Bloomberg Central Banks

Q1 2018
Special Report
Central
Banks
Your 2018 Outlook
Here’s what’s ahead for the world’s biggest central banks.
Plus, forecasts of rates and economies p 12
Bastion of Technocracy China, China, China It’s Scorecard Time Here, Lie on This Couch
Welcome to the elite Let’s talk about what Who’s the world’s best Lacking purpose? Feeling
private club of the world’s happens the year after the central bank forecaster? impotent? Enter central
central bankers p 28 PBOC’s big year p 26 (And who’s the worst?) p 5 bank psychiatry p 2
Contents
Senior Executive Editor for

B LO OM BE RG Bloomberg Economics
MA R K E TS SPEC IA L REPORT Stephanie Flanders
Q1 20 18 Executive Editor, Bloomberg
Economics
Simon Kennedy
Chief Economist, Bloomberg
Economics
Michael McDonough
Editor, Bloomberg Markets
Joel Weber
Special Reports Editor
Siobhan Wagner
Art Directors
Lee H. Wilson, Josef Reyes
Graphics Editor
Mark Glassman
2 Photo Editor
Donna Cohen
Your Psychiatrist Will See You Bloomberg Markets utilizes the resources
Now, Mr. Central Banker of Bloomberg News, Bloomberg Television,
Bloomberg Businessweek, Bloomberg
A visit to Dr. Honoris Causa reveals all Intelligence, and Bloomberg LP.
5
Editor-in-Chief
John Micklethwait
Forecasting, Reviewed Deputy Editor-in-Chief

Reto Gregori
Which central bank is the
Economics Managing Editors
most accurate? Brendan Murray, Craig Stirling,
Malcolm Scott, and Vivianne
8 26 Rodrigues
Senior Economists
What to Talk About Holding In a Sneeze Carl Riccadonna, Jamie Murray,
When You Talk About Brexit China is trying to ward off the sniffles and Tom Orlik
New flows functionality as it enters 2018. Its plan to curtail Creative Director
Robert Vargas
lets you see which U.K. stocks its massive buildup of credit will have
Photo Director
foreigners are holding ramifications for the world economy Clinton Cargill
Managing Editor
11 28 Kristin Powers
Copy Chief
What Does a New Fed Head The Little-Known Club at the Lourdes Valeriano
Mean for Rate Increases? Heart of the Financial World Copy Editors
The Fed Spectrometer allows you The Bank for International Brennen Wysong, Mark Leydorf
to monitor the history and tone of public Settlements remains a bastion of Production Associate
comments from individual members global technocracy—even in an age of Loly Chan
of the Federal Open Market Committee increasing transparency and growing
Head of U.S. Financial Sales
disillusionment with elites Michael Dukmejian /
12 212 617-2653
2018 Central Bank Outlook 30 Head of EMEA Sales

Viktoria Degtar / 44 20 3525-4026
Here’s what you should know It’s Trump’s Fed Now Head of APAC Sales
about the world’s most important The president’s remaking of the Mark Froude / 65 6499-2818
central banks Board of Governors is stripping it of Production/Operations
decades of institutional experience Debra Foley, Dan Leach,
24 Carol Nelson, Steven DiSalvo,

Bernie Schraml
A Plan Starts to Come Together 32 Global Chief Commercial Officer

Andrew Benett / 212 617-8225
Not since before the creation of Cheat Sheet Global Chief Revenue Officer
Europe’s monetary union have growth Consider these functions Keith A. Grossman / 212 617-3192
rates for northern and southern on the Bloomberg terminal your
members been as close as they are now central bank toolkit [email protected]
Forward Guidance
Your Psychiatrist
Will See You Now,
Mr. Central Banker
By RICH MILLER
I L L U S T R AT I O N B Y PAT R I C K L E G E R
2 BLOO M BERG M A R K ETS S PECIA L R EPO RT

GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK (GCB) checks there are the pointy heads who want me DHC: Why do you insist on taking
the hallway for pesky reporters, sees to adopt a price-level target—or even everything on yourself? Isn’t there some
none, and slips into the finely furnished worse, a nominal GDP target. Yeah, just body who could help you?
office of Dr. Honoris Causa (DHC), try explaining that to Representative Max GCB: Who? My brother, FSB [Fiscal
noted psychiatrist to the troubled rich ine Waters. Sometimes, I just want to Stimulus Brigade]? He’s too busy getting
and famous. chuck it all and go back to academia, where his jollies cutting taxes. Great timing, that.
GCB: Thanks for seeing me, Doctor. everything is so P.C. Look, I’m not asking for much. All I want is
Frankly, I’m not sure why I’m here. I should DHC: Politically correct? for things to get back to normal, to get back
be jumping for joy. For the first time in years, GCB: No, no. Phillips curve. You know, to what they used to be before Larry Sum
everything is in sync. Growth is up every you push unemployment down, wages start mers started yapping about secular stag
where. But I can’t stop feeling anxious. Ever to rise, and—voila!—inflation goes up. If only nation. Sometimes I wish he’d just shut up.
since I was a little boy growing up in Chicago, it was so easy. DHC: Well, somebody loves you. The
it was drummed into me that the one thing DHC: Is that what’s really bothering stock market is exuberant. I should know.
I was really good for was controlling inflation. you? I just sold some Facebook shares and
It’s always and everywhere a monetary phe GCB: (Breaks down and starts cry- bought my third Porsche.
nomenon, as Uncle Milton never tired of ing.) Nobody loves me anymore! I used to GCB: Yeah, yeah, you’re all alpha
telling me. But no matter what I do, I just can’t be the maestro. They’d ask my opinion on dogs as long as I’m pouring in liquidity. Wait
seem to get it up. I’ve even gone a bit uncon everything from oil drilling to capital gains. until you see what happens when I start
ventional and bought buckets of bonds. But Now the Republicans hate me. The Ger taking it away.
all that’s done is end up tying my balance mans hate me. Even the Japanese, who DHC: Wait a minute. You’re not think
sheet in knots and leaving my hair with more are willing to put up with almost anything, ing of doing that, are you? I’ve got my eye
shades of gray. Inflation is still soft. got up in arms when interest rates went on this Aston Martin.
DHC: That doesn’t sound good. negative. Everybody seems to be Fed up. GCB: Well, you know, the party
GCB: It’s even worse than that. There’s even talk of taking away my cher seems to be getting a bit out of hand. Maybe
Nobody thinks I can get prices up. I’m ished independence. And I dread an early it’s time to take away the punch bowl.
depressed. Inflation expectations are morning tweet exposing me as a fake. DHC: Get out, get out of my office!
depressed. It’s a vicious cycle. Don’t they realize I saved the world from What’s the matter with you? Just because
DHC: Did you try opening up and another Great Depression? Do they think you’re all boo-hoo-hoo doesn’t mean that
talking about it more? that was easy? other people can’t be happy. No wonder
GCB: Talking about it more? I give DHC: I’m sure it will get better. they call economics the dismal science.
hundreds of speeches a year, everywhere GCB: Get better? It’s only going to Maybe we should let a lawyer run the cen
from the Rotary Club in Cleveland to Chat get worse. The next recession comes, and tral bank.
ham House in London. It just seems to end they’re all going to realize I’m just one big As GCB slinks out of DHC’s office, he
up confusing everybody, including myself. fat zero. suffers one more indignity: The good doc-
DHC: What do your colleagues say DHC: Zero? tor’s assistant asks him to pay for the ses-
you should do? GCB: Yeah, you know, the zero lower sion in bitcoin. Then GCB spots someone in
G C B: Som e s ay I should stop bound. I’ve got this tool, and it’s useless. the anteroom he used to kibitz with but now
obsessing, adopt a target range for infla Short-term interest rates can’t go much steers clear of. It’s just another sad sack
tion—say, 1 percent to 2 percent—declare below zero. And everybody is going to nobody loves anymore, seeking DHC’s help:
victory, and let Jeff Bezos have his way. know it. I could go cutesy and do some Macro Hedge Fund.
I’m not so sure about that. Others say I more QE. But then they’d just blame me
should double down and raise the target. for distorting financial markets and Miller covers the Federal Reserve for
Jeez, I can’t even hit the one I’ve got. Then worsening income inequality. I just can’t win. Bloomberg News in Washington.
Q 1 20 18 3
PORT<GO>
Surveillance
Bloomberg has ranked the biggest central banks on the accuracy of their outlooks
By LUCY MEAKIN, DAVID GOODMAN and ANDRE TARTAR
Which
central bank
is the most
accurate
forecaster?
5
NO CENTRAL BANK IS PERFECT, but for forecasting its key 1.3 percentage points. Since then, it’s gone the other way, with
metric, the Bank of England is at the bottom of the pile. The an overshoot of about 1.1 percentage points.
three-century-old institution has the worst record for Forecasting is a critical concern for central bank credibility,
predicting inflation in its home economy, according to the because it provides the basis for monetary policy decisions that
latest Bloomberg ranking of Group of Seven central banks. The affect the companies and households of the real economy. At
Bank of Canada has the best. the BOE, Governor Mark Carney and his fellow policymakers
Unlike its major peers, including the European Central have just raised their benchmark interest rate for the first time in
Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve, the BOE tends to more than a decade, citing the outlook for inflation.
undershoot on its consumer price forecasts, though that Projections that don’t come to pass are one more stick to
seems to be changing. Its prediction for inflation two years use to beat central banks and the unelected technocrats who
ahead was lower than the eventual outcome in each of the run them. Monetary institutions have come under increased fire
eight years through 2013, with an average undershoot of since the financial crisis for measures like quantitative easing
ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECAST ACCURACY
Year-over-year change in GDP from 2006-16 in central bank’s home area Bank’s forecast, one year earlier
◼ Overestimated growth ◼ Underestimated growth
Bank of England Federal Reserve Bank of Canada European Central Bank Bank of Japan
4%
-4
Sources: Central bank projections, national statistics agencies, Bloomberg calculations

and negative interest rates that some say have fueled inequality. has repeatedly been castigated by some British lawmakers and
To compile its results, Bloomberg looked at inflation media for being too downbeat on the nation’s prospects
projections two years ahead and gross domestic product before and after 2016’s vote to leave the European Union.
estimates one year ahead, and compared them with annual Andy Haldane, the BOE’s chief economist, said in 2017 it
results from 2006-16. The overall score reflects a Taylor Rule was a “fair cop” that the bank—in common with almost all
approach that gives equal weight to growth and inflation. mainstream forecasters—expected a sharper slowdown than
On the overall measure, the Fed ranked first, despite the U.K. has seen since the Brexit decision. He also said his
being too bullish on growth for 10 of 11 years of the study, while profession has a lot of work to do if it’s to recover from its failure
the Bank of Japan was last. to predict the global financial crisis and its aftermath.
On estimates for economic growth alone, the BOE shot
to the top of the rankings even though it, too, has been Meakin, Goodman, and Tartar cover economics for Bloomberg News.
consistently overly optimistic. That’s ironic, given that Carney With assistance from Catherine Bosley and Zoe Schneeweiss.
INFLATION FORECAST ACCURACY
Year-over-year change in benchmark price index* from 2006-16 in central bank’s home area Bank’s forecast, two years earlier
◼ Overestimated change in prices ◼ Underestimated change in prices
Bank of Canada Federal Reserve European Central Bank Bank of Japan Bank of England
4%
-4
*December values used for all banks except the Bank of Japan (March); Sources: Central bank projections, national statistics agencies, Bloomberg calculations
Q 1 20 18 7
Flows
What to Talk About

