12/7/2019 PROJECT

UNCERTAINTY
AND RISK
MANAGEMENT
IT Project Uncertainty and Risk Management

ABSTRACT
The term project itself could be a synonym for uncertainty as uncertainty is an inevitable part of
most projects, varying only in nature and extend. However, nobody can predict the future and
even the most proficient project managers find difficulty handling it, as they understand that
everything in a project is subject to change and that each change has ripple effects. In order to
manage uncertainties effectively, then it is important not only to differentiate between the
different types of uncertainty, but also to understand the different ways in which they behave.
This paper mainly discusses on project uncertainties, problem-solving strategies for managing
project uncertainties; from variation to chaos, IT project risks, methods to enhance project risk
management, how to mitigate project risks, IT project processes and knowledge areas. However,
throughout the paper, it is clear that risks can be organized and quantified with a view to
reducing their damaging effects while uncertainty is unforeseen and cannot be predetermined.

INTRODUCTION
The concepts of uncertainties and risks have been the subject of discussion in various fields and
academic dissertation for a quiet long time. Moreover, uncertainty exists in all areas of life, and
humans react to it in various ways, which means judgement decisions need to be made at all
times. This has called for various methods and strategic approach aimed at understanding the
concept of uncertainties and risks. Managing these extraordinary, ambiguous situations has
become a discipline in its own right over the past years, especially in a business context. Risk
refers to both negative and positive outcomes that can be calculated through probabilities and
historical occurrences whereas, uncertainties are unforeseen negative or positive eventualities
that cannot be determined contemporary. There are several tools, techniques and approaches for
managing the triple constraints of a project, that is, Scope, Cost and Time. Risk is an innate
aspect of each of these constraints, as assumptions and expectations are used in defining and
executing a project. Therefore, assumptions and expectations introduce uncertainty into the
project life cycle. As project management is becoming a more common way of managing
business in today’s competitive economy, the project team member’s ability to identify and react
to uncertainties is vital. Risk management is suggested to be part of every project, every function
and within the organization as a whole. The aim of this research is to improve the management
of risk and opportunity within a project organization. That management starts from the very start
of the project and ends with the focus on vulnerabilities and the ability of the project team
members to realize them.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT ………………………………………………………………………………………1

INTRODUCTION ………………………………………………………………………………..1

IT PROJECT MANAGEMENT…………………………………………………………………..3

IT PROJECT MANAGEMENT PROCESS & ROLE OF IT PROJECT MANAGER…………..3

THE 10 PROJECT MANAGEMENT KNOWLEDGE AREAS…………………………………4

NATURE OF IT PROJECTS …………………………………………………………………….6

IT PROJECT RISK AND RISK MANAGEMENT………………………………………………7

HOW TO MANAGE IT RISKS.……………………………………………………………….…8

UNCERTAINTY IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT …….………………………………………10

CONCLUSION………………………………………………………….……………………….13

REFERENCE………………………………………………………….……………………..…..13

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IT PROJECT MANAGEMENT
According to Project Management Institute (PMI), Project Management is "a temporary
endeavor undertaken to create a unique product, service, or result." In order to deliver a project
successfully, an IT project manager must consider the three constraints of project management,
often referred as the “triple constraint”, namely; scope, time, and cost and balance these three
competing goals. IT project managers must not only meet the scope, time, cost, and quality
constraints of the project, but also must facilitate the entire process to meet the needs and
expectations of everyone involved in project activities or affected by them like the stakeholders.
Unlike other business endeavors, a project has a starting point and finishing point, after which
the people and resources dedicated to the project are re-assigned. The project
management process involves initiating, planning, executing, monitoring and closing the project
and there are ten knowledge areas. The project management framework includes the project
stakeholders, project management knowledge areas, and project management tools and
techniques. Project management tools and techniques, such as critical path analysis, Gantt chart,
project network diagrams, to name a few, help the project managers and their team members in
carrying out work in all ten knowledge areas. There are several ways to define the success of a
project, and IT project managers must comprehend the criteria that define success of the unique
project.

