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Lecture - Conditional Probability

Conditional probability is the probability of an event A given that another event B has occurred. It is calculated as the probability that both events A and B occur divided by the probability of event B. This is denoted as P(A|B). The document provides examples of calculating conditional probabilities, including finding the percentage of students that passed a second test given they passed the first, and the probability of purchasing a particular shoe brand given an age group.

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Reygie Fabriga
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61 views

Lecture - Conditional Probability

Conditional probability is the probability of an event A given that another event B has occurred. It is calculated as the probability that both events A and B occur divided by the probability of event B. This is denoted as P(A|B). The document provides examples of calculating conditional probabilities, including finding the percentage of students that passed a second test given they passed the first, and the probability of purchasing a particular shoe brand given an age group.

Uploaded by

Reygie Fabriga
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Conditional Probability

The usual notation for “event A occurs given that event B has occurred” is A⃒B (A given B). The
symbol ⃒is a vertical line does not imply division. P(A⃒B) denotes the probability that event A will occur
given that event B has occurred already. We define conditional probability as follows:

For any two events A and B with P(B) > 0, the conditional probability of A given that B has occurred
is defined by

P ( A ∩B)
P ( A⃒B ) =
P(B)

Illustrative Examples:
1. A mathematics teacher gave her class two tests. Twenty-five percent of the class passed both tests and
42% of the class passed the first test. What percent of those who passed the first test also passed the
second test?

2. Consider the table below showing A as the age group under 30 years old who purchase 2 different
brands of shoes.

Age Group Brand X Brand Y Total


A (under 30 years old) 6% 34% 40%
A’ (30 years and older) 9% 51% 60%
Total 15% 85% 100%

a. What is the probability that a person chosen at random purchases Brand X?


b. What is the probability that a person chosen at random is under 30 years old?
c. What is probability that a person chosen at random purchases Brand X and is under 30 years old?
d. What is the probability that a person chosen at random purchases Brand X and he or she is under 30
years old?

Conditional Probability
The usual notation for “event A occurs given that event B has occurred” is A⃒B (A given B). The
symbol ⃒is a vertical line does not imply division. P(A⃒B) denotes the probability that event A will occur
given that event B has occurred already. We define conditional probability as follows:

For any two events A and B with P(B) > 0, the conditional probability of A given that B has occurred
is defined by

P ( A ∩B)
P ( A⃒B ) =
P(B)

Illustrative Examples:
1. A mathematics teacher gave her class two tests. Twenty-five percent of the class passed both tests and
42% of the class passed the first test. What percent of those who passed the first test also passed the
second test?

2. Consider the table below showing A as the age group under 30 years old who purchase 2 different
brands of shoes.

Age Group Brand X Brand Y Total


A (under 30 years old) 6% 34% 40%
A’ (30 years and older) 9% 51% 60%
Total 15% 85% 100%

a. What is the probability that a person chosen at random purchases Brand X?


b. What is the probability that a person chosen at random is under 30 years old?
c. What is probability that a person chosen at random purchases Brand X and is under 30 years old?
d. What is the probability that a person chosen at random purchases Brand X and he or she is under 30
years old?

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