Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Exercise
Making Predictions: Particulate
Matter Exposure
Section 6 Exercise 1
08/2020
 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Making Predictions: Particulate Matter Exposure

Instructions
Use this guide and ArcGIS Online to reproduce the results of this exercise on your own.
Note: ArcGIS Online is a dynamic mapping platform. The screenshots that you see in
course materials may differ slightly from the version of ArcGIS Online that you will use.

Time to complete
Approximately 90-120 minutes

Introduction
This exercise presents an approach to interpolating sample points to create a surface to
analyze. The result is a map showing long-term particulate matter exposure. Although the
data is real, the scenario, analysis, and resulting decisions are hypothetical.
The purpose of this exercise is to show how you can use a GIS to perform interpolation.

Exercise scenario
Grant funding is being made available for cardiopulmonary rehabilitation programs across
California. These programs offer chronic disease management with proven cost-effectiveness,
yet such programs are frequently underused.
The funding body believes that underuse may be due to lacking services in certain areas or
due to physicians not referring enough people. Organizers want to ensure that future
programs are fully utilized. They have commissioned you to perform some environmental
analyses and research. The body would like to establish where populations in California are
more exposed to air pollution, especially PM2.5 particulates. PM2.5 particulates are extremely
fine particles (smaller than 2.5 micrometers in diameter) in the atmosphere that pose serious
health risks. PM2.5 particulates contribute to lung disease and cancer.
Human-made sources of PM2.5 contribute more than natural sources, with emissions of PM2.5
from road vehicles being particularly significant. Levels of PM2.5 close to roadsides are often
much higher than levels in background locations. Other sources include industrial emissions,
the use of non-smokeless fuels, and wildfires. PM2.5 particulates are light; they can remain in
the air for a long time and travel hundreds of miles. Given these characteristics, there will
always be a continuous background level of PM2.5, but it will vary spatially.
What to analyze?

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Certain populations, such as children and the elderly, are more susceptible to harm from fine
particulate matter. The funding body has requested a report that shows populations living in
areas where exposure exceeds state and federal standards for ambient air quality. PM2.5
monitors are required in large metropolitan areas. Small cities and rural areas have
supplementary monitors, some of which provide measurements of the long-range transport of
fine particles. Monitoring is focused on the most heavily polluted or densely populated areas
so that these monitors can establish peak concentrations.

Map showing predicted particulate matter exposure values for places in California.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

In this exercise, you will use the ArcGIS Online mapping platform to perform the following
tasks:

• Work with map layers.

• Change feature symbology.
• Create a choropleth map.
• Examine attribute data.
• Find locations.
• Calculate statistics.
• Filter layer data.
• Interpolate points.

Approach
GIS is a tool that can provide you with information to help you answer questions.
Frame the question
When approaching your analysis, the first task is to frame the question.
In this exercise, the analysis question can be framed as follows:
Where are people more exposed to air pollution?
Define analysis criteria
The next task is to consider the criteria associated with the question. What information do you
need to answer this question? How can you use the GIS to represent, analyze, and assess the
criteria?
Your map must show locations with higher particulate matter exposure levels, as well as
populations of a certain age group.
Based on the scenario and criteria, you will need to accomplish these tasks:

• Determine which areas within the study area have particulate matter levels exceeding
state regulation values.
• Determine which areas within the study area have particulate matter levels exceeding
federal regulation values.
• Determine the ages of the population living in these areas.
• Identify areas that have higher particulate matter levels and larger elderly populations.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Note: This exercise focuses primarily on particulate matter exposure and the elderly. You
could perform the same analyses with children as the target population, because this group is
also harmed by PM2.5 exposure.
Now, start to think in terms of spatial analysis. Ask yourself the following:
What information do I need to address this question?
For this exercise, the layers provide information related to the analysis question, including the
following:

• The study area boundary to define the area of interest

• The location of particulate matter pollution monitoring sites (sites have monitoring
stations)
• Places people live based on U.S. Census locations

Which layers do I need for this map?

For this exercise, you need several layers:

• A layer containing the state of California boundaries

• An annual particulate matter monitoring sites layer
• A layer of populated places defined by the U.S. Census Bureau

Note: This example provides a start point. In the real world, an analysis like this would likely
involve more factors and criteria.
Technical notes

1. You will make full use of web mapping services throughout this course. You will need a
robust web connection to complete this exercise and the exercises that follow.
2. Use the latest version of Google Chrome, Mozilla Firefox, or Microsoft Edge. Other web
browsers may not display your maps and apps correctly.

Note: For information on supported browsers for ArcGIS Online, go to https://

doc.arcgis.com/en/arcgis-online/reference/browsers.htm (https://bit.ly/2pIIN2T).

Step 1: Sign in and open the map

Using ArcGIS Online, you can create a map with the identified layers that you can then use for
your analysis. For this exercise, the initial map has already been created.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

a Open a new private or incognito browser tab or window.

To help prevent confusion between your ArcGIS Online accounts, we recommend that you
open a private or incognito browser window for all coursework.

b In your private or incognito browser window, go to https://www.arcgis.com/home/

item.html?id=69fa8e03d3954a49b17b9ea0b6d421af (https://bit.ly/3jdo546)

c Sign in to ArcGIS Online using the credentials explained at the start of this course.
Note: The Section 1 Exercise 1 PDF explains how to determine your ArcGIS Online credentials
(user name and password) for this course. If you have trouble signing in, please refer to the
Common Questions list on the course Help tab.

d Click the thumbnail image to open the map.

A map of the area of interest (https://bit.ly/2StKhwr) opens. This map shows particulate matter
monitoring sites in the state of California. The map also shows areas with a population of 200
or more elderly people (aged 65 or older).

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Initial map showing locations of particulate matter monitoring stations in the state of California. Legend shown for
context.

Step 2: Save a copy of the map

For the purposes of this exercise, you will save a working copy of the map.

a In the ribbon above the map, click Save and choose Save As.

b In the Save Map dialog box, for Title, replace -Copy at the end of the name with your
initials.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

c Click Save Map.

