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MSC301 Sec04 Assignment02 PDF

Here are the weekly forecasts for the next four weeks for each product using the methods explained: Product 1: Week 15: 99.16 Week 16: 102.66 Week 17: 106.16 Week 18: 109.66 Product 2: Week 15: 43.33 Week 16: 52.00 Week 17: 44.44 Week 18: 44.44 I chose exponential smoothing for Product 1 because there was a clear linear trend in the data except for one outlier value. I replaced the outlier with the average of the surrounding values to better fit the linear trend. For Product 2, I used a simple intuitive approach by averaging the non-spike periods

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36 views6 pages

MSC301 Sec04 Assignment02 PDF

Here are the weekly forecasts for the next four weeks for each product using the methods explained: Product 1: Week 15: 99.16 Week 16: 102.66 Week 17: 106.16 Week 18: 109.66 Product 2: Week 15: 43.33 Week 16: 52.00 Week 17: 44.44 Week 18: 44.44 I chose exponential smoothing for Product 1 because there was a clear linear trend in the data except for one outlier value. I replaced the outlier with the average of the surrounding values to better fit the linear trend. For Product 2, I used a simple intuitive approach by averaging the non-spike periods

Uploaded by

Asif Mahmood
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Assignment 02

MSC301

Production-Operation Management

Section: 04

Presented to:

Md. Hasan Maksud Chowdhury

Assistant Professor

Presented by:

Asif Mahmood

ID: 15104113

Submission Date: 25th August 2020


Answer 12
1 2 3 4 5 6 Total
Fri 149 154 152 150 159 163 927
Sat 250 255 260 268 273 276 1582
Sun 166 162 171 173 176 183 1031
Total 565 571 583 591 608 622
Avg 188.33 190.33 194.33 197.00 202.67 207.33

1 2 3 4 5 6
Fri 0.79 0.81 0.78 0.76 0.78 0.79
Sat 1.33 1.34 1.34 1.36 1.35 1.33
Sun 0.88 0.85 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.88
Total 3 3 3 3 3 3
MA 0.79 0.78 0.78 0.78
(fri)
MA 1.34 1.35 1.35 1.35
(sat)
MA 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.88
(sun)

SA 0.79 0.81 0.78 0.76 0.78 0.79


(fri)
SA 1.33 1.34 1.34 1.36 1.35 1.33
(sat)
SA 0.88 0.85 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.88
(sun)

Answer of 12 (a) Answer of 12 (b)


SR 0.786
0.783
1.341
1.344
0.873 0.874

Answer of question (c)


Forecast of week 7 = 633.4
using simple average method
Fri 165.90
Sat 283.05
Sun 184.45
Answer 16
A. In my opinion I would say it’s a nonlinear trend. Although it might seem linear but I think it
would be trend adjusted exponential smoothing.
B. Yes, this would cause concern because I would not know the actual demand for the pain reliever.
Day Number Sold
1 36
2 38
3 42
4 44
5 48
6 49
7 50
8 49
9 52
10 48
11 52
12 55
13 54
14 56
15 57

C. Trend Adjust Forecast


Day Actual Demand Forecasted TAF Trend Estimate
8 49 50 49.70 2
9 52 51.70 51.79
10 48 53.70 51.99
11 52 53.93 53.35
12 55 54.77 54.84
13 54 56.09 55.46
14 56 56.74 56.52
15 57 57.60 57.42
16 58.43
MSE

Smoothing constant is given = 0.3


Initial forecast for week 8 is 50
Answer 19
Year
Quarter 1 2 3
1 11 14 17
2 20 23 26
3 29 32 35
4 38 41 44
Total 98 110 122
Avg 32.67 36.67 40.67

Relatives Year
Quarter 1 2 3
1 2.97 2.62 2.39
2 1.63 1.59 1.56
3 1.13 1.15 1.16
4 0.86 0.89 0.92

A. answer
Simple Average Relatives
Q1 2.66
Q2 1.60
Q3 1.14
Q4 0.89
M&L Manufacturing
Question 01. What are some of the potential benefits of a more formalized approach to forecasting?
Answer: The potential benefit of using a formalized approach to forecast is that it will be easier to utilize
the computer and easier to quantify the information. A less formalized approach is more likely to utilize
personal intuition. For a small forecasting problem intuition may involve personal biasness which maybe
reflected in the forecast. As the forecasting problem gets larger, it will be impossible to rely solely on a
less formalized approach because a person’s intuition will be unable to process the large quantity of
information.
X Y XY X^2 Estimated |(A-F) |
1 50 50 1 50.16 0.16
2 54 108 4 53.66 0.34
3 57 171 9 57.16 0.16
4 60 240 16 60.66 0.66
5 64 320 25 64.16 0.16
6 67 402 36 67.66 0.66
7 71.5 500.5 49 71.16 0.34
8 76 608 64 74.66 1.34
9 79 711 81 78.16 0.84
y=mX+c
10 82 820 100 81.66 0.34
11 85 935 121 85.16 0.16
m= 3.50
12 87 1044 144 88.66 1.66
13 92 1196 169 92.16 0.16 c= 46.66
14 96 1344 196 95.66 0.34
Total 105 1020.5 8449.5 1015 7.32 So, y=3.50X+46.66

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 0.56

Forecast for 99.16 ±7.32


week 15
Forecast for 102.66 ±7.33
week 16
Forecast for 106.16 ±7.34
week 17
Forecast for 109.66 ±7.35
week 18
Question 02. Prepare a weekly forecast for the next four weeks for each product. Briefly explain
why you chose the methods you used. (Hint: For product 2, a simple approach, possibly some sort
of naive/intuitive approach, would be preferable to a technical approach in view of the manager’s
disdain of more technical methods.)
Answer: With the exception of week 7 there is a linear pattern in the product 1 data. The demand in weak
7 is unusually high and does not fit the linear trend pattern of the remaining data. A simple and intuitive
way is to replace the demand for the 7th week with the average demand from the previous week and the
next week in the time series.
So, the result of week 7 would be instead of 90 replaced with, (67+76)/2 = 71.5
The demand for product two has complex patterns as there is a spike once every four weeks and
the values between the spikes are fairly close to each other. From the data for Product 2 reveals,
the data appear to be increasing at the rate of about one unit per week. Since, Intuitive Forecasting provides
extended capabilities in forecast generation; we can use this approach to average of the three non-spike
periods plus 1 to predict the next three non-spike periods. Therefore, in this case, the forecast demand
might be [(42+43+42)/3] = 42.33+1 = 43.33 to predict orders for period 15, and use the average of the
values for periods 13, 14 and 15 plus 1 [{(43+44+43.33)/3} +1] = 44.44 as a forecast for periods 17 and
18. The values of the spikes also seem to be increasing. The initial increase was 1 and the second increase
was 2. So, we can assume there will be third increase with plus 3 units and forecasts for period 16 will be
(49+3) = 52. Still, the fact that there is a limited amount of data makes this forecast riskier.

Period Forecast Estimate


9 42
10 43
11 42
12 49
13 43
14 44
15 43.33
16 52.00
17 44.44
18 44.44

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