When You Talk About Brexit
By OWEN MINDE and STEPHEN JONATHAN
FLOWS CAN PROVIDE powerful insights into economic and market erminated Deals, you’ll see that the deals completed that Octo-
T
trends. Both long-term foreign direct investment and shorter-term ber were generally announced before the vote.
portfolio flows can be viewed as the business and investing com- Change the periodicity in the top right to quarterly, and you’ll
munities’ judgment on policymakers’ economic and regulatory see that the announced deal volume hasn’t fallen off a cliff since
decisions. Buying a stake in a company or shares of an the referendum. M&A deals involving U.K. companies continue to
exchange-traded fund, for instance, could imply a vote of confidence. be announced. That’s a bullish indicator for the U.K. economy and
For insights into long- and short-term capital flows, you can the British pound. The chart in the top-right corner displays the
use a couple of Bloomberg data analytics, which cover both geographical breakdown of the origin of the investment: In the
cross-border M&A activity and portfolio flows. third quarter of 2017, 65 percent of total investment in the U.K.
came from North America. To drill down further into the specific
THE U.K.’S JUNE 2016 Brexit vote provides a perfect case study in deals themselves, click on the magnifying glass icon next to North
how an unexpected political outcome can have a significant impact America, which will take you into the {MA <GO>} function. To see
on perceptions by the global investor community. As Brexit nears all the deals in the third quarter ranked by announced total value,
its expected implementation of March 2019, one of the biggest sort the Deal List section accordingly; click into any deal to see
fears is that multinational companies will no longer see the U.K. its details.
as a gateway to Europe and may prefer to invest on the
Continent  instead. SHORT-TERM CAPITAL FLOWS are a focus of both investors and
Start by running {FLMA <GO>} for the Cross Border Mergers regulators. Investors focus on trends in fixed-income, equity, or
and Acquisitions function. Select the United Kingdom in the top left alternative portfolio flows to understand sentiment by the larger
amber box and change the Position to Inward. That shows in a investor community, while regulators are increasingly looking to
selected period, such as last month, the total foreign direct monitor those flows to get real-time data regarding trends that
investment—that is, M&A transactions in which buyers are acquiring could affect local markets.
stakes in the U.K., as reported by either the company or the adviser. To analyze trends in cross-border capital flows and changes
The chart at the bottom displays a history of these flows. It in investor holdings, check out Bloomberg’s Flow of Fund Portfo-
may be surprising to see the spike in inward investment in Octo- lio at {FOFP <GO>}. The function displays Bloomberg’s in-house
ber 2016, after the vote to exit the European Union. However, that holdings database, which is updated on a quarterly basis, along
October data point reflects deals that happened to be completed with monthly estimates between official quarterly releases.
that month. If you use the radio button in the upper left part of Select United Kingdom in the top left. Use the radio button to
the screen to select Announced Deals and uncheck Include select Flow. To see investment flows into the U.K., change the Financial
8 < G O> I NS I D E THE TE RMI NA L

To track foreign direct investment flows, go to {FLMA <GO>}.
To switch the view

to Announced Deals,
The volume of click here and you
completed deals can see that a lot of
spiked, surprisingly, the deals that closed
in October 2016, in October 2016
after the Brexit vote. were announced
before the vote.
To track trends in cross-border portfolio investment flows, run {FOFP <GO>}.
Flows from China

turned positive
in the second quarter
after seven quarters
of outflows.
For a history of flows
from China into
and out of U.K. bonds,
click here.
Position to Liabilities (money coming into the U.K. to buy assets, of you can now see the breakdown of the stock of equity investment
course, creates a liability from the perspective of the country). Next, in the U.K. in the Portfolio & Risk Analytics (PORT) function. Close
to see investment in U.K. bonds from abroad, select Debt as the In- the History window. Use the radio button to select Stock rather than
dicator. FOFP shows that the biggest inflow from the second quarter Flow. Change the indicator to Equity. The table at the bottom right
to the end of September came from China: $2.2 billion. of the FOFP screen shows the total U.K. market value: $3.6 trillion
Now, click on the red China bar to chart the history of this as of late October. Of that, Bloomberg had holdings data on 62 per-
flow. Interestingly, China started withdrawing its investment in cent of the market. What’s more, 45 percent of the total market was
U.K. bonds in the third quarter of 2015, shortly before the Brexit owned by foreigners: $1.6 trillion. U.S. investors were the largest
referendum was announced. China then continued to pull money holders of U.K. stocks, followed by Canadians and Norwegians.
out of U.K. bonds until the second quarter of 2017, when flows To display the entire portfolio of the world’s equity invest-
turned positive. ment in the U.K., click on the View in PORT button on the red tool-
Perhaps even more powerful in terms of current positioning, bar. Click on the Holdings tab, and you can see that the Global
<GO> I NS I D E THE TE RMI NA L 9

Click on the View in PORT button in FOFP to display the portfolio of
foreign holdings of U.K. stocks in PORT.
Click here for a list

of U.K. financial
companies held
by foreigners.
To track ETF flows, run {FFLO <GO>}.
For a map of flows,

click here.
To dig into data on

U.K. ETFs, click here.
Industry Classification Standard sector that has attracted the flows on a country or regional basis, run {FFLO <GO>}.
biggest share of the world’s investment into the U.K. is financials. To track ETF flows into and out of the U.K., use the drop-
To drill down into the individual names that foreign investors hold, down menu to the right of View to select Countries. Select Netflow
click on the plus sign to the left of financials and then sort by in the Show field. Net flow into U.K. ETFs has been $1.5 billion this
weighting. Among the companies with the most foreign ownership year through October, with inflows of $7.4 billion and outflows of
by value are HSBC Holdings, Prudential, and AON. This list of $5.9 billion.
foreign-held U.K. stocks could be a place to start examining a For a map of flows, click on the Map tab. For more detail on
company’s exposure to a hard Brexit scenario in which financial U.K. ETFs, click on United Kingdom. You can use the tabs to ana-
passport rights to do business in Europe are denied. lyze flows, performance, and liquidity.
THE FLOOD OF MONEY pouring into passive investments has led to Minde and Jonathan are FX and economics market
increased interest in real-time analysis of these flows. To view ETF specialists at Bloomberg in New York.
10 < G O> I NS I D E THE TE RMI NA L

Dots
What Does Powell as Head of

The Fed Mean for Rate Increases?
By MICHAEL McDONOUGH
Run {DOTS SPEC <GO>} to reveal where FOMC members think the Fed should set the target rate.
UNPRECEDENTED TURNOVER ON THE Federal Open Market Com- governor or regional Federal Reserve Bank president along a spec-
mittee, combined with the roster of new voting members, may trum spanning –2 (dovish) to +2 (hawkish) based on his or her pol-
indicate that policymakers will support a more aggressive approach icy inclination. (The rankings are the subjective assessment of the
to interest rate hikes in 2018. Bloomberg Economics team based solely upon public statements,
On the face of it, the selection of Jerome Powell as the next and they will be updated on an ad hoc basis.) Current rankings are
chair of the Federal Reserve Board largely signals continuity in the shown in the accompanying figures.
application of monetary policy from his predecessor, Janet Yellen, Based on a Bloomberg Economics analysis of the current
whose term ends in February, as well as Ben Bernanke before her. FOMC voters’ policy inclinations, the committee will have a more
Powell, a Fed governor since 2012, ascribes to a c
onventional hawkish average voter score of –0.1 this year, compared with –0.6
policy approach and has been a centrist on the FOMC. While not in 2017. Yellen’s departure shifts the scale further in a hawkish
a formally trained economist, he brings a wealth of private-sector direction (0.0).
expertise to the committee. This background may lead him to rely New York Fed President William Dudley announced he will
to a greater degree on Fed staff analysis. be retiring this year, too. Bloomberg Economics rates Dudley as a
Yet, new voting FOMC members are likely to take on a more –1 (moderate dove) on the Fed Spectrometer. The impact of his
hawkish tilt. The Bloomberg Economics Fed Spectrometer, which departure on the voting score will depend on who replaces him.
you can access on the Bloomberg terminal at {DOTS SPEC <GO>}, The Fed’s vice chair position also remains open.
is a tool for monitoring the history and tone of public comments
from individual FOMC members. McDonough is chief economist
As the title of the tool implies, it attempts to classify each for Bloomberg Economics in New York.
<GO> I NS I D E THE TE RMI NA L 11

Central
Banks 2018 Outlook
POWERED BY
BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS
The global economy just had a banner year. How will this one compare?
We’ll see a new cast of characters, for one—not only at the Federal Reserve,
but also at the People’s Bank of China and a few others. Here’s everything
else you should know about what’s going on at the world’s most important
central banks, from Brexit to China’s deleveraging campaign. For more
insights, go to {BI ECON <GO>} and {TOP ECO <GO>}.
12 BLOO M BERG M A R K ETS S PECIA L R EPO RT Q 1 20 18 13

