Engineering Data Analysis

Probability
MPS Department | FEU Institute of Technology
Engineering Data Analysis

Counting
Techniques
MPS Department | FEU Institute of Technology
 Subtopic 1
OBJECTIVES

 Construct a sample space out of a given experiment

 Associate specific counting techniques to certain types of
experiment
 Subtopic 1
Counting Techniques

 Multiplication Rule
 Permutation
 Combination
• A way to figure out the number of outcomes in a probability
problem. Basically, you multiply events together to get the total
number of outcomes.
• If one event can occur m ways, a second event in n ways and a third
event in r, then the three events can occur in m x n x r ways
Erin has 5 tops, 6 skirts and 4 caps from which to choose an outfit. In how
many ways can she select one top, one skirt, and one cap?

Ans. 120 ways

The standard four-wheel vehicle plates in the Philippines contains 3 letters
followed by four digits. How many possible plates can be made using this
format?
Ans. 175,760,000 ways

Comparing to the previous format, how many plates have been added?
Ans. 158,184,000
• Jim has 6 different books. Find the number of orders in which the 6
books can be arranged on a shelf.
• Ans. 720 ways
• If the shelf has room for only 3 books, find the number of ways 3 of the
books can be arranged.
• Ans. 120 ways
• If no letter can be used more than once, how many permutations of the
first three letters of the alphabet?
• Ans. 6 ways
• How many permutations for the first 5 letters taken 3 at a time?
• Ans. 60 ways
In how many ways can you arranged the letters from the word
“MISSISSIPPI”?

Ans. 34650 ways

 • To calculate the number of ways n
objects can be arranged in a circle, we fix
a b the position of one object, so the
remaining (n-1) objects can be arranged
as if they were in a straight line.
e c
d

(n-1)!
At a dinner party 6 men and 6 women sit at a round table. How many ways
can they sit if
a. There are no restrictions
b. Men and women alternate
c. Ted and Carol must sit together
d. Bob, Ted and Carol must sit together
a. 39916800 ways
b. 86400
c. 7257600
d. 2177280
Mary wants to join a book club that offers a choice of 10 new books each
month. If Mary wants to buy 2 books, find the number of different pairs
she can buy.
Ans. 45

If Mary wants 7 books, how many sets can she buy?

Ans. 120
A group of 12 people are forming a committee. How many different 4-
person committees can be formed?

Ans. 495 ways

Elementary Statistics by Bluman
 Engineering Data Analysis

Introduction
to Probability
MPS Department | FEU Institute of Technology
 Subtopic 2
OBJECTIVES

 Calculate probability and conditional probability of events with ease

and accuracy
 Subtopic 2
Introduction to
Probability
 Probability Terms
 Sample Space and Relationships among
Events
Probability is a measure of the likelihood of a random
phenomenon or chance behavior.

Example:
Simulate flipping a coin 100 times. Plot the proportion of heads
against the number of flips. Repeat the simulation.
Probability deals with experiments that yield random short-term
results or outcomes, yet reveal long-term predictability.
The long-term proportion with which a certain outcome is
observed is the probability of that outcome.
As the number of repetitions of a probability experiment increases,
the proportion with which a certain outcome is observed gets
closer to the probability of the outcome.
In probability, an experiment is any process that can
be repeated in which the results are uncertain.

A simple event is any single outcome from a

probability experiment. Each simple event is denoted
ei .
• The sample space, S, of a probability experiment is the collection
of all possible simple events. In other words, the sample space is
a list of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.
• An event is any collection of outcomes from a probability
experiment. An event may consist of one or more simple events.
Events are denoted using capital letters such as E.
EXAMPLE Identifying Events and the Sample Space of a
Probability Experiment

Consider the probability experiment of having two children.

(a) Identify the simple events of the probability experiment.

