The University of Zambia

School of Humanities and Social Sciences

Student Name: Kelvin Kauluka

Course: DEV 2254: RESEARCH METHODS IN DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

Lecturer:

Assignment 3

We often use inferential statistics to make decisions or judgments about the value of a
parameter, such as a population mean. One of the most commonly used methods for making
such decisions or judgments is to perform a hypothesis test. A hypothesis is a statement that
something is true. Discuss hypothesis testing in the context of research within the field of
development studies

We often use inferential statistics to make decisions or judgments about the value of a parameter,
such as a population mean. One of the most commonly used methods for making such decisions
or judgments is to perform a hypothesis test. A hypothesis is a statement that something is true.
This assignment discuss hypothesis testing in the context of research within the field of
development studies. In order to discuss the basics of hypothesis testing in detail let us now,
define what is meant by hypothesis.

Definition

Simply speaking, hypothesis is a unit of the inferential statistics that is the branch of statistics
which is used to infer information on the collected data which is used to test a claim about the
larger portion-called population based on the data collected from the smaller part known as
sample. In other words hypothesis testing is the process of staking claim based on the values
obtained from the sample. Hypothesis testing is an act in statistics whereby an analyst tests an
assumption regarding a population parameter (Kabir, 2016). The methodology employed by the
analyst depends on the nature of the data used and the reason for the analysis in any hypothesis
testing.

Let us take an example in order to drive home the point illustrated above explanation. A
manufacturer involved in the manufacturing of types claims that the average life of their tires
will last at least 70,000 kms. We want to test the claim made by the manufacturer. The process
we will adopt is to take a sample of tires, run them until they see how many kms on average they
have lasted. If the sample has lasted over 70,000 kms, then we do have the reason to believe that
the claim is correct and that all the other tires they produce will also last 70,000 kms miles.

In arriving at this conclusion, we may commit the following. We may incorrectly say “the tires
do not last at least 70,000 kms” when in fact they do last furthermore, we may incorrectly say
“the tires do last at least 70,000 kms” when in fact they do not. Thus, we may commit some
errors during the process of staking the claim to the hypothesis we have formulated. Therefore,
Hypothesis testing is an assumption about something which is taken to be true.

Having understood the definition of hypothesis, let us now understand the characteristics of
hypothesis. The following are the characteristics of hypothesis. Cohen (1988) points out that a
hypothesis is based on reasoning which appears to be justified. This simply means that the
hypothesis we have formulated should be based on the previous research and the hypothesis
should follow the most likely outcome not the exceptional outcome. For example, we should
form the hypothesis regarding the launching of new product on the basis of the previous data
which was analyzed and which prompted us to take further steps such as market research and the
like

The principle idea of a statistical hypothesis test is to decide if a data sample is typical or atypical
compared to a population assuming a hypothesis we formulated about the population is true
(Hacking, 2016). Here a data sample refers to a small portion of entities taken from a population,
for example, via an experiment, whereas the population comprises all possible entities.

Examples for its application-hypothesis testing applications can be found in all areas of science,
including medicine, biology, business, marketing, finance, psychology and social sciences.
Specific examples in biology include the identification of differentially expressed genes or
pathways, in marketing it is used to identify the efficiency of marketing campaigns or the
alteration of consumer behavior, in medicine it can be used to assess surgical procedures,
treatments or the effectiveness of medications, in pharmacology to identify the effect of drugs
and in psychology it has been used to evaluate the effect of meditation

How Hypothesis Testing Works

In hypothesis testing, Killeen (2005) clarifies that an analyst tests a statistical sample, with the
goal of providing evidence on the plausibility of the null hypothesis. Statistical analysts test a
hypothesis by measuring and examining a random sample of the population being analyzed. All
analysts use a random population sample to test two different hypotheses: the null hypothesis and
the alternative hypothesis. The null hypothesis is usually a hypothesis of equality between
population parameters; like for example, a null hypothesis may state that the population mean
return is equal to zero. The alternative hypothesis is effectively the opposite of a null hypothesis;
e.g., the population mean return is not equal to zero. Thus, they are mutually exclusive, and only
one can be true. However, one of the two hypotheses will always be true.

According toKilleen (2005), all hypotheses are tested using a four-step process:

1. The first step is for the analyst to state the two hypotheses so that only one can be right.
Under this stage, a researcher identifies a hypothesis or claim that we feel should be
tested. For example, we might want to test the claim that the mean number of hours that
children in Zambia watch TV is 3 hours
 2. Next step is to formulate an analysis plan, which outlines how the data will be evaluated.
In this stage, the researcher select a criterion upon which we decide that the claim being
tested is true or not. For example, the claim is that children watch 3 hours of TV per
week. Most samples we select should have a mean close to or equal to 3 hours if the
claim we are testing is true. So at what point do we decide that the discrepancy between
the sample mean and 3 is so big that the claim we are testing is likely not true? We
answer this question in this step of hypothesis testing.
3. The third step is to carry out the plan and physically analyze the sample data. Here, we
select a random sample from the population and measure the sample mean. For example,
we could select 20 children and measure the mean time (in hours) that they watch TV per
week.
4. The fourth and final step is to analyze the results and either reject the null hypothesis, or
state that the null hypothesis is plausible, given the data. Lastly, we compare what we
observe in the sample to what we expect to observe if the claim we are testing is true. We
expect the sample mean to be around 3 hours. If the discrepancy between the sample
mean and population mean is small, then we will likely decide that the claim we are
testing is indeed true. If the discrepancy is too large, then we will likely decide to reject
the claim as being not true.