Mexico Canada
2017 2018 2017 2018
GDP 2.0% 2.6% GDP 3.0% 2.0%
CPI, year over year 6.6 3.1 CPI, YoY 1.9 1.9
Unemployment 3.7 3.8 Unemployment 6.2 6.5
Policy rate 7.25 6.5 Policy rate 1.0 1.0
Source: Bloomberg economist forecast Source: Bloomberg economist forecast
Banxico’s Two-Front War: A Big Election After Some Quick Rate Hikes,
Looms Just as the Economy Slows The Bank of Canada Slows Down
BY NACHA CATTAN BY THEOPHILOS ARGITIS
New Governor Alejandro Díaz de After interest rates more than The Bank of Canada is in fine-tuning currency during that period. Investors
León will have to steer Banco de doubled to 7.25 percent, economists mode as it tries to boost historically began anticipating a Bank of Canada
Mexico through one of the most surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate low interest rates to more normal that would move faster on interest
contentious general elections in the another hike. levels without inadvertently rates than even the Federal Reserve.
nation’s history this July. At the same The rate increases have taken triggering another downturn. The Bank of Canada’s narrative
time, the country will need to revamp a toll on economic activity, says Governor Stephen Poloz and since September has been about
the accord that shaped its modern Capistrán, but he forecasts more colleagues estimate their so-called caution, literally. That word
economy: the North American Free increases ahead to keep inflation neutral rate is a full 2 percentage appeared nine times in Wilkins’s
Trade Agreement. anchored, even if the economy points above their current 1 percent November speech.
The risk that Nafta could be decelerates. Policymakers may have policy rate, and the G-7’s fastest- But while the change in tone has
scrapped sent the peso falling in to switch gears completely, however, growing economy in 2017 is quickly helped to stabilize the Canadian
2017 and helped trigger inflation if the U.S. scraps Nafta. running up against capacity. But after dollar, damage may have already
of more than double the bank’s The economy has been last year’s start to the tightening been done. The nation’s exports
3 percent target. Add uncertainty sputtering, even from its usual slow cycle jolted markets, all indications suffered through one of their biggest
over the future of Mexico’s economic rate; it decelerated in the third are that the plan is to move slowly. tumbles ever in recent months.
model—which has been called into quarter following two earthquakes, “Whether it’s about how One lesson from the episode:
question by leftist presidential and the central bank cut its growth aggressive or how cautious policy Being a first mover on normalization
front-runner Andrés Manuel López projection for 2018 to as low as should be—getting the dosage right can be costly. Which is why the
Obrador—and there’s the recipe for 1.8 percent from an already low demands sound judgment about Bank of Canada will be a lot more
greater volatility. 2.0 percent. complex trade-offs,” Bank of Canada comfortable acting more in sync with
“Mexico will face rough waters,” In one of his first interviews after Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn the Fed in 2018.
says Carlos Capistrán, Bank of being appointed, Díaz de León said the Wilkins said in a Nov. 15 speech in
America’s chief Mexico economist. central bank will be a factor of stability New York.
“Banxico needs to be ready to in the face of the 2018 elections. If anything, 2017 served as an
act quickly.” early warning for policymakers of
The central bank has already the dangers of moving too quickly.
raised borrowing costs more than Two rate hikes in quick succession—
any other nation in the Group of 20 in July and September—sent the
since December 2015, as spiking Canadian dollar soaring by as much as
gasoline prices and concern over U.S. 14 percent over a four-month period,
trade policies lifted inflation. the best performance of any major
OUR ECONOMISTS SAY ... OUR ECONOMISTS SAY ...
Mexico’s central bank expects inflation to fall in line with its A high-speed Canadian economy in the first half of 2017 caused
3 percent target and projects economic growth of 2 percent to the Bank of Canada to remove two “emergency cuts” it imple-
3 percent. The outlook implies that policymakers should loosen mented in 2015. That led some economists to believe it was the
monetary conditions after tightening them over the past two start of a more robust tightening cycle. But slowing growth—
years. But interest rates are unlikely to fall in the short term, sustaining Canada’s output gap into 2018—and uncertainties about
because the central bank sees risks from Mexico’s presidential ongoing Nafta negotiations will challenge policymakers’ abilities
PREVIOUS SPREAD: ALAMY (7)
elections, the renegotiation of Nafta, and changes in U.S. monetary to continue tightening. Increased household indebtedness also
policy. There’s also little room to accommodate negative surprises, makes the economy more sensitive to higher interest rates, which
given the currently high inflation. �Felipe Hernandez will challenge the central bank’s ability to normalize rates without
thwarting growth. �Michael McDonough

U.S. A New Chairman Takes the
Helm as the Crisis Era Fades
BY RICH MILLER
2017 2018
GDP 2.3% 2.6%
CPI, YoY 2.0 2.3
Unemployment 4.1 3.8
Policy rate 1.5 2.0
Source: Bloomberg economist forecast
Chair Jerome Powell has a

SO O N -TO - B E F E D E R A L R E S E RV E
Fed Hurtles Toward Rethink as Economy
Booms and Leaders Change little-known talent that few, if any, of his fellow monetary policy
BY JEANNA SMIALEK
makers probably possess: He’s able to repeat people’s sentences
to them—backward.
That’s not the only way Powell stands out from other central
For the Federal Reserve, 2018 will be a restrained workers’ abilities to
year of transition for both monetary demand wage increases. bankers. Unlike many of them, he’s a lawyer by training, not an
policy and the people setting it as Then comes the practical economist. His lack of a Ph.D. prompted some Fed watchers to
Jerome Powell becomes chairman. dilemma: Should the Fed continue to wonder whether he has what it takes to run an organization tasked
The fresh blood may see an hike rates gradually when joblessness
opportunity for the Fed to rethink is low and price gains are slow? with managing the world’s largest economy.
how it operates. Chair Janet Yellen Powell and his colleagues suggest It’s not the first time Powell has faced skepticism. When he
nursed the economy’s wounds after that they plan on staying the course. joined the Fed as a governor in 2012, some staffers were dubious
recession. Powell’s Fed may transform Finally, the Powell Fed will have to
into a more forward-looking body ponder its long-run policy playbook. he’d be able to keep up. Armed with a huge binder full of materials
seeking to sustain growth. If officials follow their expected path he’d lug to meetings, Powell won them over with his readiness to
One challenge for Powell of rate increases in 2018, they’ll be up dig deep into complexities.
is inflation regularly undershot above 2 percent by yearend. That’s
2 percent in 2017, even as joblessness near the 2.5 percent level that some Indeed, the 64-year-old—who goes by “Jay”—earned a rep-
dipped below pre-crisis levels. That of them expect to mark as their end utation inside the Fed as a pragmatic central banker with a good
suggests a new wrinkle in a long-held point in this hiking cycle. strategic sense. A team player, he never dissented from a monetary
relationship between the two. If officials conclude that rates are
Powell has options in interpreting poised to stay lower in this cycle than policy decision, preferring to keep any reservations he had on that
such a quirk. It may just be taking a in the past, the Fed will have to think front and in the regulatory arena private. He also took on
long time for low unemployment to about its toolkit for responding to a unglamorous-yet-essential tasks such as overseeing the financial
feed through to higher prices. Another crisis. Last time the Fed cut rates by
explanation is to disavow headline 5 percentage points. It will have much payments system.
inflation as a pivotal gauge of tightness less ammo this time around. His experience in official Washington dates back to Presi-
in the labor market after people dent George H.W. Bush’s Department of the Treasury, where he
dropped out of it in the recession.
The most worldview-altering helped avert a run on Salomon Brothers in 1991 after the invest-
interpretation, however, is that ment bank had been caught submitting phony bids at a govern-
the relationship has truly broken ment debt auction.
down. Labor markets are global, the
internet has neutralized companies’ Powell spent much of his career outside government in
pricing power, and robots have finance—first at investment bank Dillon Read & Co. and then at
private equity firm Carlyle Group, where he set up an industrial
unit. It helped make him a multimillionaire, with assets of as much
OUR ECONOMISTS SAY ... as $55 million, according to his 2016 financial disclosure form.
Married, with three children, Powell has a reputation as a
The Fed will plunge deeper into uncharted territory, with the bit of an athlete. At Carlyle, he was known to spend his lunch hour
balance-sheet unwind going full throttle as interest rates continue cycling, and he still regularly bikes the 8 miles to work at the Fed
to normalize. A platitude of central banking is that “monetary policy from his home in Chevy Chase, Md.
acts with a long and variable lag.” This variability is more mysterious He seems unfazed by the pressure awaiting him. Asked at
now, as Fed officials grapple with the dual levers of interest rates a Nov. 28 congressional hearing how he felt about becoming the
and quantitative tightening, which may result in currency appreci- world’s most important economic policymaker, the Washington
ation, the same way that QE resulted in dollar weakness. Despite native replied, “I feel fine about it.”
LEXEY SWALL/NY T/REDUX
the Fed’s removal of policy accommodation so far, financial con-

ditions continue to ease. Concerns about stability may motivate
some officials to pursue faster normalization, but policymakers
would be wise to use a light touch as the ramifications from tight-
ening intensify. �Carl Riccadonna and Yelena Shulyatyeva
Q 1 20 18 15
Brazil Turkey
2017 2018 2017 2018
GDP 1.0% 2.3% GDP 6.2% 4.0%
CPI, YoY 3.0 4.7 CPI, YoY 12.3 11.8
Source: Bloomberg economist forecast Source: Bloomberg economist forecast
Elections Will Test a Central Banker’s OUR ECONOMISTS SAY ...

Modest Success Story
BY RAYMOND COLITT Resisting political pressure to cut rates will be the main
hallenge for the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. Growth
c
After spearheading one of the ride, with candidates on opposite will slow as the fiscal stimulus fades, possibly intensifying the
world’s most aggressive easing ends of the political spectrum government’s criticism of tight monetary policy—which is exactly
cycles last year, Central Bank of leading voter intentions. The front- what’s needed. Downward pressure on the lira, from higher global
Brazil chief Ilan Goldfajn faces the runner, leftist former President Luiz
task of keeping the country’s Inácio Lula da Silva, has pledged bond yields and continued above-target inflation, means there’s
benchmark interest rate at a record to reverse many of the measures no room to loosen. Further hikes are likely. �Ziad Daoud
low throughout 2018. President Michel Temer has taken to
Markets are betting that he’ll do rein in public spending and improve
it even in the year of a presidential the business environment.
election, which could spook Already, interest rate futures
investors. Three out of the past four show investors pricing in at least
election campaigns have initiated 450 basis points in key rate increases
a tightening cycle as incumbents beginning in September 2018, on the
loosened purse strings. eve of the election.
Goldfajn has worked hard to The best that Goldfajn can do in
re-establish the bank’s credibility, such an uncertain environment, says
Saudi Arabia
battered by seven consecutive years former Central Bank of Brazil chief
of missed inflation targets. So far his Gustavo Franco, is to wait and see.
reassurances are working, allowing
the bank’s board to cut interest rates
to a record low without prompting
price expectations to veer off track.
The MIT-trained economist won 2017 2018
over investors not only by following
prudent rate policies, but also by GDP –0.5% 1.4%
tackling long-standing distortions
that reduced price pressures and CPI, YoY –0.2 4.1
enhanced the effectiveness of
monetary policy.
Still, the election in October Policy rate 1.5 2.0
threatens to be a particularly wild
OUR ECONOMISTS SAY ... OUR ECONOMISTS SAY ...
The major challenge for Brazil’s central bank will be to maintain The Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority is at the mercy of the
the base rate at 7 percent. The economy could face two major government’s policies. The currency peg to the U.S. dollar will
price shocks in 2018: one, the persistent fiscal (primary) deficit force the central bank to follow the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes
of 2.5 percent to 3 percent of GDP; and two, the likely devaluation in 2018, while fiscal deficits and potential capital flight after the
of the Brazilian real because of uncertainty stemming from t he recent corruption crackdown may drain reserves further. Without
presidential election. These price shocks could take inflation a change of course, the erosion of international reserves could
close to 5 percent, above the 4.5 percent center of the target threaten the peg in the next few years. �Ziad Daoud
range, and drive the central bank to raise interest rates to
8.5 percent. �Marco Maciel

China A Legend Prepares to Ride
Into the Sunset, Leaving
2017 2018 Risks in His Wake
GDP 6.8% 6.3% BY BLOOMBERG NEWS
CPI, YoY 1.5 1.5
Policy rate 4.35 4.35
CHINA IS CONTEMPLATING LIFE after Zhou Xiaochuan. The PBOC

