5g em Report Final 1023 4
5g em Report Final 1023 4
5g em Report Final 1023 4
Contents
04 Foreword
by James Barton
DEVELOPING TELECOMS
05 Partners
CISCO / MATRIXX / OOREDOO / ZTE
07 5G Statistics
DEVELOPING TELECOMS
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
One of the most prevalent criticisms of 5G is that its unique selling points are
James Barton not yet apparent, and indeed the lack of clear use cases is causing operators
DEVELOPING TELECOMS
to balk at the high level of investment required merely to buy 5G spectrum, let
Editor
alone build out and run a 5G network. Under these circumstances, they seem
content to hold fire and wring as much value as they can from 4G – particularly
in emerging markets, where many operators feel that it will still be a few years
before their 4G investments deliver a return.
While this may seem understandable, the reality is that 5G can deliver
massive benefits to operators in emerging markets beyond superfast mobile
broadband. The scope of zero-latency M2M connectivity applied to industrial
IoT offers an unparalleled opportunity for streamlined operations and boosted
productivity, and once this begins to become apparent the frosty reception that
5G has thus far received will begin to thaw.
With that in mind, this report aims to examine the potential of 5G for operators
in emerging markets – whether that’s in terms of extending connectivity to
regions that have previously been too remote to serve, making up for the
shortfalls of previous generations, transforming enterprise or simply meeting
the explosive demand for data in these regions.
www.developingtelecoms.com
e 5 m s homicida | October 2019
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
Partners This report has been produced in partnership with the following companies and we would like thank them for their support.
CISCO MATRIXX
Cisco helps companies seize the opportunities of to- MATRIXX Software provides next-generation, cloud
day and tomorrow. We prove that amazing things can native digital commerce solutions that transform how
happen when you connect the previously unconnected. companies do business. Serving many of the world’s
By linking people, process, data, and things, we’ve largest communications companies, IoT players and
helped shape the future and change our world for emerging digital service providers, MATRIXX is committed
the better. Cisco leads the service provider journey, to delivering a modern commerce platform that easily
helping operators re-imagine their businesses with scales to support global marketplaces and consumption-
a keen focus on new revenue and customer loyalty. By based services. Through its relentless commitment to
helping service providers transform their infrastructure product excellence and customer success, MATRIXX
for agility, efficiency, and security, they can bring new empowers businesses to reinvent themselves and
applications to market faster and better empower their succeed as digital leaders. Visit www.matrixx.com for
teams. more information.
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
Partners This report has been produced in partnership with the following companies and we would like thank them for their support.
OOREDOO ZTE
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
Announcements
Announcement Countries
in
22 14
www.developingtelecoms.com | October 2019
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
Batelco 3.5 GHz Elisa 3.4 – 3.8 GHz Ooredoo 3.5 GHz
Bahrain Viva 3.5 GHz Viva 3.5 GHz
Zain 3.5 GHz
Latvia Lesotho Maldives
T Mobile 3.5 GHz Ooredoo 3.5 GHz Digi 3.6 – 3.8 GHz
Vodafone 3.5 GHz Vodafone 3.5 GHz
UAE Uruguay
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Honduras, Cambodia, China, Guam, Indonesia, Malaysia,
Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Puerto Rica Thailand, Vietnam
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
4. Subscriber Growth
0.25
North America South America Western Europe Eastern Europe Middle East Asia Pacific
800.00
700.00
600.00
Annual Investment (US$ BN)
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
IS 5G HERE?
The first 5G commercial services have now been launched across several
major global markets and deployment in some emerging geographies is
expected to follow in 2020 and 2021. These early 5G deployments are
specifically designed for either enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) or
fixed-wireless access (FWA), essentially targeting consumer applications. In
other words, the first waves of 5G deployments are designed to provide a
business continuity to existing LTE networks and services, with the sole value
proposition being to extend the network capacity and performance (i.e., higher
bandwidth and low latency). No doubt, 5G will follow the track of previous
generation cellular networks to further improve the consumers’ lifestyle and
augment the way they interact with smart devices and machines around them.
Malik Saadi However, it is fair to say the industry has not even scratched the surface of 5G
ABI RESEARCH capabilities when it comes to addressing opportunities beyond the consumer
Vice President, Strategic Technologies market. In the industrial market, the technology has a lot more to offer than
just network performance enhancement and should not be perceived as just
another more powerful access technology. 5G holds the potential to become
the foundation platform for many new applications. The network transformation
enabled by 5G will solve many pain points across multiple industries and
will support completely new use cases otherwise not possible with existing
networks. 5G is about reacting to the market demand in a timely fashion by
enabling new services to be launched in a matter of days, not months or even
years as it is the case with existing networks today. Also, 5G will serve as a
catalyst to many other technologies and business models that could fuel a
great economic value to developed and emerging economies without requiring
significant expenditures on carbon footprint.
