Simulation Assignment #2
Simulation Assignment #2
DEPARTMENT OF
COMPUTER SCIENCE
7. Validation
▪ The process of determining if the model accurately represents the system
• Comparison of the model results with collected data from the real
system
8. Experimental Design
▪ Alternative scenarios to be simulated
▪ Type of output data analysis (steady-state vs. terminating simulation
analysis)
▪ Number of simulations runs
▪ Length of each run
▪ Variance reduction
9. Production Run and Analysis
▪ Statistical tests for significance and ranking
• Point estimation
• Confidence-interval estimation
▪ Interpretation of results
10. Documentation and Report
▪ Program documentation
• Allows future modifications
• Creates confidence
▪ Progress reports
• Frequent reports (e.g. monthly) are suggested
• Alternative scenarios
• Performance measures of criteria used
• Results of experiments
• Recommendations
11. Implementation
▪ Implement the study in real system
In simple terms, a Monte Carlo simulation is a method of risk analysis. Businesses use it
prior to implementing a major project or change in a process, such as a manufacturing
assembly line.
Built on mathematical models, Monte Carlo analyses use the empirical data of the real
system’s inputs and outputs (e.g., supply intake and production yield). It then identifies
uncertainties and potential risks through probability distributions.
The advantage of a Monte Carlo-based simulation is that it provides awareness and a
thorough understanding of potential threats to your bottom-line and time-to-market.
You can implement Monte Carlo simulations to practically any industry or field,
including oil and gas, manufacturing, engineering, supply chain management, and many
others.
A discrete event simulation model enables you to observe the specific events that result in
your business processes. For example, the typical technical support process involves the
end-user calling you, your system receiving and assigning the call, and your agent
picking up the call.
You would use a discrete event simulation model to examine that technical support
process. You can use discrete event simulation models to study many types of systems
(e.g., healthcare, manufacturing, etc), and for a diverse range of outcomes.
For example, the Nebraska Medical Center had used discrete event simulation models to
see how it could remove workflow bottlenecks, increase the utilization of its operating
rooms, and lower patient/surgeon travel distance and time.
This is a very abstract form of simulation modeling. Unlike agent-based modeling and
discrete event modeling, system dynamics does not include specific details about the
system. So for a manufacturing facility, this model will not factor in data about the
machinery and labor.
Rather, businesses would use system dynamics models to simulate for a long-term,
strategic-level view of the overall system.
In other words, the priority is to get aggregate-level insights about the entire system in
response to an action — e.g., a reduction in CAPEX, ending a product line, etc.