Evaluating claims about climate change

There have been wide ranging claims about the evidence for and against climate change. This
activity aims to provide a structure for evaluating these claims in a scientific way.

This image illustrates one of the

arguments which have been used
against the evidence for climate
change, the idea that scientists
don’t agree on the extent of
climate change.

This argument is really misleading

as the vast majority of scientists
agree that the Earth’s temperature
is rising, their differences are in the
precise details of the climate
models used. Image: NASA Climate 365 go.nasa.gov/climate365

Activity 1: where do you stand on climate change?

Record your opinion about the evidence in the table by ticking the most suitable answer in each row.

Possible Scientific evidence and explanations of I am I think I think I am

climate change sure this this is this is sure this
is right right wrong is wrong
The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
is rising:

Since pre-industrial times, carbon dioxide levels

have increased 40 per cent.
The earth's surface is warming:

Between 1880 and 2012, earth's surface has

warmed by approximately 0.85°C.

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 Evaluating claims about climate change

Possible Scientific evidence and explanations of I am I think I think I am

climate change sure this this is this is sure this
is right right wrong is wrong
Arctic sea ice is melting:

Sea ice extent - has shrunk by between 3.5 and

4.1 per cent per decade since 1979
Earth's surface will continue warming:

The IPCC report predicts that surface

temperatures will continue to rise.
Sea levels will rise:

Sea levels are predicted to rise … rise by between

26 and 82 centimetres (cm).
Oceans will become more acidic

Earth System Models project a decrease in surface

ocean pH by the end of 21st century

Information taken from:

IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J.
Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)].

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 Evaluating claims about climate change

Activity 2: Your evaluation of Climate change articles?

The nature of the scientific method is that a hypothesis should be supported by a plausible explanation
and data, from an experiment which is repeatable by other researchers, then peer reviewed.

This process of objectively collecting data to support or refute a hypothesis is essentially the difference
between philosophy and science. There are some areas of science where experiments are hard to do
and other areas where the data are not easy to interpret. Climate change is one of these, there are so
many factors which can influence the climate and it is nearly impossible to control many of the
variables. For this reason the evidence for climate change is still contested by some groups.

Use this table to evaluate the three articles below.

Evaluating Claims about Climate Change

Least reliable  better  Most reliable

The Website, blog or A respectable Quality media, Textbook or Peer reviewed
publication letter from a newsletter or newspaper Science magazine journal or
private individual website governmt report
Status of the Unknown Well informed Professional or Scientist working Recognised
Author individual person expert in another in climate science expert in the field
discipline
Supporting None given Small sample or Single good Good methods, Two or more high
Data / preliminary study study, lacking large sample, quality studies
evidence details extended period with matching
of time results
Scientific None Untested Hypothesis Theory agreed by Scientific theory
explanations Hypothesis compares most of scientific or law widely
favourably with community accepted.
others

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 Evaluating claims about climate change

1. Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly
released... and here is the chart to prove it

By David Rose Published: 21:42 GMT, 13 October 2012

The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago, according to new data released last week. The
figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997
until August 2012, there was no
discernible rise in aggregate global
temperatures.

This means that the ‘plateau’ or

‘pause’ in global warming has now
lasted for about the same time as the
previous period when temperatures
rose, 1980 to 1996. Before that,
temperatures had been stable or
declining for about 40 years.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-

reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released--chart-prove-it.html#ixzz30H1YXVLv

Evaluation
Use the table to evaluate this article then explain your evaluation using words from the table.

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 Evaluating claims about climate change

2. "Despite Uncertainties, Need to Confront Climate Change Clear,"

F Kerry Emanuel, PhD , Director of the Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology (MIT), Feb. 15, published in the Boston Globe:

"Concentrations of the two most important long-lived greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane, have been
increasing since the dawn of the industrial era; carbon dioxide alone has increased by about 40 percent. These
increases have been brought about by fossil fuel combustion and changes in land use...

Global temperatures have been rising for roughly the past century and have so far increased by about 1.4 F. The rate
of rise of surface temperature is... larger than any natural change we have been able to discern for at least the past
1,000 years.

Disputes within climate science concern the nature and magnitude of feedback processes involving clouds and water
vapor, uncertainties about the rate at which the oceans take up heat and carbon dioxide, the effects of air pollution,
and the nature and importance of climate change effects such as rising sea level, increasing acidity of the ocean, and
the incidence of weather hazards such as floods, droughts, storms, and heat waves. These uncertainties are reflected
in divergent predictions of climate change made by computer models...