The People’s Bank of China
Walks the Deleveraging Tightrope governor—who served under four premiers and outlasted three
BY BLOOMBERG NEWS
Federal Reserve chiefs—signaled in October that he’ll retire “soon.”
Over his 15 years in charge, Zhou helped open China to the
world and steered it through the financial crisis. He overhauled its
The People’s Bank of China heads into and macro-prudential rules.
2018 needing to repeat the feat it So though market borrowing monetary policy tools and unpegged the yuan from the dollar. And
pulled off in 2017—slowing the buildup costs will likely be guided he did all that while operating within the confines of a communist
of debt and reducing financial risks incrementally higher in 2018, the system where the State Council of the People’s Republic of China
without derailing the economy. benchmark one-year lending rate
It won’t be easy, and it may have is unlikely to budge, Orlik says. The calls the shots, leaving Zhou without the independence of his
to be done without Governor Zhou median estimate of economists global peers.
Xiaochuan, who’s hinted he will retire surveyed by Bloomberg sees the rate After studying engineering, he held various government and
from the central bank after 15 years at 4.35 percent through 2018.
at the helm. Inflation is estimated to edge up bank positions through the 1980s and ’90s, rising through the
The PBOC’s policy toolkit is likely to 2.2 percent in 2018, according to ranks under Premier Zhu Rongji and building a reputation as a
to turn again to the tried-and-tested the Bloomberg survey, beneath the reformist. As chairman of the nation’s securities regulator from
formula used in 2017, according to government’s usual 3 percent ceiling.
Tom Orlik, chief Asia economist at China’s debt-to-output ratio 2000 to 2002, Zhou controversially brought in foreign regulators
Bloomberg Economics in Beijing. is nonetheless poised to continue to add expertise. It was Zhu who groomed the “liberal reformer”
Unwilling to allow growth to slip much rising. It’s forecast to reach Zhou to head the central bank, according to a 2013 book, The Rise
below 6.5 percent, policymakers will 279 percent at the end of 2018 and
lean more on regulatory tools than 327 percent in 2022, putting China of the People’s Bank of China, by Stephen Bell and Hui Feng.
monetary tightening to curb debt and among the world’s most indebted Since taking the PBOC’s reins in December 2002, Zhou has
financial overheating, he says. countries, estimates Bloomberg pushed a reform agenda. He eliminated the lower limit on lending
So-called macro-prudential Economics. That trajectory reduces
policies, which seek to prevent the chances China can in the longer rates offered by the nation’s financial institutions and then abol-
financial shocks from damaging run avoid a financial crisis. ished a cap on what banks could pay on deposits. His quest for a
economies, have gained importance market-based interest rate system dates to at least 1993, when
in China and been expanded to cover
more sectors. The twice-a-decade he described using rates as “indirect” tools of economic control.
National Financial Work Conference President Xi Jinping kept Zhou in the job in 2013 even though
hosted by President Xi Jinping in he’d passed the typical retirement age of 65. Zhou was then
July officially announced that the
PBOC’s policy framework should appointed as a vice chairman of the country’s top political advisory
have two pillars: monetary policy body, giving him added clout.
Not that there haven’t been setbacks. Some of Zhou’s lib-
eralization goals have recently taken a back seat to the need to
OUR ECONOMISTS SAY ... ensure stability. Foreign exchange controls were tightened to stem
an exodus of capital, and authorities kept a tight rein on the yuan.
A new policy direction and most likely a new governor add up to “Governor Zhou can already claim to be China’s Paul Volcker—
a significant challenge for the PBOC. Under Zhou, China’s central quelling the risk of inflation—and China’s Ben Bernanke—holding
bank has quietly assembled the tools required to manage an enor- the line against the great financial crisis,” says Bloomberg Eco-
mous credit bubble. Balance-sheet reviews are punishing banks nomics’ Tom Orlik. “The question is whether he will also turn out
that paint outside the lines, sweeping regulations are meant to to be China’s Alan Greenspan—presiding over the expansion of a
ANDREW HARRER/BLOOMBERG
tame shadow lenders, and the door to foreign ownership has been major bubble, which bursts on the next governor’s watch.”
kicked open—a first step to greater efficiency. Even so, with debt
at about 259 percent of GDP, whoever takes over after Zhou in the
top job will find that deflating a bubble is harder than pumping one
up. �Tom Orlik and Fielding Chen
Q 1 20 18 17
India Switzerland
2017 2018 2017 2018
GDP 6.6% 7.5% GDP 0.9% 1.8%
CPI, YoY 3.5 3.5 CPI, YoY 0.8 0.7
Policy rate 6.0 5.5 Unemployment 3.1 3.1
2017 reflects data for fiscal 2018, ending March 2018. Source: Bloomberg economist forecast Policy rate –0.75 –0.75
Source: Bloomberg consensus forecast
Nursing the Economy Holding Steady, Unless Demand

With an Eye on Inflation For the Franc Rises
BY ANIRBAN NAG BY CATHERINE BOSLEY
India’s central bank glides into 2018 Inflation outside of food and The Swiss National Bank hopes a to the franc. The SNB might have to
in neutral, as the economy recovers energy prices is expected to remain weak franc allows for smooth sailing. intervene again—and foreign
from botched government reforms stubbornly above the 4 percent The currency softened against the exchange reserves are already more
and inflation quickens. medium-term target due to rising euro in 2017, aiding exporters, who than 700 billion francs ($716 billion).
The Reserve Bank of India last demand for household goods and already had a tailwind from the euro In the meantime, the SNB is
cut its benchmark rate in August, services, as well as pay increases zone’s momentum, and feeding a expected to stick with its deposit rate
to 6 percent. Economic growth was for millions of government workers domestic-demand revival. The of minus 0.75 percent (the lowest of
slowing, because of uncertainty that will boost their scope to spend. government forecasts the strongest major central banks) until 2019. It’s
generated by a new consumption tax Elevated crude oil prices could economic growth since 2014, when an using the charge on sight deposits to
and the withdrawal of 86 percent of also fuel inflation, given that India exchange rate cap limited the franc’s maintain an interest rate differential
currency in circulation. is a major importer, while rising strength. Inflation remains weak, with the euro area, making franc-
The outlook for private vegetable prices could keep the cost though; renewed geopolitical tensions denominated assets less attractive.
investment has thoroughly improved of food high. could lead risk-averse investors back
after a plan to recapitalize state- The RBI will also need to keep
run banks. Headline inflation is a keen eye on the U.S. and other
approaching the central bank’s countries as they begin to withdraw
Sweden
4 percent medium-term target. stimulus. India has managed to lure
Inflationary fears have capital with its yield advantage,
proved unfounded in the past, but that erodes with each Federal
and the government’s reform Reserve interest rate increase,
efforts—together with a recent shrinking the RBI’s room to move.
sovereign upgrade by Moody’s
Investors Service—have created 2017 2018
an environment conducive for
accelerating growth, according GDP 3.1% 2.4%
to Abhishek Gupta of Bloomberg
Economics. Yet according to CPI, YoY 1.6 1.6
the median estimate from a
Bloomberg survey of economists,
the benchmark repurchase rate will
Source: International Monetary Fund
remain unchanged in 2018.
OUR ECONOMISTS SAY ... Shifting Gears, From Quantitative Easing

To Increasing Rates
In 2017 a hawkish Reserve Bank of India overdelivered on its BY JONAS BERGMAN
inflation mandate and impeded growth. In 2018, with inflation poised
to remain benign, the RBI will have to do a better job of managing The Riksbank is certain to take a slow retain a market presence. That plan,
the trade-off. Bloomberg Economics expects the RBI to commence approach to tightening monetary of course, depends on inflation
a fresh round of rate cuts in June, by which time inflation is likely policy in 2018, Governor Stefan staying near its 2 percent target—
Ingves emphasized at his last rate where it’s hovering precariously—and
to undershoot the 4 percent target. Combined with the boost from meeting of 2017 in December. the krona remaining weak even as the
other reforms, growth should revive just in time for the 2019 elec- Policymakers in Stockholm on European Central Bank continues
tions, allowing Prime Minister Narendra Modi to again campaign on Dec. 20 called an end to almost three with its asset purchases.
years of quantitative easing and
a platform of growth and jobs. �Abhishek Gupta suggested a first interest rate
increase will likely come around
August 2018. The bank will reinvest
proceeds from its bond portfolio to

Euro Zone Mr.‘Whatever It Takes’
Keeps Giving It All He’s Got
BY ALESSANDRO SPECIALE
2017 2018
GDP 2.3% 2.1%
CPI, YoY 1.4 1.4
Policy rate 0.0 0.0
MARIO DRAGHI MADE his name with three words, but his legacy
Quantitative Easing End in Sight
Now That the Funk Is Over hangs on just two letters.
BY PIOTR SKOLIMOWSKI AND CAROLYNN LOOK
The European Central Bank president’s “whatever it takes”
speech in 2012 stemmed a sovereign debt crisis that threatened
the survival of the euro. Two and a half years later, he swatted
Three years after it launched elections in 2017, Italy goes to
quantitative easing to jolt the the polls in March and the Brexit aside German opposition to start the bond-buying strategy known
euro area economy out of a funk, the negotiations trudge on. as quantitative easing.
European Central Bank could find The ECB’s 25-member Governing The full effect of the €2.5 trillion program won’t be known
2018 is the year it stops expanding Council has plenty of tools available
its balance sheet and starts thinking to ensure the healing process until after he steps down in October 2019, but the 70-year-old
about raising interest rates. The continues, but it does need to work Italian claims that it dispelled the threat of deflation and ignited
19-nation bloc is looking much out how best to communicate. The an economic boom.
sturdier, with synchronized economic year is likely to see decisions over
growth and declining unemployment. forward guidance, which the central Draghi made his mark as an activist ECB chief early on by cutting
President Mario Draghi and his bank currently uses to manage interest rates at his first meeting, in November 2011, barely a week
colleagues will halve monthly asset expectations over the path of policy. into the job, as the single currency started its plunge into crisis.
purchases to €30 billion ($36 billion) As the end of ultra-loose policy
in 2018 and will soon decide if the gradually comes into sight, Draghi Previously head of Italy’s central bank, he got a Ph.D. from
latest extension of QE, to September, and his colleagues can be expected MIT under the supervision of two future Nobel Prize winners, had
will be the last. The process will be to keep reminding everyone that the a successful civil-service career, and did a stint in the private
gradual. Bond holdings will surpass state of the economy would be vastly
€2.5 trillion, providing plenty of different if it hadn’t been for ECB sector, at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
stimulus even when they stop stimulus. That’s aimed at countering Draghi’s famous speech came in 2012, when he added some
growing, and rates will stay low until the long-standing criticism from carefully chosen words to prepared remarks: “The ECB is ready
well after that. some nations, notably Germany,
The chief reason for dovishness that its policies have robbed savers, to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it
even in the face of economic boosted asset prices, and supported will be enough.” Backed shortly afterward by a plan to buy the debt
strength is that the ECB is far indebted governments. of stressed nations, those comments stopped investors in their
from being able to say “mission
accomplished.” Inflation remains tracks. The spread between borrowing costs for the strongest
below its goal of just under 2 percent, and weakest economies collapsed. Draghi’s threatened policy
and wages are stubbornly weak. tool, Outright Monetary Transactions, was never deployed.
Political shocks are also still
possible. After populist political That habit of making last-minute additions to speeches—to
parties gained support in national the frustration of some of his colleagues—was a hallmark of
Draghi’s fight to introduce QE. In August 2014, just two months
after cutting a key ECB interest rate below zero, he unexpectedly
OUR ECONOMISTS SAY ... warned that the threat of deflation was becoming dangerously
real. QE was announced the following January.
Strong growth will make the ECB’s job d ifficult in 2018. The Just two months later, the ECB became a lightning rod for
pledge to buy bonds until inflation shows a sustained pickup will public discontent. As Draghi inaugurated the ECB’s new €1.3 billion
test the patience of hawks on the Governing Council. Still, cost headquarters in Frankfurt, protesters rioted outside.
pressure will take time to reflect improved conditions in the labor Now euro-area economic growth is the strongest in a decade,
DANIEL ROLAND/AFP/GET T Y IMAGES
market, and this makes another small extension of the asset- yet inflation remains elusive. The final test of Draghi’s tenure may
purchase program likely. �Maxime Sbaihi and David Powell be whether he can avoid becoming the only ECB chief so far to
never raise interest rates.
Q 1 20 18 19
South Korea South Africa
2017 2018 2017 2018
GDP 3.1% 3.0% GDP 0.9% 1.2%
CPI, YoY 1.8 2.1 CPI, YoY 4.7 5.4
Source: Bloomberg consensus forecast Source: Bloomberg economist forecast
A Leadership Handoff Approaches OUR ECONOMISTS SAY …