The most significant value of 5G will not come from connecting humans
only but from its ability to provide seamless connectivity to infrastructures,
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
machines, and things. 5G is a major transformation 5G is also expected to play an instrumental role in
tool that has the potential to improve efficiency and revolutionizing the manufacturing industry in line with
performance across many businesses and industries. This Industry 4.0 guidance. The reliability, low-latency, and
efficiency can be achieved through the implementation of high-bandwidth brought by 5G could help the industrial
distributed intelligence and ubiquitous connectivity that manufacturing sector to exponentially increase production
will allow workers and machines to communicate, share and operation efficiencies while helping this industry to
information and intelligence on-demand, and collaborate reach almost zero-defect manufacturing processes. 5G
autonomously. 5G will help businesses to enhance the will also enable manufacturing site operations, both on the
performance of their infrastructure. It will also enable front and back end, to be highly automated. Infrastructure
their workforce to convert hours invested in addressing can be easily recycled and re-used flexibly, machines
jobs that can otherwise be done by machines into more can be remotely controlled and maintained, and logistics
productive tasks. flows can be more optimized. All these elements are likely
to save the manufacturing industry billions of dollars in
ABI Research estimates 5G will inject US$10.5 trillion into
operation costs, while enabling a large-scale yield of
the GDP by 2035, of which US$4 trillion will be generated
goods, to significantly decrease the overall end-product
directly from the 5G ecosystem and US$6.5 trillion will
cost.
be associated with increased productivity across various
adjacent industries. Industrial manufacturing, media & In automotive, 5G technologies are increasingly linked
entertainment, and automotive/transportation are the with new use-cases related to autonomous driving and
three key markets that will be most impacted, but other smart transportation. Low-latency cellular connectivity
industry sectors will be impacted quite significantly as and Cellular Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) will pave the path
well including healthcare, retail and wholesale trades, for 5G mission-critical network deployments to address
agriculture, government affairs, financial services, these use-cases. Additionally, intelligence installed on
construction, and energy. connected bus stops, billboards, traffic lights, and other
street fixtures will offer synergies between vehicles and
For example, in the smart agriculture sector, 5G will
roadside infrastructure, which could enhance road traffic
help farmers to efficiently monitor the state and the
efficiency and significantly reduce its impact on the
chemical composition of their land as well as the weather
environment. This development will spur major paradigm
conditions in which they operate. They could also better
shifts in terms of productivity, safer roads, sustainability,
schedule watering, seeding, and harvesting operations
business models, and monetization practices in the
by analyzing all data collected from the various sensors
automotive and transportation markets.
they deploy. 5G-equipped sensors will also help farmers
monitor the health of cattle and identify the optimal time In the retail market, the buying behavior for the new
for breeding, which could change the entire beef and dairy generation of power buyers is increasingly influenced by
industry. the technological tools they have at their disposal. The
shift in consumers’ behavior will push retailers to use
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
intelligence tools such as 5G and Artificial Intelligence (AI) RELEVANCE TO EMERGING MARKETS
to engineer the customer experience. 5G will offer retailers
Emerging markets have always lagged behind in adopting
key tools for amplifying the customer service experience.
the latest generation mobile networks. For example, it
For instance, augmented access to product information
took 6-7 years for some emerging markets - including
and awareness via AR and VR technologies, reduced
India, Egypt, Kenia, Tanzania, Philippines, Turkey, and
transaction time, and personalized experiences using
major Latin American countries - to deploy 3G services
robotics, AI, and machine learning technologies. 5G will
after theses services had been widely commercially
also enable retailers to track consumers’ behavior better
available in the developed world. Although some of these
and address their needs in real-time. It will enable them to
countries - including India, Brazil, and Turkey - have
flexibly and dynamically revamp product shelves to better
adopted 4G much faster (three years after the first world
merchandise products likely to sell best by using virtual
commercial deployment), the bulk of emerging markets
shelves instead of physical shelves. Such technology will
launched the technology only in 2016 or after. So, will 5G
also enable them to save space used for stocking and
submit to a similar fate and will not be widely deployed in
exhibiting products.
emerging markets until 2024-2025?