IT PROJECT MANAGEMENT PROCESSESS AND ROLE OF IT

PROJECT MANAGERS IN EACH PHASE
In order to improve the control and quality of the project and to make sure that the project is
delivered on time; meeting the stakeholder’s expectation, the project work is grouped into
several related process. There are 5 processes in an IT project management lifecycle, where each
process has a similar task and lead up to a major deliverable. They are:

Initiate: During this process, a project is formally authorized by the sponsors and the project
scope is defined at a broad level and the stakeholders are identified. This process group is
performed to secure an effective progression of the preliminary project activities and set the
stage for consequent success through all project phases. Activities performed by the project
manager during the initiation phase include establishing the project initiation team, establishing a
relationship with the customer, establishing a relationship with the customer, establishing the
project initiation plan, establishing management procedures, establishing the project
management environment and developing the project charter.

Plan: After the initiation process, the project is planned in detail where more clarification of all
project goals and expectations are laid out ensuring that the project meets the organization’s

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requirements. The Project management plan encompasses of several individual plans, such as,
scope management plan, risk management plan, Communication management plan etc., where
eventually information from all the plans are coordinated. Activities performed by the project
manager in this process involves describing project scope, alternatives and feasibility, dividing
the project into manageable tasks.

Execute: This process involves managing teams effectively by coordinating human resource and
other resources to meet the benchmark goals. It is in the execution phase that most of the budget
would be utilized and deliverables are produced. This phase of the project requires the most
amount of time and resources. Activities in the execution process includes Quality Assurance
checks, conducting procurements etc. Tasks performed by the project manager involve executing
the baseline project plan, monitoring project progress against the baseline project plan, managing
changes to the baseline project plan, maintaining the project workflow, communicating the
project status.

Monitor & Control: This process deals with monitoring the progress of the ongoing project and
measuring it against the project plan to make any changes if necessary, to meet the project
objectives. Some of the activities of the IT project manager in this process include processing
change orders, monitoring the project constraints (cost, time, and scope), identifying corrective
actions to mitigate the risks etc.

Close: Closing process is the final process where project is formally closed. Activities in the
closing phase include delivering the product, relieving resources, reward and recognition to the
team members and formal termination of contractors in case they were employed on the project.
The activities of an IT project manager during the closedown phase involves; closing down the
project, conducting project reviews and closing the customer contract

The process groups can either be applied for each major phase or iteration of a project or can be
applied to an entire project.

THE 10 PROJECT MANAGEMENT KNOWLEDGE AREAS

To manage a project effectively, it is essential to understand the project management knowledge
areas. There are ten knowledge areas which brings the project to life and contains the activities
that holds the project together. These are the skills a project manager must practice and master to
manage a project efficiently. They are:

1. Project Scope Management - Under the project scope management, the project scope is
defined, documented, and approved, the project boundaries are well defined, the project scope is

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validated by the project stakeholders for project acceptance. The process is all about making sure
that everyone is on the same page and is clear about project objectives.

2. Project Time Management - This process ensures the timely completion of the project by
defining the project working hours, project milestone and finally the project deadline. The
project team’s availability is documented throughout the project and planned accordingly. The
project manager will work and analyze the project team to identify the project tasks allotments
and estimates task duration in order to create a project timeline

3. Project Cost Management – This process ensures the project is completed within the
approved budget. It includes plan cost management, cost estimates, budget determination and
cost controls. It measures the cost and productivity of the project throughout the life cycle of the
project. This process tracks the project's overall expenditure against the actual budget to make
sure that the project is moving in track with the fixed budget.

4. Project Quality Management – This process determines if the project will satisfy the
standard for which it was undertaken, that is, if the quality of the project deliverables meets the
expectation of the stakeholders involved in the project by performing quality assurance checks,
quality control inspects, to name a few.

5. Project Integration Management – This is the process that ensures that the various attributes
of the project are properly coordinated. It happens from the start to end of a project. The process
examines the interactions among the knowledge areas and ensures that the project is adequately
planned, executed, controlled and closed.

6. Project Human Resource Management – The main objective of this process is to make the
most effective use of people involved with the project. The project manager works with the
project team to validate that each team member is performing and completing his tasks and is
coordinating well with others in the team.