Amid Gradual Tightening
BY JIYEUN LEE The South African Reserve Bank will continue to tussle with
inflation expectations. Even though growth will be meek and unem-
After kicking off Asia’s interest rate “carefully” after closely monitoring ployment high, rates could still be kept at 6.75 percent. The key
tightening cycle, the Bank of Korea is economic growth and inflation trends, risk to inflation stems from the possible exclusion of South Africa
expected to keep hiking rates in 2018, he said in November. One reason for from the World Government Bond Index. That could prompt a
but at a moderate pace. In an effort to the softly-softly approach is that
curb growth in household debt and inflationary pressures are limited now. slump in the rand and a jump in import costs. �Mark Bohlund
prevent financial imbalances, the bank Another is the increased firepower of
raised rates 25 basis points in tightening given the level of household
November, from a record low to indebtedness. Lee also happens to be
1.5 percent. Governor Lee Ju-yeol has on his way out. His four-year term
suggested the BOK is unlikely to move ends in March; a new chief will be
aggressively in 2018. It wants to keep appointed by the president.
monetary policy accommodative and
make any additional adjustments
Russia New Zealand

2017 2018 2017 2018
GDP 1.7% 1.9% GDP 3.5% 3.0%
CPI, YoY 2.6 5.2 CPI, YoY 2.2 2.0
Policy rate 7.75 7.5 Source: IMF
OUR ECONOMISTS SAY … An Incoming Governor Inherits a Sagging

Economy and Weak Inflation
The Bank of Russia needs to anchor inflation expectations to BY MATTHEW BROCKETT
its target without stifling the economy—no easy task. If wage growth
proves especially swift, rates may stay higher for longer. The As New Zealand’s economy loses Governor Adrian Orr, who takes over
expansion is already sluggish, and a harder fight with inflation could momentum, investors are lowering in March, will also have to contend
cause it to stall. �Scott Johnson their bets that the country’s central with reforms at the central bank
bank will raise interest rates from a planned by the new government.
record low in 2018. They now see a These include the introduction
72 percent chance of a hike by sometime in 2018 of a Fed-style dual
yearend, down from 100 percent in mandate to maximize employment
November, according to current and stabilize prices.
implied probabilities. The Reserve
Bank of New Zealand itself forecasts
no change until mid-2019, citing a
weak inflation outlook. Incoming

U.K. In Interesting Times,
Carney Becomes the Brexit
2017 2018 Shock Absorber
GDP 1.8% 1.4% BY JILL WARD
CPI, YoY 3.0 2.2
Policy rate 0.5 0.5
MARK CARNEY CELEBRATES five years at the Bank of England in

What’s That Cloud Hanging Over
The Economy? Oh, Right: Brexit 2018, and no one can say it hasn’t been interesting.
BY DAVID GOODMAN AND ANOOJA DEBNATH
Carney’s original mission when he arrived from the Bank of
Canada was to modernize the three-century-old institution.
Instead, his focus has become safeguarding growth through a
After increasing interest rates for the deputy governor for monetary policy,
first time in a decade, Bank of England the economic effects are “certainly too turbulent Brexit, while doing what he can to protect Britain’s
officials are in no rush to make their complex to justify the simple assertion finance industry.
next move. that Brexit necessarily implies low In the year and a half since the EU referendum, the 52-year-
The rhetoric of policymakers interest rates.” Officials claim they
before and since November’s rate have the right tools for either scenario old has restarted bond purchases and both cut and raised inter-
shift has been littered with references and pledge to be “nimble.” est rates.
to a limited and gradual upward path The banking sector isn’t quite Amid the drama, Carney tried a more upfront style of com-
for borrowing costs. With varying sure what to make of the signals.
degrees of explicitness, they’ve While one rate hike late in the year is munication. He was already set apart from his predecessors as
largely endorsed an outlook of two broadly priced in by investors, some the first foreigner to run the venerable Old Lady of Threadneedle
more increases in the next three years bank economists are predicting wildly Street. He introduced forward guidance and used it—with varying
to lift the key rate to just 1 percent. different paths in 2018. JPMorgan
The wild card is Brexit. Chase & Co. says there will be as degrees of success—to manage interest rate expectations.
The uncertainty surrounding the many as two hikes, while Capital It’s proved a difficult tool. Messages needed to be finessed
terms of the nation’s departure from Economics Ltd. expects three. on several occasions when the economy didn’t perform as
the European Union is weighing not Bloomberg Economics forecasts
only on economic growth but also none at all. expected. That’s earned him a nickname: the unreliable boyfriend.
on potential output as investment is Carney has reorganized the bank, adding deputy governors,
delayed. That could mean a huffing- fusing departments, and integrating policy functions. He’s been
and-puffing economy that’s squeezed
even at a lower rate of expansion. a much more public figure than his predecessors, running the
Amid such doubt, Governor Mark London Marathon for charity, attending music festivals, and involv-
Carney and colleagues are preparing ing himself heavily in climate change initiatives.
for a move in either direction—just in
case—which gives them the wriggle The backdrop has been anything but simple. When he took
room to respond if the negotiations over, the U.K. was the fastest-growing Group of Seven nation. But
deliver a better-than-expected then politics got in the way. It’s now the slowest.
outcome or collapse and leave the
U.K. adrift without a deal. Two general elections were big enough challenges, but there
According to Ben Broadbent, the also was the referendum on Scottish independence and, of course,
Brexit. The 2016 bombshell forced Carney to unleash the first
loosening of monetary policy in four years.
OUR ECONOMISTS SAY … The vote also tanked the pound, putting the BOE in a vise
between accelerating inflation and weaker economic expansion.
Whether Brexit is hard or soft, the Bank of England’s real At the time, Carney’s warnings put a target on his back as Brexit
s truggle will be in communicating its strategy. If negotiations go backers chided him for meddling in politics.
well, it must explain why it plans to raise rates even as inflation While the bank’s gloomiest predictions didn’t come to pass,
wanes and growth is slow. If talks collapse, the smooth transition the economy has lost momentum as well as some potential growth.
envisaged by policymakers will be in tatters, and the bank may That prompted the first rate hike in a decade on concern the
need to reverse its latest rate hike. Speaking candidly about this economy could overheat, even expanding at a weaker pace than
ERIC TSCHAEN/REA/REDUX
scenario would help investors plan for and possibly prevent the in the past.
worst market gyrations. �Dan Hanson The former Goldman Sachs banker is due to leave the BOE
in June 2019. He extended his time to help with an “orderly tran-
sition” out of the EU. For now, he says he can’t predict how Brexit
will hit the economy next.
Q 1 20 18 21
Indonesia Australia
2017 2018 2017 2018
GDP 5.0% 5.4% GDP 2.3% 2.9%
CPI, YoY 3.4 4.0 CPI, YoY 1.8 2.4
Source: Bloomberg economist forecast Source : Bloomberg economist forecast
Juggling Growth and Stability While Contending Is It 2018—or 2000? This Economy
With a Potential Leadership Change Will Make You Wonder
BY MICHELLE JAMRISKO BY MICHAEL HEATH
Bank Indonesia is expected to inch higher,” especially with the The Reserve Bank of Australia could be The RBA is trying to make a
continue navigating a puzzle of central bank’s reduction in reserve forgiven for wondering what year it is. virtue of its steady hand, arguing
disappointing economic growth and requirements planned for the second As its peers in developed that it provides a degree of certainty
market vulnerabilities in 2018, all the half of 2018, says Tamara Henderson countries gather steam, and for households and businesses.
while bracing itself for a possible of Bloomberg Economics. technological change reshapes Governor Philip Lowe has resisted
change in leadership. She sees Bank Indonesia holding industries, Australia is lagging, reviving chasing inflation with ever lower rates.
After eight interest rate cuts the reverse repo rate constant this memories of the “Old Economy” tag Instead, he’s highlighted risks from
since the start of 2016, policymakers year, with inflation slightly above the from the start of the millennium. excessive borrowing, looser lending
switched to neutral in October. 3.5 percent target midpoint due in The country’s stock market is a standards, and surging asset prices.
Economists expect they’ll remain large part to oil prices. tech-free zone, high immigration is Australian central bankers aren’t
there through 2018, with the seven- Bank Indonesia may also need to propping up economic growth, inflation “inflation nutters,” Lowe has said.
day reverse repurchase rate staying contend with a leadership change. is below target, wages are flat, and He’s argued there’s no need to rush
at 4.25 percent. Governor Agus Martowardojo’s consumers are tapped out. The rare inflation’s return to its target of
A potential complication: the five-year term ends in May, though a bright spot? Commodity exports. 2 percent to 3 percent, particularly if
Fed’s monetary tightening, which one-term extension is possible. In another redux of the early that might come at the expense of
could prompt currency weakness as Agus, a former finance minister, 2000s, Australia’s yield advantage financial stability.
emerging-market assets lose their has raised the bank’s profile by is set to disappear as the U.S. rate
preferred status. enhancing communication with the climbs above the RBA’s. The last time
A critical factor in spurring market. That’s been critical amid the that happened, the Australian dollar
demand would be an uptick in eight rate cuts undertaken since the ended up slumping below 50 U.S.
loans, which have been lackluster. start of 2016. cents. Commodity prices are stronger
Commercial banks’ lending rates these days, keeping the currency well
have been slow to keep pace with the above those levels.
central bank’s cuts, Senior Deputy A 5 percent move in the Aussie
Governor Mirza Adityaswara told has the same impact as a quarter-
Bloomberg in a November interview. point move in the RBA’s benchmark
Bank Indonesia has attempted to cash rate, according to Paul Bloxham,
spur loan and credit growth through chief economist for Australia at HSBC
macro-prudential measures by Holdings Plc, who previously worked
relaxing bank reserve requirements. at the central bank.
“Growth should progressively
OUR ECONOMISTS SAY ... OUR ECONOMISTS SAY …
Bank Indonesia’s biggest challenge will be achieving liftoff for The Reserve Bank of Australia will wrestle with its robust dollar.
domestic demand. Since 2015 the bank has cut rates, improved Growth should strengthen as investment picks up, especially when
monetary transmission, and loosened lending rules—yet con- the mining sector finds its footing. That could lead to a rally in the
sumption and investment have failed to ignite. A turning point currency as traders anticipate rate hikes. For jobs and wages, that
could come in 2018. Credit growth should be less constrained by would bring stiffer headwinds—increasing the strain on stretched
bad loans, and banks will have more funds to lend when reserve household balance sheets. �Tamara Henderson
requirements are relaxed in the second half. �Tamara Henderson

