The Impact of Political Communication On Voting Behaviour: A Comparative Study in Karnataka, Kerala & Tamil Nadu
The Impact of Political Communication On Voting Behaviour: A Comparative Study in Karnataka, Kerala & Tamil Nadu
By
Nirmal Jacob
Senior Lecturer in Journalism
Post –Graduate Dept of Communication
Shri Bhagwan Mahaveer Jain College
Bangalore
2010
The implicit assumption of the propaganda researchers and their followers was
that communication messages delivered by mass media could not only provide
information to the public but could also change opinions.
However the powerful medial concept was shaken by1940 study of voters and
voting behavior in Eric Count, Ohio. Instead of swaying voters and marshalling
change, the press was seen as more of reinforcing influence. Scholars began to doubt
influence of the media as change agents in communication.
1
Significance of the study
In the affairs of the state these two forces, politicians and mass media are in
constant touch with each others to fulfill their responsibility to the public. The
present study is an attempt to probe the varied perceptions and political behavior of
people belonging to different political parties and who subscribe to different political
ideologies.
A natural conflict exists between the two, with the media serving as a
watchdog over the government and politics. Skilled politicians use the media as a
cover up for their fallacies in public life. Thus they manipulate the media to divert the
attention of the people. The study will also reveal how a sizeable section of politicians
in these three southern state are reaping political benefits by resorting to manipulative
operations by splitting the nation into majority and minority groups. Further by
probing the kind of political content in newspapers and television channels in
Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the study will also help us to check the
accelerated activities of the divisive forces in the country by the unholy alliance of the
media and the politicians in the trouble prone areas of these states.
2
The constructive political communication can help to solve some of the
problems like economic crisis, political turmoil, social and ethnic unrest and the age-
old injustice and exploitation. The present study may help us to have an objective
political communication.
1. To find out the impact and the role of media especially the newspapers and
television channels on the voting behavior of the people in Karnataka, Kerala and
Tamil Nadu.
2. To find out the impact of political campaigns on voting behavior during elections
in Karnataka, Kerala and Tamilnadu.
4. To find out the impact of election manifesto on voting behavior of the people in
Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
6. To find out the views of the voters on the trend of the misuse of news columns for
the purpose of personality cult than for development purposes.
3
Voter behavior studies by John P Robinson were a significant one among
media effect studies: Beginning with the Presidential election of 1968, the Robinson
gathered data that demonstrated the strength of newspaper editorial endorsements in
influencing voter behavior. In his article, Robinson reports his finding from five
elections and concludes that even when the other factors are taken into accounts,
voters choices are related to endorsements by newspapers to which they are exposed.
Robinson make no wild claim about massive conversion as result of newspaper
editorial endorsements but points up the significant impact they can have on a small
segment of voters which can sometimes make the difference in a closed election.
Study after study reinforced the 1940 research and its results. Joseph Klapper
who conducted media studies for two decades concluded that mass media does not
ordinarily serve as a necessary as sufficient cause of audience effects, but rather
functions between and among and through a nexus of mediating factors and
influences.
People usually discussed politics with those similar in outlook and perspective
and thus these experiences usually reinforce initial beliefs. Later research (Katz,
Lazeresfeld, 1955) recorded that information from the media often was filtered
through others. These opinion leaders usually shared same outlook and perceptive as
4
those with whom they converse. The result was that most of the information reaching
the individual ordinarily had agreeable and reinforcing cast. Thus the importance of
presidential election campaigns and the first televised presidential debates between
Kennedy and Nixon in 1960 were all interpreted as having some role in political
socialization and drawing the attention an interest of young persons to political
events. But they were not seen as particularly representing phenomenon attributable
largely to the mass media ( Eston and Dennis, 1969, Hess and Torny, 1967) ( Syndey
Kraus, 1976)
In the 1950 the influence of television on voting behavior become clear with
the significant fill up it gave to the election campaign of Eisenhower in the US
Presidential election. Later in the 1960 Kennedy won closely contested election
against Nixon. Kennedy scored over Nixon in television debates due to his
charismatic screen persona. The listeners of the same debate on radio taught that
Nixon had come out on top. The eventual victory of Kennedy unveiled the hitherto
untapped potential of television.