7. Project Communications Management - This process, as the same suggests, is about

communication. Project knowledge communication is what keeps everyone involved in the
project on the same page. If a gap exists in communication, then that will cause a negative
impact on the project and may even lead to project failure. Communication must take place
regularly among the project manager, his team members and most importantly, the stake holders.

8. Project Risk Management – This process is all about identifying, analyzing, and responding
to project risk. Risks are situations, events, conditions that can intimidate, and sometimes benefit,
the objectives of the IT project. The probability and impact of each risk is evaluated to establish
a risk score to justify the costs needed to control the risk event.

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9. Project Procurement Management - This process relates to purchasing or acquiring goods,

services, or results apart from the performing organization. This process keeps track of all
project procurement starting from planning on what needs to be bought to closing the contract
when the project is finished.

10. Project Stakeholder Management – This process identifies and develops relationships with
those people and organizations that are involved in the project. Stakeholder’s engagement is very
crucial for determining the failure or success of a project as they are the ones who decide what
changes are to be made to meet their expectations. If they are not involved in the initial stage,
any changes set up them later during the project will hamper the quality and value of the project.

These ten project management knowledge areas are to be managed repeatedly throughout the
project.  Except for procurement, an IT project manager will likely encounter all ten of the
above-mentioned knowledge areas in every project. There is no one such order in which the
knowledge areas should be managed, but rather the IT project manager uses the appropriate
knowledge and processes based on what’s happening within the project. These knowledge areas
are the ultimate technical subject matter, which are essential for effective project management.

THE NATURE OF IT PROJECTS

An IT project deals with IT infrastructure, computer technology, or information systems to create
a service, product, or results. Unlike projects in other industries, IT projects are very diverse.
Although many of the processes are similar, a whole different approach to engineering each of
the projects is needed. There could be projects that can be completed in a day or could take years
to finish. There are projects that involve only a small number of people, such as a small software
development team adds a new feature to an internal software application for the purchasing
department of the company. And at the same time, there are projects that involves hundreds of
people examining business processes of several organizations and developing new software in a
joint effort with users to meet the business requirements. The requirements of complex IT
projects can change overtime with new requirements being added constantly while at the same
time re-evaluating the existing changes for deployment. Since a complex IT project involves a
lot of stakeholders with different roles and requirements, it is critical for the project manager to
keep everyone focused on the final goal within the allocated timeframe. Even for a simple
hardware-oriented project, a wide-ranging hardware types could be involved, like mainframe
computers, personal computers, laptops, tablets, smart phones, network equipment etc. And for
example, within the network equipment there could be diversity where the network equipment
could be wireless, cable-based, phone-based, to name a few. The nature of a software-oriented IT

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project is more diverse than a hardware development project. A software-oriented project

involves creating a simple Adobe Acrobat reader, Microsoft Excel or Access application, or a
sophisticated enterprise software like SAP, Salesforce CRM, Microsoft Azure, to name a few. IT
projects are involved in every possible industry and business organization. For example,
managing an IT project for a big screen company’s animation department would require
distinctive knowledge and skills by the IT project manager and the team members than a project
that involves improving a federal tax collection system or installing a communication
infrastructure in a foreign country. Because of its diversified nature and the newness of the field,
it is vital to follow best practices in managing these varied projects. That way, IT project
managers will have a common method to start and follow every project. As the IT market is
constantly evolving at a rapid pace, project managers should try to stay current in terms of
implementing modern IT practices with their current projects to maximize business yield and
efficiency and maintain their strong hold in their respective markets.

IT PROJECT RISKS AND RISK MANAGEMENT

Project risk is an uncertainty that can have a negative or positive effect on meeting project
objectives. Positive risk result in good outcomes for a project, whereas a negative risk or threat
result in negative outcomes.