Health care is another sector expected to be transformed
Many industry observers believe that the still fresh
in the coming years, and 5G will play a key role here.
deployment of 4G, the capital-intensive 5G infrastructure
With the population aging in major developed countries
and enabling devices, and the overall financial health of
and the ongoing deficiencies in medical care in emerging
the telecommunication sector in these countries mean
countries, the health sector is undoubtedly one of the
mobile service providers (MSPs) in emerging markets will
sectors starving for modernization. 5G will enable patients
be in no rush to upgrade their subscribers to 5G. The
to access medical services remotely and will bring
rationale here is for them to first exhaust the potential of
hospitals to the patient’s home, mainly in rural areas or
4G and previous generation networks before migrating to
in emerging markets where access to health equipment
5G. They need to wait for 5G infrastructure and devices to
is difficult. Collaborative health will allow the medical
be affordable enough once economies of scale compile
force to share experiences and diagnostics of medical
in the developed world. Under these assumptions, wide
records. Machine-assisted and remote surgeries enabled
deployment of 5G services in emerging markets may not
by 5G will save lives by increasing the efficiency in the
materialize before at least five years from now.
way medical procedures are conducted. 5G will help
in identifying, tracking, optimizing, and predicting the
workflow of health personnel and in monitoring health
equipment in real-time, which will lead to significant
savings in the hospital operational efficiency. In addition
to saving money, policy compliance is another example of
how 5G can help save lives – by tracking equipment and
personnel when they are needed.
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
However, there are additional assumptions to consider of 5G as the core technology for mobile broadband -
here in order to provide a fair assessment on time to 5G in mainly regions where 4G is not deployed yet, or that are in
emerging markets and the business case for it: the earliest stages of deploying it.
· Massive growth of mobile data traffic: The mobile · 5G beyond the consumer market: Although the
data consumption in emerging markets is surging at consumer market is the low-hanging fruit for 5G in
rapidly, to the extent in some emerging countries like emerging markets, it is by no mean the only opportunity.
India, Turkey, and Mexico the growth of average mobile 5G will be the foundation for the digital transformation of
data consumption per user is even faster than this in the enterprise. Many governments in emerging markets
some developed regions. This growth is spurred by the are now launching nationwide programs to modernize
democratization of social networks and smartphones, the their industries and underlying infrastructure. Examples
use of mobile phones as the primary connection to the of these programs include “Digital India” and “Make in
internet, and the popularity of vlogging services in these India" programs, “Industry 4.0 Roadmap for Mexico”,
countries. In this case, 5G will help MSPs in these regions and “Industrial Internet Brazilian Association (ABII)”. In
to cope with the massive growth in mobile data traffic and addition, a number of global manufacturers in textile,
the technology has the potential to offer a much low cost automobile, and aerospace are shifting their facilities to
per gigabit of data, mainly in hot-zone areas. emerging markets like Mexico, Vietnam, Morocco, and
India. These manufacturers may want to see their facilities
· 5G device affordability from day 1: The affordability of
in these countries adopt the same level of cutting-edge
early 5G smartphones, mainly these offered by Chinese
technologies - like 5G or AI - as they have in their main
manufacturers will encourage many MSPs in emerging
facilities.
markets to accelerate their plans for launching 5G eMBB
services. · Opportunities for Infra suppliers: Some infrastructure
suppliers may see emerging markets as an excellent
· 5G to help connect the unconnected: The market
opportunity for them to widen their footprint and win
opportunity for connectivity in some emerging markets
market share. Chinese suppliers, in particular, have seen
nis far from being exhausted as hundreds of millions of
opportunities to sell their 5G equipment restricted in the
users - mainly in remote areas in these regions - are still
western world because of the U.S. government ban. They
unconnected. A good example of programs bringing
may want to accelerate their go-to-market strategy in
connectivity in remote areas is India’s Low Mobility Large
emerging markets to make up for any loss of opportunity
Cell (LMLC), which enables a large geographical area to
in the developed world.
be covered by a single cell. 5G, notably over the low-
bands spectrum, has the potential to bring connectivity to · Accelerated Spectrum Auctions: 5G will be deployed
these areas at very competitive price points. much faster than expected in most regions of the world.
ABI Research forecasts that the new generation will need
· Weak 4G coverage is an opportunity for 5G: Some
just 4 years to achieve 500 million subscribers after the
emerging regions may want to accelerate the deployment
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
ratification of the first 5G standard, while it took 5 years faster than 4G and may become a lot cheaper than 4G
for 4G and 10 years for 3G. Regulators in the developing for IoT devices, which could lower the barrier to adoption
world are aiming to accelerate 5G auctions and support for 5G applied to industrial applications in emerging
5G deployments even in the early phase of 5G global economies.
deployment. Unlike what happened with 4G, some
Overall, unlike with previous generation networks, 5G
emerging economies including India, Turkey, Brazil, Saudi
is seen as a lifetime opportunity for many emerging
Arabia, Mexico, Russia, Qatar, Oman, and Uruguay are
economies to modernize their infrastructure and
indeed accelerating the auctions of 5G spectrum in line
industries, spur economic growth, and help them improve
with their nations’ industrial transformation programs.
their global competitiveness and economic trading.
