Landslides in Hong Kong under the influence of climate change

Dongsheng Chang2, R.W.H. Lee1, R.H.C. Law1, and L.T.T. Fong2

1 Geotechnical Engineering Office, Civil Engineering and Development Department, Hong Kong SAR Government
2 AECOM Asia Company Limited

ABSTRACT

The effect of climate change has created an acute challenge on various aspects of our lives. On the aspect of slope
safety, the Geotechnical Engineering Office in Hong Kong has been studying the impact of climate change on
landslides in Hong Kong with a view to gearing up the Slope Safety System as well as enhancing system and
community resilience towards the challenge. This paper gives an overview on the appraisal of the potential impact of
climate change on landslides in the local context given the projected climate. In this regard, the key meteorological
and environmental factors that have roles to play on landslides, including rainfall and other secondary factors such as
evapotranspiration and vegetation, have been considered. The potential variation of these factors under the changing
climate and the corresponding impact on landslides have been evaluated. More frequent and severe extreme rainfall
events could result in landslides of unprecedented number, scale and mobility. The secondary factors would mainly
alter the slope surface characteristics and groundwater regime, which generally lead to a higher vulnerability to
landslides. The appraisal provides valuable information to decision-holders in paving the way for managing the
challenge from slope safety perspective.

Keywords: landslide; climate change

1 INTRODUCTION (vii) drought.

Considering that landslides in Hong Kong are primarily
With a view to stepping up the preparedness of
rain-induced, rainfall is taken as a ‘primary factor’ and
slope safety for the sake of public safety, the
the other six factors are collectively referred to as
Geotechnical Engineering Office (GEO) has been
‘secondary factors’ in the present context.
studying the impact of climate change on landslides in
Attempts have been made to obtain the projections
Hong Kong. In this connection, the climate change
of these factors under climate change via various
influence on the key meteorological and environmental
channels including literature review and consultation
factors that have roles to play on landslides, including
with the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and some
rainfall and other factors such as evapotranspiration and
experts of the relevant fields. In case projections are not
vegetation, has been identified for a comprehensive
available, the key governing meteorological variables
assessment. This paper gives an overview on the
have been mapped out and their respective projections
findings of the assessment which shed light on the
have been collated to shed some light on the potential
importance of gearing up the city to manage the slope
changes of the factors in future. In view that climate
safety challenge ahead.
projections are fraught with uncertainties (e.g.
limitations of climate modelling and divergent
2 INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
predictions from different models) and dependent of the
LANDSLIDES
different scenarios of greenhouse gases concentration
Seven landslide-affecting meteorological or (viz. four sets of Representative Concentration Pathway
environmental factors (referred to as ‘factors’ hereafter) (RCP) adopted in IPCC (2013)), only the qualitative
being susceptible to the influence of climate change and terms of the projections are presented in this paper.
relevant to Hong Kong have been identified. These Using the information, a qualitative assessment has
include been made to reveal the effects on landslides in Hong
(i) rainfall, Kong and the assessment findings pertaining to each of
(ii) evapotranspiration, the seven factors are presented in this section.
(iii) vegetation,
2.1 Rainfall
(iv) sea level,
The correlation between rainfall and landslides has
(v) high wind,
been well established. Among the various aspects of
(vi) hillfire, and
rainfall, extreme rainfall events are of great concern
from slope safety point of view where these could result
in widespread and serious landslides. Under the
influence of climate change, meteorologists are of the
view that, apart from an increase in annual rainfall,
there would be an escalation of the frequency and
severity of the extreme rainfall events in Hong Kong
(HKO 2015). In fact, there are indications that the
short-duration rainfall in Hong Kong has already been
significantly affected, e.g. the maximum hourly rainfall
record since 1885 has been broken several times after
1966 with the time intervals between new records
getting shorter (Fig. 1).
Fig. 2. Clusters of landslides at Tai O, Lantau triggered by the
rainstorm in June 2008

