.443 hrs
109 109

2.5

2-1
 a) R(50) = e- .001(50)
=.8
− (.001t )1/ 2
− d (e ) 1 1 1 .0005
b) λ ( t ) = ⋅ == (.001t )−1/ 2 (.001)e − (.001t ) ⋅ − (.001t )1/ 2 =
1/ 2

e − (.001t )
1/ 2
dt 2 e .001t
λ ( t ) is decreasing because λ ( t ) goes to zero as t goes to infinity.
R(T0 + t ) R(50 + 10) R( 60) e − .001( 60 )
c) R( t / T0 ) = → R(50 / 10) = = = =.865
R(T0 ) R(10) R(10) e− .001(10)

R(t + 10) e − .001( t +10)

d) R (t / 10) = = − .001(10) =.95
R(10) e
[ ln .859596]
2
− .001( t +10) − .001(10)
e = .95e = .859596 → t= − 10 = 12.9 hrs
.001
2.6
a) R( t ) = z 10

t z 10
f ( t ′ )dt ′ = (.2−.02t ′ )dt ′ =.2 t ′
t
10
t
−.01 t ′ 2
10

= ( 2−.2t ) − (1−.01t ) = 1−.2t +.01t 0 ≤ t ≤ 10 yrs 2 2

m
f (t ) .2 −.02t .2(1−.1t ) .2
λ (t ) = = = =
R(t ) 1−.2t +.01t 2
(1−.1t ) 2
1−.1t
λ ( 0) =.2 and λ ( t → 10) = ∞ so the hazard rate is, in fact, increasing.

z z o
.c
10 10 10 10
b) MTTF = R(t ) = (1−.2t +.01t 2 )dt = t −.1 t 2 +.00333 t 3 = 10 − 10 + 3.33 = 3.33 yrs
10
0 0 0 0 0

c) R( tmedian ) = 1−.2tmed +.01t 2

=.5 → .01t 2
−.2tmed +.5 = 0

ie
med med

.2 ± ( −.2 )2 − 4(.01)(.5) .2±.1414

t( median ) = = = 17.07,2.93
2(.01) 2(.01)
t( median ) is 2.93 years. (17.07 is outside range of values for t.)
h
c
d) f ( t mod e ) = MAX [ f ( t )]
0≤ t ≤10
f(t) is linearly decreasing: f(0) = .2 and f(10)=0. Therefore, the mode occurs at t=0 yr.

z ze L.2t OP
3 10
.02t 4
=M
10 10
e) σ = t f (t )dt − MTTF = t (.2 −.02t )dt − 3.33 − − 3.332

T
2 2 2 2 2
0 0
N3 4 Q 0

= (66.67 − 50) − 0 − 1109

. = 558
e → σ = σ = 558
. = 2.36 yrs
2
.

2.7
c
A
100 100
a) R(1) = = =.826
(1 + 10) 2
121
L 200(t ′ + 10) OP = 0 − FG −100 IJ = 100
zt
∞
z
R( t ) = f ( t ′ )dt ′ = 200 ( t ′ + 10) dt ′ = M
N −2
∞

t
−3
−2 ∞

tQ H (t + 10) K (t + 10)
2 2

L (t + 10) OP = L −100 O = 0 − ( −10) = 10 yrs

z z 0
∞
b) MTTF = R( t )dt = 100 ( t + 10) dt = 100M
N −1
∞

0
−2
−1 ∞

Q MN t + 10 PQ
0
∞

2-2
Click to access Free Study
Material for your Course »
 100 100 100
c) R( t ) = =.95 → →t + 10 =
t= − 10 =.26 yrs
( t + 10)2 .95 .95
d) The failure rate is DFR because λ ( 0) =.2 and λ ( t → ∞ ) = 0 .
200
f ( t ) ( t + 10 )3 200( t + 10 )2 2
λ (t ) = = = =
R( t ) 100 100( t + 10 )3
t + 10
(t + 10 ) 2

e) A one year burn-in period will improve the reliability because the failure rate is decreasing.
100
R(1 + 1) R( 2) ( 2 + 10)2 112
R(1 / 1) = = = = 2 =.84
R(1) R(1) 100 12
(1 + 10)2

