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Compute MAD, MSE and MAPE For The Following Data, Showing Actual and Forecasted Numbers of Accounts Serviced

The document provides information and examples on computing various forecasting metrics and methods including MAD, MSE, MAPE, three-period moving average, four-period weighted average, and exponential smoothing. It includes sample time series demand data and steps to calculate forecasts using these different methods. Formulas for exponential smoothing with alpha values of 0.1 and 0.4 are also provided.

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nasser alkhadhar
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1K views6 pages

Compute MAD, MSE and MAPE For The Following Data, Showing Actual and Forecasted Numbers of Accounts Serviced

The document provides information and examples on computing various forecasting metrics and methods including MAD, MSE, MAPE, three-period moving average, four-period weighted average, and exponential smoothing. It includes sample time series demand data and steps to calculate forecasts using these different methods. Formulas for exponential smoothing with alpha values of 0.1 and 0.4 are also provided.

Uploaded by

nasser alkhadhar
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Compute MAD, MSE and MAPE for the following data, showing actual and forecasted numbers of

accounts serviced.

Period Actual Forecast (A-F) Error |Error| Error 2 [|Error|/ Actual ]∗100
1 217 215
2 213 216
3 216 215
4 210 214
5 213 211
6 219 214
7 216 217
8 212 216 4
Compute a three – period moving average forecast given demand for shopping carts for the last five
periods.

Period Demand
1 42
2 40
3 43
4 40
5 41

F6=

If actual demand for the period 6 turns to be 38, then the moving average forecast for the period 7
would be:

F7=
Compute a four – period weighted average forecast given demand for shopping carts for the last five
periods. The weights of periods are 0.4 for the most recent period, 0.3 for the next most recent
period, 0.2 for the next and 0.1 for the next.

Period Demand
1 42
2 40
3 43
4 40
5 41

F6=

If actual demand for the period 6 turns to be 39, then the weighted average forecast for the period 7
would be:

F7=
National Scan. Inc., sells radio frequency tags. Monthly sales for the 10-month period were as
presented in table. Compute demand forecast using the exponential smoothing.

Use formula Ft=Ft-1 + α(At-1- Ft-1)

Period Actual Forecast Forecast


Α=0.1 Α=0.4
1 42 - -
2 40 42 42
3 43
4 40
5 41 41.73 41.15
6 39 41.66 41.39
7 46
8 44
9 45
10 38

Alternatively, use formula Ft=(1-α)Ft-1 +αAt-1

Period Actual Forecast Forecast


Α=0.1 Α=0.4
1 42 - -
2 40 42 42
3 43
4 40
5 41
6 39
7 46
8 44
9 45
10 38
1. Time Series Forecasting
Part 1 of 3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHdYEZA50KE
Part 2 of 3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5C012eMSeIU
Part 3 of 3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcfiu-f88JQ
2. Exponential Smoothing Forecast Excel 2016 Data Analysis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGR2ebAQkrg

3. Forecasting Methods made simple - Exponential Smoothing


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=el636-1_GVE

4. Forecasting in Excel Using Simple Linear Regression


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BU9ajrYoOU

5. Using Multiple Regression in Excel for Predictive Analysis


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgfHefwK7VQ

6. Forecasting with Holt's Method using Excel


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbFFkc0S6tc

7. How to Holts Winters Method in Excel & optimize Alpha, Beta & Gamma
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQ9szvszg9E

8. Triple Exponential Smoothing


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIvNcQQkxTM

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