P O LITI C A L U P DAT E

We’ve officially entered the final stretch of the campaign cycle and the stakes could not be higher.
Democrats’ agenda continues to push further and further left, putting the freedoms we hold dear
in the balance. Cities across the country, all run for decades by liberal Democrats, are experiencing
rampant crime waves and mob rule.

Chuck Schumer and his liberal allies are already measuring the drapes in the Majority Leader’s
office. A Democrat Senate majority would mean having an activist liberal from Portland in charge
of the Senate Finance Committee, a target of a federal corruption investigation in charge of Foreign
Relations, and an avowed Socialist chairing the powerful Banking Committee.

The next few weeks will define the future of our country for generations to come.

This isn’t the election cycle anyone expected. We’ve lived through an impeachment trial, a global
pandemic, an economic downturn, and now angry mobs in the streets. Democrats are using an
army of high-powered lawyers and the liberal media to try to bend election laws to their will.
And we’ve seen an unrelenting onslaught of Democrat outside money attacking our candidates.

Make no mistake: the Senate Majority is at risk. Beyond the four battleground states of Colorado,
North Carolina, Arizona, and Maine, Democrats are going on offense in historically red states like
Montana, Iowa, and Georgia. They’re even eyeing states like South Carolina, where Jaime Harrison
just reported raising a staggering $10.6 million in August alone. But, despite everything, we’re in
this fight. We’re running smart and scrappy campaigns and fighting for every vote, every dollar,
and every hit. The NRSC Independent Expenditure (IE) has already spent $52 million to date.
That is already more than has ever been spent out of the NRSC and we aren’t done yet. By the end
of the cycle, we will have spent twice as much than the NRSC ever has. And we’re going on offense,
eyeing pickup opportunities beyond Alabama in states like Michigan and New Mexico.

We’re in for the fight of our lives for the next two months. The fate of the nation depends on our
success. Game time is here, and it’s up to us to hold the line.

THE FIREWALL
The Democrats have spent a staggering $100 million in four historically red states – Iowa, Montana,
Georgia, and Kansas. They know the path to the majority depends on them playing in traditionally
unfriendly terrain, which is why they’ve devoted so much time and money attempting to defy
gravity. These are must-win states for us, and while the math is on our side, we are taking nothing
for granted.
P O LITI C A L U P DAT E

IOWA
Iowa has been a more reliably Republican state in the past few years, culminating with Trump winning
the state by nearly 10%. However, Iowa is not immune to the national environment. Democrats have
spent $40 million here to date – more than Democrats spent the entire 2014 election cycle - but despite
all that, Ernst is still up on the ballot against Theresa Greenfield. We started spending from the NRSC
IE in June, and we’ve seen Greenfield’s negatives increase by 21 points, including by 12 points among
suburban women since early August. Joni Ernst is a tireless candidate, completing her 99 county tour
– “the full Grassley” – every year, and her work helping communities during the latest derecho storm
did not go unnoticed. Joni now leads among Independents and is tied among suburban women while
maintaining her strong support among rural voters and Republicans. But with an incredible $140
million spent or reserved for this race, the Democrats are going all out in Iowa.

MONTANA
Montana is so critical to the Democrats’ path to the majority that they dispatched Barack Obama
to personally recruit Governor Steve Bullock. After getting in just before the March filing deadline,
Bullock initially led a charmed life, raising substantial amounts of money and hoping voters would
forget about his ill-fated presidential run. But Bullock has never faced the kind of scrutiny he’s under
now, and voters quickly discovered he’s nothing more than a New York liberal in a Carhartt jacket. We
have been up with ads hitting Bullock for his radical positions and corruption since early July, and
his image moved from a whopping +35 to +4. That said, there is almost $100 million already spent
or reserved in Montana for the Senate race, and the Democrats have a spending advantage of two to
one from Labor Day until Election Day. In a state that President Trump won by 21 points, the math is
against Steve Bullock, but the Democrats are loaded for bear in the final stretch.