2.8 F ( t ) = z
t
f ( t ′ )dt ′ = z t 1 LM OP
1
dt ′ = t ′
t
t
= , 0≤t ≤b
0 0
b bN Q 0 b
t b−t
R( t ) = 1 − F ( t ) = 1 − =

m
b b
1

o
f (t ) b 1
λ(t ) = = b = = , IFR
R( t ) b − t b( b − t ) b − t

.c
b
LM OP LMF b I OP
z z
b
b−t t2 b2 2b 2 − b 2 b
1 1
MNGH JK PQ
b b
MTTF = R( t )dt = dt = bt − = − −0 = =

ie
2
0 0 b b 2 N Q 0
b 2 2b 2
b − tmed 1
R( tmedian ) = = b

h
b 2
There is no mode because all failure times are equally likely.

H Kc
2
z
σ = t f ( t )dt − MTTF =
b 2 2
z
b t2
dt −
b
2 3
O
FG IJ = LM t P − b = b − b = b → σ =
b 2 2 2 2
b
N 3b Q 4 3 4 12
e
0 0
b 2 0
12

2.9
T
e
t t 20 − t 1
F (t ) =
= ; R( t ) = ; λ(t ) =
b 20 20 20 − t
MTTF =
20
c
= 10 yrs; tmedian =
20
= 10 yrs; σ =
20
= 5.77 yrs

A
2 2 12

2.10
a) Wear-out is indicated by an increasing failure rate.
− dR( t ) 1 − d (1 − t / t0 )2 1 1
λ (t ) = ⋅ = ⋅ = [−2(1 − t / t0 )( −1 / t0 )] ⋅
dt R( t ) dt (1 − t / t0 ) 2
(1 − t / t0 )2
2 2 2
= = Since λ ( 0) = and λ ( t → t0 ) = ∞, λ ( t ) is IFR.
t0 (1 − t / t0 ) t0 − t t0

2-3
 F t I LF t I F −t IJ OP
z z
2 3 t0

R( t )dt = G1 − J dt = MG1 − J G
t0 t0
b) MTTF =
H t K MNH t K H 3 K PQ
0
0 0
0 0
0

− t0 LMF t I 3
OP t
=
MNGH t JK
− − −
PQ = 3
0 3 0
1 (1 0 )
3 0

c) R( t ) = (1 − t / 2000 )2 =.90 → t = 2000(1 − .9 ) = 102.63 hrs

2.11
R(T0 + t ) ( t + T0 + 1)−3/ 2
R( t / T0 ) = = where t = 2, T0 =.5
R(T0 ) (T0 + 1)−3/ 2
R( 2.5) (35 . )−3/ 2
R( 2/.5) = = =.28
R(.5) (15 . )−3/ 2
.28-.19
An improvement of = 47% is obtained with a 6 month burn - in.
.19

2.12
z t
− λ ( t ′ ) dt ′ z t
− at ′dt ′
t
m
o
− a t ′2 / 2
= e − at
2
R( t ) = e 0
=e 0
=e 0
/2
a > 0 and t ≥ 0
d ( e − at
2
/2

.c
dR( t ) )
− e − at ( − at ) = ate − at
2 2
f (t ) = − =− /2 /2
dt dt
R( t median ) = e − ( atmed )/ 2 =.5
2

ie
2
at med
− = ln(.5)
2

h
−2 ln(.5) 118 .
t median = =
a a
The mode is found by setting the first derivative of f(t) equal to 0 and solving for t.
c
e
df ( t ) d ( e − ( atmed )/ 2 )
2

