Running head: PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

Applied Probability and Statistics Mathematics in The Current Real World Issues

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PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

Applied Probability And Statistics Mathematics In The Current Real World Issues

The need to solve and find solutions to several problems both in the classroom and the

outside world has resulted into innovation and invention of means to tackle these. Mathematics

has then taken different forms and branches such as algebra, graph theory, number theory and

probability and statistics each that digs deep into specific solution findings. These are applied in

budgeting and resource allocation and illustration of equal access to social amenities. On this

note this paper is obliged to expound through present illustration and research on how probability

and statistics is used to real world situations.

Probability as a branch of mathematics is a measure of how likely that an event will occur

in the case of a random fair experiment that has unpredictable behavior in the short period but

pose a regular, predictable pattern in the long run. probability encompasses basic concepts,

conditions and laws of probability, continuous random and discrete random variables, sampling

distribution of sample mean, sample space and central limit theorem to mention but a few of the

many components of probability that will help us find solutions to current situations (Bahadur,

1971). The common terminologies used include sample space that refers to the set of possible

outcomes of a random occurrence. Also any set of outcomes of interest in probability is called an

event. Hence the probability of an event is written as, Pr (A).

Interpretation of notation of events is essential as each represent different occurrences.

For instance in a case of events as A and B, A ꭒ B means both the events A and B occur. A ꞃ B

means both events A and B occur simultaneously. Ᾱ Complements A in case it fails to occur.

When the element of probability is introduced then Pr (Ᾱ) = 1 – Pr (A). These events are said to

be mutually exclusive when both cannot occur at the same time and independent events in case

Pr (A ꞃ B) = Pr (A) Pr (B).
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In addition to the above conditions, these laws are applied in probability multiplication

law where Pr ( A1 n A2 n … n Ak) = Pr (A1) Pr (A2) …. Pr (Ak) when the events are

independent, addition law if A and B are the only event then Pr (A u B) = Pr (A) + Pr (B) – Pr

(A n B). And the guidelines to statics with conditional probability of B where A is provided

Pr (B/A) = Pr (A n B)/ Pr (A). The random variables of probability that have numerical outcome

are denoted by x, y, z. Discrete variable is a random variable that several countable possible

outcomes like number of rainy days. Continuous random variable provides intervals in the

occurrence of events.

In an event when population data is used then the term parameter is used to describe the

number of population and a statistic a number from a sample data given unknown parameters.

For instance, µ denotes population mean and x¯ to estimate population mean. A random number

from 1000 samples is used to estimate average income of sample mean. Population mean is also

illustrated as expected value µ = E ( X) = ΣR i=1 x i Pr( X = x i) = ΣR i=1 x i f ( x i ) in this case R

may be either finite or infinite. The population variance is denoted as (Var) is the flow and

anticipated value of possible probabilities σ2 = Var (X)

= Σ R i=1 (xi − µ) 2 Pr(X= xi)

= ΣR i=1 x2i Pr(X= xi) − µ2 while standard deviation

is represented by σ and is the square root of variance.

When determining central limit theorem of a random sample of any population of mean µ

and variance σ2 let X1, … , Xn then the sample mean is stated to be approximately normally

distributed with mean µ and variance σ2/n.

Statistics is applied in numerous daily events in human life during budgeting of

resources, scheduling events, determining efficiency and also in the allocation of resources.
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These are all encountered at work place and community level for instance often one finds

themselves in a strict situation where by work needs to be done and the resources available and

those needed fail to balance hence competency and efficiency has to be employed to scrutinize,

discern and calculate the appropriate allocation of these scarce resources to achieve the same

results and maximizing on profits from the same.

Resource allocation is the prudent assigning and managing assets that are readily

available at work to ensure maximum use. It is addressed mathematically by using theories of

allocation in statistic like binomial distribution, central limit theorem. Also in cases where the

exact population of the workforce is huge then a sample of between 0 and 1000 can be used to

ease the calculation by drawing a sample from the total population (Bahadur, 1971). The purpose

of implementing statistics resource allocation is to ensure the quotations are legitimate and

represent real figures and provide the exact reflection of the company. This not only increases the

accuracy but also ensures quick and efficient ways of coming into finding solutions. Therefore it

is honest to say in deed statistics is a key element in the community.

