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Problem Set 2 - Solutions

This document contains solutions to problems involving probability calculations using the binomial and normal distributions. It includes: 1) Calculating probabilities of different outcomes for drawing balls from an urn. 2) Constructing a contingency table and finding a conditional probability. 3) Finding probabilities and percentiles from binomial probability distributions. 4) Calculating probabilities of events within certain ranges for the normal distribution. 5) Calculating multiple probabilities for a normal distribution with given parameters.

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80 views3 pages

Problem Set 2 - Solutions

This document contains solutions to problems involving probability calculations using the binomial and normal distributions. It includes: 1) Calculating probabilities of different outcomes for drawing balls from an urn. 2) Constructing a contingency table and finding a conditional probability. 3) Finding probabilities and percentiles from binomial probability distributions. 4) Calculating probabilities of events within certain ranges for the normal distribution. 5) Calculating multiple probabilities for a normal distribution with given parameters.

Uploaded by

hoi ching
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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DSME2011 First Term 2018-19

Problem Set 2: Solutions


2 1
1. (a) P(2 gold) =  = 0.03
9 8
2 7 7 2
(b) P(1 gold and 1 silver) =  +  = 0.39
9 8 9 8
3
2
(c) P(3 gold) =   = 0.01
9
2 2
(d) (a) P(2 gold) =  = 0.05
9 9
 7  2 
(b) P(1 gold and 1 silver) = 2    = 0.35
 9  9 

2. Contingency table:
High Effectiveness Not High Effectiveness Totals
With Strategy 0.1716 0.0671 0.2387
Without Strategy 0.2184 0.5429 0.7613
Totals 0.3900 0.6100 1.0000

P(highly | strategy) = 0.1716/ 0. 2387= 0.7189

3. Portion of the PHStat output:


Data
Sample size 10
Probability of an event of interest 0.8

Statistics
Mean 8
Variance 1.6
Standard deviation 1.264911

Binomial Probabilities Table


X P(X) P(<=X) P(<X) P(>X) P(>=X)
0 1.02E-07 1.02E-07 0 1 1
5 0.026424 0.032793 0.006369 0.967207 0.993631
(a) P(X = 0) = 1.024 × 10−7
(b) P(X = 5) = 0.0264
(c) P(X > 5) = 0.9672
(d)  = 8,  = 1.2649
4.
(a) Partial PHStat output:
Probability for a Range
From X Value 0.75
To X Value 0.753
Z Value for 0.75 -0.75
Z Value for 0.753 0
P(X<=0.75) 0.2266
P(X<=0.753) 0.5000
P(0.75<=X<=0.753) 0.2734
P(0.75 < X < 0.753) = P(– 0.75 < Z < 0) = 0.2734

(b) Partial PHStat output:


Probability for a Range
From X Value 0.74
To X Value 0.75
Z Value for 0.74 -3.25
Z Value for 0.75 -0.75
P(X<=0.74) 0.0006
P(X<=0.75) 0.2266
P(0.74<=X<=0.75) 0.2261
P(0.74 < X < 0.75) = P(– 3.25 < Z < – 0.75) = 0.2266 – 0.00058 = 0.2260

(c) Partial PHStat output:

Probability for X >


X Value 0.76
Z Value 1.75
P(X>0.76) 0.0401
P(X > 0.76) = P(Z > 1.75) = 1.0 – 0.9599 = 0.0401

(d) Partial PHStat output:


Probability for X <=
X Value 0.74
Z Value -3.25
P(X<=0.74) 0.000577
P(X < 0.74) = P(Z < – 3.25) = 0.00058

(e) Partial PHStat output:


Find X and Z Given Cum. Pctage.
Cumulative Percentage 7.00%
Z Value -1.475791
X Value 0.747097
P(X < A) = P(Z < – 1.48) = 0.07 A = 0.753 – 1.48(0.004) = 0.7471
5. n = 25 µ = 1.005  = 0.10

1.0−1.005
(a) P( X < 1) = P (Z < 0.10 ) = P(Z < −0.25) = 0.4013
√25

0.95−1.005 1.0−1.005
(b) P(0.95 < X < 1.0) = P ( 0.10 <Z< 0.10 ) = P(−2.75 < Z <
√25 √25
−0.25) = 0.4013 − 0.0030 = 0.3983

1.0−1.005 1.05−1.005
(c) P(1.0 < X < 1.05) = P ( 0.10 <Z< 0.10 ) = P(−0.25 < Z <
√25 √25
2.25) = 0.9878 − 0.4013 = 0.5865

(d)
0.95−1.005
Solution 1: P((X < 0.95) ∪ (X > 1.05)) = P (Z < 0.10 )+
√25
1.05−1.005
P (Z > 0.10 ) = P(Z < −2.75) + P(Z > 2.25) = 0.0030 +
√25
(1 − 0.9878) = 0.0152

Solution 2: P((X < 0.95) ∪ (X > 1.05)) = 1 − (P(0.95 < X < 1.0) +
P(1.0 < X < 1.05)) = 1 – (0.3983 + 0.5865) = 1 – 0.9848 = 0.0152

(e) P( X < 0.952) = P(Z < –2.65) = 0.004


If the upload speed is normally distributed with a mean of 1.005 and a
standard deviation of 0.10, the probability is 0.004 of obtaining a sample that
will yield a sample mean upload speed of 0.952 or less, a rather unlikely event.
The fact that today’s sample of 25 yields a sample mean upload speed of 0.952
indicates that the distribution of the upload speed is most likely not normally
distributed with a mean of 1.005 and a standard deviation of 0.10.

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