Data

Quarterly Demand for Tahoe Salt

Period Demand
Year, Qtr t Dt
01,2 1 8,000
01,3 2 13,000
01,4 3 23,000
02,1 4 34,000
02,2 5 10,000
02,3 6 18,000
02,4 7 23,000
03,1 8 38,000
03,2 9 12,000
03,3 10 13,000
03,4 11 32,000
04,1 12 41,000

Quarterly Demand at Tahoe Salt

45,000
Demand

40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
01,2 01,3 01,4 02,1 02,2 02,3 02,4 03,1 03,2 03,3 03,4 04,1

Year, Quarter
 Moving Avg_5 week

Absolute Mean Squared

Period Demand Level Forecast Error Error Error
t Dt Lt Ft Et At MSEt MADt % Error MAPEt TSt
1 8,000
2 13,000
3 23,000
4 34,000
5 10,000
6 18,000 17,600 400 400 400 2%
7 23,000 19,600 3,400 3,400 1,900 15%
8 38,000 21,600 16,400 16,400 6,733 43%
9 12,000 24,600 -12,600 12,600 8,200 105%
10 13,000 20,200 -7,200 7,200 8,000 55%
11 32,000 20,800 11,200 11,200 8,533 35%
12 41,000 23,600 17,400 17,400 9,800 42%
13
14 43%
15
16

45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000 Demand
25,000 Dt
20,000 Forecast
15,000 Ft
10,000
5,000
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Tahoe Salt Forecasts Using Four-Period Moving Average

 Moving Avg

Absolute Mean Squared

Period Demand Level Forecast Error Error Error
t Dt Lt Ft Et At MSEt MADt % Error MAPEt TSt
1 8,000
2 13,000
3 23,000
4 34,000 14,667 19,333 19,333 19,333 57%
5 10,000 23,333 -13,333 13,333 16,333 133%
6 18,000 22,333 -4,333 4,333 12,333 24%
7 23,000 20,667 2,333 2,333 9,833 10%
8 38,000 17,000 21,000 21,000 12,067 55%
9 12,000 26,333 -14,333 14,333 12,444 119%
10 13,000 24,333 -11,333 11,333 12,286 87%
11 32,000 21,000 11,000 11,000 12,125 34%
12 41,000 19,000 22,000 22,000 13,222 54%
13
14 64%
15
16

45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000 Demand
25,000 Dt
20,000 Forecast
15,000 Ft
10,000
5,000
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Tahoe Salt Forecasts Using Four-Period Moving Average

 Exp Smoo

Demand Absolute Error Mean Squared Error

Period t Dt Level Lt Forecast Ft Error Et At MSEt MADt % Error MAPEt TSt
0
1 8,000 8,000 0 0 0 0%
2 13,000 8,000 5,000 5,000 2,500 38%
3 23,000 8,281 14,719 14,719 6,573 64%
4 34,000 9,107 24,893 24,893 11,153 73%
5 10,000 10,504 -504 504 #REF! 5%
6 18,000 10,475 7,525 7,525 #REF! 42%
7 23,000 10,898 12,102 12,102 #REF! 53%
8 38,000 11,577 26,423 26,423 #REF! 70%
9 12,000 13,059 -1,059 1,059 10,247 9%
10 13,000 13,000 0 0 0%
11 32,000 13,000 19,000 19,000 59%
12 41,000 14,066 26,934 26,934 66%

39.9%

α 0.0561165

45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000 Demand
20,000 Forecast
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Tahoe Salt Forecasts Using Simple Exponential Smoothing

 Holt

Trend Absolute Error Mean Squared Error

Period t Demand Dt Level Lt Tt Forecast Ft Error Et At MSEt MADt % Error MAPEt TSt
0
1 8,000
2 13,000
3 23,000
4 34,000
5 10,000
6 18,000
7 23,000
8 38,000
9 12,000
10 13,000
11 32,000
12 41,000

α
β

45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000 Demand
20,000 Forecast
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
 Deseasonalized
Demand Average of the Seasonal Deseasonalized Forecasted Forecasted
Period t Dt Same Quarter Factor Deman Demand Demand
0
1 8,000
2 13,000
3 23,000
4 34,000
5 10,000
6 18,000
7 23,000
8 38,000
9 12,000
10 13,000
11 32,000
12 41,000

Overall Average

REGRESSION
A
B
 Mean
Reseasonalized Squared
Forecasted Absolute Error
Demand Error At MSEt MADt MAPEt TSt

0.816215
Forecast Errors for Tahoe Salt Forecasting

TS Range
Forecasting Method MAD MAPE(%) Min Max
Four-period moving average
Simple exponential smoothing
Holt's model
Regression
 Demand Squared Absolute
Period t Dt Level Lt Forecast Ft Error Et Error Errror At % Error
0
1 2,024.0
2 2,076.0
3 1,992.0
4 2,075.0
5 2,070.0
6 2,046.0
7 2,027.0
8 1,972.0
9 1,912.0
10 1,985.0
2,017.9
α=