(b) Determine the sample space.
(c) Define the event E = “have one boy”.
The probability of an event, denoted P(E), is the
likelihood of that event occurring.
1.The probability of any event E, P(E), must be between 0 and 1
inclusive. That is,
0 < P(E) < 1

2. If an event is impossible, the probability of the event is 0.

3. If an event is a certainty, the probability of the event is 1.
4. If S = {e1, e2, …, en}, then

P(e1) + P(e2) + … + P(en) = 1

An unusual event is an event that has a low probability of
occurring, or unlikely to happen.
Unless otherwise stated in a problem, we will say that an event is
unusual if its probability is less than 0.05.
Three methods for determining the probability of an event:
1. the classical method
2. the empirical method
3.the subjective method
The classical method of computing probabilities requires equally
likely outcomes.
An experiment is said to have equally likely outcomes when
each simple event has the same probability of occurring.
If an experiment has n equally likely simple events and if the
number of ways that an event E can occur is m, then the
probability of E, P(E), is

So, if S is the sample space of this experiment, then

Suppose a “fun size” bag of M&Ms contains 9 brown candies, 6
yellow candies, 7 red candies, 4 orange candies, 2 blue
candies, and 2 green candies. Suppose that a candy is
randomly selected.
(a) What is the probability that it is brown?
(b) What is the probability that it is blue?
(c) Comment on the likelihood of the candy being brown versus
blue.
The probability of an event E is approximately the number of
times event E is observed divided by the number of repetitions
of the experiment.
The following data represent the number of homes with
various types of home heating fuels based on a survey of
1,000 homes.
(a) Approximate the probability that a randomly selected
home uses electricity as its home heating fuel.
(b) Would it be unusual to select a home that uses coal or
coke as its home heating fuel?
Simulate throwing a 6-sided die 100 times. Approximate
the probability of rolling a 4. How does this compare to the
classical probability?
Subjective probabilities are probabilities obtained
based upon an educated guess.
For example, there is a 40% chance of rain
tomorrow.
Elementary Statistics by Bluman
 Engineering Data Analysis

Introduction
to Probability
MPS Department | FEU Institute of Technology
 Subtopic 2
OBJECTIVES

 Calculate probability and conditional probability of events with ease

and accuracy
 Subtopic 2
Introduction to
Probability
 Probability Terms
 Sample Space and Relationships among
Events
Probability is a measure of the likelihood of a random
phenomenon or chance behavior.

Example:
Simulate flipping a coin 100 times. Plot the proportion of heads
against the number of flips. Repeat the simulation.
Probability deals with experiments that yield random short-term
results or outcomes, yet reveal long-term predictability.
The long-term proportion with which a certain outcome is
observed is the probability of that outcome.
As the number of repetitions of a probability experiment increases,
the proportion with which a certain outcome is observed gets
closer to the probability of the outcome.
In probability, an experiment is any process that can
be repeated in which the results are uncertain.

A simple event is any single outcome from a

probability experiment. Each simple event is denoted
ei .
• The sample space, S, of a probability experiment is the collection
of all possible simple events. In other words, the sample space is
a list of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.
• An event is any collection of outcomes from a probability
experiment. An event may consist of one or more simple events.
Events are denoted using capital letters such as E.
EXAMPLE Identifying Events and the Sample Space of a
Probability Experiment

Consider the probability experiment of having two children.

(a) Identify the simple events of the probability experiment.

(b) Determine the sample space.
(c) Define the event E = “have one boy”.
The probability of an event, denoted P(E), is the
likelihood of that event occurring.
1.The probability of any event E, P(E), must be between 0 and 1
inclusive. That is,
0 < P(E) < 1

2. If an event is impossible, the probability of the event is 0.

3. If an event is a certainty, the probability of the event is 1.
4. If S = {e1, e2, …, en}, then

P(e1) + P(e2) + … + P(en) = 1

An unusual event is an event that has a low probability of
occurring, or unlikely to happen.
Unless otherwise stated in a problem, we will say that an event is
unusual if its probability is less than 0.05.
Three methods for determining the probability of an event:
1. the classical method
2. the empirical method
3.the subjective method
The classical method of computing probabilities requires equally
likely outcomes.
An experiment is said to have equally likely outcomes when
each simple event has the same probability of occurring.
If an experiment has n equally likely simple events and if the
number of ways that an event E can occur is m, then the
probability of E, P(E), is

