lOMoARcPSD|5670421

An Introduction To Reliability And Maintainability Engineering

Reliability Engineering (Birla Institute of Technology & Science, Pilani)

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Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.

CHAPTER 2

2.1
1 1
a) R(100 ) = =.91 and R(1000) = =.5
(.001)(100) + 1 (.001)(1000 ) + 1
− dR( t ) 1 − d ((.001t + 1)−1 ) 1
b) λ ( t ) = ⋅ = ⋅ =.001(.001t + 1)−2 ⋅ (.001t + 1)
dt R( t ) dt (.001t + 1)−1
.001(.001t + 1) .001
= 2
=
(.001t + 1) .001t + 1
λ ( t ) is decreasing because λ ( t ) goes to zero as t goes to infinity.

2.2

a) R( t ) = e z
− 0t λ ( t ')dt '
=e z
−.4 0t t 'dt '
= e −.2t ' |t = e −.2t
2

0
2

− .2(1/12 )2
F (1 / 12) = 1 − R(1 / 12) = 1 − e =.00139
2 − ln(.95)
b) R( t ) = e −.2 t =.95 → −.2t 2 = ln(.95) → t= =.506 yrs
.2
2.3
a) R( t ) = z 100

− dR( t ) 1 f (t )
zt
.01
100
f ( t ′ )dt ′ = .01dt ′ =.01t ′ 100
t =.01(100 − t ) = 1−.01t 0 ≤ t ≤ 100

b) λ ( t ) = ⋅ = = 0 ≤ t ≤ 100
dt R( t ) R( t ) 1−.01t
c) MTTF = R( t )dt = z 100

0 z 100

0
(1−.01t )dt = t 100 2 100 2
0 −.005t 0 = 100−.005(100 ) = 50 days

d) σ 2 = z 100 2
0
t f ( t )dt − ( MTTF )2 =.01 0 t 2 dt − 502 =.033 t 3 z100 100

0
− 502 = 8333
. (days )2
σ = σ 2 = 28.9 days
e) R( tmedian ) = 1−.01tmedian =.5 → .01tmedian =.5 → tmedian = 50 days

2.4

z t ′ dt ′ = LMN101 t' OPQ

100

a) R( t ) = z1000
t
3
f ( t ′ )dt ′ = 9
10
1000
t
2
9
3

t
3
=
1
10 9 c t
10003 − t 3 = 1 − 9
10
h 0 ≤ t ≤ 1000 hrs

106 1
F (100) = 1 − R(100) = 1 − (1 − 1003 / 109 ) = 9
= 3
10 10

z
b) MTTF = t ⋅ f ( t ) dt =
1000

0
3
109 z0
1000
t 3dt =
10 ⋅ 4
3
9
t4
1000

0
=
3
9
10 ⋅ 4
10004 − 0 = 750 hrs

t3 t3
c) R( t ) = 1 − =.99 → =.01 → t = 3 107 = 215.443 hrs
109 109

2.5

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Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.

a) R(50) = e- .001(50)
=.8
1/ 2
− d ( e − (.001t ) ) 1 1 1/ 2 1 .0005
b) λ ( t ) = ⋅ − (.001t )1/ 2 == (.001t )−1/ 2 (.001)e − (.001t ) ⋅ − (.001t )1/ 2 =
dt e 2 e .001t
λ ( t ) is decreasing because λ ( t ) goes to zero as t goes to infinity.
R(T0 + t ) R(50 + 10 ) R( 60 ) e− .001( 60 )
c) R( t / T0 ) = → R(50 / 10 ) = = = =.865
R(T0 ) R(10) R(10) e− .001(10)

R(t + 10) e − .001( t +10)

d) R (t / 10) = = − .001(10) =.95
R(10) e
2

e − .001( t +10)
= .95e − .001(10)
= .859596 → t=
[ ln .859596] − 10 = 12.9 hrs
.001
2.10
a) Wear-out is indicated by an increasing failure rate.
− dR( t ) 1 − d (1 − t / t0 )2 1 1
λ (t ) = ⋅ = ⋅ 2
= [−2(1 − t / t0 )( −1 / t0 )] ⋅
dt R( t ) dt (1 − t / t0 ) (1 − t / t0 )2
2 2 2
= = Since λ ( 0) = and λ ( t → t0 ) = ∞, λ ( t ) is IFR.
t0 (1 − t / t0 ) t0 − t t0

F t I LF t I F −t IJ OP
z z
2 3 t0

R( t )dt = G1 − J dt = MG1 − J G
t0 t0

H t K MNH t K H 3 K PQ
0
b) MTTF =
0 0
0 0
0

LMF t I 3
O
=
− t0
GMH1 − t JK − (1 − 0) PP = t3
0 3 0
3
N 0 Q
c) R( t ) = (1 − t / 2000 )2 =.90 → t = 2000(1 − .9 ) = 102.63 hrs

2.14
L (1+.05t ′ ) OP
R( t ) =.1 zt
∞
(1+.05t ′ ) −3
dt ′ =.1M
N −2(.05) Q
−2 ∞

t
d
= 0 − −(1+.05t )−2 = (1+.05t )−2 i
R(10 + 1) (1+.05(11))−2
R(10 / 1) = = =.459
R(1) (1+.05(1))−2
L (1+.05t ) OP
MTTFbefore = R( t )dt = z 0
∞
z ∞

0
(1+.05t ) −2
dt = M
N −.05 Q
−1 ∞

0
= 0− −
FG
H
1
.05
= 20
IJ
K
MTTFafter = z ∞

T0
R(t / T0 )dt =
1
R (T0 ) zT0
∞
R (t )dt =
1
(1+.05(1)) −2 z
1
∞
(1+.05t ) −2 dt

L (1+.05t ) OP L (105 OP = 21
z −1 ∞ 2
. )
. ) M = 0 − M−
∞
2 −2 2
= (105
. ) (1+.05t ) dt = (105
1
N −(.05) Q 1 N .05(1+.05(1)) Q

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Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.

2.18
ka k k
(a ) f (t ) = k +1
; (b) λ (t ) = → DFR
(t + a ) t+a
− k +1 ∞
∞ ak ak (t + a ) − a k a − k +1 a
(c) MTTF = ∫ k
dt = = =
0
(t + a ) −k + 1
0
−k + 1 k −1

⎛ 1 ⎞
(d )tmed = a ⎜⎜ k − 1⎟⎟
⎝ .5 ⎠

a
⎛ 2t t 2 ⎞
a
t2 t3
2.21 (a) MTTF = ∫ ⎜1 − + 2 ⎟ dt = t − + 2 = a/3
0⎝
a a ⎠ a 3a 0

⎛ 2t t 2 ⎞ 2 2
⎜1 − + 2 ⎟ = .5; t − 2at + .5a = 0
(b)
⎝ a a ⎠
2a ± 4 a 2 − 2a 2 a 2
t= =a± = a (1 ± .7071) = .293a
2 2
Why not the positive root?

