Kabul DR - Shahid PDF
Kabul DR - Shahid PDF
Kabul DR - Shahid PDF
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Citation:
IUCN, 2010. Towards Kabul Water Treaty: Managing Shared Water
Resources – Policy Issues and Options.
IUCN Pakistan, Karachi. 11 pp.
Prepared by:
Dr. Shahid Ahmad
Resource person:
Hamid Sarfraz
Towards Kabul Water Treaty: Managing Shared Water Resources – Policy Issues and Options 1
1. THE CONTEXT
1.1. Afghanistan – Physio-graphy and Ethno-geography
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan is a country of rough and rugged terrain enveloped by the Hindu-
Kush ranges. The highest peak “Nowshak” is situated at 7,485 m. The country is an inland arid area
with no coastline. It is located in Central Asia bordered by Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan in
the north, Pakistan in the south and east, Iran in the west and the China in the far north-east.
Kunar River (named Kabul river in Afghanistan), which originates in Pakistan, crosses the border with
an average annual flow of 10 km³ and joins the Kabul River at Jalalabad about 180 km further
downstream. The Kabul River flows again into Pakistan 80 km further downstream. Internal renewable
water resources of Afghanistan are 55 km³/year. Total water withdrawal was 26.11 km³ in 1987 largely
1 AQUASTAT FAO Water database for water and agriculture for Afghanistan
2 Towards Kabul Water Treaty: Managing Shared Water Resources – Policy Issues and Options
for agriculture. In 1986, there were two dams higher than 15 m with installed capacity of 281 MW in
1992, representing 70% of total installed capacity in the country. There is considerable potential for
the generation of hydropower in the country.
Issues of shared water resources among upper and lower riparian basin states (i.e. Afghanistan and
Pakistan) are becoming complex due to the impacts of extreme climatic variability and change, rising
water demand and environmental concerns. The Government of Afghanistan with the support of the
international donors has developed comprehensive plans for the development of new hydro-power
projects, irrigation schemes and rehabilitation of old schemes on various rivers including the Kabul
River, which will affect the historic rights of lower riparian of the Kabul River.
Because of Afghanistan’s innate land locked setting, virtually all of Afghanistan’s major rivers drain off
into riparian neighbouring states. Trans-boundary concerns are intensifying along all of Afghanistan’s
borders, and with the added impetus of climate change and diminishing glaciers, can no longer be
avoided. . . . Afghanistan requires solid support from the donor/financing community to
2
study and add dimensions to both its current and future water requirements .
As part of an effort to help shape more effective international cooperation toward stabilization of
Afghanistan and South-west Asia, the East West Institute organized in 2009 a series of policy
dialogues, a large-scale consultations to explore new policy options for management of shared water
resources. Bringing together more than a hundred policy makers and experts from the region and
2 Shojaudin Ziaie, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Ministry of Energy and Water, “Water Sector Strategy for Afghanistan
National Development Strategy,” March 15, 2007, p. 9,
http://www.ands.gov.af/ands/final_ands/src/final/ministry_strategies/English/Ministry of Energy and Water-Water Resources
English.pdf. The quote from the Afghan Ministry of Energy and Water’s Draft Water Sector Strategy of 2007 is on p. 9.
Towards Kabul Water Treaty: Managing Shared Water Resources – Policy Issues and Options 3
beyond, the meetings, held in Kabul, Islamabad, Brussels, and Paris, addressed deficits in regional
cooperation on water and laid foundations for new cooperative frameworks. Throughout the meetings,
participants reiterated the challenges: a) technical and knowledge deficits in water sector; b) restrict
efficient management of national water resources; and c) limit prospects for development of a
coherent policy on trans-boundary river basins. Information deficit is greatest in Afghanistan.
3 Figures from the public website of the World Bank, http://web.worldbank. org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/
SOUTHASIAEXT/ EXTSAREGTOPA GRI/0,,contentMDK:20273762~menuPK:548212~pagePK:34004173~piPK:
34003707~theSitePK:452766,00.html.