A copy of the map will be saved to your My Content collection.
Note: ArcGIS Online does not automatically save maps; therefore, you should periodically
save your map as you are working.

Step 3: Select a basemap

The initial map uses the default Topographic basemap. A different basemap would better
represent the thematic nature of the map data for this analysis.
In this step, you will select a different basemap.

a In the ribbon above the map, click Basemap.

b From the gallery, choose Light Gray Canvas.

The Light Gray Canvas basemap has a neutral background with minimal colors, labels, and
features. It helps draws attention to your thematic content.
With this new basemap selected, the features on the map become easier to see.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Step 4: Change layer names

It is helpful to have layer names that provide meaning for your analysis. You can rename layers
to support the intent of your map.
In this step, you will provide more intuitive names for two layers.

a In the left-side pane, click the Content tab to activate the Contents pane.

b In the Contents pane, point to the Annual PM25 layer name and click the More Options
button .

c From the context menu, choose Rename.

d In the Rename dialog box, type Annual PM2.5 Monitoring Sites.

e Click OK.
The new layer name is reflected in the Contents pane.

f Rename the Places layer to Populated Places.

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The Populated Places layer already includes concentrations of population, such as cities and
towns. The layer used in this analysis is a subset of all populated places in California because
it represents only those places with an elderly population of more than 200 people.
Next, you will change the feature display to create a more visually appealing map.

Step 5: Change the map style

In this step, you will change the style associated with the air pollution monitoring site features
to make them more visible throughout your analysis.

a Zoom out to see the entire state of California, which represents your study area.
Note: The default map extent does not include the entire state. To view the entire study area,
you need to zoom out.

b Change the symbol that shows the location of the monitoring sites to a 16-px blue square.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Note: First, try changing the symbol on your own. If needed, the steps are as follows:

• In the Contents pane, point to the Annual PM2.5 Monitoring Sites layer name and click
the Change Style button .
• In the Change Style pane, for Choose An Attribute To Show, confirm that Show
Location Only is selected.
• For drawing style, under Location (Single Symbol), click Options.
• Click Symbols.
• In the pop-up window, for Shape, select the blue square.
• Change Symbol Size to 16 px.
• Click OK to close the pop-up window.
• In the Change Style pane, click OK, and then click Done.

The map display updates to show the locations of particulate matter monitoring sites, as
symbolized by blue squares. The monitoring sites tend to be located in areas where people
live. This result is expected because the purpose of the sites is to monitor air pollution
exposure.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

To show more and less populated areas across the state, you will symbolize the features in the
Populated Places layer as choropleth.

Step 6: Create a choropleth map

Choropleth maps can reveal data patterns, showing the distribution of a phenomenon within
a selected area. Exploring the distribution of population across the state will highlight more
and less populated areas.
In this step, you will use graduated colors to represent the range of population as choropleth.
Remember that the range of population is contextual information that may help you interpret
the results of your analysis.

a In the Contents pane, point to the Populated Places layer name and click the Change
Style button .

b In the Change Style pane, for Choose An Attribute To Show, choose Population.

c For drawing style, under Counts And Amounts (Color), click Select.

The Counts And Amounts (Color) drawing style uses a color gradient to represent numerical
data.

d Click Options.

e For Divided By, choose AreaSqMiles.

This choropleth map shows population normalized by area, or population density. To turn the
raw population data into population density, you can normalize by choosing either
AreaSqMiles or AreaSqKm.
Note: Totals should never be mapped by area; they should always be normalized.

f Confirm that the theme is set to High To Low.

To show color ranges based on value, you will use a grayscale color ramp.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Note: Again, the population range is contextual information, so the choice of a grayscale
color ramp will help emphasize the most important part of the map: the PM2.5 values.

g Click Symbols.

h In the pop-up window, click the Fill tab, if necessary.

i Scroll down and choose the grayscale color ramp.

j On the Outline tab, accept the default Outline Color.

k Uncheck the box for Adjust Outline Automatically.

l For Line Width, set the value to 0 px so that you can see the gray values represented.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

m Click OK to close the pop-up window.

To further generalize your map, you will classify the data using the Natural Breaks classification
method. This method is useful for grouping similar values to maximize the differences
between the classes.

n In the Change Style pane, check the Classify Data box.

o Classify using Natural Breaks with 5 classes.

p For Transparency, move the slider to approximately 50%.

q Click OK, and then click Done.

The map display updates, and places are now represented in shades of gray, from light to
dark, indicating population density.
Note: With the map zoomed out, it may initially be difficult to see the areas.

r Zoom in to the Los Angeles area to see the more densely populated areas clearly.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Choropleth map showing graduated colors representing population normalized by square miles for places with at
least 200 people classified as elderly living in them.

The initial analysis included places with elderly population (people aged 65 and older) of at
least 200 people. Places are areas with a concentration of population, designated by the U.S.
Census Bureau. Places include cities, towns, villages, and boroughs.
You want to determine how many areas in California have more than 200 elderly people living
nearby and also contain monitoring sites.
Researchers have found that the biggest impact of particulate air pollution on public health
comes from long-term exposure to PM2.5. Long-term exposure increases age-specific
mortality risk, particularly from cardiovascular causes. Identifying areas with large elderly
populations will help identify where cardiopulmonary rehabilitation centers should be
established. Doing so may also highlight areas where increased referral rates would be
expected.
You can see that most places with population in this age group are covered by a monitoring
site. But how can you quantify that observation? Using spatial analysis, of course! Next, you
will determine how many of these populated areas (places) have monitoring sites or stations
located nearby.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Step 7: Examine the data

Before performing your analysis, you will first want to understand the data.
In this step, you will examine the attribute data for the layers in the map.

a Open the table for the Annual PM2.5 Monitoring Sites layer.
Hint: Point to the layer name and click the Show Table button .