(c) R(a/3) = 4/9 = .444

2 / a − 2t / a 2 2(a − t ) 2
(d) λ (t ) = = = ; IFR
(a − t ) (a − t )
2 2 2
1 − 2t / a − 2t / a
(e) R(1) = .81; R(1|1) = R(2) /R(1) = .64 / .81 = .79

2.22 (a) R(t) = 1 - .000064t3 ; R(15) = .784; (b) F(10) – F(2) = .000064(1000 - 8) =
.063488
.000064t 3 = .5
(c)
tmed = 3 .5 / .000064 = 19.8425 yr.

(d) λ(t) = .000192t2 / (1 - .000064t3) ; IFR

25

∫ (1 − .000064t
3
(e) MTTF = )dt = [t − .000016t 4 ]025 = 25 − .000016(25) 4 = 18.75 yr.
0
(f) R(15) / R(10) = .784 / .936 = .8376

25
1 1 25

R(10) 10∫
MTTF (10) = (1 − .000064t 3
) dt =
.936
( t − .000016t 4
) 10
(g)
1
= ⎡15 − .000016 ( 254 − 104 ) ⎤ = 9.52 yr
.936 ⎣ ⎦

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Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.

CHAPTER 3
3.1
a)
R( t ) = e − λt = e − t / MTTF = e − t /1100
R( 200) = e −200/1100 =.834
b)
R( t d ) = e − td /1100 =.90
t d = −1100 ln(.90 ) = 115.90 hrs
c)
R( t med ) = e − tmed /1100 =.5
t med = −1100 ln(.5) = −1100( −.69315) = 762.46 hrs
d)
R( t ) = 1 − Prob(both components fail)
= 1 − (1 − Ri ( t ))2 = 1 − (1 − e − t /1100 )2 since components identical
R (200) = 1 − (1 − e 200 /1100 ) 2 =.973

3.2
R ( t / T0 ) = R ( t ) because of memoryless property
R(100 / 1000) = R(100) = e −.0004(100) =.96
P(T < 100) = F (100) = 1 − R(100) = 1−.96 =.04
R (1000 / 1000) = R(1000) = e −.0004(1000) =.67
P(T < 1000) = F(1000) = 1- R(1000) = 1-.67 =.33

3.4
5
λ (t ) = ∑ λ i (t ) =.001+.005+.0007 +.0025+.00001 =.00921
i =1
a)
MTTF = 1 / λ = 1/.00921 = 108.58 days
σ 2 = 1 / λ2 and σ = 1 / λ = 108.58 days
1
b) t.99 = − ln(.99) = 108.59 ln(.99) = 109
. days
λ

3.8
R ( 3000) = 2e − λ ( 3000) − e −2 λ ( 3000) =.95
By trial and error:
λ R(3000)
.0001 .9328
.00005 .9806
.00008 .9545
.000085.9493
.000084.9504
.0000843 .9501

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Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.

Therefore: MTTF=1/ λ =1/.0000843=11,862 hrs

3.11
a)
2 2
λ = ∑ λ i = ∑1 / MTTFi = 1 / 5 + 1 / 5 =.4
1 1

F ( 2 ) = 1 − R( 2 ) = 1 − e −.4( 2 ) =.551
b)
P(more than 1 failure in first 5 hrs)=1-P(no failures in first 5 hrs)-P(1 failure in first 5 hrs)
= 1 − p0 (5) − p1 (5) = 1 − e − λt − e − λt ( λt ) = 1 − e −.4(5) − e −.4(5) (.4 ⋅ 5) =.595
c)
No. Would expect batteries to have an increasing failure rate (IFR) due to wear-out.

3.12
a)
R (t ) = 1 − (1 − e − λ 1t )(1 − e − λ 2 t ) = e − λ 1t + e − λ 2 t − e − ( λ 1 + λ 2 ) t
∞
MTTF = R(t )dt =
0 z 1
+
1
−
λ1 λ 2 λ1 + λ 2
1

b)
R(1000) = e −.000356(1000) + e −.00156(1000) − e − (.000356 + .00156)1000 =.7634
1 1 1
MTTF = + − = 2928.09 hrs
.000356 .00156 .000356+.00156

3.13
e − λt ( λt ) n
pn ( t ) = where λt = (.00021)(10,000) = 2.1
n!
−2 .1 e −2.1 (2.1)1 e −2.1 ( 2.1) 2
P(third failure by 10000 hrs) = 1 − p0 − p1 − p2 = 1 − e − − =.351
1! 2!
3.15
λ i =.15 failures / yr ; t 0 = 2 months = 1 / 6 yr ; t = 10,000 hrs = 1.14 yrs
R i (t ) = e − λ i ( t − t0 )
R (t ) = 1 − (1 − Ri (t )) 2 = 1 − (1 − e − λ ( t − t0 ) ) 2 = 2e − λ ( t − t0 ) − e 2 λ ( t − t0 )
. ) = 2e −.15(1.14 −1/ 6) − e −2 (.15)(1.14 −1/ 6) =.982
R (114

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3.25 The number of failures during time t is Poisson with mean .001t = 3.65.
e −3.65 ( 3.65 )
n
8
R8 (t ) = ∑ = .9873
n =0 n!
Therefore: 9 spares are needed
−3.65
( 3.65) = .9956
n
9
e
R9 (t ) = ∑
n =0 n!

3.26
System times in
operating hours
failure rate = 0.000003974
MTTF = 251,635.632
Median = 174,421.238
Std Deviation = 251,635.632
R(8760) = 0.9658

Connectors as a group has the smallest reliability- R(8760) = .983.

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Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.

