Exogenous Change and Growth of Knowledgechapter1
Exogenous Change and Growth of Knowledgechapter1
October 8, 2009
Contents
1 Introduction 3
1.1 Fundamental economic issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.2 The Kaldor stylized facts and more . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.3 What have been found (Sala–i-Martin (2002)) . . . . . . . . . 3
1
5 Diamond Model 12
5.1 The consumer’s problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
5.2 The firm’s problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
5.3 Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
8 Learning by Doing 20
8.1 Main equations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
8.2 Case 1: θ < 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
8.3 Case 2: θ = 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
8.3.1 n=0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
8.3.2 n>0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
8.4 Case 3: θ > 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
9 Human Capital 24
9.1 Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
9.2 Main equations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
9.3 Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
9.3.1 The steady state . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
9.3.2 The phase diagram . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
10 Malthus 30
2
1 Introduction
1.1 Fundamental economic issues
• What is the engine of long-run growth? Why is there a constant growth
rate? How to stimulate growth?
• Why is there structural change? Why the importance of services rise
so sharply?
• Why are there inequalities across countries? How to reduce them?
• Why are there short-run fluctuations? Are these bad? How to reduce
them?
• Why is there unemployment? How to eliminate it?
3
2 The Solow Model
This is the standard model of capital accumulation. Without assuming exo-
geneous technological progress, this model predicts convergence to a steady
state in per capita output. The driving force behind this result is the fact
that there are diminsihung returns in capital, the only accumulable input.
sf (k ∗ ) = (n + δ)k ∗ (6)
4
2.3 The dynamics
To focus the analysis on a steady state is relevant only if this is dynamically
stable so that this equilibrium is robust to shocks. The diagrammatic anal-
ysis of the dynamic equation shows that k ∗ is globally dynamically stable.
The economy converges to k ∗ independently of the initial value k(0).
2.4 Results
1. y(t), k(t) and c(t) converge to their steady states values.
2. Y (t), K(t) and C(t) grow with the population growth rate n.
5
2.6 The Solow model with exogenous technological progress
Y (t)
y(t) = = F k(t), 1) = f (k(t)) (7)
A(t)L(t)
We assume
•
A(t) = gA(t) (8)
leading to
A(t) = A(0)egt
The dynamics in intensive form is:
k̇(t) = sf k(t) − (g + δ + n)k(t) (9)
sf (k ∗ ) = (g + n + δ)k ∗ (10)
Let Kt and Lt be the total capital and labor and Yt be total output
in period t. Let Ct be total consumption. Let F be the constant returns
production function. The main equations of the Solow model are:
Yt = F Kt , Lt (11)
6
Equation (3) can be expressed in per capita terms:
kt+1 = sf k(t) + (1 − δ − n)kt (15)
sf (k ∗ ) = (n + δ)k ∗ (16)
The value of the steady state (and the other properties) depends on the
properties of the function f. What do we know about f ?
The function f inherits some properties of the production function F. In
particular, F is assumed to be constant returns to scale, increasing in both
arguments and with infinite marginal productivity at 0. A good example is
F (K, L) = K α L1−α with 0 < α < 1. The per capita form is f (k) = k α which
is concave with infinite marginal productivity at zero and asymptotically
zero.
The structure of the Ramsey model is as for the Solow model but the saving
rate is endogenous. This means that the behavior of the consumer should
be explicitly modeled as an optimization.
7
Kt+1
Substitute (??) into (??), divide by Lt , use the fact that kt+1 = Lt+1 =
Kt+1 Lt Kt+1 1
Lt Lt+1 = Lt 1+µ , rearrange and you get capital per capita:
Substitute (??) into the utility function of (??), take the derivations with
respect to kt and you get the Euler equations:
U 0 (ct ) 1+µ
0
= ∀t ≥ 1 (23)
U (ct−1 ) σ f 0 (kt ) + (1 − δ)
ct > f (kt ) − (δ + µ)kt : ct > f (kt ) − (δ + µ)kt . Substitute (??) for ct and
you get: f (kt ) − (1 + µ)kt+1 + (1 − δ)kt > f (kt ) − (δ + µ)kt . Rearrange and
you finally get: kt+1 − kt < 0.