According to the table, there are 98 particulate monitoring sites (or stations) in the state. The
table includes each site's location, address, yearly average particulate matter exposure,
maximum PM2.5 exposure reading, and average reading for Air Quality Index (https://bit.ly/
2dcjCeZ), or AQI.
Next, you will examine the data for the Populated Places layer.

b Close the table for the Annual PM2.5 Monitoring Sites layer.

c Open the table for the Populated Places layer.

According to the table, there are 929 places (cities, towns, villages, or boroughs) in the state
with an elderly population of at least 200 people. The table includes each place's unique
geographic identifier, total population, and population demographics, including the number
of elderly residents.
To confirm that the data only includes those places with an elderly population of at least 200
people, you can sort the values in the Elderly column.

d Sort the Elderly column in ascending order.

Hint: Click the column heading and choose Sort Ascending.
The lowest number in the field is 201. This result confirms that the Populated Places layer
contains the data that you need. You want to use all the values in the table, because they all
meet the criterion. The Populated Places layer includes only areas with at least 200 elderly
residents.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

e Close the table.

As part of your analysis, you want to find out how many PM2.5 monitoring sites are located in
areas with an elderly population of at least 200 people.

Step 8: Find locations with monitoring sites

You can use the ArcGIS Online Find Existing Locations tool to select features in the Annual
PM2.5 Monitoring Sites layer that meet the population criteria.

a In the Contents pane, point to the Annual PM2.5 Monitoring Sites layer name and click
the Perform Analysis button .

b Expand Find Locations.

c Click Find Existing Locations.

d In the Find Existing Locations pane, create a spatial query expression to find populated
places that have monitoring sites.
Note: First, try creating the spatial query expression on your own. If needed, the steps are as
follows:

• For Choose Layer Containing Features You Want To Find Using Attribute And Spatial
Queries, confirm that Annual PM2.5 Monitoring Sites is selected.
• Click Add Expression.
• For the first field, confirm that Annual PM2.5 Monitoring Sites is selected.
• For the second field, choose Intersects as the spatial expression type.

Note: In an intersect, if a feature in the first layer intersects a feature in the second layer, the
feature in the first layer is included in the output. A feature in the first layer passes the
intersect test if it overlaps any part of a feature in the second layer, including touches (where
features share a common point).

• For the third field, confirm that Populated Places is selected.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

e Click Add to add the expression to the Find Existing Locations pane.

f For Result Layer Name, type Monitoring Stations within Populated

Places_yourfirstandlastname.
Note: If you run the analysis multiple times, you will need to give a unique result layer name
each time.
The Save Result In field defaults to your account name; you do not need to change this value.

g At the bottom of the Find Existing Locations pane, uncheck the box for Use Current Map
Extent.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

The box for Use Current Map Extent is checked by default. This setting limits the results to
your current map extent. The map extent (https://bit.ly/2StbI9J) refers to the portion of the
map displayed on screen at a given moment.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

For this analysis, the study area is the entire state of California. You want to run the analysis on
all the records in the Annual PM2.5 Monitoring Sites layer—not just what is currently
displayed.

h Click Run Analysis.

Processing time for the analysis will depend on several factors, including the number of
features in the current extent.
The map display updates to show monitoring stations in places that have a population of at
least 200 elderly people. The locations are symbolized with blue circles by default.

i Zoom out to view the entire state of California.

j Save your map.

Recall from the original dataset that you had 98 monitoring sites. You can now identify how
many of those sites are located within populated places by examining the result layer data.

Step 9: Examine attribute data

In this step, you will review the result data.

a Open the table for the Monitoring Stations Within Populated Places layer.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

b Scroll through the table and examine the data.

The analysis shows that there are 81 monitoring stations located in populated areas with at
least 200 people classified as elderly.
A quick calculation (81 divided by 98 and then multiplied by 100) shows that 83% (when
rounded up) of the monitoring stations are located in areas with a substantial elderly
population. This calculation helps you feel confident that coverage is typically good across the
state.

c Close the table.

Step 10: Perform a visual assessment

You can see that most monitoring stations are located near populated places. If you zoom and
pan the map, a few stations appear to be farther away from their nearest city or town. By
gaining a visual understanding of the range of distances from populated places to the nearest
monitoring station, you will be better prepared to interpret the results of later analysis steps.
For instance, you might consider a measurement from a more distant monitoring station to be
less representative than a closer monitoring station. For places where the closest monitoring
station is relatively remote, your analysis results would be more uncertain.

a In the Find Address Or Place field above the map display, type Needles, CA and press
Enter.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Needles is a small town in the southeastern part of the state near the border of California and
Arizona that appears to be some distance from the nearest monitoring station.

b Close the Search Result pop-up.

c Click the city name to view an information pop-up window.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

The information pop-up window includes the number of people living in the area who are
identified as elderly.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Note: If you close the information pop-up window, the city of Needles will no longer be
selected on the map.

d Zoom out until you see the locations of nearby monitoring stations to the west (about four
clicks using the Zoom Out button on the map display).

There are several monitoring stations located approximately the same distance from Needles.
You can use the ArcGIS Online Measure tool to measure the distance from the city to a
monitoring station.

Step 11: Measure distance

After noticing that Needles, California, is relatively far from any monitoring station, you want
to know the approximate distance of that city to the nearest monitoring station. You can use
the Measure tool to measure this distance.
In this step, you will measure the straight line, or Euclidean, distance between two features on
the map.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

a From ribbon above the map, click Measure .

Note: The information pop-up window is automatically closed.

b In the Find Area, Length, Or Location pop-up window, click the Distance button .
The default unit of measurement is Miles.

c Click the map once on the approximate location of the city of Needles, California (near
the eastern border of California, just north of Lake Havasu City, Arizona).
A small circle appears, along with a blue line that represents the distance measurement.

d Double-click the blue monitoring station circle that looks as if it is nearest the city of
Needles, California.
Note: You may need to pan the map to see the monitoring stations.
The distance in miles is displayed in the Measurement Result area of the Find Area, Length,
Or Location pop-up window.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

The measurement is not exact; depending on which part of the area you clicked, the result
may vary by a few miles. Most measurements will be between 112 and 120 miles from the
populated area to the nearest monitoring station. This measurement gives you a general idea
of the distance for one of the stations. However, you want to identify how close the nearest
monitoring station is to each populated place in the study area. Manually measuring each of
these distances would be tedious.

e Close the Find Area, Length, Or Location pop-up window.

f Click the Default Extent button .