CHAPTER 4 Solutions to Selected Problems

4.1
FG t IJ β FG 100 IJ 1. 4

R( t ) = e H θ K R(100 ) = e H 550 K =.912

− −
a) →
FG IJ
t. 99 β
H θ K =.99 −
b) B1 → R (t.99 ) = e
t.99 = θ ( − ln(.99))1/ β = 550( − ln(.99))1/1.4 = 20.575 days
c) MTTF = θ ⋅ Γ (1 + 1 / β ) = 550 ⋅ Γ (1 + 1 / 14
. ) = 550 ⋅ Γ (171
. ) = 550⋅.910572 = 500.81 days
{
d) σ 2 = θ 2 Γ (1 + 2 / β ) − Γ (1 + 1 / β )
2
} = 550 {Γ(1 + 2 / 14. ) − Γ(1 / 14. ) } = 550 {Γ(2.43) − Γ(171
2 2
. ) } 2 2

= 5502 1267032
. m
− (.910572)2 = 13246192
. r → σ = σ 2 = 36395
. days
e) t.5 = t med = θ ( − ln(.5))1/ β = 550( − ln(.5))1/1.4 = 423.32 days
f) t mod e = θ (1 − 1 / β )1/ β = 550(1 − 1 / 14
. )1/1.4 = 224.77 days
g) t d = θ ( − ln R)1/ β = 550( − ln(.90))1/1.4 = 110.22 days

4.2
FG t IJ β FG 100 IJ .6

R( t ) = e H θ K R(100) = e H 800 K =.750

− −
a) →
F 300 IJ .6
−G
R (100 + 200) e H 800 K
b) R (100 / 200) = = =.887
R(200) F 200 IJ .6
−G
e H 800 K
LM FG t IJ OP LM FG 1 IJ OP
FG IJ
1. 8 1. 8
.8 − .07 t +
H 10 K PQ H 10 K QP
− .07+
→ R( t ) = e MN R(1) = e MN
18
. t
4.6 λ ( t ) =.07 +
10 10 H K → =.9177
LM FG t IJ OP
1. 8

H 10 K PQ
med
− .07 t med +
For tmed , set R( tmed ) = e MN =.50
F t IJ
+G
1.8

H 10 K =.6931 → tmed = 5.31 yrs, by trial and error

med
and solve for tmed : .07tmed

4.8 Failure time is Weibull with β =1.5 and θ =500.

FG 50 IJ 1.5

a) R (50) = e
−
H 500 K =.96887
1/ β
b) td = θ ( − ln R ) → t.90 = 500( − ln(.90))2/ 3 = 11154
. hrs
c) MTTF = θ ⋅ Γ (1 + 1 / β ) = 500 ⋅ Γ (1 + 2 / 3) = 500⋅.903 = 4515
. hrs

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Ebeling, An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, 2nd ed.

FG 100 IJ 1.5

R (50 + 50) e
−
H 500 K
d) R (50 / 50) = = =.9438
R(50) .96887
e)
F t IJ
λ ( t ) =.003G
1/ 2

H 500K +.002
LMFG t IJ 1. 5 OP LM FG 50 IJ 1. 5 OP
−
H 500 K + .002 t
H 500 K − + .002( 50 )
R( t ) = e MN PQ → R(50) = e MN PQ =.87667

4.9
RS 200 − µ ≤ z ≤ 270 − µ UV =.90 = Pl-1.645 ≤ z ≤ 1.645q
a) P
T σ σ W
200 − µ 270 − µ
= −1645
. and = 1645
.
σ σ
200 - µ 270 - µ 200 - µ
σ =- =-
1.645 1.645 1.645
200 - 235
µ = 235 = MTTF → σ =- = 2128
.
1645
.
FG 210 − µ IJ = 1 − ΦFG 210 − 235IJ = 1 − Φ(−117
b) R(210) = 1 − Φ
H σ K H 2128. K . ) = 1−.121 =.879

FG t − 235IJ =.99 FG t − 235IJ =.01

c) R( td ) = 1 − Φ
H 2128 K Φ
H 2128 K
d
→ d
. .
td − 235
= −2.32 → td = ( −2.32)2128
. + 235 = 185.63 hrs
2128
.

R(10 + 200) R( 210 ) .879 .879

d) R(10 / 200 ) =
R( 200 )
=
FG
200 − 235
=
1 − Φ( −164
=
. ) .9495
=.926
IJ
1− Φ
2128
. H K
4.10
a) t R = tmed e sz1− R → t.98 = 2236e.41( −2.05 ) = 964.82
FG 1 ln t IJ
b) R( t ) = 1 − Φ
Hs t K med

FG 1 ln 840 IJ = 1 − Φ(−2.39) =.99158

R(5 weeks) = R(840 hrs) = 1 − Φ
H .41 2236K
Therefore probability of failure = 1 - .99158 = .00842
s2 .412
c) MTTF = t med e2 = 2236e 2 = 2432.06 hrs
2 2 2 2
d) σ 2 = t med
2
e s ( e s − 1) = 22362 e.41 ( e.41 − 1) = 1082754.22 → σ = 1040.55 hrs

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t med 2236
e) t mode = = = 1890.02 hrs
s2 2
e e.41

4.13
L O
a) The 4 belt system has a Weibull failure distribution with β=1.34 & θ = M∑ (1 / θ ) P
4
β
−1/ β

.
N Q i =1
i

b
θ = 1 / 2500 g + b1 / 3400g + b1 / 8000g + b1 / 6100g
1.34 1.34 1.34 1.34 −1/1.34
= 1399.757 hrs

F (72) = 1 − R (72) = 1 − e b
− 72 /1399 .757 g 1. 34
= 1−.981 =.019
b)
= 1− e b
R( 72 + 4000) − 4072 /1399 .757 g + b 4000 /1399 .757 g
1. 34 1. 34
F (72 / 4000) = 1 − R (72 / 4000) = 1 − =.094
R (4000)
β
+ ( T0 /θ ) β
where R (t / T0 ) = e − (( t + T0 )/θ )

4.15
FG t − µ IJ = 1 − ΦFG t − 10IJ =.99
a) R( td ) = 1 − Φ
H θ K H 2.5 K
d d

FG t − µ IJ =.01 td − 10
Φ
H θ K → z = −164
. =
d
2.5
td = 2.5( −12.325) + 10 = 4.19 days

FG 1 − 10IJ = 1 − Φ(−3.6) = 1−.00016 =.99984

b) i) R(1) = 1 − Φ
H 2.5 K
ii) R(2) = 1 − ΦG
F 2 − 10IJ = 1 − Φ(−3.2) = 1−.00069 =.99931
H 2.5 K
iii) R(5) = 1 − ΦG
F 5 − 10IJ = 1 − Φ(−2) = 1−.02275 =.97725
H 2.5 K
F 6 − 10IJ
1 − ΦG
c) R (1 / 5) =
R (1 + 5) R (6)
= =
H 2.5 K = 1 − Φ(−16. ) = .94520 =.9672
R (5) R (5) .97725 .97725 .97725

4.20
2
a) tmed = MTTF ⋅ e − s /2
= 3600e −2 = 487.21 hrs
FG 1 lnFG 100 IJ IJ = 1 − Φ(−.79) =.785
R(100) = 1 − Φ
H 2 H 487.21K K
F 1 F 200 IJ IJ
1 − ΦG lnG
b) R (100 / 100) =
R( 200)
=
H 2 H 487.21K K =.67/.785 =.85
R(100) .785

