Risk Management Plan
Risk Management Plan
Risk Management Plan
Plan
BI-10-00875
Relocate Jazan-Abha Refined Products Pipeline
Jazan-Abha Pipeline 2 (JAPL-2)
MM3/DD3/YY3
1 BI-10-00875 Project Risk Management Plan Saudi Aramco: Company General Use
Project Risk Management Plan
MM3/DD3/YY3
Prepared By:
Title Name Signature Date
PRM Consultant
Muhammad Mazhar AnwarUlHaq
Distribution:
Title Name
IPT Leader Rehman, Zia U & rehmanzu
Project Manager Najrani, Sami H & NAJRSH0C
Proponent Qurashi, Mosa M & quramm0f
PMOD PMD General Supervisor Faisal Mansour & MANSFI0A
Risk Manager Alajmi, Hassan A & alajmiha
FPD Planning Engineer Hamad, Maher A & HAMAMA0W
2 BI-10-00875 Project Risk Management Plan Saudi Aramco: Company General Use
1. High Level Project Description and Key
Objectives
What are high-level project objectives and deliverables?
The project objective is to sufficiently meet the Kingdom’s product demands of Ultra
Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD), Premium Gasoline 91 (PG-91), Premium Gasoline 95 (PG-
95) and Kerosene in Jazan, Abha and Najran regions
The main function of this package is to install new pipeline. The scope includes new
pipeline which will improve loss control and safety by abandoning the existing JAPL-
1 pipeline from Jazan Bulk Plant (JBP) to BS#1 including existing pipeline sections
for new upgrades downstream of BS#1 and BS#2, as well as reducing intercity
trucking through dedicating the existing JBP to cater only to Jazan city and nearby
villages along with the benefit of avoiding the utilization of SSSP-6 storage.
Pipeline scraper facilities for cleaning and instrument scraping will be installed at JZR
and BS#1. Due to space limitation, BS#2 will have typical dropout spool to receive
and launch the scraper at the same time.
Jazan Refinery:
Pipeline:
New 16” JAPL-2 pipeline, 91.4 KM (approx.) long, from JZR to BS#1
Three (3) new Valve stations for JAPL-2 pipeline
New upgrade sections of the existing 14” JAPL-1 pipeline to a higher wall
thickness, 10.1 KM (approx.) downstream of BS#1 and 1.6 KM (approx.)
downstream of BS#1.
Accommodation building
booster pumps (Use existing Pumps per DBSP Addendum)
Scraper Traps skids (BS#1)
Surge Relief Skids (BS#1)
Security system and facility upgrade
2. Project Justification
Why is the project being conducted? How does the project relate to and align with
the Saudi Aramco strategic objectives?
The average demands for refined products (ULSD, PG91, PG95, JetA1). In Jazan,
Abha, and Najran provinces are forecasted to increase from 108MBD in 2018 to 155
MBD in 2040.
NA
b. Project Uniqueness
What aspects of the project are unique or new to Saudi Aramco? And, are
there any concerns? And why?
Is this type of project a regular occurrence or one-off? And, are there any
concerns? And why?
No
c. Project Dependencies
List any concerns related to dependencies on other Saudi Aramco entities
(e.g. other projects, existing operations and other departments), and
explain why
This BI construct a 400 MBD refinery to process Arabian Heavy and Arabian
Medium crude oil to produce 52 MBD of regular gasoline 91, 28 MBD of
premium gasoline 95, 248 MBD of Ultra-low Sulfur Diesel, 93 MBD of
Vacuum Residue to be used as fuel for the adjacent Power Plant or Asphalt,
200 KTA of benzene, and 760 KTA of paraxylene. The refinery configuration
includes a 400 MBD crude/vacuum distillation unit, a 175 MBD diesel hydro
Provision of Stage 1 and Stage 2 security package. The package is still under
approval.
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
g. Major Milestones
Table 1.
PROJECT MILESTONE PLANNED ACTUAL
FEL 3 Dec 2017 Feb 2018
ERA Aug 2019 Aug 2019
Detail Design June 2020
ERC April 2023
List the key activities for all remaining phases which need to be done well
to ensure a successful project outcome, and outline any concerns (e.g.
schedule), and explain why
Design
‐ Finalization of Feed Verification Report findings.
‐ Provision of As Built Drawings of interface project.
‐ Reply of all technical queries.
Procurement
‐ Expedite the long lead items
Are there any milestones that have greater significance over others (e.g. are
there major merge points in the schedule)? Explain why
NA
List any logistical challenges related to accessing the project site, explaining
why
XXXX
List any considered technologies that have not been successfully used by
Saudi Aramco previously XXXX
List any technologies or modules considered by the project that were not
successfully tried yet as at least commercial pilots XXXX
j. Resources (NA)
Are there any concerns regarding expected future market conditions to
select qualified EPC contractors and/or licensors and acquire required
amounts of labor, materials and equipment? And why?
XXXX
Are there known projects that will directly compete for the same resources?