We therefore have the following dynamics:
8
kt > k∆c=0 : If kt > k∆c=0 , then we have with (25) and because f 00 (kt ) < 0:
f 0 (kt ) < 1+µ
σ − (1 − δ). Rearrange and use (??) to get:
0
0< 1+µ = U0 (ct ) . Rearrange and use that U 00 (ct ) < 0 and you
U (ct−1 )
σ f 0 (kt )+(1−δ)
finally get: ct − ct−1 < 0.
We therefore have the following dynamics:
1+µ
kt > k∆c=0 ⇔ f 0 (kt ) < − (1 − δ) ⇔ ct − ct−1 < 0 (27)
σ
This is the standard two-sectors model in which the two sectors are fully
specialized. The model is important as it shows that endogenous cycles
without shocks may persist.
9
The first-order conditions to problem (35) are given by:
∂F 2 (kt2 , lt2
p2t = p2t−1 (36)
∂kt2
∂F (kt2 , lt2
2
p2t = wt2 (37)
∂lt2
Assuming that labor can move from one sector to the other, we have fur-
thermore:
wt1 = wt2 (38)
The profit maximization gives the optimal value of inputs (kt1 , kt2 , lt1 , lt2 ) as
a function of prices.
The first-order conditions to problem (41) are given by the Euler equations:
U 0 T (kt , kt+1 ) T2 (kt , kt+1 ) + βU 0 T (kt+1 , kt+2 ) T1 (kt+1 , kt+2 ) = 0
V2 (kt , kt+1 ) + βV1 (kt+1 , kt+2 ) = (42)
0
The Transversality condition is given by:
lim β t kt V1 (kt , kt+1 ) = 0 (43)
t→∞
Given prices, (42) and (43) determine the path of investment kt+1 and there-
fore also the path of consumption ct . Because we consider only one homo-
geneous and representative consumer, prices could be excluded from the
maximization problem (the equilibria are Pareto-efficient in this case). At
the steady state, we have kt+1 = kt := k∗ and the Euler equation is given
by:
T2 (k∗, k∗) + βT1 (k∗, k∗) = 0 (44)
10
4.4 Specific formulation of the model
Consider the following specification of the neoclassical two-sector model:
F 1 (kt1 , lt1 ) = (kt1 )1−α (lt1 )α (45)
k2
F 2 (kt2 , lt2 ) = min(lt2 , t ) (46)
γ
c1−µ
U 0 (ct ) = (47)
1−µ
Because we have a Leontief production function in the investment sector,
we must have at the optimum:
kt2
lt2 = (48)
γ
Together with (29) and (46) we must have furthermore:
kt 2
kt+1 = lt2 = (49)
γ
With (40) and (45), the transformation function is given by:
T (kt , kt+1 ) = M ax (kt1 )1−α (lt1 )α s.t. : (50)
k2
1
kt+1 2
+ kt+1 = kt+1 = lt2 = t , lt1 + lt2 = 1
γ
Substitute the conditions in (50) into the target function and you get:
T (kt , kt+1 ) = (kt − γkt+1 )1−α (1 − kt+1 )α (51)
T1 (kt+1 , kt+2 ) and T2 (kt , kt+1 ) are given by:
T1 (kt+1 , kt+2 ) = (1 − α)(1 − kt+2 )α (kt+1 − γkt+2 )−α (52)
11
Theorem 1 Consider the following linear, homogeneous, 2-dimensional,
first-order dynamically system:
zt = Azt−1 , zt ∈ R2 , A ∈ M at(2 ∗ 2, R). Denote with λ1 , λ2 the eigenvalues
of A.
λ1 = −1 or λ2 = −1 ⇒ a cycle of period two exists. Assume α < (1−γ) 2 .
γ α+γ
Then there is a cycle of period 2 for β ∈ 1−2α , 1−α , e.g. for β in this
range: λ1 = −1 or λ2 = −1
5 Diamond Model
In the models investigated so far, agents were infinitly lived. Here we focus
the analysis on finitely lived agents. The standard model is the overlapping
generations model in which generations overlap. In the infinitly lived agents
models, agents can be considered as dynasties. These may be obtained by
assuming that the successive generations are linked through bequests. In
the overlapping generation models these links are broken.