So, if S is the sample space of this experiment, then

Suppose a “fun size” bag of M&Ms contains 9 brown candies, 6
yellow candies, 7 red candies, 4 orange candies, 2 blue
candies, and 2 green candies. Suppose that a candy is
randomly selected.
(a) What is the probability that it is brown?
(b) What is the probability that it is blue?
(c) Comment on the likelihood of the candy being brown versus
blue.
The probability of an event E is approximately the number of
times event E is observed divided by the number of repetitions
of the experiment.
The following data represent the number of homes with
various types of home heating fuels based on a survey of
1,000 homes.
(a) Approximate the probability that a randomly selected
home uses electricity as its home heating fuel.
(b) Would it be unusual to select a home that uses coal or
coke as its home heating fuel?
Simulate throwing a 6-sided die 100 times. Approximate
the probability of rolling a 4. How does this compare to the
classical probability?
Subjective probabilities are probabilities obtained
based upon an educated guess.
For example, there is a 40% chance of rain
tomorrow.
Elementary Statistics by Bluman
Engineering Data Analysis

Rules of
Probability
MPS Department | FEU Institute of Technology
 Subtopic 3
OBJECTIVES

 Apply the rules of probability in solving word

problems
 Subtopic 3
Rules of Probability

 Counting Rules Useful in Probability

 Rules of Probability
Let E and F be two events.
E and F is the event consisting of simple events that
belong to both E and F.
E or F is the event consisting of simple events that belong
to either E or F or both.
For any two events E and F,

P(E or F) = P(E) + P(F) – P(E and F)

EXAMPLE Illustrating the Addition Rule
Suppose that a pair of fair dice are thrown.
a) Let E=“rolling a seven”, compute the probability of rolling a seven, i.e.,
P(E).
b) Let E=“rolling a two ” (called ‘snake eyes’), compute the probability of
rolling “snake eyes”, i.e., P(E).
c) Let E = “the first die is a two” and let F = “the sum of the dice is less than
or equal to 5”. Find P(E or F) directly by counting the number of ways E
or F could occur and dividing this result by the number of possible
outcomes.
https://slideplayer.com/slide/7099764/
Answer:
a) P(E) = N(E)/N(S) = 6/36 = 1/6
b) 1/6
c) N(E) = 6, N(F)=4+3+2+1 =10,
N(E and F) =3 , so N(E or F) =13
Venn diagrams represent events as circles enclosed in a
rectangle. The rectangle represents the sample space and each
circle represents an event.
http://www.cwladis.com/math100/Lecture4Sets.htm
If events E and F have no simple events in common
or cannot occur simultaneously, they are said to be
disjoint or mutually exclusive.
If E and F are mutually exclusive events, then

P(E or F) = P(E) + P(F)

In general, if E, F, G, … are mutually exclusive events, then

P(E or F or G or …) = P(E) + P(F) + P(G) + …

Events E and F are Events E, F and G are
Mutually Exclusive Mutually Exclusive
http://www.cwladis.com/math100/Lecture4Sets.htm
 EXAMPLE Using the Addition Rule

The following data represent the language spoken at home by age for
residents of San Francisco County, CA between the ages of 5 and 64
years.

Source: United States Census Bureau, 2000 Supplementary Survey

(a) What is the probability a randomly selected resident of
San Francisco County between 5 and 64 years speaks
English only at home?
(b) What is the probability a randomly selected resident of
San Francisco between 5 and 64 years is 5 - 17 years old?
(c ) What is the probability a randomly selected resident of
San Francisco between 5 and 64 years is 5 - 17 years old
or speaks English only at home?
Let S denote the sample space of a probability experiment
and let E denote an event. The complement of 𝐸 denoted by
𝐸 is all simple events in the sample space S that are not
simple events in the event E.
EXAMPLE Illustrating the Complement Rule

According to the American Veterinary Medical Association,

31.6% of American households own a dog. What is the
probability that a randomly selected household does not
own a dog?
E= Own a dog
P(E) =31.6%