An increase in evapotranspiration theoretically

maintains a higher soil matric suction and provides
additional margin against the build-up of pore water
pressure at shallow soil depth, which points to a
reduction in the potential of shallow landslides on
slopes. However, such apparent beneficial effect could
vanish rapidly under mild to intense rainfall particularly
for granular soil being common in the superficial layer
of slope-forming materials in Hong Kong as a result
rendering insignificant contribution to slope stability.
Fig. 1. Record-breaking one hour rainfall recorded by the This is evidenced by a local study pertaining to field
principal raingauge in HKO, Tsim Sha Tsui (Source: HKO). monitoring of the change in soil matric suction for
which suction was destroyed rapidly, in several hours,
The landslide challenge could be unprecedented under rainfall with intensity higher than 20 mm/hr in
along with the more frequent and severe extreme wet seasons (Leung et al. 2011; Leung & Ng 2013).
rainfall events. The frequency and scale of man-made
slope failures could increase. Washout failures could 2.3 Vegetation
become more frequent and serious due to the Vegetation plays a role in determining the surface
exacerbation of concentrated flow of surface water characteristics of slopes and water balance. Vegetation
given the increased short-duration rainfall intensity. growth involves very complex interactions of
Widespread natural terrain landslides and debris flows environmental, climatic and biophysical variables.
could occur, with escalated frequency, scale and Vegetation at different elevations and topography may
mobility. For example, Lantau Island was severely hit comprise different and wide ranges of species which
by an exceptionally intense rainstorm in June 2008 could exhibit a varying degree of responses under the
triggering over 2,400 natural terrain landslides (Fig. 2). changing climate. Within a habitat, some species may
Many of the landslides were sizeable with a much lose fitness and hence reduce in abundance and
longer runout than those that have previously occurred distribution, whilst there would be upward migration of
in Hong Kong. The landslides resulted in significant tropical species to higher altitudes. It is therefore highly
social disruption including the blockage of several key difficult to project the trend of vegetation growth from
roads that provide the sole access to remote rural species- or habitat-specific perspective, and limited
communities and evacuation of over 25 houses. researches have been conducted on the subject in Hong
Kong.
2.2 Evapotranspiration Whilst acknowledging the aforesaid limitations, an
As part of the water cycle, evapotranspiration is one attempt has been made to identify factor which may
of the factors governing the amount of water in the shed some light on the overall trend of vegetation
ground. Li et al. (2016) presented projections of growth under climate change for the context of
evapotranspiration across China including Hong Kong assessment of the associated landslide impact. In this
under the upper- and lower-bound greenhouse gases respect, vegetation phenology, which refers to the
concentration scenarios. From the projections, timing of annually recurrent reproductive biological
evapotranspiration in Hong Kong is anticipated to events such as flowering, breeding and migration
increase or exhibit negligible change. (generally speaking the growing season), may provide
some indications. According to the regional
phenology-related researches and studies conducted
worldwide (Piao et al. 2006; Wang et al. 2017), global
warming which in general drives the biological process
probably advances the start and delays the end of
growing season of vegetation leading to prolonged
growing periods. Aligning with the global warming
trend, vegetation growth in Hong Kong may be
promoted in broad sense alongside with the promoted
phenology, although any trend in reality is yet to be
supported by detailed study together with a
consideration of other factors that may govern the
phenology development.
Based on the deduced hypothetical trend of
promoted vegetation growth under climate change, the
implications on landslide have been assessed. It is
anticipated that the potential of surface erosion and Fig. 4. Sizeable rockslide exposing the penetration of tree roots
shallow landslides on slopes may be reduced given the to a considerable depth within the jointed rock mass.
beneficial effects contributed by vegetation
(Greenwood et al. 2004; Forbes & Broadhead 2011; 2.4 Sea Level
Tang et al. 2018), viz. (i) reinforcement of soil by root Variation of sea level could have a bearing on
anchorage, (ii) reduction of soil moisture by root water groundwater regime. Under the changing climate,