The concept of risk management is extensive with a variety of meanings and disciplinary
belongings. It is the art and science of identifying, analyzing, and responding to risk throughout
the project life cycle with the main aim of meeting the project objectives Project risk
management involves understanding potential problems that might occur on the project and how
they might impede project success. Risk management is an investment as money is involved in
it. It can often result in substantial improvement in the ultimate success of a project. Controlling
negative risks involves several possible ways that project managers can try to avoid, change,
lessen or accept the potential effects of risks on the project. Whereas, positive risk management
is like investing in opportunities that will benefit the business. A positive impact on selecting
projects, defining their scope, and creating realistic schedules and cost estimates is possible
through risk management. It assists the stakeholders of the project to understand the nature of the
project, involves project team members in determining the strengths and weaknesses, and helps
to assimilate the other project management knowledge areas. Although many businesses know
that they are not doing a good job of managing project risk, little progress seems to have an
impact in improving risk management on an enterprise level. Risk management is more needed
now than ever before with high levels of uncertainty surrounding us on all sides.

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The investment that an organization is planning to make in risk management activities varies on
the nature of the project, the experience of the IT project team, and the constraints imposed on
both. But may it be any case, the cost for risk management should not exceed the potential profit
or benefits. Risk experts suggests that organizations should strive to find a balance between risks
and opportunities in all phases of a project. The risk tolerance policy differs from company to
company and project to project. Some organizations may accept the project if the risk is within
the tolerance level and is in balance with the benefits that may be gained by taking the risks.
Whereas some organizations have a neutral tolerance level for risks, they deal with risks
objectively by first analyzing the risk with different techniques and tools, and then make an
informed decision. Some have an aversion or opposition to take risks. They are usually not
supportive and tend to avoid risks unless the benefit to take on them is high enough to
overshadow the aversion of the risk. And there are others, who are risk seekers, who sees risks as
opportunities. They find it challenging to deal with risks and enjoys it, however, sometimes this
excessive optimism may lead to huge failures or loses in the project. Numerous companies are in
business today because they took risks that generated great opportunities. Companies survive
over the long term when they take risk and pursue opportunities.

HOW TO MANAGE IT PROJECT RISKS

IT projects often involve quite a many risk, including lack of user involvement, unclear
requirements, lack of executive management support, and poor planning. Risk and uncertainty
are innate parts of all project work. Which is why many projects, particularly big IT projects run
into trouble. Most of the IT projects run over budget and past deadline, that’s when risk turns
into real trouble for projects and their businesses.

But there are method or ways one can mitigate and manage risk. When the project management
team follows a good risk management process, then they can identify and deal with all the
project’s risks in a timely, appropriate and thorough manner. As discussed earlier that there are
both negative and positive risks, here’s a detailed explanation on how to manage both:

The four strategies used to manage a negative risk are:

1. Accept the risk: Accepting the risk means, when the team has identified a risk and logged it
in your risk management software, they take no action. They simply accept the risk, that the risk
might occur and decides to face and deal with it if it happens. This is a great strategy to use for
very insignificant risks, the risks that won’t have much of an impact on the project if they happen
and could be easily dealt with if or when they happen. It would be time consuming to put

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together an alternative risk management strategy or take action to deal with the risk, so it’s often
a better use of your resources to do nothing much for small risks.

2. Avoid the risk: It is basically eliminating a specific risk or threat, usually by eliminating its
causes. This is a great strategy for when a risk has a potentially huge or significant impact on the
project. For example, if November is the month when an organization’s purchasing team is busy,
doing the corporate accounts, putting them all through a training course in November to learn
new processes would not be the right thing to do. There’s a risk that the procurement department
wouldn’t get done. It’s more likely, though, that there’s a big risk to their ability to use the new
process, since they will all be too busy in November to attend the training or if they do go along
to the workshops, the possibility of them learning and implementing it would be very minimal.
Instead, it would be better to avoid the training completely during the month of January. Change
the project plan and schedule the training for December or January when the bulk work is over.

3. Transfer the risk: Transferring the risk basically refers to transferring the consequences and
responsibility of your risk to a third party. It is not a very often used strategy and tends to be
more common among projects that involve several parties. For instance, if a third party
contracted to write a particular company’s software code, then the company could transfer the
risk that there will be errors in the code over to the third party, where the third party will be
responsible for managing this risk. Usually the transference arrangements are mentioned during
the project contract is made.

4. Mitigate the risk: Risk mitigation refers to lessening the impact of a risk event by lowering
the probability of its occurrence. It is the most commonly used strategy to manage risk as it is
easy to follow and implement. Risk can be mitigated by identifying risks and opportunities,
determining likelihood and impact. using proven technology, having competent project
personnel, by regularly reviewing risks, by assigning owners to each risk, by using different
analysis and validation techniques, and buying maintenance or service agreements from
subcontractors.

