Probability

PROBABILITY
• Probability is a measure of how likely it is
for an event to happen.
• Do we have a better chance of it occurring
or do we have a better chance of it not
occurring?
• We name a probability with a number
from 0 to 1.
 PROBABILITY
•If an event is certain to happen,
then the probability of the event
is 1.
•If an event is certain not to
happen, then the probability of
the event is 0.
 PROBABILITY

• If it is uncertain whether or not an event

will happen, then its probability is some
fraction between 0 and 1 (or a fraction
converted to a decimal number).
Probability
Generally, we talk about this probability
as a fraction, a decimal, or even a
percent—
•the probability that if two dice are
tossed the spots will total to seven is 1/6
•the probability that a baseball player
will get a hit is .273
•the probability that it will rain is 20%
 Activity
• Which of the following values cannot
be probabilities of events and why?

1/5 0.97 -5.5 1.56

5/3 0.0 2/7 1.0

7
 EXPERIMENT

• An experiment is any process of observation or

measurement.
• It consist of a number of independent trials under
identical conditions.
 EXAMPLES

• 1. Toss a die and observe the number that shows on top.

• 2. Toss a coin four times and observe the sequence of heads and tails obtained.

• 3. Manufacture items on a production line and observe the sequence of defective

and non-defective items produced during a 24-hour period.

• 4. Manufacture a light bulb and record the time it burns until it expires.

• 5. From an urn containing only black balls, a ball is chosen and its colour noted.
 OUTCOME

• The results obtained from an experiment are

called the outcomes of the experiment.
 EXAMPLE 1

• Consider the following experiment: Toss a coin

and observe the side that appears. Find the
possible outcomes of this experiment.

• Answer: head (H) and tail (T)

 EXAMPLE 2

• Consider the following experiment: Toss a die and

observe the number that shows on top. Find the
possible outcomes of this experiment

• Answer: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6
 SAMPLE SPACE

• The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment

is called the sample space of the experiment.
• The sample space is denoted by S
 EXAMPLE

• Consider the following experiment: Toss a coin two

times and observe the sequence of heads (H) and
tails (T) that appears. Determine the sample space of
this experiment.
 EVENT

• A single outcome or a set of outcomes.

• An event A is a set of possible outcomes; that is, an event A is a
subset of the sample space S 𝐴 ⊆ 𝑆 .
• In particular, the set {a} consisting of a single outcome 𝑎 ∈ 𝑆 is
an event, and is called an elementary event.
• Furthermore, S itself is an event and so is the empty set ∅.
The set ∅ is sometimes called the impossible event.
 EXAMPLE

• Consider again the following experiment:Toss a die and observe the

number that shows on top. Let A be the event that an even number
appears, B be the event that an odd number appears, C be the event that a
prime number appears, and D be the event that a number greater than 2
appears. List the outcomes in S, A, B, C, and D.
 CLASSICAL INTERPRETATION OF PROBABILITY

• The classical interpretation of probability is based on the concept of

equally likely outcomes.
• Suppose that the sample space of an experiment consists of n outcomes, all n
of which are equally likely to occur;
• then the probability of each outcome is 1/𝑛
THE PROBABILITY OF A, WRITTEN P(A), IS
 EXAMPLE 1

• A marble is drawn at random from an urn

containing 4 white marbles, 3 red marbles, and 5
blue marbles. Find the probability p that the marble
is red.
• Answer: 1/4
 EXAMPLE 2

• A marble is drawn at random from an urn containing 4

white marbles, 3 red marbles, and 5 blue marbles. Find
the probability p that the marble is blue.
• Answer: 5/12
 EXAMPLE 3

• A fair die is tossed once. Find the probability that a

number greater than 4 appears.
• Answer: 1/3
 EXAMPLE 4

• A fair coin is tossed two times. Find the

probability that one head appears.
• Answer: 1/2
EXAMPLE 5
SOLUTION
EXAMPLE 6
SOLUTION
 RELATIVE FREQUENCY INTERPRETATION OF
PROBABILITY
• According to the relative frequency interpretation of probability, the probability
of an event can be interpreted as the relative frequency with which this event would
be obtained if the experiment were repeated a large number of times.
• For example, the probability of obtaining a head when a coin is tossed is considered to
be 1/2 because the relative frequency of head should be approximately 1/2 when the coin
is tossed a large number of times.
• In general, if n is the number of times an experiment is conducted and x is the number of
times an event A occurs, then x/n is the relative frequency of occurrence of A.
𝑥
• The probability of the event A is then interpreted as lim
n→∞ 𝑛
 EXAMPLE 1

