01.statistika Eda - NDK

PROBABILITAS DAN STATISTIKA
DOSEN NDK
PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS?
The word probability has no precise

definition, these questions have been
debated for several hundred years,
does not dictate a unique definition of
WHAT IS “probability”.
PROBABILITY
The term probability refers to the study
of randomness and uncertainty.
Everyone encounters uncertainty.
Unpredictable result are said to be
“random” or to “happen by chance”
www.telkomuniversity.ac.id | www.apkit.co.id 2
IS DAUNTING AND CONFUSING
Is a hard subject.
Students find it
Is a difficult hard.
PROBABILITY
subject Teachers find it
hard.
Text book writers
find it hard.
Is difficult – very difficult
to apprehend.
Sample Event
Space
Random
Experiment
Each message in a digital communication system is
classified as to whether it is received within the time
specified by the system. Each message can be received
either on time or late . If three messages are received,
use a tree diagram to represent the sample space of
possible outcomes. Each message can be received either
on time or late.
An automobile manufacturer provides vehicles equipped with selected
options.
With or without an automatic transmission
With or without a sunroof
With one of three choices of a stereo system
With one of four exterior colors (Black, Red, Yellow, Green)
If the sample space consists of the set of all possible vehicle types,
what is the number of outcomes in the sample space?
EVENT
Events are the primary elements of Probability
Events, and only events, have

EVENT probabilities. So that the concept
of event is fundamental to the
theory of probability
We shall generally use a capital
letter near the beginning of the
alphabet to denote an EVENT
Simple Event/Elementary Event, or Atomic event: If it is consists of exactly one outcome
Compound Events/Composite Events: If it consists of more than one outcome
SURE EVENT/CERTAIN EVENT
NULL EVENT/EMPTY EVENT/IMPOSSIBLE EVENT
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
INTERPRETATIONS OF PROBABILITY
The term probability has four interpretations.
AXIOMATIC
THE APPROACHES
OF PROBABILITY SUBJECTIVE
OBJECTIVE
CLASSICAL EMPIRICAL
(equally likely) (relative frequency)
PROBABILITY SPACE
If sample space  is countable, the set of all subsets of  is called a class, which is known
as the power set of , is then the set of all events.
A class of sets P(Ω) = class = ℬ, that contains  and , is closed under complements and
countable unions, is sometimes called -filled or -algebra of subsets of .
The members of such a class are called event space.
To each A  ℬ, P(A) is a real number called the probability of A.

We symbolize this by writing :
P: ℬ  ℝ and speak of P mapping ℬ into ℝ
Definition : Let  be a given sample space and ℬ the corresponding event
space. A probability function P is a real-valued function with
domain ℬ such that:
axiom 1 : P(A)  0 for every A  ℬ

axiom 2 : P() = 1
∞
axiom 3 : If A1, A2, A3, … are mutually exclusive events, then 𝑃 𝑗=1 𝐴𝑗 =
∞
𝑗=1 𝑃 𝐴𝑗
The triple (, ℬ, P) is called a probability space.

So what is....
STATISTIC
A statistic is a function of the
random variable observed in a
sample the statistic itself is a
random variable
STATISTICS
Statistics is the science of
gaining information from
STATISTICIAN
numerical data.
The statistician studies various inferential
procedures, looking for the best decision making
process for a given situation
Statistics, the art of drawing conclusions from imperfect data. In a nutshell,
statistics is a subject in which we learn facts about the real world through
observations.
Statistics is the science that deals with the organizing, summarizing, and
interpreting of numerical information, called data.
Statistics is the art of making inferences and drawing conclusions form

imperfect data. Data values are often imperfect, in that they convey useful
information but do not tell the whole story. Statistical methods can be used in
all parts of a study from beginning to end.
Population  Parameter Sample  Statistic
 A population is the set of all measurements of interest to the investigator
 A sample is a subset of measurements selected from the population of interest
is the entire collection of
is the collection of all
objects or outcomes about
things under study
which information is sought
is the entire groups

of people, animals
is a set of data that POPULATION or things about
characterizes some which we want
phenomenom information
is the set of all is the totality of all possible

items of interest in elements of interest in an
a statistical investigation
problem.
is a subset of data selected is the set of all elements of
from population a population that have
been observed
is subset of the is a set of data

population drawn from
SAMPLE population
is subset of the population, is a part of the population which we

containing the objects or actually collect information, used to draw
outcomes that are actually conclusions about the whole
observed
Statistics is the science of gaining information
from DATA
Data are of course