12
5.2 The firm’s problem
We have exogenous growth of technology At :
At+1 = At (1 + g) (64)
Effective labor, L
e t , is given by:
L
e t = At L t (65)
Furthermore, wage is given by:
ŵt = At wt (66)
The firm’s profit maximization problem is then given by:
M ax F (Kt , At Lt ) − rt Kt − ŵt Lt (67)
With (66) problem (67) is equivalent to:
M ax F (Kt , At Lt ) − rt Kt − At wt Lt (68)
Kt
Divide (68) by At Lt , define capital per effective labor by kt = At Lt to get:
M ax f (kt ) − rt kt − wt (69)
The first-order conditions to problem (69) are given by:
f 0 (kt ) = rt (70)
wt = f (kt ) − kt f 0 (kt ) (71)
5.3 Analysis
Equilibrium on the capital market demands that investments are equal to
total savings for all t. In our model, the only way to save is to own capital.
Therefore equilibrium condition is given by:
Kt+1 = st rt+1 ŵt Lt = st rt+1 At wt Lt (72)
Divide (72) by At+1 Lt+1 to get this condition in per effective labor terms:
1
kt+1 = st rt+1 wt (73)
(1 + n)(1 + g)
Substitute (70) and (71) into (73) to get the following first-order dynamically
system:
1
kt+1 = st f 0 (kt )[f (kt ) − kt f 0 (kt )] (74)
(1 + n)(1 + g)
st in (74) is given by (63)
Theorem 2 When preferences are log and production is Cobb-Douglas, then
the steady state is unique and globally stable.
13
6 Knowledge accumulation without capital
In Section 2.6, the Solow model was extended introducing exogenous techo-
logical progress. The process was sponteneous without the need of any
investment and didn’t use any resources. It is now time to model techno-
logical progres. A first possibility is to assume that knowledge is produced
in the economy and specify the required technology to produce ideas. In
this Section it is assumed that only labour is needed while in the next both
capital and labour wil be used as input to produce knowledge.
6.1 Assumptions
Knowledge is a non-rival good, i.e. its use by a person does not make
its use by another person more difficult. Knowledge, may be excludable
(encoded TV program) or non-excludable (the Pythagoras theorem).
14
6.2 Equations
The main equations of the model are:
Y (t) = F AY (t), KY (t), LY (t) = (1 − aL )L(t)A(t) (75)
γ
Ȧ(t) = B aL L(t) A(t)θ (76)
" • #
• Ȧ(t) •
gA = = γB[aL L(t)]γ−1 L(t)A(t)θ−1 + (80)
A(t)
•
+(θ − 1)B[aL L(t)]γ A(t)θ−2 A(t) (81)
so that
" • #
• Ȧ(t) •
gA = = γB[aL L(t)]γ−1 L(t)[L(t)/L(t)]A(t)θ−1 + (82)
A(t)
•
+(θ − 1)B[aL L(t)]γ A(t)θ−1 [A(t)/A(t)] (83)
and finally
• 2
gA (t) = γngA (t) + gA (t)(θ − 1) (84)
The steady state is obtained for
2
0 = γngA (t) + gA (t)(θ − 1) (85)
giving
γn ∗
gA = = gA (86)
1−θ
15
6.3 Analysis
6.3.1 Case 1: θ < 1
∗ where
If θ < 1 it follows from (84) that gA (t) converges to gA
∗ γn
gA = (87)
1−θ
•
∗ we have g (t) < 0 so that g (t) decreases while
Indeed, for gA (t) > gA A A
•
∗ we have g (t) > 0 so that g (t) increases. Equation (87) de-
gA (t) < gA A A
scribes a one-dimension, first-order, linear and homogeneous dynamically
system. In other words, the equation
Ȧ(t) ∗ γn
= gA =
A(t) 1−θ
has as the solution: γn
A(t) = A(0)e 1−θ t (88)
γn
Consequently, both A(t) and Y (t)/L(t) grow at the rate 1−θ
n=0 From equation (88), knowledge A(t) is constant and the growth rate
of knowledge is 0:
A(t) = A(0) (89)
From (89), (78) and (75) output is constant and the growth rate of output
is 0:
Y (t) = (1 − aL )L(0)A(0) (90)
1. Conclusion: The growth rates of output, output per capita and knowl-
edge are all 0
16
Observations:
1. The growth rates of output and output per capita depend on popula-
tion growth n. This is called the scale effect. It is not observed in
the empirical comparisons across countries.