uptake, and (iii) protection of slope surface by shielding ocean expands as it warms. This, together with glacier
against direct rainfall and slowing down surface runoff. melting to some extent, has contributed to the global
The effects are generally confined to shallow depth rise in sea level. Hong Kong is aligning with the same
around the root zones whilst the potential of trend with the rise in sea level (HKO 2015).
deep-seated landslides may not be significantly affected. The rise in sea level would have a two-fold impact
On the other hand, promoted vegetation growth could on slope stability, viz. the elevation of groundwater
also bring about adverse effects on slope stability. table and the aggravation of coastal slope erosion by
Local experience shows that the growth of roots could enhanced wave action. The elevation of groundwater
penetrate into rock joint apertures and wedging the table could reduce the stability margin of near-shore
joints open rendering a higher potential of boulder/rock slopes. On the other hand, toe erosion of coastal slopes
falls (Fig. 3) or structural control landslides. Recently, a could be aggravated as the progressively rising sea
sizeable landslide on a rock slope exposed the level brings wave action to higher levels and permits
penetration of tree roots to a considerable depth within larger waves to reach the slopes through deepening of
the jointed rock mass (Fig. 4). The slope deterioration near-shore water (Bird 1996). The larger waves also
aggravated by root-wedging action coupling with some promote more severe turbulence exacerbating the extent
other factors had contributed to the sizeable landslide. of erosion. With the loss of toe mass, the overall slope
stability may in turn be adversely affected rendering
landslide impact to extend to the uphill areas (Fig. 5).
In addition, an increasing trend is predicted for the
magnitude of storm surges in Hong Kong (Lee et al.
2010). This effect, despite being transient, coupling
with the projected sea level rise associated with climate
change could further exacerbate the impacts.
Scar exposing an 2.5 High Wind
extensive network At times, the force of wind on trees can be
of tree roots significant rendering tree fall and load transmission to
slopes particularly under tropical cyclones. Under the
changing climate, the warmer sea surface would
provide additional heat energy to intensify tropical
cyclones. According to IPCC (2013), there is a global
increasing trend of wind speed generated by tropical
Fig. 3. Rockfall contributed by root-wedging action. cyclones. Hong Kong is expected to follow the same
trend and this in effect suggests stronger high wind.
 occurred during periods of relatively lower humidity
level. According to the projections given in IPCC
(2013), the relative humidity of Hong Kong would
slightly decrease under climate change. Combined with
the temperature rise along with global warming, slopes
in Hong Kong could be more vulnerable to hillfire.
The potential increase in the vulnerability to hillfire
could bring about an adverse effect on slope stability.
Hillfire damages plant canopy and vegetation which in
effect destroys the surface protection of slopes (Fig. 7)
where beneficial factors against the occurrence of
landslides, such as the interception of rainfall and
lowering of the speed of surface runoff, would be
vanished. In this connection, slopes become more
susceptible to surface erosion before the
Fig. 5. Coastal slope possibly experienced an upward extension re-establishment of vegetation. On the other hand,
of failure following the loss of toe mass due to erosion. hillfire could alter the hydrological response of the
affected catchments. It causes water repellency in soil
The stronger high wind would render slopes more that could result in reduced infiltration, increased
vulnerable to landsliding including rock/boulder falls. surface runoff and more erodible soil which may in turn
High wind may cause uprooting of trees and root promote debris flow initiation (Zheng & Lourenço
levering resulting in exposure of bare slope surface 2018). Post-hillfire debris flows have been reported to
(Fig. 6) and loosening of the shallow groundmass that occur globally, e.g. United States, Australia and
favour rainfall infiltration (e.g. Forbes & Broadhead Mediterranean countries. The alteration of hydrological
2011; Gariano & Guzzetti 2016). It could also response of a watershed can render much less rainfall to
exacerbate the root-wedging action on rock joints trigger debris flows from burned basins, e.g. rainfall as
destabilizing metastable rock blocks and boulders. little as 7 mm/hr has triggered debris flows in southern
Moreover, high wind could induce drag force on slopes California, than from unburned areas and this could be
via trees further increasing the potential of local of concern given the little warning.
instability.