DATA Data are numbers
numbers, but they are
with a context
more than that
Data can be thought of as the numerical information

needed to help us make a more informed decision in a
particular situation
Classification of Data
RATIO
The ratio scale represents the highest level of measurement. In
addition to the characteristics of the interval scale, the ratio scale
has a true zero point as its origin, not like the interval scale, for
which the zero point is set by some standard.
ORDINAL NOMINAL
The interval scale DATA The nominal scale
of measurement is can be measured on one of measurement is
considered to be a of four scales at the lowest level,
higher scale than because there is no
the nominal scale order to the data
INTERVAL
The interval scale of measurement has the
characteristics of the ordinal scale, in addition to
having a meaning fulness in the separation between
any two numbers on the scale.
MEASUREMENT SCALES AND THEIR CHARACTERISTICS
SCALE CHARACTERISTICS EXAMPLE

NOMINAL Unordered category Sex of objects
Male = 1
Female = 2
Religion of subject
Political party
ORDINAL Order Rank in class
1st,2nd,3rd
Rank on personality
test : high vs low
Order, equal intervals, Temperature
INTERVAL
and arbitrary zero point 98,60 F
Raw score on a
statistics test.
RATIO Order, equal intervals, Height, Weight, Age
and real zero point
EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS
In EDA, the collected data is examined carefully.
STATISTICS STEMPLOT BOX PLOT
CONFIRMATORY DATA ANALYSIS

CDA or Statistical Inference offers us methods
for drawing conclusions from data.
A variation of the histogram was introduced as a tool in exploratory data
analysis by J.W. Tukey ; it is called the stem-and-leaf diagram or the stem-
and-leaf display.
A stem-and-leaf diagram is a good way to obtain an informative visual

display of a data set : x1, x2, …… , xn, where each number xi consist of at least
two digits.
To construct an stem-and-leaf diagram, we divide each number xi into two

parts : a stem, consisting of one or more of the leading digits and a leaf,
consisting of the remaining digits.
Example 1
The following are 32 scores on a statistics exam :
61 89 69 87 83 82 99 75 58 78 66 61 71 70 68 70
80 84 65 86 65 64 47 68 93 66 51 80 62 61 63 62
The unordered stem–and–leaf–display for this sample is:
Stem leaf
4 7
5 8 1
6 6 6 1 8 5 5 4 8 6 1 2 1 3 2
7 5 8 1 0 0
8 3 2 6 0 0 9 7 4
9 9 3
Ordered STEM PLOT
Stem leaf Frequency

4 7 1
5 1 8 3
6 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 17
7 0 0 1 5 8 22
8 0 0 2 3 4 6 7 9 30
9 3 9 32
BOXPLOT
Box–and–whisker display
BOX–PLOT Box–and–whisker plot
Box–and–whisker diagram
The Box-and-Whisker Plot is a graphical display that simultaneously
describes several important features of a data set, such as center, spread,
departure from symmetry, and identification of unusual observations or
outliers.
A box plot displays:
• Three Quartiles ( 𝑄1 , 𝑄2 and 𝑄3 )