2. The growth rates of output and output per capita do not depend on
aL : the size of the Research & Development sector is irrelevant for
growth.
6.3.2 Case 2: θ = 1
From (76), we have: γ
Ȧ(t) = B aL L(t) A(t) (95)
Substitute (78) into (95), rearrange and you get the growth rate of knowl-
edge:
Ȧ(t)
gA (t) = = BaγL L(t)γ (96)
A(t)
Furthermore, from (84) you get:
and
ġA (t) = 0 (99)
(98) is a first-order, linear, homogeneous dynamical system. The solution is
given by: γ γ
A(t) = A(0)eBaL L(0) t (100)
With (100), (75) and (78), output is given by:
γ γt
Y (t) = (1 − aL )L(0)A(0)eBaL L(0) (101)
Y (t) γ γ
y(t) = = (1 − aL )A(0)eBaL L(0) t (102)
L(t)
Therefore, the growth rate of output and the growth rate of output per
capita are given by:
ẏ(t) γ
= B aL L(0) (103)
y(t)
17
Observations:
1. The growth rates of output, output per capita and knowledge are
constant and the same: B(aL L(0))γ
2. The growth rates of output, output per capita and knowledge depend
on aL : The amount of labor in the Research & Development sector
matters for the long run behavior.
Ȧ(t) γ
gA (t) = = Beγnt aL L(0) (104)
A(t)
Observations:
Observations:
1. Because of (106) we have ġA (t) > 0 even if n = 0 the growth rate of
knowledge and therefore the growth rates of output and output per
capita are increasing forever.
18
7 Knowledge accumulation with capital
7.1 Main equations
The main equations of this model are:
1−α
K̇(t) = sY (t) = (1 − ∂K )α (1 − ∂L )1−α K(t)α A(t)L(t) (107)
β γ
Ȧ(t) = B ∂K K(t) ∂L L(t) A(t)θ (108)
2. n=0: the growth rates of knowledge, output and output per capita are
all 0
3. n>0: the growth rates of knowledge, output and output per capita are
constant and depend on the growth rate of population
1. n=0: the growth rates of knowledge, output and output per capita are
constant
2. n>0: the growth rates of knowledge, output and output per capita are
increasing
3. ∂L , ∂K matter
1. The growth rates of knowledge, output and output per capita are
positive and ever increasing even if n=0
2. n, ∂K , ∂L matter
19
8 Learning by Doing
Another way to obtain growth is to assume that the process of production
becomes more effective as production occurs. This is different than assuming
exogeneous technological progress because progress here depends on how
much it is produced. However, no specific investment is required.
K̇(t)
gK (t) = = sB 1−α L(t)1−α K(t)α+θ(1−α)−1 (114)
K(t)
Take the derivation of gK (t) with respect to time and you get:
K̇(t) n
ḡK = = (116)
K(t) 1−θ
K(t) nθ
k(t) = = k(0)et 1−θ (118)
L(t)
20
Take the derivation of k(t) with respect to t, and you get the growth rate
of capital per capita:
k̇(t) nθ
= (119)
k(t) 1−θ
Substitute (110), (112) and (117) into (109), and you get the output:
nt
Y (t) = K(0)α+θ(1−α) L(0)1−α B 1−α e 1−θ (120)
From (120) you get the growth rate of output:
Ẏ (t) n
= (121)
Y (t) 1−θ
Divide (120) by L(t) and use (112) to get output per capita:
Y (t) nθ
y(t) = = k(0)K(0)θ(1−α) et 1−θ (122)
L(t)
From equation (122), the growth rate of output per capita is straightforward:
ẏ(t) nθ
= (123)
y(t) 1−θ
Observations:
1. The growth rates depend on the population growth rate and are inde-
pendent of the saving rate s
2. If n=0, then all the growth rates are equal to 0
3. If n>0, then the growth rates are positive and constant. They depend
on the value of n.