5
In relation to public opinion effects Lang & Lang (1981) argue that minimal
effect conclusion is only one particular interpretation which has gained undue
currency.
One reason for reluctance to accept the minimal effect conclusion was the
arrival of television in the 1950s and 1960s as new media. Though there are many
contributors for the newer theories of effect, it was Noelle Newmann ( 1973) who
coined the slogan return to the concept of powerful mass media which serve to
indentify this phase of research.
The first media construct social formation and secondly people in audience
construct their own view of social reality and their place in it, in interaction with the
symbolic constructions offered by the media. The research allows both for the power
of people to choose, with a terrain of continuous negotiation in between. It is a
formulation of effect process well with mediation perspective.
Research Design:
6
questionnaire of three different sets meant for Karnataka, Kerala and Tamilnadu. With
the questionnaire consisting of political content of newspaper and television channels
in Karnataka, Kerala and Tamilnadu, the researcher has conducted a survey among
the voters of these three states to study the impact of political communication on
voting behavior. It also covered questions meant to illicit personal and demographic
information. The questionnaire consisited of both open ended and closed questions.
In the case of Karnataka and Kerala a random sample of 385 voters each selected for
the purpose of the study, whereas in the case of Tamilnadu a random sample of 380
voters belonging to various socio-economic, political and religious background were
selected for the purpose of the study.
Thus the data obtained from the field survey have been analysed statistically
on the following lines.
Chi- Square
X2 = Σ(O – E) 2 / E
d.f
Findings:
7
behavior of the voters. Whereas 11.55% of the voters in Karnataka has rejected
the media impact on voting behavior.
But in the case of Kerala 82.6% of the voters stated that media has considerable
impact on the voting behavior of the people of Kerala. But at the same time 17.4%
of the voters in Kerala rejected the impact the media impact on voting behavior.
Compared to Karnataka the rating of the media impact in Kerala is less. The
rejection rate of the media impact of Kerala can be attributed to the political
consciousness and due to the influence of cadre party like CPM.
In the case of Tamilnadu, the rating of the media impact is less with that of
Karnataka and Kerala. Only 79.21% of the voters in Tamilnadu stated the media
impact on their voting behavior. The rejection rate of the media impact is greater
in Tamilnadu with that of Karnataka and Kerala. It may be due to cultural factors
like intimacy of ‘Annan” and due to the positive image of Tamil leaders.
2. The study also focused on the variations of the media impact in the case of
electronic media and print media on voting behavior. In the case of newspapers
the highest rating figured with Kerala with 68. 83% . The second highest rating of
the newspaper impact figured with Karnataka and the third position figured with
Tamilnadu. The highest rating of the newspaper impact on voting in Kerala can be
due to the popularity of newspaper reading and due to the highest literacy.
But in the case of televisions, the highest impact on voting behavior figured with
voters in Karnataka. Almost the same percentage (71%) voters in Kerala rated the
television impact on voting. Tamilnadu figured in the bottom line in matters of
television impact on voting with 64% of the voters rating. The rejection rate of
television impact on voting behavior is much more in Tamilnadu than that of
Karnataka and Kerala. Since the political culture of Tamilnadu is extension of
film culture which means film has influenced a lot in the life of individuals in
Tamil society. In other words role played by television channels in Karnataka and
Kerala is performed by the Tamil films rather than television channels in
Tamilnadu.
3. The study also focus on the impact of political campaign strategies on voting
behavior in Karnataka, Kerala and Tamilnadu as the study has revealed that, out
8
of the eleven catorgories of campaign strategies depicted in the list of political
campaigns, political rallies, meetings , jathas and campaign speeches gained the
highest rating in Karnataka compared with other strategies. At the same time in
Kerala the highest rating of impact on voting figured with house to house
campaign. In the case of Tamilnadu the highest rating of impact of election
strategies on voting behavior figured with the campaign strategy of political
discussions and debates through television channels.
