Time

Step (Minutes) Probability

1 3 0.15
5 0.25
7 0.35
9 0.25
2 11 0.25
12 0.3
15 0.45
3 8 0.35
10 0.2
12 0.45
 Discount Rate (%) Number of Tags
5 250
20 220
35 120
50 80
65 70
90 60

Model

Total number of tags 800

Number of tags with 50%, 65% or 90%) 210
P(Purchasing pairs of shoes with 50%, 65% or 90%) 0.2625
Purchased pairs of shoes with 50%, 65% or 90% 2
Pairs of shoes purchased with < 50% before shoes with > 50% 3
Average Purchased pairs of shoes with <50% before shoes with > 50% #NAME?
C Probability
78 0.05
79 0.3
80 0.5
81 0.1
82 0.05
Football Tournament

Parameters
Probability of Team- Team-B
Game Win A Wins Wins Number of games Team-A wins
1 0.48 1 0 1
2 0.5 0 1 1
3 0.45 0 1 1
4 0.6 1 0 2
5 0.55 1 0 3
6 0.4 1 0 4
7 0.55 0 1 4

Model
Team A Wins 1
P(Team A Wins) #NAME?
Number of games Team-B wins Maximum number of wins
0 1
1 1
2 2
2 2
2 3
2 4
3 4
Shipping Cost ($) Project
Factory A B C
1 7 7 8
2 6 5 7
Demand 3220 3675 4125

Shipping Cost ($) Project

Factory A B C
1 3220 0 2275
2 0 3675 1850
Demand 3220 3675 4125

minimum Cost $ 80,990.00

ect
D Maximum Capacity
4 6500
3 8500
2975

ect
D Maximum Capacity
0 5495
2975 8500
2975
P(S1) 0.35 ProductSUM 0.1935
P(S2) 0.15
P(S3) 0.2
P(S4) 0.4
P(C|s1) 0.2
P(C|s2) 0.09
P(C|s3) 0.15
P(C|s4) 0.2
P(s1|C) 0.361757
P(s2|C) 0.069767
P(s3|C) 0.155039
P(s4|C) 0.413437
 Demand
Decision Alternatives Low Medium High
d1 $ 500.00 $ 350.00 $ 525.00
d2 $ 875.00 $ 300.00 $ 765.00

Low 500

d1 Medium 350

High 525

Low 875

d2 Medium 300

High 765

Decision Alternatives Max Profit Min Profit

d1 $ 525.00 $ 350.00
d2 $ 875.00 $ 300.00

For Optimistic approach: d2

For Conservative approach: d1
For minimax regret approach:

Regret or opportunity loss table

Demand
Maximum
Decision Alternatives Low Medium High Regret
d1 $ 375.00 $ - $ 240.00 $ 375.00
d2 0 $ 50.00 0 $ 50.00
The decision alternative is D2 with the minimum of the maximum regret values $50.
 Demand
Size of the Mall High Moderate Low P(F | High) 0.35
Large 25 15 -20 P(U | High) 0.65
Medium 20 12 -10 P(F | Moderate) 0.45
Small 15 13 5 P(U | Moderate) 0.55
Probability 0.35 0.4 0.25 P(F | Low) 0.2
P(U | Low) 0.8

If F - Favorable
State of Nature P(Sj) P(F|Sj) P(FnSj) P(Si|F)
S1(High) 0.35 0.35 0.1225 0.347518
S2(Moderate) 0.4 0.45 0.18 0.510638
S3(Low) 0.25 0.2 0.05 0.141844
P(F) = 0.3525 1

If U - Unfavorable
State of Nature P(Sj) P(U|Sj) P(UnSj) P(Si|U)
S1(High) 0.35 0.65 0.2275 0.351351
S2(Moderate) 0.4 0.55 0.22 0.339768
S3(Low) 0.25 0.8 0.2 0.30888
P(F) = 0.6475 1

The probability the report will be favorable is P(F ) = 0.3525

1
 s1 25
0.35
d1 4 s2 15
0.45
s3 -20
0.2

s1 20
0.35
2 d2 5 s2 12
0.45
s3 -10
0.2

s1 15
0.35
d3 6 s2 13
0.45
s3 5
1 0.2
s1 25
0.65
d1 7 s2 15
0.55
s3 -20
0.8

s1 20
0.65
3 d2 8 s2 12
0.55
s3 -10
0.8

s1 15
0.65
d3 9 s2 13
0.55
s3 5
0.8
U(x) = 1 - exp(-x/R)
Where R is the risk tolerance
Exp
For R = 35000
For R = 50000
U(x) = 1 - exp (-x/35000)

x For R = 35000 For R = 50000 0

-30000 -1.356418442384 -0.8221188004
-25000 -1.042727070266 -0.6487212707
-20000 -0.770794952435 -0.4918246976
-15000 -0.535063009255 -0.3498588076 -40000 -30000 -20000 -10000
-10000 -0.330712197447 -0.2214027582

U(x)
-5000 -0.153564994895 -0.1051709181
0 0 0
-0
5000 0.1331221002498 0.095162582
10000 0.2485227069247 0.1812692469
15000 0.3485609424689 0.2591817793
20000 0.4352818779922 0.329679954
25000 0.510458340443 0.3934693403
30000 0.5756271543231 0.4511883639
35000 0.6321205588286 0.5034146962
40000 0.681093442676 0.5506710359 -1
45000 0.7235469533704 0.5934303403

a Risk Neutral
b More risk seeking
 Exponential Utility Function
1

0.5

0
-20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
For R = 35000
For R = 50000

-0.5

-1

-1.5

x
 Demand
Decision Alternatives S1 S2 S3 EV(a) EV(b)
d1 7 3 4 4 5
d2 2 4 5 4.4 3.6
d3 8 2 3 3.2 4.8
Probability (a) 0.1 0.3 0.6
Probability (b) 0.4 0.2 0.4

a. Best decision is d2
b. Best decision is d1