Most of these countries have planned 5G spectrum
Countries that don’t jump on the 5G wave may not take
auctions for 2020 at the latest. Bear in mind that
advantage of the impact 5G will have on their GDP and
governments in these countries are widening 5G auctions
economic growth, which could translate into hundreds
beyond the traditional MSPs to include industrial players,
of billions of dollars in loss of opportunities in the longer
fiber and fixed connectivity providers, and other service
term.
providers. Revenues collected from 5G spectrum licensing
are expected to be much higher than these associated
with 4G and this money may be used to support
public projects for accelerating the modernization and
digitization of the core infrastructure of these countries
(smart spaces, smart agriculture, smart manufacturing,
smart energy, healthcare, etc.), which will in turn
accelerate the deployment of 5G in these countries.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
Malik Saadi, Managing Director and Vice President, ABI Research provides strategic guidance to
Strategic Technologies at ABI Research, is focusing visionaries, delivering actionable intelligence on the
on technology innovation across various industries, transformative technologies that are dramatically
including telecommunications, consumer electronics, reshaping industries, economies, and workforces
IoT, and other emerging industries. across the world. ABI Research’s global team of
analysts publish groundbreaking studies often years
With more than 20 years of experience in the
ahead of other technology advisory firms, empowering
telecommunications and computing industries as a
our clients to stay ahead of their markets and their
technology expert and analyst, he guides his research
competitors.
team toward uncovering the impact of technology
innovation on different industries and markets, For more information about ABI Research’s services,
with the ultimate goal to provide clients with both contact us at +1.516.624.2500 in the Americas,
quantitative and qualitative vision of the overall market +44.203.326.0140 in Europe, +65.6592.0290 in Asia-
development and how the various technologies Pacific or visit www.abiresearch.com.
involved will empower this development.
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
5G is about delivering connected experiences from the cloud to the client. But
what does that mean, and how does that get facilitated in an optimal manner for
a mobile operator? Delivering a connected experience means that the client will
no longer be burdened with the concern of a good connection. Clients no longer
have to worry about having the bandwidth to do, see, interact, collaborate, or
experience a service or application, no matter where they are or how fast they
are traveling. For a network to deliver a connected experience and also be cost
effective, it must evolve to be a cloud platform. It must leverage virtualization,
cloud-native microservices and advanced automation to minimize human
interaction in the day-to-day basic functions of the mobile cloud platform.
Omar Sultan
CISCO
THE FIRST VIRTUALIZED NETWORK
Product Line Manager,
Cloud Platform and Solutions Group Japan’s newest mobile operator, Rakuten Mobile, has created a distributed
telco cloud platform to deliver all of their services. It is fully virtualized from
RAN to core with end-to-end automation for network and services. Radio
access will initially be 4G LTE-Advanced and Wi-Fi, and in early 2020, Rakuten
Mobile plans to add 5G radio. This disruptive architecture enables the
company to deliver a broad suite of services including consumer mobile, NB-
IOT, rich media, and low-latency services including AR/VR. All of the services
benefit from an innovative multi-access edge computing (MEC) architecture,
which enables a differentiated user experience.
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
DISTRIBUTED AND COMMON CARRIER-GRADE TELCO The Rakuten cloud platform (RCP) is built from NFV
CLOUD Infrastructure (NFVI) that hosts the VNFs and a
Rakuten’s distributed and common carrier-grade telco management and orchestration layer. Cisco Virtualized
cloud reflects the changing nature of traffic. Subscribers Infrastructure Manager (CVIM) is an open, modular
can no longer be served from a far-away central data containerized NFVI software solution that forms the
center and providers can’t assume that they know where building blocks of RCP. The RCP deployment embeds
their customers are located. The Rakuten cloud platform Red Hat Enterprise Linux and Red Hat OpenStack
is able to serve customers wherever they are, whichever Platform. Beyond support for Cisco and third-party VNFs,
device they are on, whatever service they are consuming. CVIM provides key features like security hardening,
It delivers consistent capabilities and a predictable automated zero-touch provisioning, and full lifecycle
essentially a private cloud optimized for hosting virtualized Underpinning it all, Cisco ACI and Cisco Nexus 9000
network functions (VNFs). series switches link network, compute and storage
resources (see Figure 1).
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
To meet business demands, every element of the Because Rakuten has a distributed telco cloud, it is
Rakuten cloud platform needs to be programmable. made up of a combination of NFVIs of various sizes at
The programmable infrastructure uses the Cisco NFV thousands of locations across the network.