But when the dust settles, what we are left with is the evidence. And, in spite of all its complexity and uncertainties,
we should not lose track of the simple fact that theory, actual observations of the planet, and complex models -
however imperfect each is in isolation - all point to ongoing, potentially dangerous human alteration of climate."

Evaluation
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 Evaluating claims about climate change

3. "MIT Professor's Climate Change Op-Ed Proven False,"

William Gray, PhD, Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, Apr. 7, 2010,
available at Heartland Institute Website (The mission of the Heartland Institute is to discover, develop,
and promote free-market solutions to social and economic problems.)

"A high percentage of meteorologists and/or climate scientists do not agree that the climate changes we have seen are
mostly manmade. Thousands of us think the larger part of the climate changes we have observed over the last century
are of natural origin. I believe most of the changes that have been observed are due to multi-decadal and multi-century
changes in deep global ocean currents. Such changes have yet to be properly incorporated into the global models or
into most climate modelers’ thinking...

Many scientists believe a slightly warmer world would be, in general, more beneficial for humanity. The small
changes in climate we have seen so far and the changes we will likely see in the coming decades are not potentially
dangerous. It has been noted that vegetation growth is enhanced by higher CO2 levels.

The global climate models will never be able to replicate the complex global atmosphere/ocean environment and its
continuing changes...

We should all call out faulty science wherever we see it, including the blind belief (without any evidence beyond the
faulty models) that humans are largely responsible for climate change."

Evaluation
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Can you see any examples of ‘blind belief”, mentioned in the last line, in the article itself?

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 Evaluating claims about climate change

4. Cayman Islands Coral

Reefs Experiencing
Dramatic Comeback
January 21, 2014

Bonner R. Cohen
Bonner R. Cohen is a senior fellow with the National Center for Public Policy Research, (read full bio)

In a stunning example of the natural world’s remarkable ability to bounce back from ecological decline, the coral
reefs surrounding Little Cayman Island in the Caribbean Sea—all but written off as dead by some marine scientists
a decade ago—are rapidly regaining their health.

Back to Pre-Bleaching Levels

Bleaching, blamed by global warming activists on warmer ocean water, and the spread of infectious disease, took a
heavy toll on the reefs around the turn of the century. From 1999 to 2004, live coral cover declined by more than 40
percent. But a 13-year study conducted by the University of Florida and Caribbean researchers and released in
November 2013 found the amount of live coral on the reefs, the density of young colonies critical to the reefs’
future health, and the overall size of corals have returned to 1999 levels.

The original study “A Positive Trajectory for Corals at Little Cayman Island”, Carrie Manfrino, Charles A. Jacoby,
Emma Camp, Thomas K. Frazer, Published: October 09, 2013 in the online periodical Public Library of Science.

Evaluation
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Describe the difference between the Author of this article and the Researchers of the
study publisher in PLOS?
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 Evaluating claims about climate change

5. Global warming slows coral growth in Red Sea

Date: July 16, 2010 Source: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

In a pioneering use of computed tomography (CT) scans, scientists at Woods Hole Oceanographic
Institution (WHOI) have discovered that carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced global warming is in the process
of killing off a major coral species in the Red Sea. As summer sea surface temperatures have remained
about 1.5 degrees Celsius above ambient over the last 10 years, growth of the coral, Diploastrea
heliopora, has declined by 30% and "could cease growing altogether by 2070" or sooner, they report in
the July 16 issue of the journal Science.

"The warming in the Red Sea and the resultant decline in the health of this coral is a clear
regional impact of global warming," said Neal E. Cantin, a WHOI postdoctoral investigator and
co-lead researcher on the project. In the 1980s, he said, "the average summer [water]
temperatures were below 30 degrees Celsius. In 2008 they were approaching 31 degrees."

D. heliopora did not exhibit one of the typical signs of thermal stress: bleaching. "These corals
looked healthy," said Cohen. but CT scanning of the coral's skeletal structure in the laboratory
revealed "the secrets that the skeletons are hiding," she said. "The CT scans reveal that these
corals have actually been under chronic stress for the last 10 years, and that the rates of growth
were the lowest in 2008," the final year of the study

The full paper is : Neal E. Cantin, Anne L. Cohen, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Ann M. Tarrant, and Daniel C.
McCorkle. Ocean Warming Slows Coral Growth in the Central Red Sea. Science, 16 July 2010: Vol. 329.
no. 5989, pp. 322 - 325 DOI: you can read a shorter summary in Science Daily

Evaluation
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