Adverse losses and consequences can be faced in case statistics is not applied in resource

allocation. This is because for instance in statistics one will understand how to promptly read and

understand probability and apply it appropriately during resource allocation to choose which

resource are to be assigned to what departments (Cooper & Cooper, 2016). And in a scenario

whereby probability is ignored and one uses self-discerning and allocate resources to a

department that will incur losses then the whole firm suffers the atrocities of these ignorance that

could be eliminated easily to avoid wasting resources, labor, time, and the company’s reputation.

Social or economic trends refers to the demographic illustration in the relation between

employee and employer their off work lifestyle and official work expectations and how it affects
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the general well-being of the firm and how statistics can be applied in the totality of this.

Through understanding the employees’ increased life expectancy in relation to their educational

gaps will then provide solutions to establishing their mean, variance and standard deviation. This

component of statistics paves way to clear record keeping, quick and efficient calculation

concerning the employees and would also help in finding the significant allocation and grouping

of employees to enable the maximize each other’s potential and provide a good work environ.

The broader benefits attained from employing statistics would be increased competency

and efficiency. In line to making work easier calculation of large sums is simplified through mass

calculations of probability mass functions. Also it ensures elimination of errors by

acknowledging the possibility of error in standard error of the mean considering variance.

Accuracy will lead to appropriate management of resource to employees as timely allocations

minimize disputes, and provide employee satisfaction (Cooper & Cooper, 2016). Once

employees are contented with their job and the work environment they are motivated and this

will in turn lead to a good relation between management and employee thus slow turnover rate.

Amidst turning a side eye to socio or economic trends, the firm can face several

challenges such and high turnover rates and dissatisfaction and disputes. These challenges pose a

threat to the firm and its employees too and a toxic environment will lead to several labor hours

due to lack of motivation. Also due to low retention of workforce the firm will incur high

budgets in recruiting processes, training and replacing the sudden empty posts of quitting

employees. Therefore statistics is an important tool to the firm as they tirelessly strive to

eliminate losses and maximize profits.

According to Pishro (2016), Michael, Ronald, Lidia, Alexandra, and Catherine are

sharing a basket of fries. The following table shows an incomplete probability model for who

will eat the next fry.

Person Probability
Michael 0.30, point, 3
Ronald
Lidia 0.10, point, 1
Alexandr

a 0.320, point, 32
Catherine 0.10, point, 1

What is the probability that Ronald will eat the next fry?

The individual probabilities of each person eating the next fry must sum to 1. We know

this because exactly one of the five people must eat each fry.

0.3+P(R) +0.1+0.32+0.1 &= 1

P(R) = 1-0.3-0.1-0.32-0.1 =D {0.18}

0.3+0.1+0.32+0.1=1−0.3−0.1−0.32−0.1=0.18

The probability that Ronald will eat the next fry is 0.18

In conclusion, from the above mentioned illustrations it is clear that indeed statistics has a

key role in the community and firms that can use it in several ways and exploit situations to their
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benefits using the prowess learnt in the classroom and applied in different fields in managing

resources, allocating them and using illustration to give a vivid example on the matter. Thus I

can conclusively say that statistics and probability just as other branches of mathematics holds a

significant element of human day to day living in the present world. Probability can be used both

theoretically and statistics in numeral form to calculate large sums of physical situations in

dummy form of a sample that is simplified, quick, easy and accurate.

References

Bahadur, R. R. (1971). Some limit theorems in statistics. Society for industrial and applied

mathematics.

Cooper, L., & Cooper, M. W. (2016). Introduction to Dynamic Programming: International

Series in Modern Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Volume 1 (Vol. 1).

Elsevier.

Pishro-Nik, H. (2016). Introduction to probability, statistics, and random processes.