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Revised 2019/20: European Union Imports Are Forecast Up 2.0 Million Bags To 49.5 Million and Account For Nearly 45

Nicaragua's coffee production is forecast to decline for a third consecutive year due to coffee rust. Central American and Mexican bean exports are expected to remain flat at 14.5 million bags, with over 45% destined for the European Union and about one-third to the United States. World coffee production and exports are projected to decrease by 2.4 million bags and 3.4 million bags respectively due to lower yields and output in Honduras, Mexico, Vietnam, Colombia, and Honduras caused by issues like coffee rust.

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37 views1 page

Revised 2019/20: European Union Imports Are Forecast Up 2.0 Million Bags To 49.5 Million and Account For Nearly 45

Nicaragua's coffee production is forecast to decline for a third consecutive year due to coffee rust. Central American and Mexican bean exports are expected to remain flat at 14.5 million bags, with over 45% destined for the European Union and about one-third to the United States. World coffee production and exports are projected to decrease by 2.4 million bags and 3.4 million bags respectively due to lower yields and output in Honduras, Mexico, Vietnam, Colombia, and Honduras caused by issues like coffee rust.

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Red Densoner
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continue to implement programs to replace trees with rust-resistant varieties.

Nicaragua’s production is
forecast to drop a third consecutive year on lower yields due to coffee rust. The combined bean exports
for Central America and Mexico are forecast flat at 14.5 million bags. Over 45 percent of the region’s
exports are destined for the European Union, followed by about one-third to the United States.

European Union imports are forecast up 2.0 million bags to 49.5 million and account for nearly 45
percent of the world’s coffee bean imports. Top suppliers include Brazil (29 percent), Vietnam (23
percent), Colombia (7 percent), and Honduras (6 percent). Ending stocks are expected to rise 1.0 million
bags to 14.5 million.

The United States imports the second-largest amount of coffee beans and is forecast up 2.0 million bags
to 27.0 million. Top suppliers include Brazil (24 percent), Colombia (22 percent), Vietnam (16 percent),
and Honduras (6 percent). Ending stocks are forecast to grow 500,000 bags to 7.0 million.

Revised 2019/20

World production is lowered 2.4 million bags from the December 2019 estimate to 166.9 million.
 Honduras is down 900,000 bags to 5.6 million on lower yields due to rust damage.
 Mexico is lowered 850,000 bags to 3.7 million as yields did not rebound as much as anticipated.
 Vietnam is revised down 925,000 bags to 31.3 million on reduced area and yield.

World bean exports are reduced 3.4 million bags to 112.0 million.
 Vietnam is lowered 1.5 million bags to 24.0 million on reduced exportable supplies.
 Colombia is revised 700,000 bags lower to 12.0 million on lower output.
 Honduras is down 700,000 bags to 5.5 million on reduced exportable supplies.

World bean imports are lowered 2.7 million bags to 109.7 million.
 The United States is down 1.2 million bags to 25.0 million on lower consumption and stocks
build-up.
 European Union is reduced 500,000 bags to 47.5 million on lower consumption and stocks build-
up.

The next release of this publication will be on December 11, 2020.

European Union definition: includes countries in the customs union, including the UK (Austria,
Belgium/Luxembourg, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal,
Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom).

The United Kingdom remains a member of the EU Customs Union for the duration of the transition
period which expires December 31, 2020. A notice will be posted on respective USDA web pages to
inform the public of how we intend to handle splitting the United Kingdom from the rest of the EU in our
forecasts, GAIN reporting and other data well in advance of any changes. The WASDE, FAS reports, and
FAS databases will continue to reflect the EU-28 (EU-27+UK) until further notice.

For additional information, please contact Tony Halstead at 202-720-4620, or [email protected]

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 3 June 2020


Global Market Analysis

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