8.3 Case 2: θ = 1
If θ = 1, we have from (115):
K̇(t)
ġK (t) = = n(1 − α)gK (t) (124)
K(t)
Equation (124) describes a first-order, linear, homogeneous dynamical sys-
tem. The solution is given by:
K̇(t) K̇(0)
gK (t) = = etn(1−α) = etn(1−α) gK (0) (125)
K(t) K(0)
If θ = 1, then gK (0) is given from (114):
K̇(0)
gK (0) = = sB 1−α L(t)1−α = sB 1−α L(0)1−α ent(1−α) (126)
K(0)
21
8.3.1 n=0
If n=0, we have from (125) and (126):
K̇(t)
= sB 1−α L(0)1−α (129)
K(t)
From (128) you get immediately capital per capita and the growth rate of
capital per capita:
k̇(t)
= sB 1−α L(0)1−α (131)
k(t)
Substitute (110), (112) and (128) into (109) and you get output and therefore
the growth rate of output:
1−α L(0)1−α
Y (t) = K(0)L(0)1−α B 1−α etsB (132)
Ẏ (t)
= sB 1−α L(0)1−α (133)
Y (t)
Output per capita and the growth rate of output per capita are given by:
1−α L(0)1−α
y(t) = k(0)L(0)1−α B 1−α etsB (134)
ẏ(t)
= sB 1−α L(0)1−α (135)
y(t)
Observations:
22
8.3.2 n>0
Substitute (126) into (125) and you get the growth rate of capital:
K̇(t)
gK (t) = = sB 1−α L(0)1−α e2nt(1−α) (136)
K(t)
Observations:
2. Because of (124), the growth rate of capital and therefore all the other
growth rates are ever increasing
3. The growth rates depend on the populations growth n and the saving
rate s
1. Because of (114), the growth rate of capital and therefore all the other
growth rates are positive
23
9 Human Capital
Theories based on knowledge accumulation cannot explain cross-country
differences in incomes because knowledge is not rival and most of the time
non-excludable. In fact even when it is excludable it is likely that all coun-
tries could buy the use of the best technology.
However, the use of knowledge requires workers with appropriated skills
or abilities. This specific knowledge is called human capital.
9.1 Assumptions
• There is one physical output.
• There are four inputs: Physical capital, Raw labour, Human capital
and non-rival Knowledge.
24
L(t) = L(0)ent ⇔ L̇(t) = nL(t) (140)
A(t) = A(0)egt ⇔ Ȧ(t) = gA(t) (141)
From (137) and (138) we get:
1−α−β
K̇(t) = sK K(t)α H(t)β A(t)L(t) (142)
9.3 Analysis
Define capital per effective labor and human capital per effective labor:
K(t)
k(t) = (144)
A(t)L(t)
H(t)
h(t) = (145)
A(t)L(t)
Take the derivations of k(t) and h(t) with respect to time and use (142) and
(143) to get:
•
\ • • •
K(t) KAL − K(AL + AL)
k̇(t) = = (146)
A(t)L(t) A2 L2
• • •
K K A L
= − + (147)
AL AL A L
sK K α H β (AL)1−α−β K
= − (g + n) (148)
AL AL
= sK k(t)α h(t)β − (n + g)k(t) (149)
Similarly
ḣ(t) = sH k(t)α h(t)β − (n + g)h(t) (150)
25
1
1 1−α−β
h∗ = sαK sH
1−α
(152)
n+g
An important relation is that
sK k
=
sH h
K̇(t)∗
=g+n (154)
K(t)∗
•
Situation k(t) ≥ 0
From
•
k = sK k α hβ − (n + g)k ≥ 0
we get
k(n + g) ≤ sK k α hβ
k 1−α ≤ sK hβ (n + g)−1
26
1
sK 1−α β
k≤ h 1−α
n+g
with
β 1−α
< =1
1−α 1−α
•
So the curve is concave. Above k(t) = 0 the derivative is negative so k is
•
decreasing with time. The arrow goes down. Below k(t) = 0 the situation
is opposite.