Fig. 7. Hillfire damage increasing the susceptibility to erosion.

Fig. 6. Tree fall exposing bare soil on a steep slope.

2.7 Drought
2.6 Hillfire Whilst drought reduces soil moisture and increases
The surface characteristics of slopes could be soil matric suction, it could wilt vegetation and weaken
altered by hillfire. Although there is a lack of studies root reinforcement effect on slope stability as a result of
on the influence of climate change on hillfire in Hong root degradation or dieback (Forbes & Broadhead
Kong, the projections of some meteorological variables 2011). The increased soil matric suction may in turn
shed light on its vulnerability under the changing increase the magnitude of repeated wetting and drying
climate. Local historical data established a strong cycles. For slopes comprising clayey soil, the soil
correlation between fire outbreaks and relative may exhibit shrinkage cracks. The weakening of root
humidity in that a higher number of fire outbreaks reinforcement together with the possible exacerbation
of slope deterioration under the amplified wetting and from concurrent multiple hazards (e.g. landslides,
drying cycles and shrinkage cracks development could flooding and storm surges), etc. Apart from system
render slopes more vulnerable to landsliding if followed resilience, community resilience to landslides under
by rainfall. Wang et al. (2018) presented projections of extreme rainfall conditions would also be enhanced. It
drought in the Pearl River Basin. The frequency, is imperative that the community maintains highly
duration and severity of the future drought events in the vigilant about serious landslides and be better prepared
Pearl River Delta would generally exhibit no significant to deal with extreme rainfall events, acknowledging
variation under climate change, particularly for the that it is neither practical nor cost-effective to rely
coastal cities including Hong Kong. Given the lack of a solely on engineering solutions to manage the risk.
prominent trend, drought would have little impact in
varying the degree of landslide risk in Hong Kong. 4 CONCLUSION
Climate change is liable to induce variations in the
3 DISCUSSION
meteorological as well as environmental conditions,
Findings from the qualitative assessment suggest bearing both direct and indirect implications on
that the more frequent and severe extreme rainfall landslides to different extents. The qualitative
events (i.e. the primary factor) along with climate assessment made on the seven identified
change would result in a direct landslide impact where landslide-affecting factors, viz. rainfall,
landslides could be of unprecedented number, scale and evapotranspiration, vegetation, sea level, high wind,
mobility. In respect of the secondary factors, they hillfire and drought, has revealed the potential impact
would alter mainly the slope surface characteristics and of climate change on landslides in Hong Kong. In
groundwater regime, generally leading to a higher essence, the more frequent and severe extreme rainfall
vulnerability to landslides. As regard the extent of events could result in landslides of unprecedented
landslide impact, the magnitude of projected changes of number, scale and mobility for the geological
the secondary factors are relatively insignificant in the conditions in Hong Kong. As for the above secondary
context of landslide and the changes are generally factors, they would alter mainly the slope surface
expected to take place in a progressive manner which characteristics and groundwater regime, generally
may not necessarily result in a notable impact on leading to a higher vulnerability to landslides. The
landslides. Comparing with that of the primary factor, understanding supports the various initiatives in place
the impact associated with the secondary factors should to enhance both system and community resilience that
be much less significant and to some extent this may be gears up the city in managing the slope safety
enveloped by the impact arising from extreme rainfall challenges ahead taking due account of the influence of
events. All in all, it is prudent that the more frequent climate change.
and severe extreme rainfall events would pose a
particular challenge on the slope safety in Hong Kong. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The GEO has been adopting a systematic approach
This paper is published with the permission of the
in managing the potential challenge ahead particularly
Head of the Geotechnical Engineering Office and the
towards extreme landslide events. In this respect, a
Director of Civil Engineering and Development,
number of studies have been conducted over the past
Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative
decade (Ho et al. 2017) which include taking stock of
Region.
relevant climate change studies, identifying the nature
and scale of credible extreme landslide events,
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