Japan A Monetary Maverick
Considers His Next Act
BY BRETT MILLER
2017 2018
GDP 1.7% 0.9%
CPI, YoY 0.5 0.9
Policy rate (overnight/10Y) -0.1/0 0/0.25
HARUHIKO KURODA ARRIVED on the monetary policy scene with a

The World’s Most Daring
Monetary Experiment, Continued bang when he took over the Bank of Japan in 2013. Radically
BY BRETT MILLER
increasing monetary stimulus, he transformed the central bank
from an i nstitution often criticized for doing too little into one that
scared some for doing too much.
After five years of unprecedented unlikely to shift borrowing costs far
stimulus from the Bank of Japan, the from zero. A lot has changed since Kuroda, now 73, became governor,
economy is enjoying its longest run “Current conditions aren’t but his policies remain as important and controversial as ever. Sup-
of uninterrupted growth in almost ripe for a withdrawal of stimulus,” porters point to an economy in its longest growth spurt since 2001—
17 years, the stock market is buoyant, says Yuki Masujima of Bloomberg
and unemployment is the lowest in Economics. “Further out, conditions one that’s even showing signs of a pickup in inflation, however
a generation. could fall into place for the BOJ to meager. Detractors point to the BOJ’s balance sheet, which has
The trouble, according to BOJ adjust its yield-curve settings.” swelled to almost the same size as the nation’s gross domestic
Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, is a Adding to the drama, central bank
“deflationary mindset” that’s taken watchers are waiting to see if Abe will product and enabled the government to keep racking up debt.
hold of consumers and businesses. break with convention and reappoint Then there’s Kuroda’s uneasy relationship with investors.
After decades of economic malaise, Kuroda to a second term before his Buyers of Japanese stocks could hardly be happier with their gains
the Japanese seem more comfortable contract ends in April. Most observers
with flat or falling prices. in Tokyo think that’s likely. in recent years, but the bond market is reeling from his purchases
Consumer price gains are still While Kuroda or his successor is of government debt securities.
less than half the 2 percent target. tipped to keep the current framework The key question for 2018 is whether Prime Minister Shinzo
So the BOJ continues to purchase in place, speculation is increasing
massive amounts of Japanese that the BOJ could raise its long-term Abe will break with convention and reappoint Kuroda, whom he
government bonds—so much that interest rate—the target of zero handpicked to spearhead efforts to reflate the economy. A major-
the central bank’s balance sheet percent that it set for 10-year bond ity of experts, including Yuki Masujima of Bloomberg Economics,
has become almost as large as the yields. The bank also may slow some
nation’s $4.8 trillion economy. of its bond purchases. expect Abe to keep the governor in place for another five years.
This is entrenching a divide This would make him the longest-serving Japanese central bank
between the BOJ and its peers that’s governor of the postwar era.
only going to get wider in 2018 as
the Fed and European Central Bank “Kuroda has done a good job leading a large and complicated
winnow their reserves. organization, while avoiding too much intervention into monetary
The gap in interest rates will policy by the government,” Masujima says. “Flexibility character-
probably grow. Any tweaking of
the short- or long-term rates the izes his style. When shock-and-awe lost its punch, Kuroda shifted
BOJ uses to manage bond yields is to incremental easing before adopting yield-curve targeting.”
Kuroda’s keen understanding of financial markets and how
they affect the real economy goes back to his days at the Ministry
OUR ECONOMISTS SAY … of Finance. He rose to become the nation’s top foreign exchange
official at the ministry during a period when Japan often intervened
The Bank of Japan needs more room to maneuver. Inflation to address strength in the yen.
far below its 2 percent target presents an argument for staying He may be the only central banker to go so far as invoking
the course. But its ballooning balance sheet means risks are Peter Pan, once comparing the task of fostering inflation expec-
growing. The biggest challenge will be crafting an exit strategy tations to the magical boy’s efforts to fly: The moment you doubt
without sinking prospects for reflation. Getting the right balance yourself, you can no longer do it.
ANDREW HARRER/BLOOMBERG
could require more flexibility. A government declaration that

deflation has been vanquished could give the central bank a
window to steepen the yield curve, relieving strain on the finan-
cial system while maintaining stimulus. The end of Kuroda’s term
in April adds near-term uncertainty. �Yuki Masujima
Q 1 20 18 23
Synchronicity
This merging of fortunes means that, for now at least, exis-
tential questions about the euro zone can be put on hold. For the
economic region to survive in the long run, though, convergence
needs to deepen and spread long after European Central Bank
Mario Draghi is right: In Europe, the fortunes of President Mario Draghi pulls the plug on the easy money policies
that helped turn things around.
rich and poor countries are converging “Countries have converged a lot, at least in terms of growth
By ALESSANDRO SPECIALE rates,” Draghi told a panel including Federal Reserve Chair Janet
Yellen and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney in Frankfurt
in November. “Probably the most important thing for a monetary
union is convergence.”
Evidence that euro economies are no longer drifting apart
is important because big divergences in Spain, Portugal, Ireland,
Greece, and Cyprus took the monetary project to the brink
of collapse.
It also helps reinforce the French and German push for closer
political coordination to foster unity as the U.K. prepares to leave
the European Union and as the rise of nationalist parties poses a
threat to deeper integration. Not to mention how much easier it
would make Draghi’s job—pushing one monetary policy on
19 countries of varying size, wealth, and strength has been messy.
The data suggest the progress isn’t going to unravel as soon
as the ECB winds down its €2.6 trillion ($3.1 trillion) asset
purchase program. For one, euro area economies are less reliant
on exports for growth than they were a decade ago, making them
less susceptible to external shocks. By driving down interest rates
on bank loans, the ECB encouraged a broad revival in services
and manufacturing. Falling unemployment is bolstering domes-
tic demand.
AFTER A DECADE OF CRISES almost broke apart the euro area, the
bloc’s economies have emerged on more common ground CYCLICAL RECOVERY CONTINUES
than ever. Euro zone GDP growth rate, year over year
Not since before the creation of the monetary union in 1999 ◼ Trend ◼ Cyclical Actual
have growth rates across the more prosperous Northern and
Forecast 6%
weaker Southern European states been as close as they are. Even
measurements of worker productivity are more in sync than they
were before the global financial crisis.
3
GROWING, CLOSER
Standard deviation of gross added value* growth rates in the euro zone
Across countries Across sectors
0
6
The dispersion of
economic growth
rates among
European nations is
close to a 20-year low. –3
3
1Q 1998 4Q 2021 –6
Source: Bloomberg Economics
Investors are picking up on the growing synchronization.

Faster growth and a narrower budget deficit in Portugal, for
instance, drove down the premium investors demand to own the
2Q 1997 2Q 2017 0 country’s 10-year bonds over Germany’s to a 2 ½-year low.
*A way of calculating GDP that excludes taxes but includes subsidies on products
But to move toward the kind of prosperity promised when
Source: European Central Bank the currency union was first conceived requires more than

c onformity in growth rates. The economy’s productivity is also That requires initiatives from national governments to open
crucial because it bolsters economic resilience and ultimately up the labor market and increase competition in the economy.
creates the conditions for salaries to rise. Here, too, Bloomberg In Italy, in particular, the risk is that progress gets set back by
Economics data show an improvement taking root compared elections this year in which anti-establishment parties are poised
with the union’s first years and the aftermath of the global finan- to make major inroads.
cial crisis. For now, the gaps between richer and poorer euro nations
aren’t getting wider, which is encouraging for the viability of the
TREND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH CONVERGING
euro. The difference in real wages between most countries in the
Standard deviation of trend productivity growth rates in the euro zone bloc has actually been narrowing.
5
PAY GAP SHRINKING
Change in inflation-adjusted wages since 1999
4 Germany France Netherlands Greece Spain Italy
3
Precrisis average
2 10%
1Q 1998 3Q 2017 0
Source: Bloomberg Economics
“Ultimately what matters for improving living standards

0
is the trend of productivity growth, and here we do find some
evidence of convergence,” says Jamie Murray, a European econ-
omist for Bloomberg Economics in London. “Partly that reflects
slower productivity gains in Northern Europe. But it is also
because Southern Europe has done better.”
Murray’s projections show productivity gains will continue
across the four biggest euro zone economies, but weaker members
such as Italy and Spain need to advance even faster to catch up with –10
Germany and France if genuine convergence is to become a reality.
PRODUCTIVITY LEVEL GAP STILL WIDENING Euro area salaries

Change in trend productivity since 1Q 1998 have stopped
Germany France Spain Italy diverging and in some
cases are narrowing.
Forecast The glaring exception:
60% Greece, where
austerity measures –20
and a shrinking
economy have
weighed on pay.
40
1999 2015 –30

20 Sources: International Labor Organization, Bloomberg calculations
While ECB stimulus brought the monetary union back

from the brink, the onus is on governments to “catch up,” accord-
0
ing to Guntram Wolff, director at the Brussels-based think tank
Bruegel. “This will require something that the central bank can’t
do—reforms at the national level and stronger safety nets in the
euro area to repair long-term confidence,” he says.
1Q 1998 4Q 2021 –20