•
Situation y(t) ≥ 0
From
•
h = sH k α hβ − (n + g)h ≥ 0
we get
h(n + g) ≤ sH k α hβ
1 1−β
kα ≥ h (n + g)
sH
1
n+g α 1−β
k≥ h α
sH
with
1−β 1−β
> =1
α 1−β
•
So the curve is convex. To the left of h(t) = 0 the derivative is positive so h
•
is increasing with time. The arrow goes to the right. To the right of h(t) = 0
the situation is opposite. The phase diagram shows that the steady state is
stable.
27
Divide (137) by A(t)L(t) to get output per effective labor:
Take the logarithm to both side of (158), manipulate and evaluate at the
steady state to get:
ln(y ∗ ) = αln(k ∗ ) + βln(h∗ ) (159)
Substitute (156) and (157) into (159) and rearrange:
α β α+β
ln(y ∗ ) = ln(sK ) + ln(sH ) − ln(n + g) (160)
1−α−β 1−α−β 1−α−β
Take the derivative with of (160) with respect to sK , sH respectively and
you get:
ẏ ∗ α 1
= [ln(y∗)]0 = (161)
y∗ 1 − α − β sK
ẏ ∗ β 1
= [ln(y∗)]0 = (162)
y∗ 1 − α − β sH
The elasticities of output per effective labor with respect to sK and sH are
then given by:
ẏ∗
y α
e sK = ṡK
= (163)
sK
1−α−β
ẏ∗
y β
e sH = ṡH
= (164)
sH
1−α−β
9.3.4 An application
Some part of the worker’s earning is due to human capital. To find out
how much we assume that the minimum wage reflects the inherent skills.
For example if we assume then that 14 the average wage w is associated to
non-accumulated skills while 34 w is due to human capital. As usual let α
be the physical capital share of national income. Then (1 − α) is the share
remaining for both acquired and non-aquired labour abilities. Assuming
that 43 comes from human capital we get β = 34 (1 − α).
In agreement with this order of magnitude let α = 0.35 and β = 0.4 so
that 1 − α − β = 0.25. With these values we get
0.35 0.4 0.75
ln(y ∗ ) = ln(sK ) + ln(sH ) − ln(n + g) (165)
0.25 0.25 0.25
or
ln(y ∗ ) = 1.4 ln(sK ) + 1.6 ln(sH ) − 3 ln(n + g) (166)
28
while with Solow we would get
The difference between the two model;s is large. Indeed, assume that the
saving rates are twice in country B compared to country A and that (n + g)
is 20% smaller in country B. Then
giving
so that
yB
= e2.75 = 15.6
yA
while with Solow we would have
yB
= e0.4 = 1.6
yA
Because of large elasticities of output respect the underlying determinants
of the model, the model has the potential to explain cross country income
differences.
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10 Malthus
Historical data shows that before the industrial revolution, increase in to-
tal output was “used” to increase population rather than income per capita.
This is because the minimal subsistance level constraint was binding. Malthu-
sian models try to explain the observed rise in population during this pe-
riod. They endogeneise n. The models of knowledge accumulation with and
without capital can we used as they predict a relationship between growth
in total output and population growth n.
The main assumptions of the model we consider here are the following:
2. Population adjusts so that the output per capita is fixed at the sub-
sistance level ȳ
Y (t)
= ȳ ⇔ Y (t) = ȳL(t) (169)
L(t)
Ȧ(t)
gA (t) = = BL(t) (170)
A(t)
The model can be solved. Indeed, first put (eq: 64) and (169) together,
multiply both side of this equation by L(t)α−1
1−α
L(t)α−1 Rα A(t)L(t) = ȳL(t)L(t)α−1 (171)
giving
1−α
Rα A(t) = ȳL(t)α (172)
L̇(t) 1 − α Ȧ(t) 1 − α
n(t) = = = BL(t) (174)
L(t) α A(t) α
Equation (174) can be tested empirically by an econometric regression. The
result is
n(t) = −0.0023 + 0.524L(t)
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and the fit is very good.
A second test of the theory is to consider economies that were isolated
for long periods of time. They were four blocs that were separated at the
end of the ice age with no communication until 1500. As we can assume
thay the density was identical when they were separated, the population
density in 1500 reflects the poplutation growth rate since the end of the ice
age. Larger blocs had a larger initial population so that they are expected
to grow faster with a resulting higher population density in 1500. The data
agree with the prediction
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