GEORGIA
President Trump won Georgia by five points in 2016, but the Atlanta suburbs have been trending
away from Republicans. Senator Perdue received 45% of the vote there in 2014, President Trump
received 40% in 2016, and Governor Kemp received 38% in 2018. Between the massive increase
in voter registration and the challenging environment, Georgia 2020 looks a lot different than Georgia
2016. Perdue has a strong story to tell as someone who has built a successful business career and put
that to work fighting for Georgia families. Perdue’s story is a strong contrast with Jon Ossoff’s history
of resume inflation and his almost impressive lack of actual accomplishments, with the notable
exception of his vaunted ability to light cash on fire in service of a losing campaign. David Perdue must
get to 50% to avoid a run-off and it’s all hands on deck to make sure Perdue gets a majority of the vote.

Kelly Loeffler continues outworking every candidate in the special election while Doug Collins is
proving to be exactly who we said he was: an uninspiring, lackluster, candidate with little or no appeal
to swing voters. The only significant role his spite-driven, political kamikaze mission will play is
ensuring an otherwise winnable seat goes to a runoff. Unless, of course, the DSCC manages to clear the
Democrat field for Raphael Warnock, giving him a clear path to 50% on Election Day and Republicans
a clear path to the Senate minority. Congrats, or something, to Doug and the band of merry idiots
running his campaign into the ground.
P O LITI C A L U P DAT E

KANSAS
Democrats were so desperate to put this race on the map that Chuck Schumer and his allies put
$5 million into a SuperPAC to boost failed candidate Kris Kobach in the Republican primary against
Congressman Roger Marshall. Seeing the polls tighten with the onslaught of Democrat spending, the
NRSC deployed Operation Scorched Prairie, a persuasion and GoTV program that ultimately yielded
over 2 million unique contacts in the critical final stretch of the election. Roger Marshall won the
August 4th primary with flying colors, but with millions already spent against him, the Democrats
are still eyeing Kansas as a potential pick up opportunity.

THE BATTLEGROUNDS
ARIZONA
Over the past three years, Martha McSally has been attacked non-stop by over $60 million from
Democrats and their allies and has been out-spent nearly two-to-one this cycle. On top of that,
her opponent Mark Kelly is the single most successful fundraiser in either party right now, raising
nearly $24 million this year alone. Despite all of that, this race is within the margin of error. We’ve
been advertising heavily here since early June, highlighting how Kelly will do anything for a buck
(or perhaps more appropriately, a yuan), and say anything for a vote. In just the last month, we’ve
moved Kelly’s image a net negative nine points among Independents, and a whopping negative 21
points among female Independents. When asked what voters have seen, read or heard about Kelly,
the biggest takeaway is still Kelly’s all-too-cozy relationship with China, and when asked what word
is most associated with him, “dishonest/corrupt/untrustworthy” has now surpassed “astronaut.”
This entire race comes down to Maricopa County, which accounts for 60% of the entire state. Data
has been erratic here, which tells us voters are struggling to make up their minds on who to vote for,
so whoever closes the strongest should win. Martha McSally is no stranger to tough fights: if you
want flashy, Mark Kelly’s your guy, but if you want a fighter, Martha McSally’s your girl.

COLORADO
Everyone remembers that Hillary Clinton won Colorado by 5 points in 2016, but they forget that she
got just 48% of the vote, while a former GOP governor running as a third-party candidate took, you
guessed it, 5% of the vote. President Obama barely crossed 50% in 2012, running 2 points behind
his 2008 result. The lesson here is that anyone who bases their 2020 political prognostications on
Colorado’s recent election results alone does so at their own peril.

Now that we’re in the final stretch, Cory Gardner is proving what we’ve said all along: he has the
ability to defy partisan gravity and deliver a win on the strength of his unique message. Gardner has
done great work to highlight his positive accomplishments, like the Great American Outdoors Act,
and has seen his image improve strongly among Independent voters. Meanwhile, our ads have been
focused on highlighting Hickenlooper’s repeated and high-profile ethics issues and his many abuses in
office that never saw the light of day before. We’ve seen Hickenlooper’s net favorability rating drop 20
points since he entered the race and it hasn’t hit the floor yet, while Cory has a maintained a positive
image, including among female Independents who view him favorably by 9 points.