4. Further the study also focused on the impact of various policy decision and its
implementation by various political parties on voting behavior in Karnataka,
Kerala and Tamilnadu. In matters of eleven policy decision of various political
parties and its implementation of the same and its impact on voting behavior of
the Karnataka voters, BJP has gained the maximum mandate of voters for the
implementation of the police policy, employment, agriculture, health, financial
and taxation policy. Whereas Congress has gained the maximum mandate of the
voters for education, reservation, multi – religious and trade policies. Whereas the
disinvestment policy is concerned the Karnataka voters rejected all political
parties.
Another interesting outcome of the study is, out of the eleven policy decisions
considered for the purpose of the study in Kerala, LDF has gained maximum
mandate for agricultural policy, education and employment policies of LDF and
very less for multi-religious policies and alarming percentages of voters have
stated that none of the political parites of Kerala are sincere to the successful
implementation of these policies .
In the case of Tamilnadu with regard to the impact of policy decision and its
implementation on voting behavior of the voters, DMK has gained the highest
rating for policy decisions and its implementation in Tamilnadu.
9
Out of the eleven policy decision listed in the study DMK has gained the highest
mandate for education policy, reservation policy, financial policy, taxation policy
and multi – religious policy, trade policy, employment policy, disinvestment
policy and health policy. Whereas AIADMK has gained the highest mandate for
police policy out of the eleven policy listed in the study. DMK’s education policy
secured the maximum mandate of the tamil voters.
5. Another endeavor of the study was to find out the impact and merit of election
manifesto on voting behavior. In the case of Karnataka, BJP has scored the
highest mandate for the election manifesto compared to the other political parties.
But BJP is minority when we consider, the combined mandate secured by political
parties like Congress I, JD S and others. 27% of Karnataka voters considered that
no political party in Karnataka has declared a meaning election manifesto. In other
word a total of 64.5% of the voters in Karnataka rejected the election manifesto of
the present ruling party and 70% of the women voters stated that none of the
political parties have presented meaningful election manifesto.
In the case of Kerala, majority of voters (45.71%) stated that comparatively LDF
has declared a meaningful election manifesto. Whereas in the case of Tamilnadu
majority of voters (41.84%) preferred the election manifesto of DMK compared to
the other five political parties of Tamilnadu. The impact of election manifesto is
almost similar on voting both Kerala and Tamilnadu. But in Karnataka it has
lesser impact compared to Kerala and Tamilnadu. In Tamilnadu the higher
mandate for election manifesto may be due to the development programmes
launched mainly for the downtrodden. Election manifesto is considered to be the
blue print for the would be government and the promises to the people of the
agenda of things, they would be implementing once they are voted to power. But
the lack of the impact of manifesto shows the popularity of unscientific election
campaign in Indian politics.
6. As stated in the objective, one of the endeavor of the study was to find out the
objectivity in political news reporting of newspapers and television channels and
its impact on voting behavior in Karnataka, Kerala and Tamilnadu. In matters of
objectivity to prominent popular dailies like The Hindu and The Times of India
seems to be more popular among Karnataka voters in matters of objectivity in
10
political news reporting. Out of the 22 newspapers of Karnataka both in English
and Kannada, Vijaya Karnataka is the second most preferred newspaper of
Karnataka in matters of objectivity in political news reporting. The third position
figured with the Kannada newspaper Prajavani and Deccan Herald in the fourth
position. Whereas Udayavani figured in the eighth position in matters of
objectivity. Losing of credibility of Deccan Herald need concern which had high
standard of journalism set by eminent journalist like Pothan Joseph.
In Kerala The Hindu seems to be the highest rated English newspaper in matters
of objectitivity in political news reporting and Mathrubhumi has gained the
highest rate in among all other English and Malayalam newspapers in matters of
objecitive political news reporting. Manorama figured in the second position and
Deshabhimani, the voice of the Communist Party figured in the third position in
matters of objectivity. Indian Express and Deepika figured in the fourth position.
Madhyamam, Chandrika, Mangalam and Kerala Kaumudi figured in the
bottomline in matters of objectivity. The major outcome of the study in matters of
objectivity in political news reporting , 65% of the voters belonging to various
socio-political, economic and religious background donot have faith in Kerala
newspapers.
In Tamilnadu The Hindu has gained the highest rating in matters of political news
reporting. Out of the eleven newspapers considered for the purpose of the study,
Dinamalar emerged as second most credible newspaper. In the rating scale Dina
Thanthi figured the third position and Dinakaran in the fourth position. Dinamani
and Indian Express figured in the fifth and sixth position.