The four commonly used strategy for managing positive risks are:

1. Risk exploitation: Risk exploitation refers to doing whatever it takes to make sure the positive
risk happens. For example, the risk that the new television is launched in a store, but they don’t
have enough sales staffs to demonstrate the product to their customers. Now this is a positive risk
that would benefit the project and the company if it happened. In such cases, project managers
try to maximize the chance that such risk happens and not stop it from happening or transfer the
benefit to another party.

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2. Risk sharing: Risk sharing refers to partnering the ownership of the risk with another party.
Sharing the risk with another is beneficial when the other party has expertise and experience that
the project team does not possess. If a threat occurs, then the partnering company takes some or
all the negative impact of the event. The third party will also derive some of the profit or benefit,
if the company delivers a successful project.

3.Risk enhancement - It is aimed at increasing the likelihood of a positive risk occurrence by

modifying the size of the opportunity of a positive risk. Here, the project manager will take
measures to increase the probability of the event happening or its impact, but there is no
guarantee that it will happen.

4. Risk acceptance – Risk acceptance involves not taking any actions towards the threat or try to
reduce the risk as the impact of the risk can be accepted as it wouldn’t affect the business. There
are two ways of accepting a risk, they are; passive and active acceptance strategy. Passive
acceptance involves no action except to document the strategy, allowing the project team to deal
with the opportunities as they happen. The active acceptance strategy refers to establishing a
contingency plan and reserves, including time, money, or resources to handle known or e
unknown, threats or opportunities.

IT project managers use a combination of these techniques and strategies and choose what suits
the best to control the project risk.

UNCERTAINTY IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Due to the complexity and nature of today’s projects, uncertainty and risks are inevitable parts of
the project lifecycle. Managing and delivering projects under uncertain conditions are a huge
challenge for all stakeholders involved, especially the project manager. Traditional Project
Management provides tools and techniques to efficiently manage risks, however, unlike risks,
uncertainties cannot be tackled in the same way since they are unknown until they arise thereby
making long-term planning in the beginning an inadequate form of management. Even though
Planning is a major component of traditional project management lifecycle, it does not account
for uncertainties that have not or could not be identified.

Facing Uncertainty:

Even though every project manager has faced an unanticipated situation, they always try their
best to conform to all the elements and avoid uncertainty wherever possible with the hope to
ensure success in their respective projects. For today’s complex projects with extensive plans set
up well in advance of the actual performance, it is irrational to think that a plan will truly reflect

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the outcome with 100% accuracy. Plans are nothing but predictions, which involves various
performance factors like:

 resource availability
 clarity and accuracy of project requirements
 unforeseen changes in requirements
 priorities and milestones
 design quality and aesthetics
 errors and response times
 reliance on external performance
 approval workflow
 and more

Uncertainty is certain and given the number of performance factors or variables involved, no one
can predict the outcome of a project with 100% accuracy, not even project managers. But project
managers overcome these challenges by planning ahead of time by starting the project early so
that they can address any problem that gets in the way and resolve it at the earliest time possible.
However, in reality not all plans work which is why project managers should always have a
backup plan, i.e. if plan A fails, be ready for plan B.

While uncertainties are inherent in projects, it is important to understand the elements of an

uncertain environment in order to find practical tools to deal with these situations and perhaps
even transform uncertainty into an opportunity for additional project value.

Reducing Uncertainty:

To help face the challenge of managing & performing in uncertainty, project managers can
devise a plan to split the project in various levels of detail, wherein each level can act as a point
of reference for an estimate and provide an overview of the project. The main reason of building
this hierarchy like as in a work breakdown structure, is to help identify phases, major functions
and intermediate & final deliverables and the tasks & sub-tasks that must be performed to deliver
them. By breaking the project into small manageable and meaningful deliverables, performed in
sprints, it is possible to tightly estimate the effort, number of resources and the duration of the
work required in each sprint to deliver a technical result, thereby lowering any possible
uncertainties. Project managers should also consciously provide estimates of the project that are
more than its actual estimate of completion so that they can incorporate any extra buffer for
uncertainties to happen.