• Minimum Value (𝑋𝑚𝑖𝑛 )
• Maximum Value (𝑋𝑚𝑎𝑥 )
• Interquartile Range / Hinges Spread / H-Spread  IQR = (𝑄3 - 𝑄1 )
• 𝑂𝑛𝑒 𝑆𝑡𝑒𝑝 ≜ 1.5 ∙ 𝐼𝑄𝑅
• 𝑇𝑤𝑜 𝑆𝑡𝑒𝑝 ≜ 3.0 ∙ 𝐼𝑄𝑅
• 𝑈𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝐹𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠(𝑈𝑂𝐹) ≜ 𝑄3 + 𝑇𝑤𝑜 𝑆𝑡𝑒𝑝
• 𝑈𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝐼𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑟 𝐹𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠(𝑈𝐼𝐹) ≜ 𝑄3 + 𝑂𝑛𝑒 𝑆𝑡𝑒𝑝
• 𝐿𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝐹𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠(𝐿𝑂𝐹) ≜ 𝑄1 − 𝑇𝑤𝑜 𝑆𝑡𝑒𝑝
• 𝐿𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝐼𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑟 𝐹𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠(𝐿𝐼𝐹) ≜ 𝑄1 − 𝑂𝑛𝑒 𝑆𝑡𝑒𝑝
• A data value X, to be a Mild Outlier if 𝑼𝑰𝑭 ≤ 𝑿 < 𝑼𝑶𝑭 or 𝑳𝑶𝑭 < 𝑿 ≤ 𝑳𝑰𝑭
• A data value X, to be a Extreme Outlier if 𝑿 ≥ 𝑼𝑶𝑭 or 𝑿 ≤ 𝑳𝑶𝑭
QUICK BOX-PLOT
THE FIVE NUMBER SUMMARY
The five-number
QUICK BOX-PLOT
summary of a
single groups of
numbers consists
of five “landmark”
LQ MD UQ
SCALE number in the
SMALLEST LARGEST distribution: the
Three Quartiles ( 𝑄1 , 𝑄2 and 𝑄3 ) median, the two
Minimum Value (𝑋𝑚𝑖𝑛 )
quartiles and the
two extremes.
Maximum Value (𝑋𝑚𝑎𝑥 )
Interquartile Range / Hinges Spread / H-Spread  IQR = (𝑄3 - 𝑄1 )
THE (REGULAR) BOX PLOT
The box plot is very similar to the quick box plot we have just learned
about, except that it also includes information about extreme outliers in
the data.
What is an outlier?
A value that appears to be atypical in that it seem to be far removed
from the bulk of the data called on outlier or a “wild” number.
Outlier Criterion
1. Define ONE STEP as the number that is 1,5 times the inter quartile
range.
2. Define the upper outlier threshold/upper fences to be the upper
quartile plus one step.
The outlier criterion can be visualized as shown:
LOF Q1 Q3 UOF
Q2
One step IQR One step

two step two step
LIF UIF
Outlier Criterion:
• A data value X, to be a Mild Outlier if 𝑼𝑰𝑭 ≤ 𝑿 < 𝑼𝑶𝑭 or 𝑳𝑶𝑭 < 𝑿 ≤ 𝑳𝑰𝑭
• A data value X, to be a Extreme Outlier if 𝑿 ≥ 𝑼𝑶𝑭 or 𝑿 ≤ 𝑳𝑶𝑭
1(𝑛+1) 2(𝑛+1)
• 𝑄1 =data ke 4
; 𝑄2 =data ke 4 ;
3(𝑛+1)
𝑄3 =data ke 4
• 𝐼𝑄𝑅 = 𝑄3 − 𝑄1 LOF Q1 Q3 UOF
• One step = 1.5 𝐼𝑄𝑅
Q2
• Two step = 3 𝐼𝑄𝑅
two step two step
LIF UIF
• UOF = 𝑄3 + two step
• UIF = 𝑄3 + one step Outlier Threshold
• LOF = 𝑄1 - two step

Q3
• LIF = 𝑄1 - one step LOF Q1 UOF
Q2
two step two step
LIF UIF
Cont’ Example 1
Stem leaves Freq. Cum
4 7 1
5 1 8 3
6 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 17
7 0 0 1 5 8 22
8 0 0 2 3 4 6 7 9 30
9 3 9 32
𝑄1 =data ke 1(𝑛+1)
4
= data ke
1(32+1)
4
= data ke 8.25
• data ke 8 = 62 dan data ke 9= 63
• 𝑄1 = 62 + 0.25 63 − 62 = 62.25
2(𝑛+1) 2(32+1)
𝑄2 =data ke 4 =data ke 4 = data ke 16.5
• Data ke 16 = 68 dan data ke 17= 69
• 𝑄2 = 68 + 0.5 69 − 68 = 68.5
3(𝑛+1) 3(32+1)
𝑄3 =data ke = data ke = data ke 24.75
4 4
• data ke 24 = 80 dan data ke 25= 82
• 𝑄3 = 80 + 0.75 82 − 80 = 81.5
IQR = 𝑄3 − 𝑄1 = 81.5 − 62.25 = 19.25
One step = 1.5 𝐼𝑄𝑅 = 1.5 19.25 = 28.875
Two step = 3 𝐼𝑄𝑅 = 3 19.25 = 57.75
UOF = 𝑄3 + two step =81.5 + 57.75 = 139.25
UIF = 𝑄3 + one step= 81.5+ 28.875=110.375
LOF = 𝑄1 - two step= 62.25 - 57.75= 4.5
LIF = 𝑄1 - one step= 62.25-28.875= 33.375
LOF= 4.5 Q1= 62.25 Q3= 81.5 UOF=139.25
Q2=68.5
Xmin= 47 Xmax= 99
One step One step