Distance is an important piece of information. You can determine the distance between
geographic features on a map using proximity analysis. You decide to use distance
measurements to identify the closest monitoring station to each populated place included in
your study. Reporting the single closest monitoring station measurement for each populated

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

place will not give you a complete picture of PM2.5 exposure. However, it will help you start
to understand where exposed populations are located.

Step 12: Find the nearest feature

Next, you want to find out how close the nearest monitoring station site is to each place.
The ArcGIS Use Proximity tools can be used to help you answer one of the most common
questions posed in spatial analysis: What is near what?

a Turn off the Annual PM2.5 Monitoring Sites layer.

b Turn off the Monitoring Stations Within Populated Places layer.

c Point to the Populated Places layer name and click the Perform Analysis button .

d Expand Use Proximity.

You can use the ArcGIS Online Find Nearest tool to find the nearest monitoring station site to
each place that meets the population criterion. The Find Nearest tool finds the nearest
features and reports and ranks the distance to the nearby features. It returns a layer
containing the nearest features and a line layer that links the start locations to their nearest
locations. The line layer contains information about the start and nearest locations and the
distances between.

e Click Find Nearest.

f In the Find Nearest pane, for Specify The Starting Locations, choose Populated Places.

g For Find The Nearest Locations In, choose Annual PM2.5 Monitoring Sites.

h For Measure, accept the default Line Distance.

You only want to find the nearest monitoring station and one value (air pollution), so you want
to find the one station closest to each place.

i For Limit The Number Of Nearest Locations To, accept the default of 1.

j For Limit The Search Range To, increase the value to 120 miles.
Based on your visual assessment and measurement examples, you decide to slightly increase
the search range. This increase will likely ensure that your results include all the monitoring
stations from your original dataset.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

k For Result Layer Name, type Nearest Monitoring Sites to Populated

Places_yourfirstandlastname.
Note: If you run the analysis multiple times, you will need to give a unique result layer name
each time.
The Save Result In field defaults to your account name; you do not need to change this value.

l At the bottom of the Find Nearest pane, uncheck the box for Use Current Map Extent.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

The box for Use Current Map Extent is checked by default. This setting limits the results to
your current map extent. The map extent (https://bit.ly/2StbI9J) refers to the portion of the
map displayed on screen at a given moment.
For this analysis, the study area is the entire state of California. You want to run the analysis on
all the records in the Populated Places layer—not just what is currently displayed.

m Click Run Analysis.

The map display updates, and the result shows connecting lines from the monitoring station
sites to places. In the Contents pane, two results layers appear: one representing the nearest
monitoring station sites, and the other representing the connecting lines from the monitoring
station sites to the places that are nearest to them.

n View the map legend.

o Zoom in to the area near San Francisco.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

The connecting lines are drawn from the monitoring station point feature to the edge of the
nearest place area features.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Step 13: Examine the data

It is important to verify that the number of features in the result layer table matches the
number of input features. In the original analysis, there were 98 features representing the
monitoring station sites.
In this step, you will look at the result layer table to confirm that the number of features in
both layers matches.

a Open the table for the Nearest Monitoring Sites To Populated Places layer.

This data is from the original Annual PM2.5 Monitoring Sites layer. The number of features
should be 98.

b Close the Nearest Monitoring Sites To Populated Places layer table.

c Open the table for the Nearest Monitoring Sites To Populated Places - Connecting Lines
layer.

The number of features is the same as the number of features in the original Populated Places
layer: 929.

d Examine the Straight Line Distance (Miles) field.

e Sort the field in descending order.

This analysis shows that the farthest place (Needles) is about 114 miles (183 km) from the
nearest monitor. Other places clearly contain at least one monitor. Some places even have
multiple monitors.

f Sort the field in ascending order.

You now have the range of distance values, from 0 miles to 114 miles. A value of 0 miles
indicates that the monitoring station is located in the nearest city.

g Click a row in the table, and the respective connecting line will show on the map in blue.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Hint: With a row in the table selected, click the table Options button , then click Center on
Selection to zoom the map to the selected connecting line.
Note: Because some connecting lines are relatively short, it may be difficult to see when you
click the associated row in the table. You may need to zoom or pan the map.
Explore the data and the features on the map and in the table. Where are the connecting
lines in relation to the monitoring stations? Where are the populated places, and where are
the closest monitoring stations?

h Close the table.

i Return to the default map extent.

You decide that it would be valuable to report how much air pollution is detected at each
location. This report will provide a rough idea of the importance of the distance from a
monitoring station to a location.

Step 14: Change the map style

You can change the style of the connecting lines to reflect the PM2.5 particulate matter value
at each monitoring site and the nearest place.
Next, you will change the line feature style to use the width of the lines to represent the
particulate matter values.

a In the Contents pane, point to the Nearest Monitoring Sites To Populated Places -
Connecting Lines layer name and click the Change Style button .

b In the Change Style pane, for Choose An Attribute To Show, choose Annual_PM25:
YEARLYAVG.
By default, the drawing style is set to Counts And Amounts (Size). This map style uses an
orderable sequence of different sizes to represent your numerical data or ranked categories.
Next, you will change the size and color of the line symbol.

c Click Options.

d In the Change Style pane, click Symbols.

e In the pop-up window, choose a dark pink (such as hex color #E600A0) to match the color
used for the monitoring stations.

f Click OK to close the pop-up window.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

g Set the Minimum Size to 1 px.

h Set the Maximum Size to 9 px.