It must be mentioned here that in the context of research within the field of development studies
or any field, the goal of hypothesis testing is to determine the likelihood that a population
parameter, such as the mean, is likely to be true. Furthermore, research and statistics form a
major role in Development Studies; by carrying out specific research, one can identify what is
hindering a particular country from further development and what solutions may be applied.
Furthermore, in the context of research within the field of development studies, hypothesis
testing helps in decision making and decisions made in hypothesis testing centers on the null
hypothesis. This means two things in terms of making a decision. Firstly, decisions are made
about the null hypothesis. Let’s take a courtroom example were, a judge decides whether a
defendant is guilty or not guilty. The judge does not make a decision of guilty or innocent
because the defendant is assumed to be innocent. All evidence presented in a trial is to show that
a defendant is guilty. The evidence either shows guilt decision: guilty or does not decision: not
guilty. In a similar way, the null hypothesis is assumed to be correct. A researcher conducts a
study showing evidence that this assumption is unlikely we reject the null hypothesis or fails to
do so we retain the null hypothesis. Secondly, the bias is to do nothing. Using the courtroom
analogy, for the same reason the courts would rather let the guilty go free than send the innocent
to prison, researchers would rather do nothing accept previous notions of truth stated by a null
hypothesis than make statements that are not correct. For this reason, we assume the null
hypothesis is correct, thereby placing the burden on the researcher to demonstrate that the null
hypothesis is not likely to be correct.

In the context of research within the field of development studies, hypothesis testing also
performs the function of testing theories. This implies that a hypothesis, when empirically
proved, helps u-development studies professionals in testing an existing theory. A theory is not a
mere speculation, but it is built upon facts. It is a set of inter-related propositions or statements
organized into a deductive system that offers an explanation of some phenomenon. Facts
constitute a theory when they are assembled, ordered and seen in a relationship. Therefore, when
a hypothesis is ‘tested’, it not only supports the existing theory that accounts for description of
some social phenomenon but also in a way ‘tests’ it (Carver, 1993). Furthermore, hypothesis
testing in any research text helps to describe social phenomenon. A hypothesis also performs a
descriptive function.

In addition, hypothesis testing in the context of research within the field of development studies.
Helps researchers to suggest social policy after a thorough testing procedure. A hypothesis, after
its testing, may highlight such ‘ills’ of the existing social or legislative policy. In such a situation,
the tested hypothesis helps development professionals in formulating or reformulating a social
policy. It may also suggest or hint at probable solutions to the existing social problems and their
implementation.

In addition, Hypothesis testing in any research saves as an investigator's ‘Eyes’. This statement
implies that by guiding the investigator in further investigation, it serves as the investigator’s
‘Eyes’ in seeking answers to tentatively adopted generalization. Furthermore, it focuses
Research: Without it, research is unfocussed research and remains like a random empirical
wandering. It serves as necessary link between theory and the investigation (Sheskin, 2004). It
Places Clear and Specific Goals: A well thought out set of hypothesis is that they place clear and
specific goals before the research worker and provide researcher with a basis for selecting
sample and research procedure to meet these goals

A real-World Example of Hypothesis testing in the context of research within the field of
development studies. Would be for example, a person wants to test that a penny has exactly a
50% chance of landing on heads, the null hypothesis would be yes, and the alternative hypothesis
would be no (it does not land on heads. Mathematically, the null hypothesis would be
represented as Ho: P = 0.5. The alternative hypothesis would be denoted as "Ha" and be identical
to the null hypothesis, except with the equal sign struck-through, meaning that it does not equal
50%.

In addition, Hypothesis testing is really a systematic way to test claims or ideas about a group or
population. To illustrate suppose we read an article stating that children in Zambian Compounds
watch an average of 3 hours of TV per week. To test whether this claim is true, we record the
time (in hours) that a group of 20 Zambian children (the sample), among all children in the
United States (the population), watch TV. The mean we measure for these 20 children is a
sample mean. We can then compare the sample mean we select to the population mean stated in
the article. Furthermore, Development Studies is a vast and rapidly expanding field of inquiry as
the word itself suggests, development continuously changes it is never static. The components
making part of development might increase or decrease throughout the years hence the role
played by hypothesis testing is crucial.

In conclusion, it can be mentioned that in hypothesis testing, an analyst tests a statistical sample,
with the goal of providing evidence on the plausibility of the null hypothesis. It has been
discussed above that Statistical analysts be in development studies or any research field test a
hypothesis by measuring and examining a random sample of the population being analyzed.
Therefore, all analysts use a random population sample to test two different hypotheses: the null
hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis. Finally, it has been learnt from the discussion that
Hypothesis testing is an important activity of evidence-based research and this statement implies
that a well worked up hypothesis is half the answer to the research question. For this, both
knowledge of the subject derived from extensive review of the literature and working knowledge
of basic statistical concepts are desirable.
References

Kabir, S.M.S. (2016). Basic Guidelines for Research: An Introductory Approach for All
Disciplines. Book Zone Publication, ISBN: 978-984-33-9565-8, Chittagong-4203, Bangladesh.

Hacking, I. (2016). Logic of Statistical Inference; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK.

Sheskin, D.J. (2004). Handbook of Parametric and Nonparametric Statistical Procedures, 3rd
ed.; RC Press: Boca Raton, FL, USA.

Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavior sciences (2nd ed.). Hillsdale, NJ:
Erlbaum.

Carver, R. P. (1993). The case against statistical significance testing, revisited. Journal of
Experimental Education, 64, 287-292.

Kelly, K. (2007). Confidence intervals for standardized effect sizes: Theory, application, and
implementation. Journal of Statistical Software, 20(8).

Killeen, P. R. (2005). An alternative to null-hypothesis significance tests. Psychological Science,