= a[te − at / 2 ( − at ) + e − at / 2 ] = e − at / 2 [− at 2 + 1] = 0
2 2 2
=
dt dt
[− at + 1] = 0
T
2

e
t mod e = 1 / a

2.13 c
AFR =
t2 − t1 A
ln R( t1 ) − ln R( t2 ) ln(1 − t13 / 109 ) − ln(1 − t23 / 109 )
=
t2 − t1
where t1 = 0 and t 2 = 500

ln(1) − ln(1 − 5003 / 109 ) 0 − ln(.875)

= = =.000267 failures / hr
500 − 0 500

2.14
L (1+.05t ′ ) OP
R( t ) =.1 z t
∞
(1+.05t ′ ) −3
dt ′ =.1M
N −2(.05) Q
−2 ∞

t
d
= 0 − −(1+.05t )−2 = (1+.05t )−2 i
2-4
 R(10 + 1) (1+.05(11))−2
R(10 / 1) = = =.459
R(1) (1+.05(1))−2
L (1+.05t ) OP
MTTFbefore = R( t )dt = z 0
∞
z 0
∞
(1+.05t ) −2
dt = M
N −.05 Q
−1 ∞

0
= 0− −
FG
H
1
.05
= 20
IJ
K
MTTFafter = z ∞

T0
R(t / T0 )dt =
1
R (T0 ) z
T0
∞
R (t )dt =
1
(1+.05(1)) −2 z
1
∞
(1+.05t ) −2 dt

L (1+.05t ) OP L (105 OP = 21
z −1 ∞ 2
∞ . )
= (105
. ) 2
(1+.05t ) −2
. ) M
dt = (105 2
= 0 − M−
1
N −(.05) Q 1 N .05(1+.05(1)) Q
2.15
λ ( t ) is decreasing.
R(t) is decreasing as R(0) = 1 and R( ∞ ) = 0.
f(t) = λ (t)R(t).
Since λ ( t ) and R( t ) are decreasing, f( t ) is decreasing and the mode must occur at t = 0.

m
2.16
z t
− λ ( t ′ ) dt ′ −a z t
et ′ dt ′ − a et ′
t
− a et −1 a 1− et

o
R( t ) = e 0
=e 0
=e 0
=e =e
f ( t ) = λ ( t ) R( t ) = ( ae t )( e a − ae ) = ( ae t )( e a )( e − ae ) = ae( t + a −ae )
t t t

2.17 Using ∫ ( x + c) dx =
( x + c) n +1
, n ≠1 ;
n dx
∫ x + c = ln ( x + c ) .c
ie
n +1
−1 ∞
∞ a a ( t '+ a ) a 10
(a) R (t ) = ∫ dt ' = = ; R (t ) =

h
; R(8) = .55
( t '+ a ) −1 t+a t + 10
t 2
t

c
10 10
(b) R (t ) = = .95; t = − 10 = .526 yr = 6.3 mo.
t + 10 .95

e
T
(c) R(5|5) = .75 R(10) / R(5) = (10/20) / (10/15) = 15/20 = .75

e
(d) F(90 days) = 1 - 10 / (10 + .2465) = .024
a
(t + a )
c
2
1
(e) λ (t ) = =

A
a t+a
(t + a )
(f) R(t) = .5 = a / (t + a) or tmed = (a / .5) – a = 2a –a = a

∞
a ∞
(g) MTTF = ∫ t + a dt = a ln(t + a)
0
0
→ ∞ ; does not exist

2-5
Click to access Free Study
Material for your Course »
2.18
ka k k
(a ) f (t ) = ; (b) λ (t ) = → DFR
(t + a )
k +1
t+a
− k +1 ∞
∞ ak ak (t + a ) − a k a − k +1 a
(c) MTTF = ∫ dt = = =
(t + a ) −k + 1 −k + 1 k −1
0 k
0