Notable outcome of the study is 10% of the Tamil voters do not have faith in none
of the newspapers in matters of objectivity. Times of India, Malai Malar, Tuglak
figured in the bottom line.
In the case of Karnatka television channels considered for the purpose of the study
of objective political news reporting, TV9 emerged as the most objective
television channels in matters of political news reporting . NDTV figured in the
second and CNN-IBN has the third, ETV has the fourth and Udaya figured the
fifth policy out of the fifteen popular channels of Karnataka selected for the
purpose of the study. The least preferred television channels in matters of
11
objective political news reporting is Headlines Today, Suvarna, DD channels and
Aaj Tak.
In Kerala, out of the twelve channels which considered for the purpose of the
study Asianet emerged as the most objective channel in matters of political news
reporting and Indiavision as the second most objective and Kairali and DD
Malayalam figured in the third and fourth position in matters of objectivity in
political news reporting. But 13.77% of voters in Kerala do not have faith in none
of the television channels. Manorama channel figured in the fifth position since
channel was at its embryonic stage at the time of the study. CNN-IBN, BBC and
NDTV happen to be the least preferred channels in Kerala.
7. With respect to the objective of the newspapers trend to misuse the news columns
for the purpose of personality cult than for development purpose, majority of the
voters in Karnataka, Kerala and Tamilnadu stated that newspapers in those three
southern states by and large misuse their news columns for the purpose of
personality cult than for the promotion of development programmes. Majority of
the highly educated group of voters in Karanataka, Kerala and Tamilnadu felt that
newspapers by and large misuse their news columns for the personality cult than
for development purposes. Compared to Karnataka and Tamilnadu higher
percentages of voters in Kerala felt the misuse of news columns for the purpose of
personality cult than for development purposes.
8. Another endeavor of the study was to find out the demographic factors on the
impact of political communication on voting behavior in Karnataka, Kerala and
Tamilnadu. Like the socio- political, cultural and ideological differences, the
12
study has revealed that there are differences in matters of the impact of political
communication and its different manifestations especially the dissemination of
news and its impact on voters, the priorities of policies of political parties and
government and its implementation. Priorities of development program and its
implementation, differences also could be observed in matters of adoption of
election campaign strategies in Karnataka, Kerala and Tamilnadu. Differences
also could be observed on the impact of newspapers and television channels and
in the objectivity of political news reporting, both in the print and electronic media
and its impact on voting behavior. The study also indicated the differences
between the male and female voters with that of the less educated voters. The
differences were also indicated in matters of the popularity of the media and
political leadership preferred by the voters.
Highest rating of the media impact figured with the Karnataka voters. Compared
to Karnataka media impact in Kerala is less. The rejection rate of the media
impact is higher in Kerala. But in Tamilnadu the media impact is less compared to
that of Karnataka and Kerala. Film media has greatly influenced the Tamil culture
and politics. Compared to Karnataka slightly greater percentage of voters of
Kerala have rated the newspapers impact on voting behavior.
It is evident from the study that the election campaign strategy on voting is not
uniform in Karnataka, Kerala and Tamilnadu. Different campaign strategy has
different impact on voting behavior of the voters in those three states. When
political rallies, meetings, jathas and campaigns speeches has maximum impact on
voting behavior on Karnatka, House to House campaign has maximum impact on
voting behavior in Kerala. Whereas discussion and debate through television
channels have the maximum impact on the voters in Tamilnadu. Party newspapers
have almost equal impact on voting in both Karantaka and Kerala. Election
Manifesto have almost similar impact in Kerala and Tamilnadu. But in Karnataka,
Election Manifesto has lesser impact. Street plays as campaign strategy has more
impact on the voters of Karnataka than Kerala and Tamilnadu.
In matters of the policy decisions and its implementation of political parties and
its impact on voting behavior in Karnataka, Kerala and Tamilandu, BJP has
gained the maximum mandate for employment, agriculture, health and taxation
13
policies. Whereas Congress gained maximum mandate for education, reservation,
multi-religious and trade policies.
