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MSC 301 Assignment 2 (ID-16204037)

The document discusses using a linear trend method to forecast demand over 19 weeks, finding the trend line equation to be Y=3.5X + 46.64 based on actual past demand data. It then uses this equation to forecast demand for weeks 1 through 19 and calculates errors between actual and forecasted demand.

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Rejoanul Islam
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66 views8 pages

MSC 301 Assignment 2 (ID-16204037)

The document discusses using a linear trend method to forecast demand over 19 weeks, finding the trend line equation to be Y=3.5X + 46.64 based on actual past demand data. It then uses this equation to forecast demand for weeks 1 through 19 and calculates errors between actual and forecasted demand.

Uploaded by

Rejoanul Islam
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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BRAC UNIVERSITY

Assignment 2
Course Code: MSC301

Course Title:

Production-Operations Management

Section:02
Date of Submission: 25 Auguht 2020

Submitted To:

Hasan Maksud Chowdhury

BRAC Business School

Submitted BY:

ID Name
16204037 Rejoanul Islam
Answer to the question: no: 12
A)

Week Day sales Moving Total Centered Moving Indes


Average Sales/MA3
1 Fri 149
Sat 250 188.33 1.3275 (Sat)
Sun 166 565 190.00 0.8737
2 Fri 154 570 191.67 0.8035
Sat 255 575 190.33 1.3398 (Sat)
Sun 162 571 189.67 0.8541
3 Fri 152 569 191.33 0.7944
Sat 260 574 194.33 1.3379 (Sat)
Sun 171 583 193.67 0.8829
4 Fri 150 581 196.33 0.7640
Sat 268 589 197.00 1.3604 (Sat)
Sun 173 591 200.00 0.8650
5 Fri 159 600 201.67 0.7884
Sat 273 605 202.67 1.3470 (Sat)
Sun 176 608 204.00 0.8627
6 Fri 163 612 205.00 0.7951
Sat 276 615 207.33 1.3312 (Sat)
Sun 183 622

Seasonal Relatives:
:

Fri = 0.79;

Sat = 1.34;

Sun = 0.87

Sum of seasonal Relatives = (0.79+1.34+0.87) = 3.00


B)
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total Avg.
Friday 149 154 152 150 159 163 927 154.5
Saturday 250 255 260 208 273 276 1987 263.67
Sunday 166 162 171 173 176 183 1031 171.83
Avg. 196.67

Seasonal Relatives,

Fri = 154/196.67 = 0.79

Sat = 263.67/196.67 = 1.34

Sun = 171.83/196.67 = 0.87

Sum of seasonal Relatives = (0.79+1.34+0.87) = 3.00

C) In this problem, the two methods provide similar result because there are only 3 season .Also
there is no trend in data.
Answer to the question: no: 16
A)

Using Linear trend formula:

(Actual Demand) XY X^2 Estimated forecast (A-F)


(Days) X Y

1 36 36 1 39.392 3.392
2 38 76 4 40.717 2.717
3 42 126 9 42.042 0.042
4 44 176 16 43.367 0.633
5 48 240 25 44.692 3.308
6 49 294 36 46.017 2.983
7 50 350 49 47.342 2.658
8 49 392 64 48.667 0.333

9 52 468 81 49.992 2.008


10 48 480 100 51.317 3.317

11 52 572 121 52.642 0.642


12 55 660 144 53.967 1.033
13 54 702 169 55.292 1.292
14 56 784 196 56.617 0.617

15 57 855 225 57.942 0.942

Total = 120 =730 =6211 =1240 =25.917

Now,

Y = mX+c

M = ∑X∑Y-n∑ y/∑( )^2-n(x^2) = 120*730-15*6211/12o^2-15*1240 =1.325

C = ∑y-m∑ /n =730-1.325*120/15 = 38.067

MAD = (A-F)/n = 25.917/15 = 1.7278

Forecast for 16 = 59.26


Range = 59.267± 1.7278 = 60.995 - 57.54

Forecast for 17= 60.592


Range =60.592± 1.7278 = 62.3198 - 58.8642
Answer to the question: no: 19

A) Simple average method:

Quartar Year1 Year2 Year3


1 11 14 17
2 20 23 26
3 29 32 35
4 38 41 44
Total 98 110 122
Simple average= 24.5 27.5 30.5
M&L Manufacturing

1. Potential Benefits are,


The potential benefit of a formalized method to forecasting is easy to understand the all
information.like,1. Quality of Information 2.Utilize the computer 3.Reduces uncertainty of the future.

2.
Week Actual Forecasting |A|=Ai-fi xy
1 50 50.14 0.14 50
2 54 53.64 0.36 108
3 57 57.14 0.14 171
4 60 60.64 0.64 240
5 64 64.14 0.14 320
6 67 67.64 0.64 402
7 71.5 71.14 0.34 500.5
8 76 74.64 1.36 608
9 79 78.14 0.86 711
10 82 81.64 0.36 820
11 85 85.14 0.14 935
12 87 88.64 0.64 1044
13 92 92.14 0.14 1196
14 26 95.64 0.36 1344
15 99.14
16 102.64
17 106.64
18 109.64
For the 7th week we take the avg. of 6th & 8th week
Here,
= 105
= 1020.5
= 8449.5
2
x = 1015
( )2 = 11025

M =
= 3.5
C =
= 46.64

the required equation for demand, = 3.5 +46.64 = 50.14


Year
1 = 50.14
2 = 53.64
3 = 57.14
4 = 60.64
5 = 64.14
6 = 67.64
7 = 71.14
8 = 74.64
9 = 78.14
10 = 81.64
11 = 85.14
12 = 88.64
13 = 92.14
14 = 95.64
16 = 99.14
17 = 102.64
18 = 106.14
19 = 109.64

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