⎛ 1 ⎞
(d )tmed = a ⎜⎜ k − 1⎟⎟
⎝ .5 ⎠
2.19
dR(t ) 3t 2
(a ) f (t ) = = 3 , 0≤t ≤k
dt k
3t ⎛ t 3 ⎞
2
3t 2
(b) λ (t ) = 3 / ⎜1 − 3 ⎟ = 3 3
k ⎝ k ⎠ k −t
k
k 3t 3 3t 4 3
(c) MTTF = ∫ 3
dt = 3
= k
0 k 4k 0 4
t3
(d ) 1 − 3 = .5 or tmed = k 3 .5 = .7937 k m
k
o
.c
2.20 rewrite f(t) = .003(10-t)2
(a) R(t) = .001(10 – t)3 ; R(1) = .729
(b) .001(10-t)3 = .90; solving for t = 10 – (.9/.001)1/3 = .345 yr.

ie
(c) λ(t) = f(t) /R(t) = 3/(10-t); IFR
10
(d) MTTF = R (t ) dt = .001(10 − t ) dt = 2.5 yr. ; R (2.5) = .422
∫ ∫
3

0
(e) F(1/12) = .02479; R(11/12 | 1/12) = .729/.9752 = .7475 h
c
e
a
⎛ 2t t 2 ⎞ a
t2 t3
2.21 (a) MTTF = ∫ ⎜1 − + 2 ⎟ dt = t − + 2 = a/3
0⎝
a a ⎠

T
a 3a 0

⎛ 2t t ⎞ 2

e
⎜1 − + 2 ⎟ = .5; t − 2at + .5a = 0
2 2

(b)
⎝ a a ⎠

t=
2a ± 4 a 2 − 2a 2
=a±
a 2
c
= a (1 ± .7071) = .293a

A
2 2
Why not the positive root?

(c) R(a/3) = 4/9 = .444

2 / a − 2t / a 2 2(a − t ) 2
(d) λ (t ) = = = ; IFR
1 − 2t / a − 2t / a (a − t ) (a − t )
2 2 2

(e) R(1) = .81; R(1|1) = R(2) /R(1) = .64 / .81 = .79

2.22 (a) R(t) = 1 - .000064t3 ; R(15) = .784; (b) F(10) – F(2) = .000064(1000 - 8) = .063488

2-6
 .000064t 3 = .5
(c)
tmed = 3 .5 / .000064 = 19.8425 yr.

(d) λ(t) = .000192t2 / (1 - .000064t3) ; IFR

25
(e) MTTF = ∫ (1 − .000064t )dt = [t − .000016t 4 ]025 = 25 − .000016(25) 4 = 18.75 yr.
3

0
(f) R(15) / R(10) = .784 / .936 = .8376

25
1 1
( t − .000016t 4 )
25
MTTF (10) = ∫
R(10) 10
(1 − .000064t 3 )dt =
.936 10
(g)
⎡15 − .000016 ( 254 − 104 ) ⎤ = 9.52 yr
1
= ⎣ ⎦
.936
20
1 1
2.23 MTTF (10) = ∫ (1 − .000125t 3 )dt = (5.3125) = 6.07 yr.

m
R(10) 10 .875
∞

o
∞
225 225 225
2.24 MTTF = ∫ ( t + 15) 2
dt =
−1( t + 15 )
=
(15 )
= 15 yr.

.c
0 0
∞
1 ⎛ ⎞
∞
1 225 225 1
MTTF (10) = ∫ dt = ⎜⎜ ⎟ = [ 0 + 9] = 25 yr

ie
R(10) 10 ( t + 15 ) 2
.36 ⎝ −1( t + 15) ) ⎟⎠ .36
10
λ(t) = 2 / (t+15) ; DFR

2.25
h
c
⎡ t ⎤
R (t ) = exp ⎢ − ∫ (1 + .5t '+ 10 / t ') dt '⎥ = exp[−(t + .25t 2 + 10 ln t − 1.25)]

e
⎣ 1 ⎦
dR(t )
= (1 + .5t + 10 / t ) exp[−(t + .25t 2 + 10 ln t − 1.25)]
T
f (t ) = −
dt

e
c
A

2-7
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