In Kerala LDF has gained the maximum mandate for Education policy, Police,
Reservation, employment, agriculture and health policies. An alarming
percentages of voters in Kerala have rejected the Health, Trade and Financial
policies of all political parties.
In Tamilnadu the study has indicated the highest rating of DMK in matters of
policy decision and its implementation and its impact on voting. But AIADMK
has gained the highest rating for police policy. The successful implementation of
various policies and welfare programme for the weaker sections can be the reason
for the massive mandate for DMK by Tamil people. Kalaignar has always titled
his development programs in favor of the weaker section in the society so as to get
social justice for them.
Another endeavor of the study was to find out the impact of socio-political,
economic and religious issues on voting behavior of the people in Karantaka,
Kerala and Tamilnadu. Out of the 22 contemporary issues of Karnataka which
considered for the purpose of the study, majority of the Karnataka voters lost their
faith in political parties and political leaders in Karnataka since they are unable to
solve most of their basic problems like Cauvery water dispute, educational
policies, liquor policies and many other issues which affected the development
and destiny of people of Karnataka. With regard to seven issues like Cauvery
water dispute, loosing of Fab City to Hyderabad, implementation of rules
regarding the wearing helmet as compulsory and the liquor policy of Karnataka
and Declaration of Belgaum as second capital of Karnataka , majority of the
voters of Karnataka preferred to abstain from voting and stated that they will not
vote for none of the political parties in Karnataka.
Out of the three major political parties like JD (S) , Congress and BJP, JD (S) has
gained the highest mandate of Karnataka voters for speedy rehabilitation effort in
flood hit villages of Bakalgot and Gulbarga, Congress for their stand on the issue
on Communal violence in Mangalore, BJP has gained the highest mandate for the
religious issues like Baba Buddadatha Shrine. Analysis on the crucial issues of
Karnataka and its tackling various political parties, JD (S) seems to have genuine
14
interest for the development for Karnataka and well being. It is evident from the
priorities of development and their sincerity in tackling some of the basic
problems of the rural people.
In the case of Kerala, out of the 22 socio-political, economic and religious issues
considered for the purpose of the study on the impact of political communication
on voting behavior, farmer’s suicide had the highest impact on the voting behavior
on the people and great majority of the electorates in Kerala prefer to vote for
LDF than other political parties in Kerala. Out of the 22 socio-political issues
considered misuse of Tsunami fund gained the second highest impact on voting
behavior. The other prominent issues figured in the minds of Keralites were
professional college bill, education policy of political parties, distribution of
drinking water and flood relief operations.
In the case of socio-economic political issues considered and its impact on voting
in Tamilnadu, a great majority of voters prefer to vote for DMK than other
political parties in Tamilnadu. Out of the 15 contemporary socio-political issues
considered, the highest percentages of voting behavior figured with the issue of
violence and arson on Dinakaran newspaper and Sun TV, Backward class
commission ‘s report and abolishing of common entrance test. The voters who
preferred to vote for AIADMK , highest percentages of the voters figured with
the socio-political issues like Naxalite attack, Cauvery water dispute and protest
against disinvestment of Neyveli Lignite Company.
With regard to the misuse of news columns for the purpose of personality cult,
majority of the votes in Karnataka, Kerala and Tamilnadu stated that newspapers
by and large misuse their news columns for the personality cult than for
promotion of development programmes. Compared to Karnataka and Tamilnadu,
higher percentages of voters in Kerala felt the misuse of news columns for the
purpose of the personality cult. Another notable feature emerged from the study is
majority of the highly educated group of voters in Karnataka, Kerala and
Tamilnadu felt that newspapers by and large misuse their news columns for
personality cult than development purposes.
15
Conclusion:
Since the main attempt of the study was to find out the impact of political
communication on voting behavior in Karnataka, Kerala and Tamilnadu, it is
found that mass media especially the political communication through newspapers
and television channels do have impact on voting behavior of the people in
Karnataka, Kerala and Tamilnadu.
The highest rating of media impact figured with Karnataka, (88%); it can be
attributed to the scientific use of media by the Karnataka politicians for the
political propaganda or it may due to credibility of the media and the belief system
of the people of Karnataka which further needs scientific studies.
16