We’re in a good spot in Colorado. And if this is race is mano y mano between Gardner and
Hickenlooper, Gardner wins every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
P O LITI C A L U P DAT E

NORTH CAROLINA
North Carolina will be a knife fight in a phone booth until the end in a state that is going to be the
epicenter of the political world. Nearly $100 million is reserved for advertising in the fall, and that’s
just in the Senate race. Thom Tillis has already been outspent by $21 million to date, with Democrat
outside groups leaning in heavily on healthcare and pre-existing conditions. Tillis’ opponent,
Cal Cunningham, started this cycle largely undefined but our IE began advertising here in early
July, hitting Cal for being a tax-raising liberal politician, and we’ve seen his unfavorables move
significantly among Independents and soft Democrats. North Carolina is definitely a purple state,
but it has a reddish hue. President Trump narrowly won in 2016 and when asked if voters prefer a
conservative or a liberal Senate candidate, the conservative candidate wins 52 to 37.

THE PICK UPS

MICHIGAN
Gary Peters’ numbers don’t lie: he’s incredibly vulnerable and is facing off against one of the most
dynamic campaigners on the map this cycle in John James. We spent heavily here right out of the gate
to define Peters as the out-of-touch, do-nothing politician that he is, and the James team has done a
phenomenal job telling his story and cutting through the clutter. A recent survey shows the race tied
– 46% to 47% – with James leading among Independents and with a commanding lead in the critical
collar counties around Detroit. James is uniquely capable of winning a broad coalition of voters in the
Detroit metro area and surrounding suburbs, which account for roughly half of the entire state. With
Democrat outside groups spending $17 million to attack James they are clearly seeing the same thing
that we are: Peters is in trouble and James is going to be a tough candidate to beat.

NEW MEXICO
We have seen two back-to-back surveys that show New Mexico within the margin of error for
Republican Mark Ronchetti against Democrat Ben Ray Lujan. Among voters who have an opinion of
both candidates, Ronchetti leads by 5% and is tied with Lujan in the important Albuquerque media
market which comprises 90% of the state. Ronchetti’s background as the Chief Meteorologist at KRQE
in Albuquerque is certainly a unique advantage; he has a +11% image rating with Independents while
Lujan is tied, and Ronchetti leads among Independents on the ballot by 6%. The Ronchetti team is
up on air telling his compelling story and hitting Lujan as being Nancy Pelosi’s top lieutenant. New
Mexico is a tough state for Republicans, but Ronchetti has the kind of personal, bipartisan appeal that
can pull him across finish line in this open seat.
P O LITI C A L U P DAT E

THE MICROCOSM
MAINE
The showdown between Susan Collins and Sara Gideon in Maine perfectly encapsulates the dynamics
of this election cycle. Maine is undoubtedly the toughest state on the map for us environmentally, and
yet Susan Collins enters this final stretch in a commanding position.

On a regular basis, both survey data and focus groups have shown that people in Maine want
experienced leadership in times of disruption and chaos – and that same data shows that Susan
Collins is who they want on that wall. Susan Collins has had $27 million spent against her this cycle
and yet she is still holding strong on her image and approval rating. They say “all politics is local” and
Susan Collins might as well be running for mayor of every town in Maine. She has one of the strongest
local brands in politics, and it shows.

While Collins focuses on her record of strong leadership and delivering for Maine, we went up with
ads in early June highlighting how dangerous it would be for Mainers to “gamble on Gideon.” Our
early investment in research paid off after we discovered that Gideon knew that a member of her
caucus had been accused of sexual misconduct by multiple high school girls and left his teaching
job because of it, yet Gideon did and said nothing for nearly six months.

Maine is a test case for both Democrat and Republican strategies this cycle. Democrats are banking
on a challenging environment and deploying nationalized hits backed by millions of dollars of outside
money to boost inexperienced candidates who are too scared to step on a debate stage. Meanwhile,
we’re focused on promoting how our candidates have consistently delivered for their states, localizing
each race, and using research driven specific hits on character and disqualifying policies.

There is no doubt the deck is stacked against us – the environment is challenging, outside Democrat
groups have seemingly endless resources, and the Senate majority is at risk. But candidates and
campaigns matter, we have strong candidates running exceptional campaigns, and we’ve been
there every step of the way supporting them.

We have less than two months to get the job done, and the stakes have never been higher.

425 SECOND ST NE WASHINGTON, DC 20002 (202) 675-6000