Speciale is an ECB and euro area economy reporter in Frankfurt.
Source: Bloomberg Economics With assistance from Anooja Debnath.
Q 1 20 18 25
China Tries
To Fight Off
A Case of the
Sniffles
By KEVIN HAMLIN, ENDA CURRAN, and
CHRISTOPHER ANSTEY
I L L U S T R AT I O N B Y J O A N W O N G
IT USED TO BE that when America sneezed, the world economy Beijing. “It’s going to be an increasingly challenging balancing act.”
caught a cold. These days, it’s the risk of a sickly China that poses Given that China was forecast by the International Mone-
a bigger threat. tary Fund to contribute more than a third of global growth in
The world’s second-largest economy enters 2018 trying to 2017, how China deals with its debt matters far beyond its borders.
ward off the sniffles. While gross domestic product growth likely In terms of raw contribution to global demand, China’s credit
accelerated in 2017 for the first full year since 2010 and is advanc- expansion provided a bigger boost than quantitative easing,
ing at a pace that sees it double every decade, much of the expan- according to Tom Orlik of Bloomberg Economics. In the past
sion is being fueled by a massive buildup of credit. eight years alone, the country took on 141 trillion yuan ($21.7 tril-
Debt surged to 259 percent of output in 2016 and is on track lion) in debt, helping the world out of recession and underpinning
to reach 327 percent by 2022, reducing the country’s ability to everything from the consumption of Australian iron ore to Star-
avoid financial turmoil, according to Bloomberg Economics. bucks Corp. opening its biggest store in the world in Shanghai.
People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, who as If the economy stumbled now, it could end up being as much of
we went to press had only hinted he’s poised to retire from the a challenge for incoming Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
central bank, is already warning that China must be wary of a as for Zhou.
potential “Minsky moment,” a term used to describe a sudden “China’s policymakers—facing growing financial risks and
plunge in asset values following unsustainable gains or the exhaus- betting they’re in a self-sustaining recovery—are planning to
tion of credit. Such a threat leaves Zhou or his successor under tighten the credit taps,” Orlik says. “For China and the world, a
pressure when managing the PBOC, which left its key interest lot is riding on them getting that right.”
rate unchanged in 2017. President Xi Jinping has already put the PBOC on guard
“Too loose monetary policy will induce further bubbles and by announcing in July that it will play a bigger role defending
debt escalation whereas too much tightening runs the risk of trig- against risks and that financial security is part of national secu-
gering a financial crisis,” says Zhu Ning, deputy director of the rity. In December, Xi and China’s economic policymakers agreed
National Institute of Financial Research at Tsinghua University in to a three-year plan to “fight the battle of preventing and r esolving

major risks, with a focus on preventing and controlling financial To help encourage more efficient deployment of capital—
risks.” Their aim is to foster a “virtuous circle” between finance and to prevent continued funding of companies that are effec-
and the real economy, they said in a statement. The PBOC and tively insolvent—policymakers have begun to gradually take
other regulators have also acted to reduce risky lending between away implicit support. Complicating the ability to deal with the
banks, online financing, and shadow banking while ensuring the outlook is the immaturity of China’s monetary policy tools and
flow of credit to the real economy has continued. regulatory system in an economy that’s increasingly complex and
Cover is being provided by signs that the rest of the world market-oriented, according to Eswar Prasad, a former chief of
is enjoying its strongest period of growth since 2011. With Europe the IMF’s China division and now a professor at Cornell. Finan-
and the U.S. picking up, China can take stronger action to rein in cial innovation is getting ahead of regulatory expertise, and big
risky lending, knowing that international drivers of demand are financial institutions are increasing their presence and activities
in the best shape in years. in multiple financial markets, he says. Much may come down to
There are two tests for China’s credit clampdown. First is the art of communication, and there are signs that the central
wringing out bets on property prices. As Xi told the Communist bank wants to start better explaining its thinking to investors.
Party leadership in October, housing is for living in, not for spec- “The real decision-makers need to engage more with the
ulation. But recent data show that prices are still surging in many international community and markets,” says David Loevinger,
cities despite a raft of measures to make it harder for investors to a former China specialist at the U.S. Department of the Treasury
buy real estate with borrowed money. and now an analyst at TCW Group Inc. in Los Angeles.
The second key challenge is making progress in aligning “While China’s made a lot of progress, it needs to get past the
borrowing costs with borrowers’ ability to repay—rather than point where it sends out the barbarian handlers to deal with
with their relationship with the state. China’s financial system has foreigners while the real decision-makers pull strings from
long let state-owned companies or those seen to be implementing behind the curtain.”
state initiatives to get funding more cheaply than others on the
assumption the government will step in if needed to back them up. Hamlin, Curran, and Anstey cover economics for Bloomberg News.
Q 1 20 18 27
Welcome to the
reasury and a proponent of the “secular stagnation” theory,
T onetary policy require a nuanced understanding of international
m
who argues weak U.S. growth and inflation result from a per- developments,” Weidmann says. “The privacy of the meetings
sistent shortfall in demand. Summers describes the BIS as “an facilitates a frank and open exchange of views.”
important source of thinking on issues relating to financial sta- The organization hosts the Financial Stability Board and the
Elite Private Club

bility and economic performance,” while adding that he fre- Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, which hash out the rules
quently disagrees with its conclusions. He’s not alone in ques- that govern the international financial system. There’s also the
tioning the BIS’s stance. A 2016 review of the bank’s publications Global Economy Meeting and its sister forum, the Economic Con-
co-authored by Bean found the organization “doing a lot right” sultative Committee, dubbed “the world’s most exclusive club”
Of the World’s
on the research front but expressed reservations about the BIS by Adam LeBor, author of a book on the BIS. These latter two
“generating results to support the ‘house view.’ ” groups convene once every two months, on a Sunday, for formal
sessions followed by a dinner on a top floor of the BIS tower, which
CARUANA, WHOSE TENURE began during the dark days of the finan- has 360-degree views of Basel and the mountains. They seldom
cial crisis in April 2009, defended the BIS. “You may agree with open themselves to scrutiny from the press and the public.
Central Bankers
what we say or not, but I think there is a value to introducing these The clubby, shrouded nature of the organization and the
elements in the debate,” he told Bloomberg in November, referring committees it hosts contrasts with efforts at greater transparency
to the bank’s preference for taking a medium-term, global per- elsewhere. The European Central Bank bowed to public pressure
spective and highlighting financial stability risks. Research aside, in 2015 and began publishing the minutes of its meetings,
the BIS has grown in prominence in the years of monetary policy while the Federal Reserve started holding quarterly press con-
By CATHERINE BOSLEY and ALESSANDRO SPECIALE experimentation and banking regulation that have followed the ferences in 2011.
crisis. While some central banks made efforts to open up as their
P H OTO G R A P H BY S I M O N DAWSO N
increasing powers drew scrutiny from voters and governments, in AS FOR THE BIS , it has scrapped the press conference that used
Basel they’ve rowed back. Jens Weidmann, president of Germany’s to accompany the publication of its annual report, while the
Bundesbank and chairman of the BIS board of directors, says some- Global Economy Meeting discontinued press briefings follow-
times secrecy is necessary. “Informed decisions on domestic ing its bimonthly gatherings. Transcripts or minutes of the
meetings held in Basel aren’t made available; actions are relayed
THERE’S BEEN A CHANGING of the guard at the Bank for Interna- through press statements, if at all. That approach doesn’t sit
tional Settlements, the little-known organization that sits at the well with everyone.
heart of the world’s financial system. “You don’t know what were the discussions in the room,
Agustín Carstens, former head of Mexico’s central bank, or who got bullied into what,” says Sharon Bowles, former chair
succeeded Jaime Caruana as general manager on Dec. 1. He’s of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the Euro-
taking charge of an institution that stands out as a bastion of pean Parliament. “You get a fait accompli at the end.”
global technocracy in an age of increasing transparency and In his interview, Caruana insisted there’s a lot of commu-
growing disillusionment with elites. nication from the bank through papers and reports, and that
The BIS headquarters, which towers over Basel like a improvements have been made in transparency and account-
70-meter stack of copper coins, serves as a clubhouse for the ability. What’s more, he added, rules set by the Basel Commit-
world’s central bankers and financial rulemakers. The likes of tee must be enacted by national legislatures, making them
Mario Draghi, Janet Yellen, and Mark Carney routinely hold “subject to all the checks and balances.”
confidential gatherings there with colleagues from around the Carstens, 59, is a long-standing member of the global
globe. “Maybe if it didn’t exist you wouldn’t invent it now, but financial elite. He earned a doctorate in economics from the
it plays an important role in the central banking world,” says University of Chicago and served as finance minister before
Charlie Bean, former deputy governor of the Bank of England, taking up his role at the Bank of Mexico in 2010. In his new job,
who co-authored a report on the BIS’s research in 2016. “It’s he says he’ll focus on the BIS’s traditional role of facilitating
the glue that helps keep the fraternity together.” communication between central banks, while keeping a skep-
That hasn’t stopped the BIS, which was founded in 1930 tical eye on cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin. “An area where
and is owned by central banks, from challenging the economic the BIS will devote a lot of resources is to virtual assets, which
orthodoxy of its own members. By 2003, William White, then traditionally are called cryptocurrencies. But we don’t believe
economic adviser, and colleague Claudio Borio were pushing for that they are currencies,” Carstens says.
preemptive monetary tightening to avoid dangerous asset There’s little sign the institution will raise the curtain on
bubbles, a contrarian view that looked prescient later, during the secretive proceedings it hosts anytime soon. “There’s a sense
the financial crisis. It’s kept beating that drum even as central of exclusivity among the governors,” says Stefan Gerlach, who
bankers in the U.S., Europe, and Japan slashed interest rates to worked there for two stints between 1992 and 2007 and later
record lows and launched unprecedented bond-buying programs served as deputy governor of Ireland’s central bank. “They like
to fend off deflation. Borio, now head of the monetary and eco- to be in Basel and talk among colleagues.” —With assistance
nomic department at the BIS, argued in a September speech that from Eric Martin, Carlos Manuel Rodríguez, Zoe Schneeweiss,
central bankers may be underestimating the “generally benign” Jan Dahinten, and Donal Griffin
effects of globalization and technology on inflation and should
rethink their response to deflationary trends. He called out Larry Bosley covers economics from Zurich. Speciale covers
Carstens, the new general manager at the
Summers, former secretary of the U.S. Department of the Bank for International Settlements the ECB in Frankfurt.
28 BLOO M BERG M A R K ETS S PECIA L R EPO RT Q 1 20 18 29

It’s Trump’s Fed Now
By PETER COY and CHRISTOPHER CONDON
I L L U S T R AT I O N B Y G L U E K I T
IT TOOK PRESIDENT FRANKLIN D. ROOSEVELT a dozen years to turn Even if none of that happens, Trump’s remaking of the Board
over all the seats on the Federal Reserve’s governing board. Donald of Governors is stripping it of decades of institutional experience.
Trump is in a position to name five governors in just two years, Danske Bank A/S economists recently calculated that after Yellen
while elevating a sixth to the chairmanship. steps down in February, the governors will have just 10 years of
Markets are betting that Trump won’t seize on this chance collective board experience, the lowest number since Ronald
to reshape the nation’s central bank in his own defiant image. So Reagan’s second term in 1988.
far his picks have been mainstream, and he’s refrained from berat- The rapid turnover could unsettle markets that have become
ing the institution, which has been gradually raising interest rates accustomed to gradual, well-telegraphed changes of direction,
to keep the U.S. economy from overheating. says Diane Swonk, who runs an economic consulting firm,
Of course, Trump could get more provocative with his three DS Economics, in Chicago. Even the more seasoned Fed of 2013
remaining board nominations, particularly if he wants to placate managed to freak out investors around the world when a casual
the populist, anti-Fed wing of his own party. And if the Fed’s mention of a change in asset purchase plans caused what was
rate-raising campaign seems to be thwarting his efforts to make quickly dubbed a taper tantrum. “To assume the new people are
the economy grow faster, he could pivot against the Fed’s lead- going to learn from all their past mistakes when we’re in uncharted
ership the same way he went after Chair Janet Yellen during his territory is expecting too much from the institution, frankly,” says
run for the presidency. Swonk. “It could all be benign. But it may not be.”