Note: You can preview style changes in the map legend preview box.

i Click OK, and then click Done.

The map display updates, and the connecting lines are shown in varying widths representing
the pattern of pollution. By simply changing the width of lines based on the PM2.5 value, you
can better understand the pattern of annual average PM2.5 pollution in the state.

j View the map legend.

Your map now shows areas with higher annual average pollution values (represented by
thicker connecting lines). It shows areas with lower annual average pollution values
(represented by thinner connecting lines). Finally, it shows the distance from the monitoring
stations to these places.

k Save your map.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Given the difference between the federal and state regulations, you think that it would be
valuable to report results using both PM2.5 standards. Doing so will allow both California and
other states to see the difference in potentially affected population sizes between the two
standards. Using the value from the nearest monitor, you can estimate the population size
where the value exceeds relevant standards: the state of California ambient air quality
standards for outdoor air (12 μg/m3) or federal ambient air quality standards (15 μg/m3).

Step 15: Filter the data

You would like your report to include a map that shows populations living where exposure
exceeds state and federal ambient air quality standards for particulate matter.
You can filter the data to find areas where exposure is greater than these values.

a Create a filter to identify the populated places where the annual PM value exceeds the
state ambient air quality standard of 12 micrograms.
Note: First, try creating the filter on your own. If needed, the steps are as follows:

• In the Contents pane, point to the Nearest Monitoring Sites To Populated Places -
Connecting Lines layer name and click the Filter button .
• In the Filter dialog box, select Annual_PM25: YEARLYAVG as the field to filter on.
• For the second field, choose Is Greater Than.
• For the third field, type 12.

b Click Apply Filter.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Areas where the annual PM2.5 particulate matter exposure is greater than 12 ;g/m3.

The map display updates. Now, it shows only areas where annual average PM2.5 particulate
matter exposure is greater than 12 micrograms (exceeding California ambient air quality
standards).
The report should identify how many people are living in places where exposure exceeds
state standards. Your next task is to obtain statistics for these results.

Step 16: Calculate statistics

In this step, you will get statistics to identify the total potential exposed population.

a Open the table for the Nearest Monitoring Sites To Populated Places - Connecting Lines
layer.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

There are 208 locations in the state where people are potentially exposed to air pollution
greater than state standards.

b Click the Places: Population field heading and choose Statistics.

The sum of values represents the total population in the 208 areas. There are 11,423,778
people living in areas where PM2.5 particulate matter exposure exceeds state-recommended
levels.

c Close the Statistics pop-up window.

Next, you will check the federal levels so that you can include that information in your report.

Step 17: Edit a filter

Because you have already created a filter, you simply need to edit it to change the PM value.

a Edit the filter so that places with an annual PM value that exceeds the federal standard
value of 15 are used for the subsequent analysis.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Note: First, try editing the filter on your own. If needed, the steps are as follows:

• In the Contents pane, point to the Nearest Monitoring Sites To Populated Places -
Connecting Lines layer name and click the Filter button .
• In the Filter dialog box, click the Edit tab.
• For the third field, type 15.

b Click Apply Filter.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Areas where the annual PM2.5 particulate matter exposure is greater than 15 ;g/m3.

The map display updates. Now, it shows only areas where annual average PM2.5 particulate
matter exposure is greater than 15 micrograms (exceeding federal ambient air quality
standards).

c Examine the table for the Nearest Monitoring Sites To Populated Places - Connecting
Lines layer.

There are 58 locations in the state where people are potentially exposed to air pollution
greater than federal standards. You are pleased to see that the number of places where
particulate matter exposure exceeds federal standards is smaller than the number of places
that exceed state standards. You would expect that the total population number will also be
smaller.
Your report will also identify how many people are living in places where exposure exceeds
federal standards. You need to obtain statistics for these results.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Step 18: Calculate statistics

In your report, you want to include the total population living in the areas, as well as the
number of children and elderly.
In this step, you will calculate statistics to identify the population potentially exposed to
particulate matters exceeding federal standards.

a Examine statistics to determine how many people are living in these areas.

There are 58 places with 5,555,738 people living in those areas where PM2.5 particulate
matter exposure exceeds the federal recommended levels.
Displaying the population for the places allows you to add more information to the map. You
can see the area around Bakersfield and through the middle belt of California, where annual
average values are highest. However, in these areas, many of the monitors are located some
distance from populated places, and the population numbers are low. In Los Angeles, there
are several monitors; distances to the nearest monitor are much shorter, and affected
populations are much larger.
This analysis uses the particulate matter value from the nearest monitoring station. This
method is a common way of assessing air pollution exposure.
Particulate matter values are only known at sample locations, where monitoring stations are
located. Proximity to the nearest site may not be the best estimate of particulate values in
another location.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

b Close the Statistics pop-up window.

c Close the table.

Your concern with the approach of using the nearest monitor is based on your knowledge of
the sources of PM2.5. You know that it will vary spatially, and Euclidean distance may not be
the only factor affecting the distribution. You think that you could use a geostatistical
interpolator with the data from the monitoring sites. This method will allow you to use the
statistical properties of the measured PM2.5 samples to predict values across the state.
A different approach
Next, you will use a different approach to try to get a better understanding of true exposure
risks using geostatistical interpolation (https://bit.ly/31N3j3D). Because particulate matter is
wind-blown, exposure can vary. Simply living in an area with a monitoring station or nearby a
monitoring station does not necessarily mean that the exposure rates or levels are perfectly
accurate. There are other factors, such as whether you live near heavily traveled roads within
your location and which sources of particulate matter are nearby. Consequently, straight line
distance is not entirely the best method. Using interpolation, you can create a predicted
surface of PM air pollution.

Step 19: Interpolate values

You decide to interpolate the particulate values from monitoring sites using the sample point
collected values at monitoring stations—the same ones you used for straight line distance.

a In the Contents pane, point to the Annual PM2.5 Monitoring Sites layer name and click
the Perform Analysis button .

b Expand Analyze Patterns.