IQR
two step two step
LIF=33.375 UIF= 110.375
Example 2
1.The following are 40 Scores on a statistics exam. Construct a Stem–and–

leaf Diagram & Box-and-Whisker Diagram !
61 77 59 33 44 51 11 28 46 53
54 40 42 70 42 40 51 46 63 64
58 47 42 54 64 54 39 66 46 57
25 67 44 17 13 69 13 12 46 48
1.Stem–and–Leaf Diagram
Frequency
Stem Leaves
Cumulative
1 1 2 3 3 7 5
2 5 8 7
3 3 9 9
4 0 02 2 2 4 4 6 6 6 6 7 8 22
5 1 1 3 4 4 4 7 89 31
6 1 3 4 4 6 7 9 38
7 0 7 40
1(40+1) 1 1
• Q1 = Data ke = Data ke 10 = 40 + ∙ (40 − 40) = 40
4 4 4
2(40+1) 1 1
• Q2 = Data ke = Data ke 20 = 46 + ∙ (47 − 46) = 46.5
4 2 2
3(40+1) 3 3
• Q3 = Data ke = Data ke 30 = 58 + ∙ (59 − 58) = 58.75
4 4 4
• 𝑋𝑚𝑖𝑛 = 11 , 𝑋𝑀𝑎𝑥 = 77 , 𝐼𝑄𝑅 = 18.75 ,𝑂𝑛𝑒 𝑆𝑡𝑒𝑝 = 28.125 and 𝑇𝑤𝑜 𝑆𝑡𝑒𝑝 = 56.25
• 𝑈𝑂𝐹 = 115 , 𝑈𝐼𝐹 = 86.875, 𝐿𝑂𝐹 = −16.25 and 𝐿𝐼𝐹 = 11.875
EXERCISE:
1. Telah dilakukan percobaan pengukuran Noise Figure (NF) melalui
generator sinyal di Laboratorium Pengolahan Sinyal Digital Telkom
University. Percobaan dilakukan sebanyak 25 kali dan menghasilkan NF
sebagai berikut:
74 68 76 50 90 71 109 84 65 74 79 80 68
63 80 70 79 70 82 59 75 67 83 76 35
• Buatlah Box Plot untuk data statistik diatas!

• Periksa apakah terdapat nilai pencilan? Jika ada, data ke-berapa, berapa
besarnya & termasuk jenis pencilan apa?
2. The data shown in this table, represent the sample average throughput
(in Mbps) of a digital communication channel. Constructs Stem-Plot and
Box-Plot
94.1 86.1 95.3 84.9 88.8 84.6 94.4 84.1
93.2 90.4 94.1 78.3 86.4 83.6 96.1 83.7
90.6 89.1 97.8 89.6 85.1 85.4 98.0 82.9
91.4 87.3 93.1 90.3 84.0 89.7 85.4 87.3
88.2 84.1 86.4 93.1 93.7 87.6 86.6 86.4
86.1 90.1 87.6 94.6 87.7 85.1 91.7 84.5

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PROBABILITAS DAN STATISTIKA

The word probability has no precise

classified as to whether it is received within the time

specified by the system. Each message can be received

either on time or late . If three messages are received,

use a tree diagram to represent the sample space of

possible outcomes. Each message can be received either

Events, and only events, have

To each A  ℬ, P(A) is a real number called the probability of A.

axiom 1 : P(A)  0 for every A  ℬ

The triple (, ℬ, P) is called a probability space.

Statistics is the art of making inferences and drawing conclusions form

 A population is the set of all measurements of interest to the investigator

 A sample is a subset of measurements selected from the population of interest

is the entire groups

is the set of all is the totality of all possible

is subset of the is a set of data

is subset of the population, is a part of the population which we

Data are of course

Data can be thought of as the numerical information

SCALE CHARACTERISTICS EXAMPLE

STATISTICS STEMPLOT BOX PLOT

CONFIRMATORY DATA ANALYSIS

A stem-and-leaf diagram is a good way to obtain an informative visual

To construct an stem-and-leaf diagram, we divide each number xi into two

Stem leaf Frequency

BOX–PLOT Box–and–whisker plot

• Three Quartiles ( 𝑄1 , 𝑄2 and 𝑄3 )

One step IQR One step

One step IQR One step

two step two step

• LOF = 𝑄1 - two step

One step IQR One step

two step two step

One step One step

two step two step

LIF=33.375 UIF= 110.375

1.The following are 40 Scores on a statistics exam. Construct a Stem–and–

• Buatlah Box Plot untuk data statistik diatas!

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