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To Probability: Engineering Data Analysis

This document discusses probability and introduces key concepts such as: 1. Probability is a measure of the likelihood of a random event occurring and can be calculated in different ways. 2. A probability experiment is any process that can be repeated with uncertain outcomes, and the sample space lists all possible outcomes. 3. Events are collections of outcomes, and the probability of an event is the likelihood it will occur based on the experiment. If outcomes are equally likely, probability can be calculated as the number of favorable outcomes over the total number of outcomes.

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165 views24 pages

To Probability: Engineering Data Analysis

This document discusses probability and introduces key concepts such as: 1. Probability is a measure of the likelihood of a random event occurring and can be calculated in different ways. 2. A probability experiment is any process that can be repeated with uncertain outcomes, and the sample space lists all possible outcomes. 3. Events are collections of outcomes, and the probability of an event is the likelihood it will occur based on the experiment. If outcomes are equally likely, probability can be calculated as the number of favorable outcomes over the total number of outcomes.

Uploaded by

EunnicePanaligan
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Engineering Data Analysis

Introduction
to Probability
MPS Department | FEU Institute of Technology
Subtopic 2
OBJECTIVES

 Calculate probability and conditional probability of events with ease


and accuracy
Subtopic 2
Introduction to
Probability
 Probability Terms
 Sample Space and Relationships among
Events
Probability is a measure of the likelihood of a random
phenomenon or chance behavior.

Example:
Simulate flipping a coin 100 times. Plot the proportion of heads
against the number of flips. Repeat the simulation.
Probability deals with experiments that yield random short-term
results or outcomes, yet reveal long-term predictability.
The long-term proportion with which a certain outcome is
observed is the probability of that outcome.
As the number of repetitions of a probability experiment increases,
the proportion with which a certain outcome is observed gets
closer to the probability of the outcome.
In probability, an experiment is any process that can
be repeated in which the results are uncertain.

A simple event is any single outcome from a


probability experiment. Each simple event is denoted
ei .
• The sample space, S, of a probability experiment is the collection
of all possible simple events. In other words, the sample space is
a list of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.
• An event is any collection of outcomes from a probability
experiment. An event may consist of one or more simple events.
Events are denoted using capital letters such as E.
EXAMPLE Identifying Events and the Sample Space of a
Probability Experiment

Consider the probability experiment of having two children.

(a) Identify the simple events of the probability experiment.


(b) Determine the sample space.
(c) Define the event E = “have one boy”.
The probability of an event, denoted P(E), is the
likelihood of that event occurring.
1.The probability of any event E, P(E), must be between 0 and 1
inclusive. That is,
0 < P(E) < 1

2. If an event is impossible, the probability of the event is 0.


3. If an event is a certainty, the probability of the event is 1.
4. If S = {e1, e2, …, en}, then

P(e1) + P(e2) + … + P(en) = 1


An unusual event is an event that has a low probability of
occurring, or unlikely to happen.
Unless otherwise stated in a problem, we will say that an event is
unusual if its probability is less than 0.05.
Three methods for determining the probability of an event:
1. the classical method
2. the empirical method
3.the subjective method
The classical method of computing probabilities requires equally
likely outcomes.
An experiment is said to have equally likely outcomes when
each simple event has the same probability of occurring.
If an experiment has n equally likely simple events and if the
number of ways that an event E can occur is m, then the
probability of E, P(E), is

So, if S is the sample space of this experiment, then


Suppose a “fun size” bag of M&Ms contains 9 brown candies, 6
yellow candies, 7 red candies, 4 orange candies, 2 blue
candies, and 2 green candies. Suppose that a candy is
randomly selected.
(a) What is the probability that it is brown?
(b) What is the probability that it is blue?
(c) Comment on the likelihood of the candy being brown versus
blue.
The probability of an event E is approximately the number of
times event E is observed divided by the number of repetitions
of the experiment.
The following data represent the number of homes with
various types of home heating fuels based on a survey of
1,000 homes.
(a) Approximate the probability that a randomly selected
home uses electricity as its home heating fuel.
(b) Would it be unusual to select a home that uses coal or
coke as its home heating fuel?
Simulate throwing a 6-sided die 100 times. Approximate
the probability of rolling a 4. How does this compare to the
classical probability?
Subjective probabilities are probabilities obtained
based upon an educated guess.
For example, there is a 40% chance of rain
tomorrow.
Elementary Statistics by Bluman

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