During the implementation of an IT software project, when we take a step back from the coding
aspect of the project and look at the rest of the development process - requirements, design,

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review, refinement, acceptance, and integration - we recognize the existence of uncertainty and
the need for continuous plan refinement. These aspects of the project are difficult to estimate
with the same degree of precision as the typical software sprint, as it is fairly common to
recommend changes to the product directly after the product is released. Hence there is a need to
provide hyper-care support to carry users through their change process, logging defects, address
issues and suggest enhancements and improved features. This part of the process is complex, and
therefore there is a definite uncertainty involved. Nevertheless, we can still have a good sense of
a range of possible outcomes based on several factors such as:

 past experience
 knowledge of the end users and stakeholders and how they relate to one another
 gap analysis with previous product launches
 product quality and it’s desired performance

While it is almost impossible to eliminate uncertainty entirely in project management, there are
ways to reduce the possibility of its occurrence. When there are only fewer elements to be
considered in the estimation, the estimate becomes more reliable & uncertainty becomes lower.

Coping with Uncertainty:

After reducing uncertainties, the next step would be to understand how to cope with uncertainty
and check on a few strategies to implement to manage it effectively. The bottom line is that
uncertainty is a fact of life and must be considered in every project. To manage it:

 Break your project or program into clearly defined chunks - phases, activities, sprints,
etc. in levels of detail
 Embrace flexibility by using an agile project methodology style for smaller, faster-
moving projects.
 Use time as a contingency buffer and estimate top down at the high level when you are
far from performance
 Based on the identified risks, see where you might need to allocate more time in the
schedule. For example, add a time contingency buffer of one week before a key
milestone.
 Determine which portion of the project carries the greatest amount of risk (i.e. most
uncertainty; greatest potential for change orders)
 Implement the risky features first and assess the degree of volatility, uncertainty,
complexity, and ambiguity - of your project, sprints, tasks, etc.
 Make sure that everyone understands the nature of project planning and the need for
continuous refinement - the actual outcome will be known when the project is completed,
though, as the project progresses the estimates should be increasingly accurate

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 Use data to predict completion dates along with expected probability and show
management how the project captures uncertainty at each stage and that you have definite
plans to tackle it.
 Have a well-defined business objectives program and subproject objectives and make
sure everyone agrees in order to manage expectations.
 Add the extra available time to the high estimation of your best/worst case estimates.
This is your way of accepting that the risk or uncertainty could occur, and that you are
incorporating it as a part of your ranged estimations.
 Incorporate tribal knowledge and past project expertise.

CONCLUSION
In conclusion, risk and uncertainty are different because with risk, specific probabilities are used
to identify the risk, whereas with uncertainty, it is not possible to use specific probabilities. This
may lead to making sound judgement by the decision makers based on the available information,
instinct, knowledge of a specific project and attitudes and beliefs of the project team. Thus,
making decisions under conditions of risk where tasks of estimated probabilities are applicable
will allow project managers to develop strategies that will respond to it, such as managing and
controlling risk mitigation as a way of limiting the risk to the desired level. On the other hand,
uncertainty is everywhere and is deemed to be immeasurable. In order to manage threats, the
initial step starts with managing uncertainty. Risk management depend on evaluating and making
choices so that the risks; whose consequences have an high impact on the business are to be
prioritized. Once priority is determined, the management should utilize all the available
resources to lessen the probability of the occurrences. Control entails looking at the probability
of the negative threats and lessening them. By being proactive, insightful, and by taking a
holistic approach, risk can be controlled, and uncertainty can have a positive outcome.

REFERENCE
Information Technology Project Management, Revised 7th Edition by Kathy Schwalbe

https://www.strategyex.co.uk/blog/pmoperspectives/how-many-kinds-of-uncertainty-are-there/

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40663-014-0026-z

http://elpjournal.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/5-1-3.pdf

https://project-management.com/top-5-project-management-phases/

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https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:120557/FULLTEXT01.pdf

http://www.dbpmanagement.com/15/5-ways-to-manage-risk

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