4, Ziaie “Water Sector Strategy.” As stated in the Afghanistan National Development Strategy, average annual precipitation
yields an annual surface runoff water volume of 2,300 m³/year per capita. According to the 2007 data of the Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Afghanistan’s total actual renewable water resources are estimated
at approximately 2,500 m³/year per capita, compared to approximately 1.850 m³/year per capita in Germany (figures of the
FAO Aquastat Water Resources and MDG Indicator of March 2009).
4 Towards Kabul Water Treaty: Managing Shared Water Resources – Policy Issues and Options
The ANDS states that its strategic vision on water sector is “to manage and develop water resources
so as to reduce poverty, increase sustainable economic and social development, and improve quality
7
of life for all Afghans and ensure an adequate supply of water for future generations .” The main
surface water resources of Afghanistan are the Amu Darya, the Helmand River, the Kabul River, and
the Harirud and Murghab rivers.
Afghanistan shares these rivers with Afghanistan has formulated plans for
Iran, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, significant water infrastructure
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The development on each river to mitigate
importance of water-intensive cotton floods and droughts and to fully exploit
industry in Central Asia increases the its irrigation and energy potential. While
likelihood of cross-border tensions. crucial to Afghanistan’s social and
Regional cooperation on shared water
economic development, these plans will
resources appears increasingly
also affect trans-boundary water flow
necessary to ensure sustainable
and, as a result, relations with its
development in Afghanistan and its
neighbouring countries and to maintain
neighbours including Pakistan.
regional stability and security.
5 4R. Favre and G. M. Kamal, “Watershed Atlas of Afghanistan,” 2004, pp. 63–66.
6 Ziaie, “Water Sector Strategy”; Afghanistan National Development Strategy (2008), p. 60.
7 Ziaie, “Water Sector Strategy”; Afghanistan National Development Strategy (2008), p. 82.
Towards Kabul Water Treaty: Managing Shared Water Resources – Policy Issues and Options 5
Kabul River flows in eastern Afghanistan and north-western Pakistan. It is about 700 kms long, of
which 560 kms flow through Afghanistan. Rising in the Sangl kh Range 72 kms west of Kabul city, it
flows east past Kabul and Jalalabad, north of the Khyber Pass into Pakistan, and past Peshawar. It
joins the Indus River northwest of Islamabad at Attock. Kabul River Basin, including the important
tributary Kunar River, represents around 12% of available water resources in Afghanistan. It is crucial
to the livelihoods of millions of people sharing its water resources for drinking, sanitation, agriculture,
power generation, and industry (Figures 3 and 4).
A major tributary of the Indus River, the Kabul River traverses Kabul and crosses the eastern border
into Pakistan. It is the main source of freshwater for the Kabul city’s growing population of more than 3
million, though it has frequently run dry in the last ten years.
Water resources of Kabul River are essentially shared between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Despite
repeated attempts on both sides to reach an agreement but not materialized. On the Pakistani side,
policy makers like to recall the formation in 2003 of a nine-member technical committee, led by
Pakistan’s then Chairman of the Federal Flood Commission, to begin drafting a Water Treaty with
Afghanistan. The committee maintained that its efforts failed because it did not receive sufficient river
flow data from Afghan authorities.
In 2006, in an effort to provide new impetus to a drafting process for a bilateral treaty, the World Bank
offered support for a consultation process between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The bank’s mediating
role was considered appropriate, as it was recognized for its engagement in formulating the Indus
Waters Treaty and mediating Indian-Pakistani water disputes in Kashmir, among others.
Nevertheless, the World Bank’s offer did not result in renewed dialogue. No institutionalized
framework of cooperation on the Kabul River basin currently exists. Factors that have hampered
bilateral cooperation efforts are complex and include the power asymmetry between Afghanistan and
8
Pakistan, the decades-old dispute over the Durand Line , and the recent dispute between Pakistan
and India over the Indus River,
in particular the interpretation of
the Indus Water Treaty with
regard to dams construction in
India. The Digital Elevation
Model (DEM) was used with the
help of the remotely sensed
satellite data, the topographic
map of the hydrologic regions of
the Kabul river basin was
developed (Figure 6). The DEM
indicated that the Pakistan part
of the Konar River is
topographically characterized as
highlands with extreme slopes. Figure 6. DEM of Kabul River basin
In March 2009, meeting of Economic Cooperation Organization, Afghan, Iranian and Tajik leaders
agreed to speed up implementation of projects on the water-energy nexus. Joint commitments of a
similar nature were not made between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The most ambitious joint statement
by the two countries was the Islamabad Declaration, adopted after the third Regional Economic
Cooperation Conference on Afghanistan (RECCA) in May 2009.