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1FG FG 300 IJ IJ
c) R (100 / 200) =
R (300)
=
1 − Φ ln
2 H H 487.21
=.888
KK
R (200) .67
d) This is a decreasing failure rate (DFR) so do not replace until a failure occurs. Operating
2
past the maximum point on the hazard rate curve: tmax = 487.21e1− 2 = 24.3 hrs

4.23 Weibull distribution with beta = 1.2 and theta = 10,000

(a) R(1,000 hrs) .9388
(b) MTTF (in hrs) 9406
(c) The mode (in hours) 2247
(d) The median time to failure 7368
(e) The 90 percent design life 1533
(f) The conditional reliability to get to
1000 hours given it survives 500 hr. .965
(g) characterize the hazard rate function
as DFR, CFR, IFR, or combination
IFR
(h) Average failure rate from 0 to 5,000
hrs
8.71 x 10-5

4.24 Lognormal distribution with tmed = 10,000 and s = 1.2.

(a) R(1,000 hrs) .9725
(b) MTTF (in hrs) 20,544
(c) The mode (in hours) 2369
(d) The median time to failure 10,000
(e) The 90 percent design life 2140
(f) The conditional reliability to get to
1000 hours given it survives 100 hr. .9725
(g) characterize the hazard rate function
as DFR, CFR, IFR, or combination
IFR/DFR
(h) Average failure rate from 0 to 5,000
hrs
6.62 x 10-5

4.26 gamma distribution with γ = 1.8 and α = 10,000 hr. (a) MTTF = 17,000 hr., (b) std. dev. = 13,038
hr., (c) tmed = 13,807 hr., (d) tmode = 7,000 (e) t0.95 = 2420 hr., (e) R(5,000) = .8534, (f) R(1,000|5,000) =
R(6000) / R(5000) = .9511, (g) IFR

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CHAPTER 5

5.1 R(t ) = z ∞

t
f (t ′)dt ′ = z ∞

t
1
'
(t + 1) 2
dt ′ =
1
t +1
L 1 OP
a) R ( t ) = 1 − M1 −
3

→
L 1O
R (.5) = 1 − M1 − P
3

=.96296
s
N t + 1Q s
N 15. Q
L 1 OP =.999
b) 1 − M1 −
3

N t + 1Q
1 −1
1- = (1−.999)1/ 3 → t = 1- (1-.999)1/3 − 1 =.1111 yrs = 40.55 days
t +1
1
c) R(.5) = =.667
.
15

Rs (.5) = ∑
3 3 xFG 3− x IJ b g b g
2 3
b gb g b g
x=2 x
.667 .333
H K
= 3 .667 .333 + .667 =.44444+.296741 =.741185

5.3
(i) Rs (100) = 1 − 1 − e −100/1000d i 2
= 2e −100/1000 − e −200/1000 =.99094

(ii) Rs (100) = e b
− 100 /10 , 000 g 2
⋅ e −.00005(100) =.99491 (higher reliability)

FG t IJ .8 −10FG t IJ
−∑
10 .8
FG 1 IJ .8

Rs ( t ) = e H K = e H θ K Rs (1) = e H θ K =.99
−10
θ
5.6 i =1 i i
→ i

F 1I
-10G J
.8

θi
L 1 O
= M− ln(.99)P
−1/.8

Hθ K i
= ln(.99 ) →
N 10 Q = 5588

5.7
m
a) Rs = 1 − (1−.9) 1 − (1 − (.1)(.2)).95 rn1 − (1−.8) s =.985 3

{
b) Rs = 1 − 1 − 1 − 1 − (.9 )(.9 )
2
}l q
.97 1 − (.95)(.95) = 1 − (.065017)(.0975) =.99366

c) Rs = 1 − (1 − R ⋅ R)(1 − R ) R = 1 − (1 − R − R 2 + R 3 ) R = R 2 (1 + R − R 2 ) =.99
R Rs
.9 .8829
.95 .9454
.97 .9683
.99 .9898

5.8

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c hb g
a) Rs = 1 − (.1)(.1) 1 − 1−.8 1 − (.25)(.25) 1−.8 =.9405

b gb
b) Rs = 1 − (1−.8) 3 1 − 1−.8(1 − (.3)(.3) 1 − (.9)(.9) =.9407 g

5.12 With no redundancy R=.90.

With redundancy R= .95 1 − (1−.9) 2 .95 =.893. Redundancy does not improve reliability.
.9
splitter comparator
.9

5.16
FG 100 IJ
1. 2

R1 (100) = e H 840 K =.9252, R2 (100) = 1 − Φ ln

− 1 100 FG FG IJ IJ = 1 − Φ( −210
H .7 H 435K K . ) =.9821,

R3 (100) = e −.0001(100) =.99

a) Rs = R1 (100) ⋅ R2 (100) ⋅ R3 (100) = (.9252)(.9821)(.99) =.8996

n
b) Rs = 1 − 1 − (.9252)(.9821)
2
s(.99) =.9817
c ) Rs = 1 − (1−.9252) 2 1 − (1−.9821) 2 .99 =.9841

5.17
R3 fails with probability of .05: R3 fails = (.9)2 (.99) =.8019
R3 works with probability of .95: R3 works =.99
Rs = R3 fails + R3 works =.05(.8019 )+.95(.99) =.980595

5.19
There are 5 combinations of the 16 total which result in system success (non-failure):
R1 R2 R3 R4 System Probability
S S S S S .92(.95)(.99)=.761805
S S F S S .92(.05)(.99)=.040095
S F S S S .9(.1)(.95)(.99)=.084645
F S S S S .1(.9)(.95)(.99)=.084645
F F S S S .12(.95)(.99)=.009405
TOTAL: .980595

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5.35 (a) high level redundancy:

−2(.0054 ) (9) −2(.0039 ) (9)

Router eng = e = .9074; Rinner eng = e = .9322
Rsys = 1 − (1 − .9074)(1 − .9322) = .9937

( )( )
Rsys = 1 − 1 − e −2(.0054)t 1 − e −2(.0054)t = e −2(.0054)t + e−2(.0054)t − e−2(.0054+.0039)t
1 1 1
MTTF = + − = 167.03
2 (.0054 ) 2 (.0039 ) 2 (.0054 + .0039 )
(b) Low level redundancy:

−(.0039 )( 9 ) −(.0054 )( 9 )
Rinner eng = e = .9655; Router eng = e = .9526
2
Rsys = ⎡⎣1 − (1 − .9655 )(1 − .9526 ) ⎤⎦ = .9967
MTTF = 363.33 (expand Rsys(t) and integrate)

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CHAPTER 7

7.1
x1 = 45 and x2 = 120 / 160 =.75
λ ( t / x ) = e−9.48 +.01759 x + 7.017 x = e−9.48 +.01759( 45 )+ 7.017(.75 ) =.03253 × 10−3
1 2