Infrastructure solution (NFVI) and our IOS-XE, IOS-XR
All of them are tied together to a centralized policy,
and ACI-based transport platforms. They provide rich,
management, and automation framework (see Figure 2).
capable, programmatic interfaces that met Rakuten’s
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
NFVI
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
CISCO CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE (CX) TEAM HELPS MAKE augment valuable examples from the Rakuten Cloud
THE REIMAGINED NETWORK A REALITY Platform as part of their transformation to a more agile,
The Rakuten Mobile Telco Cloud Platform is the first of its flexible, service-oriented network. Edge computing can
kind mobile network. Moving from white board to reality be made highly cost effective by building in only what
is its own story. The Rakuten Mobile team had a vision of you need for the desired workload. Advanced automation
this reimagined network and together with the Cisco CX with two-layer orchestration and zero-touch provisioning
team and partners we made this a reality in under a year. simplifies operations and reduces human error and costs.
The CX team built a lab in Tokyo for the design of Open vRAN is not only possible - it’s a good alternative
innovations and proof of new solutions. This included that is cost effective and eliminates vendor lock-in.
designing and building of new CPU for specific edge Virtualized and cloud native solutions can be found that
compute requirements, with the goal of reducing costs, are telco-grade and highly scalable.
zero-touch deployment and telco-grade resiliency and You can see more about how a software-defined mobile
performance. This team also engineered an advanced network can help your evolution to 5G and improve
automation system for the entire network operations performance and savings at the following sites:
using the Cisco CX Matrix – an in-house designed and
www.cisco.com/go/5g
built single-pane of glass user interface that is highly
www.cisco.com/go/mobile
customizable. With this Matrix GUI, the Rakuten team
turned up the entire network in ten minutes – zero-touch http://www.cisco.com/go/vim
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
Matt Walker and independence from the Chinese state are fairly bipartisan in the US, and
MTN CONSULTING shared by a number of European governments.
Chief Analyst
Yet Huawei certainly isn’t going anywhere; it has the broadest portfolio of
products in the industry, and its 23% market share in network infrastructure
(NI) sales to telcos is more than Nokia and Ericsson combined (figure, below).
Since Meng’s arrest, the vendor has hardly backed away from its ambitions –
and the Chinese government has made clear its support for Huawei’s long term
growth.
Top 5 vendors account for over 55% of NI sales to telcos (1Q19 annualized):
9.7% Ericsson
23.2% Huawei
11.8% Nokia
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
In the developing world, Huawei’s network infrastructu- Net debt as % of revenues, telco v. webscale
re share is over 30%, and in most developing markets
this figure is rising due in part to “China Inc”. Huawei
70%
– and its customers – continue to benefit from cut-rate 56 52.9 50.4
41.7 49.3 48.9
37.6
financing available from Chinese banks, among other 36.1
In developing regions such as CIS, Latin America (LA), however, in the west African country of Togo ($617 GDP
and Sub-Saharan Africa, 3G remains the primary mobile per capita), its local unit Moov Togo only launched 4G
connection technology. While 4G will overtake 3G soon in mid-2018. There is little need or incentive for Etisalat
even in these low ARPU markets, 5G will take years to push 5G anytime soon in Togo.
to emerge. According to stats from the GSMA, these The natural conservatism of telcos is heightened when
regions will respectively see 5G account for 12%, 8%, lots of things are changing on the supply side. Ri-
and 3% of their total connections by 2025. ght now, Huawei-related uncertainty is slowing down
These are cellular connections and don’t factor in IoT procurement. Even if a product is on the shelf, a telco
- a big caveat given 5G’s promise for device to device needs to know it can be supported after the sale. Given
connections. However, the point remains that 5G will be that some countries are considering restrictions on
a slow evolution - telcos like to stretch the life of techno- Huawei, it’s only natural for telcos to take a breather.
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
running – although this is not certain - it will likely lau- Network operator investment by type, 2018
nch an aggressive supply side push for 5G in its stron- (%revenues)
This could all end up being good for operators if they 16.4 Capex
may not want to embroil themselves in that process. Facebook, Microsoft etc – are by contrast splurging on
staff. They spend heavily on R&D, an average of 10.3% of
This is now a political issue, as concerns about foreign
revenues in 2018 (vs. 1.3% for telcos; figure). Webscale
debt levels grow. Just last month the Kiel Institute for
R&D projects are all over the map, in line with the range of
the World Economy issued a report on “China’s Over-
the companies’ business interests. Most important, all of
seas Lending”, noting that for the 50 main recipients
the big WNOs spend heavily on network R&D, designing
of Chinese direct lending, “the average stock of debt
equipment to suit their high-capacity, high-growth needs
owed to China has increased from less than 1% of
precisely. They typically use original design manufacturers
GDP in 2005 to more than 15% of debtor country GDP
(ODMs) to build and then ship the gear to sites worldwide.
