Econometrics PDF
Econometrics PDF
Arthur Campbell
MIT
What is a Regression?
Regression Equation
Regression Coe¢ cients, Standard Errors, T-statistics, Level of
Signi…cance, R 2 values
Interaction terms
I = β0 + β1 E + ε
Sykes, Alan. "An introduction to regression analysis." Chicago Working Paper in Law and Economics 020 (October 1993): 4.
The regression will typically …t the line which minimizes the sum of
the squared distances of the data points to the line
Sykes, Alan. "An introduction to regression analysis." Chicago Working Paper in Law and Economics 020 (October 1993): 7.
min ∑ (yi β0 β1 Xi )2
β0 β1
This determines the values of β0 and β1 and hence the position of the
line
There are many potential criteria we could use such
min ∑ jyi β0 β1 Xi j
β0 β1
QD = β0 P β1
ln QD = ln β0 + β1 ln P
ln QD = ln β0 + β1 ln P + ε
to determine β0 and β1
Here each data point would be (ln QD , ln P ) and the value of the
intercept is ln β0 and the slope is β1
The regression may in fact contain more than one explanatory variable
For instance we might think that a person’s income is in‡uenced by
both the number of years of education and the number of years
experience in the labour force
In this case we might run the following multi-variable regression
I = β0 + β1 E + β2 L
Here we can …nd the e¤ect education and labour force experience on
income separately
Figure by MIT OCW and adapted from: Hughes, J., C. Knittel, and D. Sperling. "Evidence of a shift in the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand."
Center for the Study of Energy Markets Working Paper 159 (2006): Table 1.
2 n 1
RAdjusted =1 1 R2
n m 1
where n is the number of data points and m is the number of
explanatory variables
The adjusted R 2 increases when a new variable is added if the new
term improves the model more than would be expected by chance
It is always less than the actual R 2