XXXX
What aspects of this project are not covered by the existing Saudi Aramco
standards and procedures?
XXXX
Are there any health, safety and security challenges that are not considered
manageable using the project’s existing controls? And why not?
XXXX
l. Environmental Issues
Are there any specific environmental challenges that are not considered
manageable using the project’s existing controls? And why not?
m. Project Constraints
List any constraints that have been identified that may impact the ability to
deliver the project (e.g., shutdown windows)? And why?
Are there any constraints that may possibly be removed during the project?
And why?
NA
‐ None
Are there any differences amongst key stakeholders that relate to the scope
definition? And why?
‐ None
List all overdue key decisions. Explain why they are overdue.
‐ Refer to TQ list
Have all the alternatives required for making the key decisions been
identified?
‐ To be made
‐ To be made
Does the project have sufficient information to make these decisions? If no,
what additional information is needed?
NA
What concerns, if any, does the project have about the reliability of the
information currently available to make these key decisions? And why? XXXX
Identify any major costs (not schedule-related e.g. major equipment and
bulk material costs) that have a significant measure of uncertainty
associated with them, and explain why.
XXXX
What further challenges are expected to confront the project that have not
been mentioned in the questions above?
XXXX
7. Risk Reviews
PRM is a continuous process, as a result, risk reviews are held not only during formal
desktop reviews or workshops (PRM events) mandated by SAEP-367. Risk reviews
should also be regularly undertaken (monthly) during the entire project life cycle.
Table 4 contains dates of PRM events according to:
SAEP-367 requirements
11 BI-10-00875 Project Risk Management Plan Saudi Aramco: Company General Use
8. Risk Reporting
Regular (monthly) PRM Reports will be prepared to represent current project risk
exposure. PRM Reports are also produced after each PRM event undertaken in
accordance with Table 4. Both Reports are prepared using ARM functionality.
RM Risk Manager Manages all PRM risk activities; responsible for PRM
process and tool’s implementation
RF Risk Facilitator Runs main PRM events and workshops (either PEOD/
PMOD member or consultant)
SME Subject Matter Expert Provides PRM support (all aspects) in area of
expertise
Table 6. PRM Responsibilities of IPT Members (See List of PRM Session Attendees)
IPTL/DM
RM
C (FPD)
C (Proponent)
C (Contractor)
RF
SME
Prepared By:
Title Name Signature Date
PRM Consultant Muhammad Mazhar AnwarUlHaq
Distribution:
Title Name
IPT Leader Rehman, Zia U & rehmanzu
Project Manager Najrani, Sami H & NAJRSH0C
Proponent Qurashi, Mosa M & quramm0f
PMOD PMD General Supervisor Faisal Mansour & MANSFI0A
Risk Manager Alajmi, Hassan A & alajmiha
FPD Planning Engineer Hamad, Maher A & HAMAMA0W
1. Summary
The Risk Heat Map opposite (Figure 1) shows the current number Figure 1:Risk Heat Map
of risks at each level of significance. Red, orange, yellow, and
Impact
green cells demonstrate critical, significant, important, and low
threats respectively. Opportunities are highlighted in the blue
Moderate
Very High
Very Low
cells.
High
Low
OPP
The overall project risk situation is Medium as:
Very High 0 0 00 01 21 11 00
Probability
Critical Threats = 1 and Significant Threats = 1; resulting in 2 High 00 00 00 00 00 00
critical/significant threats, which is considered Low.
Cost Risk is 0.38% which is considered Low. Moderate 0 0 00 21 11 00 00
Schedule risk is 2.50% which is considered Low.
Low 00 01 00 00 00 00
Average Risk Score is 14.70% which is considered Low.
Total (0) opportunity has been identified. Very Low 0 0 01 00 00 00 00
Opp: Is abbreviation of Opportunities.
Black font represents current. Gary font represents
expected risks, assuming the developed risk
Figure 2 outlines the forecasted trend analysis, including the effect of the opportunity identified, assuming that
the risk response plans which have been articulated are implemented effectively. Referring to the trend chart
below, the future risk situation is expected to not change and stays Low from Low.
Critical and significant risks is expected to Figure 2: Trend Analysis
reduce from 2 to 2 (Low)
Cost risk is expected to reduce from 0.38%
(Low) to 0. 37% (Low)
Previous 0.08%
Cost
Schedule risk is expected to reduce from 2.5% Now 0.38%
(Low) to 1.49% (Low) Expected 0.37%
Average Risk Score is expected to reduce from
Previous 0.45%
Factor Schedule
15% (Low) to 13% (Low)
The risk response actions are shown in Table 4 Now 2.50%
which indicates 16 actions are proposed to Expected 1.49%
manage the project’s risks.