in 2017.” The study also found that “about one half
of China’s overseas loans to the developing world are These webscale companies have pushed open
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
CHANGE COMES SLOWER TO THE TELCO WORLD, BUT There is a benefit to being an early mover, and that’s
AT&T GIVING OPEN NETWORKING A PUSH especially true now - lots of small players are eager
However, telco adoption of open networking/open source to sign deals that give them bragging rights. Accton’s
has been slow due to weak OSS/BSS system support Edgecore Networks, for instance, is working on white box
and telcos’ slow buying cycle: they do not introduce cell site gateways with large carriers Vodafone, Telefonica,
change into the network quickly. There are signs that this TIM Brasil, BT, and Orange – all but BT have significant
is changing; for instance with AT&T’s December 2018 operations in developing markets where deployment is
commitment to deploy “white box routers” at up to 60,000 possible. Locally owned competitors would have strong
5G cell towers over the next few years. AT&T first laid out incentives to follow.
With AT&T’s white box commitment, open source As 5G becomes a reality and Huawei still has issues,
hardware in the 5G RAN has become more attractive vendors elsewhere in Asia are looking to exploit
- even if just for routers. However, AT&T’s open source uncertainty. That doesn’t just mean other RAN suppliers;
commitment comes at a cost. The company does have a it involves fiber, transmission, router/switch, and other
significant R&D budget, totaling $1.4B in 2018 (or 0.9% of product areas, and software/IT services. It also involves
revenues). In the case of the cell site routers, AT&T is not many countries: India, Korea, Taiwan, and Japan all host
just buying something off the shelf. The “UfiSpace” white competitive players in the telecom network infrastructure
box is powered by a network operating system called space. None approach the scope of even a mini-Huawei
Vyatta. This OS required both internal development (i.e. but telcos are more willing to buy a la carte nowadays.
R&D) and an acquisition (of Brocade’s Vyatta division) to
India is interesting because its latest Telecom Policy
develop. On the flip side, AT&T has managed to keep its
(2018) explicitly called for the development of its telecom
capex outlays to just 12.2% of revenues (2018), among
equipment sector. Well before the Huawei crisis, India’s
the lowest of all big telcos worldwide.
Telecom Secretary, Aruna Sundararajan, argued that India
Not all carriers in the developing world can develop their should embrace 5G aggressively, not just for services
own network operating system, clearly. Most need to but to help develop India’s export sector. India is a big
allocate more funding to R&D, though, with the explicit enough market that the big global RAN vendors are
goal of capex reduction – and increased leverage over making local investments in R&D and manufacturing, and
their suppliers. That’s all the more important to do now partnering locally. Ultimately this could expand prospects
as supply chains are in upheaval. Telcos with country (and product lines) for companies in other segments like
operations in the developing world should be more Sterlite and Tejas. It could also help open networking
involved in key bodies like ONF, OCP, O-RAN Alliance, specialist Radisys, now owned by India’s largest telco Jio.
and the Telecom Infrastructure Project (TIP).
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
India becomes more interesting in terms of network · Use the new hires to fully evaluate cost saving
infrastructure when you consider Taiwan. Its local tech opportunities related to open networking, and
trade association, TAITRA, is pushing hard on India infrastructure spinoffs to the carrier neutral sector of
for both export and partnership opportunities. India’s network operators.
traditional strength (workforce-wise) has been in software
· Finally, I would make sure I was getting objective advice
(e.g. Wipro, Tech Mahindra), while Taiwan is strong in
on prospects for 5G business use cases, and the right
electronics manufacturing, chips, displays, and sensors.
investment strategy to pursue them. More capex isn’t
There are some partnership opportunities that look always the answer.
attractive on paper. Already Taiwan’s Foxconn is moving
some iPhone production to India, for instance. But politics
are a factor in the India-Taiwan avenue. And if politics is
what motivates a deal, then a new political environment
could make the deal unstable, so things are likely to go
slowly here.
Mobile operators face an unsettled vendor landscape and an independent market research and advisory firm
tight capex budgets. Planning 5G in this climate is not founded in 2017. He has 25 years of experience in
easy. If I led a developing market mobile telco – Axiata, telecommunications industry analysis, consulting,
say, or America Movil – I would use this time to: and research program management. MTN
Consulting’s research focus is network operators,
· Study my current network equipment inventory
focusing on: how they finance, acquire and deploy
(including software elements) to gauge security and
technology for use in their networks and operations.
regulatory risks – for all vendors;
He can be reached at: [email protected];
· Push regulators to guarantee no future unfunded follow him @mattwtelecom”
mandates to rip & replace;
25
10 Ways to Make
Money with 5G
A Playbook for Digital Leaders
www.developingtelecoms.com/10-ways-to-make-money-with-5g
5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
the area of digital commerce. It’s clear that MATRIXX thinks a lot
MATRIXX has provided digital commerce solutions for many operators focused
on consumer communications services, but it’s also been in the vanguard of
telecoms IoT initiatives, helping service providers to find revenue in connected
Jennifer Kyriakakis devices for consumers at Swisscom, and in IoT enterprise enablement at TATA.