• Records show that (over a period of time) 516 of 600

airplanes from city A to city B arrived on time.
Estimate the probability p that any one airplane from
city A to city B will arrive on time.
• Answer: 0.86.
 EXAMPLE 2

• If records show that 492 of 2050 automatic

dishwashers sold by a large retailer required repairs
within the warranty year, estimate the probability p
that an automatic dishwasher sold by the retailer will
require repairs within the warranty year.
• Answer: 0.24.
SINCE EVENTS ARE SETS, THEY MAY BE COMBINED TO FORM
NEW EVENTS USING THE VARIOUS SET OPERATIONS.
 EXAMPLE

• Consider the following experiment: Toss a die and observe the number that
shows on top. Let A be the event that an even number appears, B be the
event that an odd number appears, C be the event that a prime number
appears, and D be the event that a number greater than 2 appears. List the
outcomes in S, A, B, C, and D. List the outcomes in and verbally describe the
events
(i) 𝐴 ∪ 𝐶
(ii) 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶
(iii) 𝐷′
SOLUTION
 AXIOMS OF PROBABILITY

• An axiom of Probability is a PROPOSITION that

is assumed without proof which is subsequently
used as the basis for solving other problems
concerning probability.
AXIOMS
 MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

• Two events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive if and only if they
have no outcomes in common, so that 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = ∅.
• In other words, A and B are mutually exclusive if and only if they cannot
occur simultaneously.
• A and B together is impossible: P(A and B) = 0
• A or B is the sum of A and B: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
 EXAMPLES

• Turning left and turning right are Mutually Exclusive

(you can't do both at the same time)
• Tossing a coin: Heads and Tails are Mutually Exclusive
• Cards: Kings and Aces are Mutually Exclusive
VENN DIAGRAM MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
 EXAMPLE 1

• A box contains 200 identical machine parts, of which 100 were

produced by machine A, 60 by machine B, and 40 by machine C.
If a part is selected at random from the box, find the probability
that it was produced by (a) machine A or machine B and (b)
machine B or machine C.
Answers:
• (a) 0.8
• (b) 0.5
 EXAMPLE 2

• The probability that a manufacturer’s raw material

price index will go up during a certain month is 0.82,
and the probability that it will remain unchanged is
0.13. Find the probability that the index will go up or
remain unchanged.
• Answer: 0.95.
 BASIC PROBABILITY RULES

• Theorem 1: 𝑃 ∅ = 0
• Theorem 2: For any event A: 𝑃 𝐴′ = 1 − 𝑃 𝐴
• Theorem 3: For any two events A and B:
𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 A +𝑃 𝐵 −𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
The result in Theorem 3 is called the general addition rule.
• Theorem 4: If A and B are any two events in a sample space S and 𝑃 𝐴 ≠ 0
then 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 ,
or 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐵 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 , 𝑃 𝐵 ≠0
The result in Theorem 4 is called the general multiplication rule.
VENN DIAGRAM FOR THE COMPLEMENT OF
EVENT A

A A
VENN DIAGRAM FOR ADDITION RULE

P( A  B) = P( A) + P( B) − P( A  B)

P(AB)

A B

=
P(A) P(B) P(AB)

A B + A B - A B
 EXAMPLE 1

• The probability that a business student will get a failing

grade in accounting is 0.20, the probability that she will
get a failing grade in marketing is 0.15, and the probability
that she will get a failing grade in both accounting and
marketing is 0.03. Find the probability that the student
will get a failing grade in accounting or marketing.
• Answer: 0.32.
 EXAMPLE 2

• The probabilities are, respectively, 0.23, 0.24, and 0.38 that

a truck stopped at a roadblock will have faulty brakes,
badly worn tyres, or faulty brakes or badly worn tyres.
What is the probability that a truck stopped at this
roadblock will have faulty brakes and badly worn tyres?
• Answer: 0.09.
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