Previous 2.20%
Threat
Now 14.70%
Expected 13.45%
First
Phase Risk Title Pre‐Response Post‐Response
Impacted
13647 Limited accessibility to job
CONST. 75% x ($1.5MM + 30 days) 75% x ($1.5MM + 15 days)
site
Critical risks in red text & Significant risks in Orange text
4. Recommendations
a. Prioritization of Risk Responses
Issues arising from unaddressed risks are current problems and obviously
need to be dealt with first.
Risks are potential issues and should next be addressed. Risks are
prioritized based on severity and proximity as mentioned below.
o First Order Risk Prioritization (Severity) - Risks are ordered based on
severity. Potential showstoppers are considered as risks with the
highest severity level.
o Second Order Risk Prioritization (Proximity) – Risks with closer
proximity are considered higher priority.
Concerns watch list should be given the least priority
5. Management Activities
a. Monitoring & Control
i. Risk Manager
The Risk Manager (Hassan Al Ajmi) is responsible for arranging regular risk
reviews with the project management, and for preparing all risk reports.
He will also be responsible for the necessary monthly updates of the Risk
Register in ARM.
ii. Risk Reviews
Risk Management Plan and Status Reports should be living documents
and regularly reviewed, to reflect the current and expected project risk
Next review dates at critical points for each risk are also mentioned in
Table 4. These review dates allow special focus to be placed on the
progress and effectiveness of the actions associated with specific risks,
to facilitate amendments to the risk response plans if necessary.
b. Training
PRM training is recommended as follows:
PMT107 – Risk Fundamentals (1 day) for Risk Owners and Action Owners.
Number of critical risks. A low project risk is where the number of critical/significant risks is
below four. High project risk is where the number of critical/significant risks is eight or more.
Cumulative Schedule risk. This is calculated by adding the individual schedule risks end-to-end.
In a real project much of the schedule risk appears in parallel, so this value is a qualitative
indicator only. The cumulative schedule risk is considered low if it is below 16% of the project
schedule and high if it is 24% or more.
Cost risk. This is the accumulated cost risk for the project. Cost risk is considered low if it is
below 4% and high if it is above 6% or more of project value.
Average Risk Score. This is a qualitative assessment of the level of risk in the project. It is the
average risk severity/score. A value below 16 is considered low risk and a value of 24 or more is
considered high risk. The maximum value of 100 occurs when all risks have a very high impact
on the project and a very high probability of occurring.
Red Flags. A Red Flag is a risk outside the scope of management of the project and for which no
effective response plans have been identified.
Orange Flags. Orange Flags are risks within the scope of management of the project but where
insufficient risk response plans have been identified for the management of the risk.
Overall risk rating. This is a calculation based on the above four risk indicators.
Expected. The expected risk position is the risk position that should result if all risk response
plans are adopted and they are effective, based on the current expectations of the project.
Many risk response plans take time to become effective so the expected risk situation may not
reached within the next reporting period.
Pipeline Lack of drainage system, Pipeline washout due to Re work, damage of line
pipe and trenches
13657 washout heavy rain at BS-1 and
upstream
Unavailability DOB are not in PP package, Unavailability of As-Built Delay in completion of Detail
Old drawings not As-Built, Design
of Dwgs & Drawings and
13661 Dwgs not available in Iplant
Docs (Issue) Documents (Process
BOD)
13662 - SWCC
AlAjmi,
pipeline interference Active 100 100
Hassan
(Issue)
13647 - Limited
AlAjmi,
accessibility to job Active 70 70
Hassan
site
13661 -
AlAjmi,
Unavailability of Active 70 53
Hassan
Dwgs & Docs (Issue)
Generate inspection
18017 - Inspection AlAjmi, schedule for the tested and
Active 31 Jul 2022
Schedule Hassan accepted pipelines segments
until commissioning
Notes for Table 4 This table compares the risks from the current desktop review or workshop to the
expected risk position if all the existing risk actions are effective.
Each risk is given a severity score depending on where it falls on the Heat Map.
1. Early screening of
potential LSTK
2. Selection of pioneer in
mountain scope
3. Work quality assurance.
7002 - Mr. Falah LSTK
Otaibi, Misfer Closed 4. Joint visit along the 15 Jun 2017
selection actions
pipeline rout during the
bidding stage.
5. Have IPT backup.
6. Design review workshops
LSTK and SA stakeholders
AL Faeem,
6494 - LUP approval Closed 0 0
Mohammad
13 BI-10-00875 Project Risk Management Status Report Saudi Aramco: Company General Use
Action ID - Title Owner Status Due
1. Continuous follow up
2. Utilize T&I schedule
3. prioritize the shutdown
Alnemer, requirement to be done
7006 - Mutliple actions Closed 12 Feb 2017
Ahmed early.
4. Commitment from
operation management
(Proponent)
Detailed constructability/
QRA workshop need to be
7007 - Constructability
Akhtar, Imran Completed arranged between all parties 31 Dec 2015
session
including LPD, CSD and
Proponent
14 BI-10-00875 Project Risk Management Status ReportSaudi Aramco: Company General Use
PARTICIPANTS
Attach the attendance sheet with signatures