MATRIXX
So it comes as no surprise to find MATRIXX also leading the 5G conversations,
Founder and VP of Marketing
focusing, from the technology’s earliest days, on the business case, the use
cases and the revenue possibilities of 5G – not just on the tech.
We’re starting to see many use cases for 5G emerge in the world’s most
advanced economies, and for IoT initiatives that will depend on 5G, or at least
be enriched by it. But is that also true of the developing world? After all, in
many emerging economies 4G is still a recent arrival – do operators there really
need to be thinking about 5G?
I think the question is not whether developing markets need 5G, so much as
‘how soon can they have it?’ The demand will definitely be there – in the need
for reliable broadband to fixed locations and to data-hungry mobile users, for
example. The need to optimise resource usage, make industry and agriculture
more efficient, and to help it move to more commercially and ecologically
27
5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
sustainable business models is even more relevant to education, driving much greater mobility – in both a social
developing countries. 5G can improve the quality of life in and physical sense. Resource use – such as water and
over-crowded but under-resourced cities, reach remote power - could be more sustainable. The country could be
areas with medical, educational, and social resources - transformed! Does it have to go through a 5-10 year 4G
and provide high-bandwidth content and entertainment! lifecycle before it can have these benefits? Or can it think
The need for what 5G could bring is not hard to define. about rolling 5G out alongside 4G and leapfrogging to
much closer parity with the west?
OK, but those countries need to get comfortable with 4G
first, don’t they? Many have barely started down that road. I guess we need to think about the cost then? Not just the
networks but supporting business platforms like yours –
People in the developing world are certainly hungry for
can operators really contemplate two transformations in
the reliable internet connections that widespread 4G will
quick succession?
bring them, but 5G is something different, and not just an
incremental improvement over 4G. No, they can’t – but we’d argue that they don’t need to.
A lot of what we’re talking about now - whether that’s
In our opinion, just as important as the specific use cases
transforming the business to exploit the potential of
- if a little more intangible - is the opportunity to help
4G and meet the expectations of a rising generation of
developing countries increase the pace with which they’re
customers, or moving into the IoT, or taking advantage
catching up with the world’s leading economies and level
of what 5G will have to offer - really comes under the
the global playing field somewhat. To use a phrase we
heading of ‘digital commerce’. It’s about monetising what
often hear at MATRIXX, 5G could help to bridge the divide
the internet and digital technology has to offer us. Many
– the technological and social divide that exists between
service providers do need to transform, but the tipping
the world’s richer and poorer countries – and it’s important
point isn’t between 4G and 5G - it’s earlier than that. And
that that happens sooner rather than later.
when they do, they need to be looking forward, to give
Can you provide some examples? themselves confidence that not only can they support
Well take a country like India, for example, which is an interactive consumer environment based on 4G and
already a vital hub for manufacturing, light industry, smartphones, but that they’re resilient enough to support
computing and much more – while still operating in large the new opportunities that 5G and the IoT are beginning
could be with pervasive connectivity that hooked up Clearly you’re having to think about this already in some
industry, logistics and transportation, that resolved some of the other markets that MATRIXX is supporting. Can
of the traffic and travel issues in major Indian cities – you give us some examples of what operators should be
as well as providing fixed wireless broadband to large thinking about in the BSS space as they look forward?
swathes of the population and many small businesses
A key requirement is flexible and scalable performance,
that have hitherto managed with little better than dial-
to give the business resilience and ‘headroom’ for what
up. People could have better access to healthcare and
28
5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
could be exponential growth in traffic and transaction to accommodate not just 5G but also legacy networks
volumes in the digital era - but just as important is the and other network technologies – in particular those that
need for a platform that’s ‘digital-first’ in what it does, and may form part of the future IoT landscape.
ready for tomorrow’s challenges. So that means low-
Finally, MATRIXX is a company with its roots in Silicon
latency – not just to deal with millions of prepaid balances,
Valley. California. Are emerging markets really of interest to
but to provide immediate responsiveness to online
you?
customers who want to engage through digital channels
and will be expecting the same interactive experience We’re more than interested, we’re massively excited. The
that they get from other leading companies in the digital world’s leading economies may lead the field today in
economy. It means flexible configurability too, because terms of network technology, but emerging markets are
tomorrow’s business models may look very different to catching up fast. It’s an exciting journey to follow and
today’s and will require increasing amounts of support and given that mobile internet penetration is still very low in
charging for small businesses and enterprises, settlement many developing countries, it’s a journey that’s really just
with content producers and other operators and so on... beginning. As with 4G currently, operators in emerging
the business platform of tomorrow needs to be powerful, markets have an opportunity to learn from the experience
for sure, but it also has to be agile. of their counterparts in today’s high-income countries,
particularly about which services will fly with consumers
What are the main challenges unique to emerging
and enterprises, and how those services can best be
markets?