• Let A and B be two events in a sample space S. The

probability that B occurs given that A has occurred is called
the conditional probability of B given A and is defined by
 EXAMPLE 1

• A manufacturer of automobile parts knows from past

experience that the probability is 0.80 that an order will be
ready for shipment on time, and the probability is 0.72 that an
order will be ready for shipment on time and will also be
delivered on time. What is the probability that an order will
be delivered on time given that it is ready for shipment on
time?
• Answer: 0.90.
 EXAMPLE 2

An office has 100 calculating machines, of which some are new while others are
used. Also, some of the machines are electric while others are manual. The table
below gives the number of machines in the different categories.

A person enters the office, picks a machine at random, and discovers that it is new.
What is the probability that it is electric?
𝟒
• Answer:
𝟕
 EXAMPLE 3

• A lot of 100 items consists of 20 defective and 80

non-defective items. If two items are chosen at
random, without replacement, what is the probability
that both items are defective?
• Answer: 19/495
 EXAMPLE 4

• The probability that Marcia, a business administration

student at the University of Technology, will get a BBA
degree is 0.75, and the probability that with a BBA degree
she will get a well-paying job is 0.90. Find the probability
that Marcia will get a BBA degree and a well-paying job.
• Answer: 0.675.
 INDEPENDENT EVENTS

• Two events A and B are independent if and only if

𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵
• Two events A and B are said to be independent if the occurrence of A
does not affect the probability of the occurrence of B and vice versa.
• Note 𝑃 𝐴ȁ𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 and 𝑃 𝐵ȁ𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐵
• If two events A and B are not independent, they are said to be
dependent.
• This result is called the special multiplication rule.
 EXAMPLE 1

• What is the probability of getting two heads in

two tosses of a fair coin?
• Answer: 1/4
 EXAMPLE 2

• A large lot contains items, 10% of which are defective and

90% nondefective. If two items are chosen at random, with
replacement, what is the probability that both items are
nondefective?
• Answer: 0.81.
 EXAMPLE 3

• The probability that Fiona will hit a target when she shoots
at it is 1/4, and the probability that Georgia will hit the
target when she shoots at it is 2/5. If Fiona and Georgia
each takes one shot at the target, independently, what is
the probability that the target will be hit?
• Answer: 11/20
 REVIEW QUESTION 1

A group of 150 randomly selected chief executive officers (CEOs) were tested for
personality type. The following table gives the result of this survey.

Type A Type B
Male 78 42
Female 19 11

If one CEO is selected at random from this group, find the probability that this CEO
(i) has a type A personality and is female
(ii) has a type B personality given that the person is a female
 REVIEW QUESTION 2

• From past experience, a stockbroker believes that under

present economic conditions a customer will invest in tax-
free bonds with a probability of 0.6, will invest in mutual
funds with a probability of 0.3, and will invest in both tax-
free bonds and mutual funds with a probability of 0.15. At
this time, find the probability that a customer will invest
• in either tax-free bonds or mutual funds;
• in neither tax-free bonds nor mutual funds.
 REVIEW QUESTION 3

For married couples living in a certain suburb, the

probability that the wife will vote in a school board
election is 0.21, the probability that the husband will vote
in the election is 0.28, and the probability that they will
both vote is 0.15. What is the probability that at least one
of them will vote?
 REVIEW QUESTION 4

The probability that a certain concert will be well

advertised is 0.82, and the probability that if the concert
is well advertised it will be well attended is 0.91. What is
the probability that the concert will be well advertised
and also well attended?
 REVIEW QUESTION 5

Twenty items, 12 of which are defective and 8 non-defective, are

inspected one after the other (without replacement). If these items
are chosen at random, find the probability that
(a) the first two items inspected are defective;
(b) the first two items inspected are non-defective;
(c) among the first two items inspected, there is one defective item
and one non-defective item.
 Source
https://www.mathsisfun.com/definitions/
probability.html
https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/prob
ability-events-mutually-exclusive.html
Handouts – Merrick Mullings
Moodle Online Notes