MTTF = 1 / λ = 30740.85
−3
R(1000 ) = e − (1000)(.03253×10 )
=.96799
x1 = 30 and x2 = 120 / 160 =.75
λ (t / x ) = e −9.48 + .01759 x1 + 7.017 x2 = e −9.48+ .01759( 30) + 7.017(.75) = e −3.6896 =.02498 × 10 −3
−3
R (1000) = e − (1000)(.02498×10 ) =.97533
x1 = 45 and x2 = 120 / 200 =.60
λ (t / x ) = e −9.48 +.01759 x1 + 7.017 x2 = e −9.48 +.01759( 45) + 7.017(.6) = e −4.4783 =.01135 × 10 −3
−3
R (1000) = e − (1000)(.01135×10 ) =.98871
Increasing the capacitor rating improves the reliability the most because λ is decreased.
.98871−.96799
The percentage increase is: =.0214 → 2.14%
.96799
7.2
u( x ) = 12.31−.0157( 200)−.35( 7.3) = 6.615

R( t ) = 1 − Φ
FG ln t − u( x )IJ → R( 20) = 1 − Φ
FG ln(20) − 6.615IJ = 1 − Φ(−2.53) =.9943
H s K H 143 . K
7.3

a) R= z1000
f ( x )dx =
1
z 1000
e
−
x
500 L O
dx = M− e P = − e − ( −1) =.86466
−
x
500
1000
−2
0
500 0
N Q 0

b) R = P( X < 1000) = Φ
FG 1000 − μ IJ = ΦFG 1000 − 500IJ = Φ(3.03) =.99878
H θ K H 165 K
F 1 t IJ = ΦFG 1 ln 1000IJ = Φ(2.31) =.98956
R = P(ln X ≤ ln 1000) = ΦG ln
c)
H s t K H .3 500 K med
7.4

z z 250
x
∞ 1 ∞ − −
f ( y )dy = dx = 0 − ( − e ) =.90832
2600
a) R= e 2600
250 2600 250

FG y IJ FG 250 IJ
z z FG IJ
β β
GFH θy JIK
.8
β −1
∞ ∞ β y − −
Hθ K −
H 2600 K
b) R = P (Y ≥ s) = f ( y ) dy = dy = e =e =.85762
s s θ θ H K e

c) R = P(Y ≥ 250 ) = 1 − P(Y ≤ 250 ) = 1 − P(ln Y ≤ ln 250 ) = 1 − Φ

FG 1 ln 250 IJ
H .9 2600 K
= 1 − Φ( −2.60 ) =.99534

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7.5
Using equation 7.15:
1 1 .95(25)
R= = =.95 → μ y = = 475
μx 25 .05
1+ 1+
μy μy
Or:

R( y) =
1
25 z 0
y −
e
x
25 dx = −e
−
x
−
y
25 y = 1 − e 25
0

F 1 − e I λe FG 1 + λ IJ y
R= z0
∞
R ( y ) f ( y )dy = z 0
∞
GH JK
−
y
25 − λy
dy = z ∞

0
λe − λy
dy − z ∞

0
−
λe H 25 K dy

∞
LM −e FGH −
1
25
+λ y
IJ
K OP ∞

λ .05
= − e − λy − λM F PP = 1− =.95 → λ = → MTTF = 475
0
MN GH
1
+λ
IJ
K FG 1 + λIJ .95 × 25
25
Q 0 H 25 K
7.7
F μ −μ I F 275 − 180 I
Using equation 7.5: R = Φ GG y x
JJ = ΦGH J
K = Φ(2.43) =.99245
H θ +θ 2
y
2
x K 25 + 30 2 2

7.8
R = P( X < Y ) = P( X < 20) =.25 z 20

0
e − .25 x dx = − e −.25 x
20

0
= − e −.25( 20) + 1 =.99326

R(t ) = e − (1− R )αt = e − (.00674)(.5) t

a) R(10) = e − (.00674)(.5)(10) =.96686 and b) R (20) = e − (.00674)(.5)(20) =.93482

7.10
R( y ) = z z f ( y ) f ( x )dydx = z z .04( y − 15)dy 12 dx = z .02( y − 15)
y 20
15 x Y X
17
15
20
x
17
15
2 20
x
1
2
dx

1L O 17

= z .5−.02( x − 15)
17
15
1
2
dx = M.5 x −
2N
.02
3
b x − 15g P =.4733
2

Q
3

15

7.13
−
FG x IJ β
−
FG 100 IJ 2

R = P( X ≤ Y ) = P( X ≤ 100) = 1 − e Hθ K = 1− e H 50 K =.98168
− (1− R )αt − (1− .98168 ) 2 t − .03664 t − λt
R( t ) = e =e =e =e → λ =.03664 and MTTF = 1 / λ = 27.293 days

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7.16
R( t ) = e− (1− R )αt = e− (1−.992 )(1) t = e−.008 t → R( 25) = e−.008( 25 ) =.81873
− ln.95
R( td ) = e−.008 td =.95 → td = = 6.41 yrs
.008

7.17 Using equation 7.17:

F F
med y IJ I F FG IJ I
ln GG GH
med x
ln
100
K JJ
20 GG H K JJ = Φ(160
R=Φ =Φ . ) =.9452
GG
s y + sx
2 2
.6 +.82
2 JJ GGH JJK
H K
7.26
Stress (X) Strength (Y) Frequency of Load Static Dynamic
Reliability reliability
R R(100 days)
a. Constant = 600 Weibull with beta = Random (Poisson) - .951 .984
psi 2.1 and theta = 2500 averaging once
psi every 300 days
b. Exponential with Exponential with Periodic – every .9542 .096
mean = 120 volts mean = 2500 volts other day

c. lognormal with constant = 1200 lbs. Periodic – every 40 .966 .933

median = 600 lbs. days
s = .38

a. R = exp[-(600/2500)2.1 = .951; R(100) = exp[-(1-.951)/3] = .984

b. R = 2500 / (2500 + 120) = .9542; R(100) = .954250 = .096
⎛ 1 ⎛ 1200 ⎞ ⎞
c. R = Φ ⎜ ⎟ ⎟ = Φ (1.824 ) = .966; R(100) = .966 = .933
2
ln ⎜
⎝ .38 ⎝ 600 ⎠ ⎠

7.29
b b
2y y2
a. R = ∫ b2
b/2
dy =
b2
= 1 − 1/ 4 = 3 / 4
b/2
5
b. R(110) = (3/4) = .237
c. R(110) = exp[-(1-3/4) (1/20) (110)] = .2528
⎡ y 1 ⎤ 2y
b
⎡ y ⎤ 2y
b b
2 y3 2
d. R = ∫0 ⎢ ∫0 b ⎥ b2
dx dy = ∫0 ⎢⎣ b ⎥⎦ b2 dy = 3
=
3b 0 3
⎣ ⎦