The Analyze Patterns tools help you identify, quantify, and visualize spatial patterns in your
data. You will use the ArcGIS Online Interpolate Points tool to predict values at new locations
based on measurements found in a collection of points. Your analysis will return areas
classified by predicted values.

c Click Interpolate Points.

d In the Interpolate Points pane, for Choose Point Layer Containing Locations With Known
Values, confirm that Annual PM2.5 Monitoring Sites is selected.

e For Choose Field To Interpolate, choose YEARLYAVG.

f Move the optimizer slider to Speed.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Note: You can optimize for either speed or accuracy. In this case, to save time, you will
choose to optimize for speed. Currently, Esri is updating the optimization for accuracy in
ArcGIS Online. If you try the accuracy or midway options on the slider, you may find that the
analysis will not complete, even after a few hours.

g Check the box for Output Prediction Errors.

Checking this box will ensure that a layer of standard errors for the interpolation predictions is
created. This is useful because the errors provide information about the reliability of the
predicted values.

h Expand Options.

i For Clip Output To, choose California.

Clipping the output will ensure that the interpolated surface does not extend beyond the
state boundary.

j For Classify By, choose Manual.

You are interested in analyzing people who are potentially being exposed to the higher PM2.5
levels. That information is defined by the state and federal standards (12 and 15 micrograms),
so you want those values as break points. The Manual setting will allow you to identify areas
that exceed standards.

k For Class Break Values, type 2 4 6 8 10 12 15 20.

Note: These values should be separated by a space. It is important that values cover all the
ranges in your data and include the two values of interest: state and federal exposure limits.

l For Result Layer Name, type PM Prediction_yourfirstandlastname.

Note: If you run the analysis multiple times, you will need to give a unique result layer name
each time.
The Save Result In field defaults to your account name; you do not need to change this value.

m At the bottom of the Interpolate Points pane, uncheck the box for Use Current Map
Extent.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

The box for Use Current Map Extent is checked by default. This setting limits the results to
your current map extent. The map extent (https://bit.ly/2StbI9J) refers to the portion of the
map displayed on screen at a given moment.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

For this analysis, the study area is the entire state of California. You want to run the analysis on
all the records in the Annual PM 2.5 Monitoring Sites layer—not just what is currently
displayed.

n Click Run Analysis.

The map display updates and shows the range of predicted PM exposure values.

o Turn off the Nearest Monitoring Sites To Populated Places and Nearest Monitoring Sites
To Populated Places - Connecting Lines layers.

p If necessary, zoom out so that the full study area is visible.

q View the map legend.

The map results show the prediction surface with prediction errors in the layer beneath it.
Areas with higher predicted exposure values appear in a darker color.
Interpolating the points allows you to clearly see the pattern of PM2.5 levels across the entire
area. To view even more information about the prediction, you will look at the prediction
errors.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Step 20: View prediction errors

The prediction standard error quantifies the uncertainty of the prediction. Examining the
prediction errors can be useful to determine error variance.

a Turn off the PM Prediction layer to view the prediction errors.

The accuracy of each location's prediction can be measured by comparing predicted values to
measured values. The map of prediction errors shows the square root of the prediction
variance (standard error), associated with the difference between the true and predicted
values at each location.
In this map's symbology, lighter-colored areas have a more accurate prediction values at each
location (less uncertainty), and red areas have much less accuracy (more uncertainty). You can
compare this prediction error surface to the monitoring station layer. You can see that areas of
lower uncertainty are generally also areas with denser distribution of monitoring stations.
You can see that the greatest errors are in the eastern part of the state, as you would expect.
The prediction variability tends to be smaller where measurements are denser and larger
where the observed data are more sparse. Using this surface will allow others to clearly see
areas of higher uncertainty and then better interpret the maps.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

b In the Contents pane, turn the PM Prediction layer back on.

c Save your map.

Next, you want to find places that have predicted PM2.5 values that exceed the state
standard of 12 micrograms, followed by areas that exceed the federal standard of 15
micrograms.

Step 21: Find existing locations - State levels

You will again use location analysis to find the areas that have predicted values that are at or
exceeding the state and federal standard exposure levels. The Find Existing Locations tool
can be used for selecting existing features to identify areas that meet the specified criteria.
First, you will focus on the state exposure levels.

a In the Contents pane, point to the Populated Places layer name and click the Perform
Analysis button .

b Expand Find Locations.

c Click Find Existing Locations.

d Add a spatial query expression to find areas that intersect with the predicted exposure
values.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Note: First, try creating the spatial query expression on your own. If needed, the steps are as
follows:

• For Choose Layer Containing Features You Want To Find Using Attribute And Spatial
Queries, confirm that Populated Places is selected.
• Click Add Expression.
• For the first field, choose the Populated Places layer.
• For the second field, choose Intersects.
• For the third field, choose the PM Prediction layer.

e Click Add to add the expression to the Find Existing Locations pane.

f Next, add an attribute query expression to select only those areas where the predicted
yearly average values are 12 micrograms or greater.
Note: First, try creating the attribute query expression on your own. If needed, the steps are
as follows:

• Click Add Expression.

• For the first field, choose the PM Prediction layer.
• For the second field, choose Where (Attribute Query).
• For the attribute, choose Value_Min.
• For the fourth field, choose Is At Least.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

This setting will ensure that the results include areas where exposure levels are 12 micrograms
or greater.

• For the fifth field, type 12.

g Click Add to add the expression to the Find Existing Locations pane.

h For Result Layer Name, type Places Over CA Standards_yourfirstandlastname.

Note: If you run the analysis multiple times, you will need to give a unique result layer name
each time.
The Save Result In field defaults to your account name; you do not need to change this value.

i At the bottom of the Find Existing Locations pane, uncheck the box for Use Current Map
Extent.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

The box for Use Current Map Extent is checked by default. This setting limits the results to
your current map extent. The map extent (https://bit.ly/2StbI9J) refers to the portion of the
map displayed on screen at a given moment.
For this analysis, the study area is the entire state of California. You want to run the analysis on
all the records in the Populated Places layer—not just what is currently displayed.

j Click Run Analysis.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

k Turn off the PM Prediction - Errors layer.

l View the map legend.