The declaration recognized Afghanistan’s centrality for peace, prosperity, and stability in Central and
South Asia and endorsed the need for a comprehensive approach and participation of the
international community in economic development. It noted the importance of regional organizations
in ensuring Afghanistan’s economic development and extending regional cooperation. Among the
areas the declaration targets for greater regional cooperation are transport, trade, energy,
agriculture, capacity building, education, border management, counter-narcotics, and refugee return
and re-integration. To date, however, the Islamabad Declaration has not led to improved cooperation
on water.
8 A. Khalid, “Need for a Pak-Afghan treaty on management of joint watercourses” (2007), pp.15–16
Towards Kabul Water Treaty: Managing Shared Water Resources – Policy Issues and Options 7
• 3
Sharp decline in annual flows of Kabul River from 34.6 to 23.5 km (28 to 19 MAF; Figure 7),
which might be due to climatic variability or change, and/or persistent drought;
• 3
Lowest and highest annual flows were 13.82 km (11.2 MAF) and 42.94 km (34.8 MAF). The
3
ratio between lowest and highest annual river flows is 1:3 (Figure 8). This high ratio of 1:3 raises
few questions: Is it due to: a) climatic variability and/or change; b) more frequent and severe
droughts; and/or c) diversion of more waters for multiple uses in Afghanistan.
• Decline in seasonal river flows during Kharif was more severe than Rabi season due to changes
in the monsoon rainfall in the last 70 years (Figures 9 and 10). The issue is of serious concern
and deserves detailed study by hydrologists and water management experts with an objective to
build scenarios for future predictions regarding water availability to Pakistan and expanded use of
water in Afghanistan. It is also the right time for Pakistan to raise the issue of rights of the lower
riparian and the option of entering into negotiations with Afghanistan with an ultimate aim of
signing a treaty with Afghanistan – Kabul River Treaty.
4. KEY ISSUES
There is rapid decline in the flows of Kabul River at Attock in Pakistan. The reasons for the rapid
decline of flows need to be studied jointly by the basin states. Currently, there is no Treaty between
Afghanistan and Pakistan. With new water developments in Afghanistan, Pakistan as a lower riparian
will be affected adversely. It is the time to analyse the issues so that Pakistan’s historical rights are
maintained and at the same time Afghanistan also gets the benefit from the waters of the Kabul River.
The key issues were identified for the Kabul River, which might cause conflicts in future between the
basin states regarding the new development of hydro-power projects in Afghanistan.
Towards Kabul Water Treaty: Managing Shared Water Resources – Policy Issues and Options 9
The situation of No Treaty between Afghanistan and Pakistan is not going to help Pakistan
because upper riparian always enjoy the upper hand in sharing waters of joint basins in a situation of
conflict. Pakistan has a unique position on the Kabul River as one of the major tributary named as
“Kunar River” is originated in Pakistan. Thus, Pakistan is having status of both upper and lower
riparian of the Kabul River. Afghanistan is the middle riparian.
There are no regional mechanisms for cooperation on water in south-west Asia that involve
Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran. With the exception of 1973 bilateral treaty between Afghanistan and
Iran on the Helmand River, no bilateral legal frameworks on shared water resources exist with any
other basin state. Regional cooperation requires political will, which, to date, has not been
forthcoming. Instead, mistrust and political considerations focusing on what is perceived as national
interest have hampered the potential for forward looking cooperation between the basin states.
Sharp decline in annual flows of Kabul River at Attock in Pakistan based on historical data is
3
observed from 34.6 to 23.5 km due to climatic variability or change; or due to persistent drought; or
enhanced use of water by Afghanistan.
Probability analysis of annual flows of Kabul River at Attock indicated that lowest and highest annual
3 3
flows were 13.82 km and 42.94 km , respectively based on historical data of 1937-07. The ratio
between lowest and highest annual river flows is 1:3, which is highest compared to any river of the
Indus-Pakistan. Why this ratio is higher than all other rivers. The decline in river flows during the
Kharif season was more severe than the Rabi season due changes in monsoon rainfall in last 70
years.