7.40 (a) This is case 1, k = 600 psi. R = 1 – exp[-(600/190)2.15] = .99992859

Rn = .99 or n log R = log .99; n = log .99 / log R = 1407.37 landings or 469 days
(b) R(90|469) = .99992859559 x 3/ .99 = .998; F(499) = 1 - . 998 = .002

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CHAPTER 8

8.1 For Component 1: MTTF = 10,000 Γ(1+1/2) = 8862.3

Cost1 = 840 [ 1 + (P/A,.03,20) 2,000 / 8862.3 ] = $ 3660.19

Cost2 = 870 [1 + (P/A,03,20) 2,000 / 10,000 ] = $ 3458.60

(1+.03) 20 − 1
Note: (P/A,.03,20) = = 14.877
.03(1+.03) 20
−
FG t IJ β
8.2 R( t ) = e HθK
−
FG 1 IJ .91 −
FG 1 IJ 1.8
RC (1) = e H 3.5 K =.7263 RS (1) = e H 5 K =.9463
−
FG IJ
1 .8
−
FG 1 IJ 1
RA (1) = e =.7190
4 H K RLS (1) = e H 6 K =.8465
Rsys = RC RA RS RLS =.7236×.7190×.9463×.8465 =.4183
Reliability Goal= y = 4 .995 =.998748
.998748−.7263 .998748−.9463
%C = x100 = 37.51 %S = x100 = 554
.
.7263 .9463
.998748−.7190 .998748−.8465
%A = x100 = 38.91 % LS = x100 = 17.99
.7190 .8465
ln(1 − R ) ln(1−.998748)
8.3 R = 1 − (1 − Ri )n → n = , nC = = 51577
. → 6 units ,
ln(1 − Ri ) ln(1−.7263)
ln(1−.998748) ln(1−.998748)
nA = = 5.2647 → 6 units , nstr = = 2.27 → 3 units
ln(1−.7190) ln(1−.9463)
ln(1−.998748)
nLS = = 3566
. → 4 units
ln(1−.8465)

8.4 λ ( t ) =
β t
θ θ
FG IJ
H K
β −1
and AFR =
1
t2 − t1 z t2

t1
λ ( t ' )dt '

LM β FG 1 IJ t' OP β
1

θ Hθ K P
λ ≈ AFR =
1
1− 0 z
0
1 βF 1 I
G J
θ Hθ K
t ' dt ' = M
β −1
β −1

MM β PP
β −1
=
1 FG 1 IJ = 1
θ Hθ K θ β −1 β

N Q 0
1 1
λ C ≈ AFRC = .91 =.3198 λ S ≈ AFRS = =.0552
.
35 51.8
1 1
λ A ≈ AFRA = .8 =.3299 λ LS ≈ AFRLS = 1 =.1667
4 6
λi λi λi
λ inew = wi λ* = wi ( − ln(.995)) = wi (.005102); wi = = =
4
.3198+.3299+.0552+.1667 .8716
∑λ
i =1
i

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λ Cnew =
FG .3198 IJ .005012 =.00184 λ Snew =
FG .0552 IJ .005012 =.00032
H .8716 K H .8716 K
λ =G
F .3299 IJ .005012 =.00190 λ LSnew =G
F .1667 IJ .005012 =.00096
Anew
H .8716 K H .8716 K
θi
F 1I
=G J
1/ β i

Hλ K i

θ =G
F 1 IJ = 1013.2 yrs
1/.91
θS =
FG 1 IJ 1/1.8
= 87.4 yrs
C
H .00184 K H .00032 K
θ =G
F 1 IJ = 2520.9 yrs
1/.8
θ LS
F 1 IJ
=G
1/1

= 10417
A
H .00190 K H .00096K . yrs

8.5 Total parts count=153+28+34=215

RA: Reliability allocated to ith component= R *ni / N =.99 ni / 215
1 F
1 − R*
ni / N
I,
λ i = − ln 1 −
ti GH
wi JK MTTFi = 1 / λ i , Rw: Rel. accounting for importance= e − λ iti

Component RA λι MTTF Rw
system board .99287 3.767x10-6 267,666 .99249
hard drive .99869 1.457x10-6 686,342 .99854
DC power pack .99841 7.96x10-7 1,256,861 .99841

8.7 Resistor Operating Wattage/Rated Wattage

1 180/200=.9
2 180/225=.8
3 180/300=.6

SYSTEM FAILURE RATE IN 10-6 OPERATING HOURS

Fan Size R1 R2 R3
small .037x73=2.71 .033x73=2.409 .026x73=1.898
medium .033x73=2.409 .029x73=2.117 .023x73=1.679
large .026x73=1.898 .023x73=1.679 .019x73=1.387

SYSTEM COST
Fan Size R1 R2 R3
smalll 50+73(1)=123 50+73(1.2)=137.6 50+73(2)=196
medium 90+73(1)=163 90+73(1.2)=177.6 90+73(2)=236
large 160+73(1)=233 160+73(1.2)=247.6 160+73(2)=306

MTTF/COST=(1/ SYSTEM FAILURE RATE) / SYSTEM COST

Fan Size R1 R2 R3

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small 3010 3017 2688

medium 2547 2660 2524
large 2261 2405 2356

The largest MTTF per dollar cost occurs for R2 and the small fan.
−6
The system reliability is: e − ( 2.409×10 )(10, 000 ) =.9762 .

8.15
A: µ = MTTF = 12Γ(1+1/1.7) = 10.71
A: 225 + ( P / A,.05,10)40(1 / 10.71) − ( P / F ,.05,10)60 100 + 4300 = 26,000
B: 245 + ( P / A,.05,10)35(.11) − ( P / F ,.05,10)40 100 = 25,017
note: (P/A,.05,10) = 7.72 and (P/F,.05,10) = .6139

8.16
m m SF ◊ K
m = SF ◊ K Æ q= = =
b
G 1+1/ b g G (2.25) 1133
.
FG K IJ
-
b
F 1.133 IJ
-G
.8

P(Y < K ) = 1 - e H qK
= 1 - e H SF K
SF = 12
. Æ P(Y < K ) =.615, SF = 2.0 Æ P(Y < K ) =.470, SF = 4 Æ P(Y < K ) =.305

8.17 N = (1.23 x 1028 ) (35)-14.85 = (1.23) (1.1765) x 105 = 144709.5 or 144,709,500 cycles to
failure. Yrs to failure =
144,709,500 cycles to failure / [ 20 cycles/sec x 3600 sec/hr x 350 hrs / yr ] = 5.74 yrs
Material selected does not support design life.