The results show populated areas where there is predicted PM2.5 particulate matter exposure
of 12 micrograms per year or greater (exceeding California state standards).

m Zoom and pan the map to examine the results.

As you examine the results, you notice that some of the areas extend beyond the identified
exposure range areas (the interpolated values) in the PM Prediction layer. When you are
working with population data known for places (as area data), if any part of the area is
intersected by the identified exposure range, then the whole place is treated as potentially
exposed to that level.

Step 22: Examine the data

To better understand the results, you will examine the data.

a Open the table for the new Places Over CA Standards layer.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

There are 257 locations in the study area where exposure levels are predicted to be greater
than state standards.

The funding body will ask certain obvious questions about how many people live in these
areas and how many of those people are children or elderly. Examining statistics will provide
the answers.

b In the table, click the Population field heading and choose Statistics.

According to your initial analysis, the population currently living in areas with exposure levels
greater than California standards is 11,423,778. The total population in the prediction results
layer called Places Over CA Standard (14,434,417) varies, which is not unexpected. You used
the Find Nearest tool in the first set of analyses. The population value using the Find Existing
Locations analysis, based on a model adjusted for speed is larger. You expect that there
would be overestimating.
Note: You can determine the number of children or elderly living in these areas by getting
statistics on the Children and Elderly fields in the table.

c Close the Statistics pop-up window.

d Close the table.

e Turn off the Places Over CA Standards layer.

f Zoom the map so that the entire state of California is visible.

To complete your report, you will repeat this same analysis for the federal values.

Step 23: Find existing locations - Federal levels

In this analysis, you will use location analysis to find the areas that have predicted values at or
exceeding federal standard exposure levels.

a Create a spatial query expression to find areas that intersect with the predicted exposure
values.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

Note: First, try creating the spatial query expression on your own. If needed, the steps are as
follows:

• In the Contents pane, point to the Populated Places layer name and click the Perform
Analysis button .
• Expand Find Locations.
• Click Find Existing Locations.
• Click Add Expression.
• For the first field, choose the Populated Places layer.
• For the second field, choose Intersects.
• For the third field, choose the PM Prediction layer.

b Add the expression to the Find Existing Locations pane.

c Next, add an attribute query expression to select only those areas where the predicted
yearly average values are greater than 15 micrograms.
Note: First, try creating the attribute query expression on your own. If needed, the steps are
as follows:

• Click Add Expression.

• For the first field, choose the PM Prediction layer.
• For the second field, choose Where (Attribute Query).
• For the attribute, choose Value_Min.
• For the fourth field, choose Is At Least.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

This setting will ensure that the results include areas where exposure levels are 15 micrograms
or greater.

• For the fifth field, type 15.

d Add the expression to the Find Existing Locations pane.

e For Result Layer Name, type Places Over Federal Standards_yourfirstandlastname.

The Save Result In field defaults to your account name; you do not need to change this value.

f At the bottom of the Find Existing Locations pane, uncheck the box for Use Current Map
Extent.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

The box for Use Current Map Extent is checked by default. This setting limits the results to
your current map extent. The map extent (https://bit.ly/2StbI9J) refers to the portion of the
map displayed on screen at a given moment.
For this analysis, the study area is the entire state of California. You want to run the analysis on
all the records in the Populated Places layer—not just what is currently displayed.

g Click Run Analysis.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

h View the map legend.

The results show populated areas where there is predicted PM2.5 particulate matter exposure
of 15 micrograms per year or greater (exceeding federal standards).

i Zoom and pan the map to examine the results.

Using the interpolated annual average values, you can find the places and estimate the
number of people who live where the PM2.5 levels are greater than 12 μg/m3 and 15 μg/m3.
You will next identify how many people live in the areas with predicted exposure values
exceeding federal standards.

Step 24: Examine the data

To better understand the results and to obtain the values needed for your report, you will
examine the data.

a Open the table for the new Places Over Federal Standards layer.
There are 35 locations in the study area where exposure levels are predicted to be greater
than federal standards.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

To find out how many people live in these areas, you will examine the statistics.

b Get statistics on the population in these areas.

Hint: In the table, click the Population field heading and choose Statistics.
According to your initial analysis, the population currently living in areas with exposure levels
greater than federal standards is 5,555,738. The total population in the prediction results
(1,473,139 people) varies significantly compared to those obtained using the nearest monitor.
Using the nearest monitor, 58 places have monitored values of over 15 μg/m3. On the other
hand, when using interpolation, only 35 features are located in an area with PM2.5 values that
exceed 15 μg/m3.

c Close the Statistics pop-up window and the table.

Preparing results
You decide to show the values for each analysis method in a table and provide an explanation
for the different values.

Standards for ambient air Nearest monitor (first Interpolated surface (second
quality analysis) analysis)
California standard (12 11,423,778 14,434,417
μg/m3)

Federal standard (15 μg/m3) 5,555,738 1,473,139

The potentially exposed population is much greater for federal standards (15 μg/m3) when
taking the PM value from the nearest monitor than when using the interpolated values. Many
monitoring stations are located where PM values are expected to be high and therefore are
being monitored. Background locations, where the PM values will be lower, are less likely to
have a nearby monitoring station. The nearest station for many areas where the PM values will
be lower will in fact be several miles away and located where high values are recorded. The
variation in population is more pronounced using the federal standard, because the high
PM2.5 values occur across a smaller area than the more stringent California standard.
The variation over the area is perhaps better represented using interpolation. Interpolation,
however, relies on some monitoring stations being located where background levels are

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

monitored (as in this example). The geostatistical interpolation can use the variation of
sampled values to create a predicted surface.
You now have two layers that represent predictions for exposure to PM2.5 particulate matter
based on state and federal standards. You want to use these layers to support your findings.
You decide to make changes to create a better visual representation of the results.