P( E )  1  P( E )
EXAMPLE Illustrating the Complement Rule

The data on the following page represent the travel time to

work for residents of Hartford County, CT.
(a) What is the probability a randomly selected resident has
a travel time of 90 or more minutes?
(b) What is the probability a randomly selected resident has
a travel time less than 90 minutes?
Source: United States Census Bureau, 2000 Supplementary Survey
The Multiplication Rule
EXAMPLE Illustrating the Multiplication Rule

Suppose a jar has 2 yellow M&Ms, 1 green M&M, 2 brown

M&Ms, and 1 blue M&Ms. Suppose that two M&Ms are
randomly selected. Use a tree diagram to compute the
probability that the first M&M selected is brown and the
second is blue.
NOTE: Let the first yellow M&M be Y1, the second yellow
M&M be Y2, the green M&M be G, and so on.
The notation P(F | E) is read “the probability of
event F given event E”. It is the probability of an
event F given the occurrence of the event E.
 Conditional probability for any two events, A and B, is

P(A I B)
P( A \ B) 
P(B)
P (A given B) = P (A and B) / P (B)
where, P (B) is not equal to zero


Conditional probability for independent events, A and B, is

P (A | B) = P (A), and
P (B |A) = P (B)
EXAMPLE Using the Multiplication Rule

The probability that a randomly selected murder victim was male

is 0.7515. The probability that a randomly selected murder victim
was less than 18 years old given that he was male was 0.1020.
What is the probability that a randomly selected murder victim is
male and is less than 18 years old?
Data based on information obtained from the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation.

P(male and <18)=p(<18)*P(male|<18)

P(male and <18)=p(male)*P(<18|male)
=0.7515*0.1020=0.076653
Two events E and F are independent if the occurrence of event
E in a probability experiment does not affect the probability of
event F. Two events are dependent if the occurrence of event
E in a probability experiment affects the probability of event F.
Two events E and F are independent if and only if

P(F | E) = P(F) or P(E | F) = P(E)

EXAMPLE Illustrating Independent Events
The probability a randomly selected murder victim is male is 0.7515.
The probability a randomly selected murder victim is male given that
they are less than 18 years old is 0.6751.
Since P(male) = 0.7515 and
P(male | < 18 years old) = 0.6751,
the events “male” and “less than 18 years old” are not independent.
In fact, knowing the victim is less than 18 years old decreases the
probability that the victim is male.
EXAMPLE Illustrating the Multiplication Principle for Independent Events

The probability that a randomly selected female aged 60 years old

will survive the year is 99.186% according to the National Vital
Statistics Report, Vol. 47, No. 28. What is the probability that two
randomly selected 60 year old females will survive the year?

99.186% * 99.186% =98.38%

EXAMPLE Illustrating the Multiplication Principle for Independent Events

The probability that a randomly selected female aged 60 years old

will survive the year is 99.186% according to the National Vital
Statistics Report, Vol. 47, No. 28. What is the probability that four
randomly selected 60 year old females will survive the year?

0.99186* 0.99186* 0.99186* 0.99186=96.78%

Suppose we have a box full of 500 golf balls. In the box, there
are 50 Titleist golf balls.
(a) Suppose two golf balls are selected randomly without
replacement. What is the probability they are both Titleists?
(b) Suppose a golf ball is selected at random and then replaced.
A second golf ball is then selected. What is the probability they
are both Titleists? NOTE: When sampling with replacement, the
events are independent.
If small random samples are taken from large populations
without replacement, it is reasonable to assume
independence of the events. Typically, if the sample size
is less than 5% of the population size, then we treat the
events as independent.
EXAMPLE Computing “at least” Probabilities

The probability that a randomly selected female aged 60 years

old will survive the year is 99.186% according to the National
Vital Statistics Report, Vol. 47, No. 28. What is the probability
that at least one of 500 randomly selected 60 year old females
will die during the course of the year?

1-P(All Survived)=1-0.99186^500=50.4%
Elementary Statistics by Bluman
• https://slideplayer.com/slide/7099764/
• http://www.cwladis.com/math100/Lecture4Sets.htm
• http://www.cwladis.com/math100/Lecture4Sets.htm