A key indication that Trump is determined to put his stamp by the Wall Street Journal in December. Lawrence Lindsey, a Fed
on the Fed is that he chose not to reappoint Yellen, a Democrat, governor in the 1990s who later ran Bush’s National Economic
to another four-year term as chair. In contrast, Reagan kept Council, was first cited by CNBC. A centrist alternative would be
Paul Volcker as chairman for most of his time in office even Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at German insurance
though Volcker is a Democrat, and Bill Clinton stuck with Alan giant Allianz SE, who is a Bloomberg View columnist. Many other
Greenspan, a Republican. Trump told Fox News anchor Lou names are in the mix.
Dobbs in October, before announcing his decision on the chair- Trump also has an opportunity, albeit an indirect one, to
manship, that he liked Yellen, but added, “In one way, I have to reshape the leadership of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks.
say, you like to make your own mark.” The presidents of those banks sit with the board governors on
Trump the businessman does appear to understand the need the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, though only
for an independent central bank. So does Treasury Secretary Steven five of the presidents can cast a vote at any one time. In recent
Mnuchin, who’s a sounding board for Trump on the Fed. A board years the Board of Governors has exerted more influence over
choice that undermined investors’ confidence in U.S. monetary whom the regional Feds pick as president, through the vetting
policy could be disastrous for the president’s agenda. Trump process for candidates. This could eventually give Trump’s nom-
“realized that these appointments matter,” says Mark Gertler, a inees to the board—and, by extension, Trump—more say over
New York University economist. who heads the regional banks.
So far the president’s Fed picks have been considerably more Centralization of power at the Fed increases the risk of
centrist than his cabinet choices. Jerome Powell, who succeeds groupthink. That danger would be exacerbated if Trump contin-
Yellen as chair on Feb. 3, was a visiting scholar at the Bipartisan ues to lean away from Ph.D. economists in filling board openings.
Policy Center before joining the Fed board in 2012. He’s worked Academic economists aren’t always right, but they do tend to
as a Wall Street lawyer, investment banker, and Treasury Depart- research their positions deeply and defend them tenaciously. Only
ment official. Randal Quarles, the new vice chair for supervision, one of Trump’s choices, Goodfriend, fits that mold. And only two
is also a former Wall Streeter who put in time at Treasury. Both of the latest six regional bank president appointees have econom-
men were once partners at Carlyle Group, a private equity firm ics Ph.D.s. On Dec. 4 the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
with connections to both political parties. Marvin Goodfriend, named as president Thomas Barkin, a senior executive of the
who’s awaiting confirmation, is a respected monetary economist consulting firm McKinsey & Co. “You have to have professional
at Carnegie Mellon University with deep knowledge of the Fed. diversity, but we’re getting dangerously close to going too far away
The next choices will be crucial. If Trump wants to assuage from professional economists,” says Peter Conti-Brown, a Fed
Hill Republicans who feel the Fed’s interest rate decisions have historian at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.
been arbitrary and unreliable, he could name John Taylor of the With inflation and unemployment low and the stock
Hoover Institution as vice chair—assuming Taylor would take market hitting highs, everyone’s getting along fine. But will the
the job after having been passed over as chair. He’s the leading Fed stand up to Trump if it needs to raise rates more than he
advocate for managing interest rates according to a published wants? And if it does, how will he respond? That, says David
formula (known as the Taylor Rule). Rosenberg, the chief economist of Canadian wealth manager
Two Ph.D. economists who worked for President George Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc., “is the elephant in the room.”
W. Bush are also reported to be under consideration. Richard —With assistance from Craig Torres
Clarida, a Columbia University professor who’s a strategic adviser
to bond manager Pacific Investment Management Co., was cited Coy and Condon cover economics for Bloomberg News.
Q 1 20 18 31
Cheat Sheet
Your Central Bank Toolkit

By RICHARD MARQUIT and MICHAEL MCDONOUGH
CONTENT FEDERAL RESERVE

BI ECON Bloomberg Economics’ main data and analysis portal DOTS SPEC Monitor Federal Reserve Bank members’
provides a curated collection of global macroeconomic judgments as to the appropriate future target range for
and financial market data and forecasts, as well as U.S. interest rates. The Fed Spectrometer is Bloomberg
previews of key releases and events, topical in-depth Economics’ subjective assessment of Fed members’
insights, reactions, and country primers. policy inclinations based on public statements. It’s
expressed on a dovish-to-hawkish scale.
TOP ECO Read Bloomberg News articles about global economic
developments, monetary actions, and government and FED BAL A graphical depiction of the Federal Reserve’s balance-
private data releases. sheet components that can be configured by the user.
BI RATE Get analysis and insight on rate-moving developments DEBT See primary sovereign debt holders to identify their
from the Federal Reserve, Treasury, and other exposures to issuer liabilities. Visualize and rank
government agencies. primary holders of U.S. and non-U.S. debt to gain insight
into investor strategies and market direction.
BRIEF A collection of topical newsletters with economic
insight, news, and data from Bloomberg economists. FOMC A reference guide for Federal Open Market Committee
meetings, actions, and monetary policy leanings.
DATA/INDEXES/CHARTING
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECST A macroeconomic data repository organized by concept,
source, and transformation. Find data with browse or ECBB Provides Bloomberg-estimated Public Sector
search modes. Create and export custom views. Purchasing Program data for determining the amount
and scope of sovereign bonds expected to be released,
ECWB An advanced charting tool for analysis and comparison
purchased, and redeemed.
of macroeconomic and financial market data that
provides transformation, presentation, export, and WORLDWIDE
sharing capabilities in chart and tabular formats.
WIRP Track and analyze the probabilities of various interest
ECO Find market-moving, global economic data releases and rate level outcomes for 10 countries as implied by the
event calendars, with live updates, prerelease futures, options, and OIS markets. Current and
consensus estimates, alerts, and a news viewing panel. historical probabilities are presented in table and
chart formats.
FCON Monitor Bloomberg proprietary financial conditions
indexes for the U.S., euro area, the U.K., and Asia SRCH A sophisticated search and custom listing tool for
excluding Japan. These are leading indicators of government, municipal, and corporate bonds, loans,
economic activity and help assess credit cost structured notes, and preferred securities.
and availability.
CENB A comprehensive menu of central bank portal
ECSU Monitor Bloomberg proprietary economic surprise functions, related data functions, and central bank
indexes for the U.S., euro area, and the U.K. These website links.
quantify the intensity of divergences between
TAYL Analyze the key drivers of monetary policy of several
expectations and actual releases of economic indicators.
countries in context of the variables used by the Taylor
CBRT A global central bank rate monitor with several Rule and other models.
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FORECASTS
information for cross-country comparisons.
MIPR A global monitor of implied policy rates for central ECFC Get long-term economic, interest rate, and currency
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moves over time by comparing current market implied more than 80 country and region entities. Track, chart,
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Faster, better answers—24/7. <Help><Help> for Bloomberg Analytics
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Q1 2018

Senior Executive Editor for

Forecasting, Reviewed Deputy Editor-in-Chief

2018 Central Bank Outlook 30 Head of EMEA Sales

24 Carol Nelson, Steven DiSalvo,

A Plan Starts to Come Together 32 Global Chief Commercial Officer

2 BLOO M BERG M A R K ETS S PECIA L R EPO RT

ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECAST ACCURACY

6 BLOO M BERG M A R K ETS S PECIA L R EPO RT

INFLATION FORECAST ACCURACY

What to Talk About

8 < G O> I NS I D E THE TE RMI NA L

To switch the view

To track trends in cross-border portfolio investment flows, run {FOFP <GO>}.

Flows from China

<GO> I NS I D E THE TE RMI NA L 9

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10 < G O> I NS I D E THE TE RMI NA L

What Does Powell as Head of

<GO> I NS I D E THE TE RMI NA L 11

12 BLOO M BERG M A R K ETS S PECIA L R EPO RT Q 1 20 18 13

GDP 2.0% 2.6% GDP 3.0% 2.0%

Unemployment 3.7 3.8 Unemployment 6.2 6.5

Policy rate 7.25 6.5 Policy rate 1.0 1.0

Source: Bloomberg economist forecast Source: Bloomberg economist forecast

OUR ECONOMISTS SAY ... OUR ECONOMISTS SAY ...

14 BLOO M BERG M A R K ETS S PECIA L R EPO RT

GDP 2.3% 2.6%

CPI, YoY 2.0 2.3

Unemployment 4.1 3.8

Policy rate 1.5 2.0

Source: Bloomberg economist forecast

Chair Jerome Powell has a

the Fed’s removal of policy accommodation so far, financial con-

GDP 1.0% 2.3% GDP 6.2% 4.0%

CPI, YoY 3.0 4.7 CPI, YoY 12.3 11.8

Unemployment 12.0 10.2 Unemployment 10.9 10.3

Policy rate 7.0 8.5 Policy rate 8.0 8.0

Source: Bloomberg economist forecast Source: Bloomberg economist forecast

Elections Will Test a Central Banker’s OUR ECONOMISTS SAY ...

OUR ECONOMISTS SAY ... OUR ECONOMISTS SAY ...

16 BLOO M BERG M A R K ETS S PECIA L R EPO RT

CPI, YoY 1.5 1.5

Policy rate 4.35 4.35

Source: Bloomberg economist forecast

CHINA IS CONTEMPLATING LIFE after Zhou Xiaochuan. The PBOC

GDP 6.6% 7.5% GDP 0.9% 1.8%

CPI, YoY 3.5 3.5 CPI, YoY 0.8 0.7

Policy rate 6.0 5.5 Unemployment 3.1 3.1

Source: Bloomberg consensus forecast

Nursing the Economy Holding Steady, Unless Demand

OUR ECONOMISTS SAY ... Shifting Gears, From Quantitative Easing

18 BLOO M BERG M A R K ETS S PECIA L R EPO RT

GDP 2.3% 2.1%

CPI, YoY 1.4 1.4

OUR ECONOMISTS SAY … An Incoming Governor Inherits a Sagging