5. POTENTIAL OPTIONS
Basin states may reframe precisely the narrowly defined perceptions of national water
security, reversing stereotypes surrounding water, creating political will, and increasing people’s
participation to address the issues of trans-boundary waters between the basin states.
Encourage the involvement of recent agreements in the framework of ECO, SARC and other
forums to serve as a fertile ground for regional and bilateral water diplomacy.
Initiate dialogues and support Kabul Water Treaty between Afghanistan and Pakistan, as
situation of No Treaty between two basin states is not going to help anyone. The Treaty would provide
framework for the basin states to get benefit from waters of the Kabul River.
10 Towards Kabul Water Treaty: Managing Shared Water Resources – Policy Issues and Options
Initiate negotiations with Afghanistan to have Kabul Water Treaty between the basin states
using the principles of International Water Law of “Negotiations in Good Faith”, “Maintaining the
Historical Rights”, “No Harm to Anyone” and “Ensuring Equitable Utilization of Waters” for the basin
states.
Create transparent and shared repository of hydrological data on Kabul trans-boundary river
basin between the basin states to improve predictability of water flows and establish transparency of
available water resources at the regional level. Mutual trust in such a data repository will be both a
crucial condition for and a result of its existence. Policy makers should therefore consider establishing
the repository under the aegis of a third party – the support of developed country and having
comparative advantages of managing river basins i.e. Royal Government of Netherlands, etc.
Establish a Regional River Basin Management Commission with offices in each of the basin
states (Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan) to build mutually beneficial cooperation on scientific and
technical matters to ultimately build trust in the region and alleviate concerns of upstream and
downstream states through fostering support of the international community for regional cooperation
rather than dealing with national issues.
Launch a multilateral dialogue process to build confidence and establish an agenda for trans-
boundary river basin management mechanism and inter-governmental river-basin based water
security watchdogs to build confidence and a common understanding for the most pressing water
issues in the region. This could be done by optimizing existing frameworks of regional cooperation,
but also by extending beyond such frameworks.
Encourage informal gathering of scientists from Pakistan and its neighbours to conduct a
comprehensive joint scientific and technical assessment on the value of establishing river-basin-
based hydrological mechanisms to improve management of trans-boundary river basins. Support from
international community for developing such forums will be of high value.
6. WAY FORWARD
Current situation is very uncertain politically between the basin states of Kabul River basin –
Afghanistan and Pakistan. The upper riparian is now in the process of rehabilitating the schemes
damaged through the long war in Afghanistan and developing new irrigation and hydro-power
infrastructure for the benefits of future generations. Afghanistan is currently supported by the
international community and has relatively the upper edge in resolving the conflicts. Pakistan being
more developed country from that of Afghanistan therefore the change must start in Pakistan to
develop a mindset to assist the neighbour in building the infrastructure. The things need to be done
leading towards Kabul Water Treaty are: a) there must be some courageous and open-minded
Pakistanis and Afghanis – who will stand up and explain to the respective public of the basin states
why it is an existential issue both for Afghanistan and Pakistan; b) there must be leadership from the
Government of Pakistan, who should show the generosity of spirit which is an integral part of being
truly a good neighbour after resolving the pending issues of mistrust; c) extends an invitation to
Afghanistan to explore ways in which the principles of the International Water Laws could be
respected, while providing a win-win situation for both the basin states. With good will there are
multiple ways in which the Treaty could be negotiated so that both the basin states could win; and d)
discussions on the Kabul waters should be de-linked from both historic grievances and from the other
9 Making the Most of Afghanistan’s River Basins Opportunities for Regional Cooperation By Matthew King and Benjamin
Sturtewagen
Towards Kabul Water Treaty: Managing Shared Water Resources – Policy Issues and Options 11
Durand Line-related issues. Again, it is a sign of statesmanship, not weakness, to acknowledge the
past and then move beyond it.
Who will be the Champions of building a consensus to have Kabul Water Treaty and ensure
secured future for the indigent population of the basin states and make it happen for the
benefit of Afghanis and Pakistanis – on the Kabul River?
INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR
CONSERVATION OF NATURE
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