Step 25: Change the map style

The default style for the layers uses blue to identify the areas that meet the criteria. In this
step, you will change the style of the features for clarity.

a Turn the Places Over CA Standards layer on.

b Change the symbol for the Places Over CA Standards layer to a solid dark red (such as
hex color #730000) shape with no outline.
Note: First, try changing the feature symbology on your own. If needed, the steps are as
follows:

• In the Contents pane, point to the Places Over CA Standards layer name and click the
Change Style button .
• For Choose An Attribute To Show, confirm that Show Location Only is selected.
• For drawing style, under Location (Single Symbol), click Options.
• Click Symbols.
• At the top of the pop-up window, click the Fill tab if necessary.
• Choose a dark red color (such as hex color #730000).
• At the top of the pop-up window, click the Outline tab and set the line width to 0 px.
• Click OK to close the pop-up window.
• In the Change Style pane, click OK, and then click Done.

c Change the symbol for the Places Over Federal Standards layer to a solid orange (such as
hex color #FF5500) shape with no outline.
Hint: Repeat the previous steps, using solid orange (such as hex color #FF5500) instead of
dark red.

d Turn off the Populated Places layer.

Note: You may need to zoom in to see the symbolized places.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

The results show the places over the state and federal exposure standards. Now, you want to
provide more details about the areas with exposure values exceeding standards. You will
create a custom attribute display (the information pop-up window) that displays when users
click a feature in your map.

Step 26: Create a custom attribute display pop-up

ArcGIS Online provides functionality to customize the information pop-up window associated
with the features in your map. You want to provide more details for the features that represent
areas with pollution exposure values exceeding state and federal standards.
In this step, you will customize the information pop-up window for the features in your map to
provide more details.

a In the Contents pane, point to the Places Over CA Standards layer name and click the
More Options button .

b From the context menu, choose Configure Pop-up.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

c In the Configure Pop-up pane, for Pop-up Title, accept the default title.

d For Display, choose A Custom Attribute Display from the drop-down list.
Note: The Show Pop-ups box will be automatically checked when you choose this option.

e Click Configure.

f In the Custom Attribute Display window, to the right of the font size, click the Add Field
Name button as shown in the following graphic.

g Choose NAME {NAME} from the context menu.

h In the area below the toolbar, click after {NAME}, add a space, type has a total
population of, and then add another space.

i Click the Add Field Name button again and choose Population {Population}.

j Click OK.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

The funding body will be interested in the number of children and elderly in each selected
place. You will add a chart to display these values in the pop-up window.

k In the Pop-up Media section, click Add and choose Column Chart.

l In the Configure Column Chart window, for Title, type Number of Children and Elderly.

m For Caption, type Children, Elderly.

Note: The caption entries will become labels for the columns in the chart.

n In the Chart Fields section, check the Children and Elderly boxes.

o Click OK.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

p Click OK to close the Configure Pop-Up pane.

q Click an area of the map that is symbolized as a place with values over the state pollution
exposure standards.

r In the information pop-up window, point to each column in the chart to view the
associated population values.
Note: Depending on where you click within an area, two or more records may pop up. You
can scroll through records; in the blue bar at the top of the custom pop-up window, click the
right arrow. Some records may be from areas that share a boundary with the area in the Places
Over CA Standards layer. Other records may be from the PM Prediction layer.

s Close the pop-up by clicking the x in the top right of the window.
Next, you will repeat the process and create a custom information pop-up window for the
Places Over Federal Standards layer.

Step 27: Create another custom attribute display pop-up

You will create a second custom information pop-up window, this time for the Places Over
Federal Standards layer.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

a In the Contents pane, point to the Places Over Federal Standards layer name and click the
More Options button .

b From the context menu, choose Configure Pop-up.

c In the Configure Pop-up pane, for Pop-up Title, accept the default title.

d For Display, choose A Custom Attribute Display.

e Click Configure.

f In the Custom Attribute Display window, click the Add Field Name button and choose
NAME {NAME}.

g In the area below the toolbar, click after {NAME}, add a space, type has a total
population of, and then add another space.

h Click the Add Field Name button again and choose Population {Population}.

i Click OK.

j In the Pop-up Media section, click Add and choose Column Chart.

k In the Configure Column Chart window, for Title, type Number of Children and Elderly.

l For Caption, type Children, Elderly.

Note: The caption entries will become labels for the columns in the chart.

m In the Chart Fields section, check the Children and Elderly boxes.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

n Click OK.

o Click OK to close the Configure Pop-Up pane.

p Click an area of the map that is symbolized as a place with values over the federal
pollution exposure standards.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

q In the information pop-up window, point to each column in the chart to view the
associated population values.
Note: Depending on where you click within an area, two or more records may pop up. You
can scroll through records; in the blue bar at the top of the custom pop-up window, click the
right arrow. Some records may be from areas that share a boundary with the area in the Places
Over Federal Standards layer. Other records may be from the PM Prediction layer.

r Close the pop-up by clicking the x in the upper right of the window.

Step 28: Save the map

You are satisfied that you have enough information for the report. You can now show maps of
the predicted value for each populated place in the state using the nearest monitoring
station. You can also use interpolated values across the whole state together with a measure
of uncertainty.
To complete your work on this project, you will save the map before exiting ArcGIS Online.

a In the upper left of the map, click the Default Extent button .

b In the ribbon above the map, click Save, and then choose Save.

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 Going Places with Spatial Analysis MOOC

The map will be saved to your My Content collection.

c Close your private or incognito browser window.

Conclusion
Collectively, the information from your analyses will allow results to be compared with past
findings. Your work will also increase confidence in the interpretation of current findings. You
hope that this information will support decisions related to future cardiopulmonary
rehabilitation programs.
In this exercise, you looked at an example of the type of problem that can be addressed by
applying predictive analysis and interpolation.

Copyright © 2020 Esri. All rights reserved. 65