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CHAPTER 9

9.1 H ( t ) =
t '2
z t
dt ' =
t '3 LM OP = t − 1
t 3
→ H ( 6) =
63 − 1
=.215
333 1
3(333) N Q 999
1
999
LM OP
z z 3 10
10 10 t t4 104 − 1
MTTR = t ⋅ h( t )dt = dt = = = 7.507 hrs
1 1 333 4(333) N Q1
1332

b g
3
t −1 1/ 3
H ( tmed ) =.5 = med
→ tmed = 999(.5) + 1 = 7.940 hrs
999
9.2
a)
FG 1 ln t IJ = 1 − ΦFG 1 ln 5 IJ =.90 FG 1 ln 5 IJ =.10
R( t ) = 1 − Φ
Hs t K med H .7 t K med
→ Φ
H .7 t K
med

1 5 5
ln = −128
. → tmed = .7 ( −1.28 )
= 12.249 yrs
.7 tmed e
2 2
/2
MTTF = t med e s = 12.249e.7 /2
= 15.650 yrs
b)
MTTF 2 FG 1 ln 4 IJ = ΦFG ln 4 IJ =.883
tmed =
e s2 / 2
= 1/ 2 = 1213
e
. hrs → H ( 4) = Φ
H s t K H 1213
med . K
t med .
1213
tmode = s2
= =.446 hrs
e e1

MTTF 10,000
9.4 tmed = s2 / 2
= 2 = 1353353
. hrs
e e2 /2

With PM: T = 100 hrs , n = 5 , and t = 550 hours , and R ( t ) = R(T )n R( t − nT )

m
1
R (550) = R(100)5 R(50) = 1 − Φ ln
100 LM FG IJ OP LM1 − ΦFG 1 ln 50 IJ OP
5
m .
2 1353353 N H K Q N H 2 1353353 . KQ
= 1−.0968 5 1−.0495 =.5735
FG 1 ln 550 IJ = 1−.3264 =.6736
Without PM: R(550) = 1 − Φ
. K
H 2 1353353
Preventative maintenance is not advantageous in this case.

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9.6
a) MTTF = z1000
0
R( t )dt = 0 z
1000
(1−.001t )dt = t − (.001t 2 ) / 2
1000

0
= 500 hrs

b) MTTFM =
z 100
(1−.001t )dt 95
0
= = 950 hrs
1 − R(100) .1
c) R( 225) = 1−.001( 225) =.775
RM ( 225) = R(100)2 (.99)2 R( 225 − 200) =.92 (.99)2 1−.001( 25) =.774 b g
d) RM ( 225) = R(50 )4 (.99)4 R( 225 − 200) =.954 (.99)4 1−.001( 25) =.763 No improvement.

9.10 (a)
MTBFprop = 1000 Γ(1+1/1.7) = 892.4
MTBFstruc = 2000 Γ(1+1/2.1) = 1771.5
MTBFelec = 870 Γ(1+1/1.8) = 773.3

∑ q f MTTR
i =1
i i i
MTTRSYS = 5
=
∑q f
i =1
i i

50000 50000 50000

(6.8) + .003(50000)(3.2) + (5.2) + (2) + .001(50000)(4.8)
892.4 1771.5 773.3 1377
= = 3.95
50000 50000 50000 348.9
+ .003(50000) + + + .001(50000)
892.4 1771.5 773.3

FG 50000IJ β
(b) For power law intensity # failures= f =
H θ K .

Therefore fprop = (50000/1000)1.7 = 773, fstruc = (50000/2000)2.1 = 862, and fele = (50000/870)1.8
= 1469.
MTTRsys = [ 773 (6.8) + 150 (3.2) + 862 (5.2) +1469 (2) +50 (4.8)]/[773+150+862+1469+50]

= 13396.8 / 3304 = 4.05

MTTR is not very sensitive to the maintenance concept but the number of failures is.

9.11
FG 1 ln t IJ = 1 − ΦFG 1 ln 300 IJ =.9312
Replace (renewal process): R ( 300) = 1 − Φ
Hs t K H .9 1150K
med
Repair: Expected number of failures in the interval (400,700) is

700 (.4 x 10−8 )(2.8) 2.8 700

(.4 x 10−8 )(2.8) ∫ t1.8 dt = ⎡⎣t ⎤⎦ = .2928757
400 2.8 400

Therefore Pr{N(700) - N(400) = 0} = e-.2928757 = .7461

Conclusion: Replace the part.

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9.18 Repair initiated only after 3 generators have failed:

a) MTTR = 10 hrs
b) ( n − k + 1) MTTR = ( 6 − 4 + 1) MTTR = (3)10 = 30 hrs
MTTR 10
c) = = 3333
. hrs
n − k +1 3

∑
3
1 FG 1 1 IJ
d) MTTR
i =1 i
H 2 3 K
= MTTR 1 + + = 10(1833 . ) = 18.33 hrs

9.20 K1 = λ 1 + λ 2 + r = 1 + 2 + 2 = 5; K 2 = λ 1 ⋅ λ 2 = 2; r = 2
− K1 ± K12 − 4 K 2 −5 ± 25 − 8
x1 , x2 = = = −.4384, − 4.561
2 2
(5−.4384)e−.4384 t − (5 − 4.561)e−4.561t
R( t ) = = 11065
. e−.4384 t −.1065e−4.561t
−.4384 + 4.561
R(1) =.7125

OP
z
1000
1000
−7 .5 + .003t e −7.5+ .003t
9.23 NHPP: (a) m(0,1000) = e dt = = 352
.
0 .003 Q 0

(b) m(0,100) =
e −7.5+ .003t OP 100

= .0645 ; R(100) = e-.0645 = .9375

.003 Q 0

(c) Since ρ(t) is increasing, the automobile is deteriorating.

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CHAPTER 10

10.1 (Measurements and Specification - 10.1.1)

Repair specification that 95% of repairs must be completed in 8 hours is satisfied.
P( H ≤ 8) = Φ
FG
8−µ
=Φ
IJ FG
8 − 5.6
= Φ 1714 =.956
IJ b g
Hσ .
14 K H .
K
Maintenance specification that MH/OH <.01 is also satisfied.

MTBF = 3000 Γ(1+1/1.3) = 2771; m(1) = 1/2771 = .000361

t
MH MTBF ⋅ MTTR ⋅ CREW .000361⋅ 5.6 ⋅ 2
= = =.004
OH t 1

1
1.5

λ ⋅ MTTR + MPMT .0521 8.6e 2 +

1
4
LM 2
OP
10.2 M =
Tp
=
10 ⋅ 24
= 24.824 hrs
MN PQ
1 1
λ+ .0521 +
Tp 10 ⋅ 24

10.3 Cost = C A +
td
MTBF
d i
C f + Cv MTTR = C A + m(t ) C f + Cv MTTR d i
s2
z
Pump #1: m (5 ⋅ 365) = abt b −1dt = at b
1825

0
.812
1825

0
=.9.2 x 10−6 (1825) 2.1 = 64.93

MTTR = tmed e = 5.1e

2 2
hrs = 7.0801 hours
C = 450 + 64.93 ( 0 + 3 ⋅ 50 ⋅ 7.0801) = $69, 406.63
5 × 365
Pump #2: C = 525 +
1/.06
b
0 + 2 ⋅ 50 ⋅ 6.2 = $68,415 → g Pump #2 is preferred

10.6
f = m(10,000) = z
0
10 , 000
ρ (t )dt = 6 ⋅ 10−9 t 2.5
repair cost = ar + br f + ckf = 500 + (55 × 1 × 6)(60) + c(.05)60 = 20300 + 3c
10 , 000

0
= 60

discard cost = ad + cf + bd f = 0 + c × 60 + (55 × 1 × 1)60 = 60c + 3300

repair cost = discard cost
20300 + 3c = 60c + 3300
57c = 17000 → c = 298.24

L C OP = L
10.7 t * = M
1/ b
400 OP 1/ 2 .5
u
M
MN C a(b − 1) PQ N 330(6 x 10 )(2.5 − 1) Q
f
−9
= 1785 operating hours

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10.8

T * L C OP = LM
=M s
1/ b
50 OP 1/1.5
1 1
= 160 hrs = 160 × × = 1 month
N C a(b − 1) Q N 200(2.47 x 10
r
−4
. − 1) Q
)(15 8 20

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CHAPTER 11

11.1
a)
r λ .1 .02
At2 −0 = + 1 − e − ( λ + r ) t2 → A30 = + 1 − e − (.02 +.1)30 =.8784
b
r + λ r + λ t2
2
gb g .1+.02 .1+.02 30
2
b gb g
r .1
A= → A= =.8333
r+λ .1+.02
b)
LM
A = P1 + P2 = 1 +
λ1
+
λ 1λ 2 OP −1
+
λ1
N r r 2
Q r
P1

L .02 + .02 OP
A = M1 +
2 −1

+
.02
1+
.02 .022
+ 2
LM OP −1

=.8065+.2 .8065 =.9678

N .1 .1 Q 2
.1 .1 .1 N Q
c) As = 1 − (1 − Ai )2 → As = 1 − (1−.8333)2 =.9722 (note: assumes two repair crews
are available. For a single repair crew see problem 11.9)

11.4 From Eq. 11.19:

L λ λ λ OP
A = P + P = M1 + + 1 1 2
−1
L λ λ λ OP = LM1 + 1 + 1 OP LM1 + 1 OP = 3
λ1
+ M1 + + 1 1 2
−1 −1

1
N r r Q
2 2
r N r r Q N 2 2Q N 2Q 4 2

11.5
r 1 / 2.5 .4
a) A = = = =.80
r + λ 1 / 2.5+.1 .4 + 1
.4 .1
b) A2 = + 1 − e − (.4 +.1)2 =.80+.1264 =.9264
b gbg
.4+.1 .4+.1 2 2

r λ − ( λ + r )2 .4 .1 −.5(2 )
c) A( 2) = + e = + e =.8736
r+λ r+λ .4+.1 .4+.1
d) Two components in series:
a) As = A2 =.802 =.64 , b) As = A2 2 =.92642 =.8582 , c) As = A( 2)2 =.87362 =.7632
e) Two components in parallel:
a) As = 1 − (1 − A)2 = 1 − (1−.8)2 =.96 , b) As = 1 − (1 − A2 )2 = 1 − (1−.9264)2 =.9946
c) As = 1 − (1 − A( 2))2 = 1 − (1−.8736)2 =.9840

f) A = P1 + P2 = 1 +
LM .1 .12
+
OP −1

+
.1 LM
.1 .12
1+ + 2
OP −1

=.7619+.25(.7619) =.9524
N .4 .42 Q .4 N
.4 .4 Q

11.6

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1
λ1=2
r=3/2 State Condition
1 primary operating (λ1=2)
2 2 primary failed and secondary operating
3
λ2=4 (λ2=2)
3 both failed (r=3/2)

3 4 1
2 P1 = P3 → P3 = P1 and 2 P1 = 4 P2 → P2 = P1
2 3 2
FG
P1 + P2 + P3 = P1 1 +
1 4
+
IJ
= 1 → P1 =
6 + 3+ 8
MNL OP −1
=
6
H 2 3 K 6 Q 17

A = P1 + P2 =
6 1 6
+ =
FG IJ
9
=.529
17 2 17 17H K

1 − e − λT 1 − e − .00314 T
11.8 A(T ) = =
λ T + t1 + t 2 (1 − e − λt ) .00314 T +.25 + (1 − e −.00314 T )
T in days A(T)
1 .797 8 .955 15 .9579
2 .884 10 .9576 16 .9574
3 .916 11 .9582 18 .9560
4 .932 12 .9585 20 .9544
6 .948 14 .9585

2 2
11.14 MTBF = 400Γ(1 + 1 / 2.4 ) = 354.54 , MTTR = tmed e s / 2 = 4.8e1.2 / 2 = 9.86
MTBF 354.54
a) Ai = = =.9729
MTBF + MTTR 354.54 + 9.86
b)
1 1 1
λMTTR + MPMT 9.86 + 6
TP 354 .54 200
M= = = 7.39 hrs
1 1 1
λ+ +
TP 354.54 200
1 1 MTBM 127.87
MTBM = = = 127.87 , Aa = = =.945
1
+
1 1
+
1 MTBM + M 127.87 + 7.39
MTBF TP 354.54 200

11.15

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A(T ) =
R(T )T + z 0
T

=
F TI
tf ( t )dt GH1 − b JK T + z T

0 b
t
dt
=
T
1− T +
b
T2
2b
=
FG
H T
IJ
K
−
T2
2b
T + t1 + t2 1 − R( t ) LM OP
T + t1 + t2
T
T + t1 + t2
T LM OP
T + t1 + t2
T LM OP
N Q
b b N Q
b N Q
T2
T−
10,000
A(T ) =
T + 24 + 72
T LM OP T:
A(T):
300 400 500
.8863 .8935 .8942 .8915
600
5,000N Q
An interval of 500 appears optimal. Since availability seems to be insensitive to changes in T
in the neighborhood of 500 hours, no further refinement to T is made.

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