monetised. It’s not one-way traffic though; emerging
Low operational costs will continue to be critical of markets often have very young populations. We’re keen
course. We believe ARPUs will grow as we move towards to see how they take to 4G and mobile internet services,
5G but will continue to be constrained in many developing particularly in regions where broadband access to the
markets and although volumes in many services – such internet has historically been scarce and often costly,
as IoT service enablement – could be very high, margins and we’re interested to see what strategies operators will
are likely to be low. This drives the need for more cost- adopt to keep them on board and loyal in the face of new
efficient ways of running the BSS – either from the cloud competition from internet players. These are going to be
or on small footprint non-proprietary hardware. exciting times.
29
5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
MATRIXX Founder and Vice President of Marketing, MATRIXX Software provides next-generation, cloud
Jennifer Kyriakakis, brings deep expertise in both native digital commerce solutions that transform how
telecoms and software with roles ranging from complex companies do business. Serving many of the world’s
systems delivery to technical sales to strategic largest communications companies, IoT players
marketing. Her 20 plus years of experience helping and emerging digital service providers, MATRIXX is
Telcos reinvent themselves has propelled the growth committed to delivering a modern commerce platform
of MATRIXX into markets all over the globe. In 2009, that easily scales to support global marketplaces and
Jennifer co-founded MATRIXX Software with the vision consumption-based services. Through its relentless
of transforming how Telcos do in business in the digital commitment to product excellence and customer
economy. success, MATRIXX empowers businesses to reinvent
themselves and succeed as digital leaders. Visit www.
Jennifer is a Forbes contributor and is often recognized
matrixx.com for more information.
for her impact on the industry. Some of those
acknowledgments include being named Women in IT
Entrepreneur of the Year by Information Age, Women to
Know in Mobile from Martech Executive, 2017 Women
of Influence by Silicon Valley Business Journal, Gold
Innovator of the Year and Silver Entrepreneur of the
Year by Women World Awards and most recently a
Women in Business Gold Stevie®. As a panellist and
keynote speaker, she has shared her thoughts on the
topics of leadership and technology at events including
Mobile World Congress, Big Communications Event,
TM Forum Live and Telecom Council Mobile Forum.
30
5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
Reliance Jio and Cisco have created the world's largest and most affordable
4G network, empowering millions of Indians to fulfil their dreams.
In 2015 India was ranked 155th in the world in mobile data consumption. Now
it is number 1. Watch the video to see how the Jio partnership with Cisco is
transforming lives and imagine what you can achieve with 5G.
31
5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
as the US and South Korea are leading the way with the first
all the excitement and hype that has shrouded 5G over the last
position their economies for the digital era. Especially for the US
that will lead in our digital future. But what does the 5G race mean
Leonard Lee for the emerging and developing markets? Do operators in these
NEXT CURVE
markets have the opportunity to rethink the network to enable new
Managing Director
economic possibilities in the era of 5G?
So, what is 5G? It’s the next generation mobile network, right? It will bring
about killer capabilities such as eMBB (enhanced Mobile Broadband), URLLC
(Ultra Reliable Low Latency Communications) and mMTC (Massive Machine
Type Communications) which have become the hallmarks of the 5G promise -
but with time.
32
5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
5G also presents a revolutionary opportunity for It is increasingly apparent that the mobile 5G narrative is
operators to reinvent themselves into digital service rapidly being flipped on its head with operators realizing
providers that offer converged CT (Communications that the near-term value of 5G is not with mmWave. To
Technology) and IT (Information Technology) services date, mmWave continues to struggle to find a value
to their customers and recognize that the nature of case that will make it a viable anchor upon which an
communications will change dramatically in the era of operator can hitch the evolution of their network to 5G.
5G. In fact, 5G technologies and standards (3GPP and The net effect of this dynamic is that those marquee ITU
ETSI) are driving this convergence as they foster the use cases of autonomous vehicles and remote robotic
cloud-native transformation of the network and the fusion surgery are going to be pretty well off in the future, as
of compute with connectivity via Multi-Access Edge both of these applications are far from being ready for
Computing (MEC) support. mass adoption today.
Out of the gate, operators leading the 5G charge are of network densification and therefore cost. mmWave
learning sobering lessons - early deployments have not realities prompted Verizon to make an urgent request
lived up to lofty expectations due to limited and spotty to the FCC in June of 2019 to release underutilized
coverage and inconsistent quality of service. This was mid-band C-band spectrum for operator use. Sprint
to be expected, as we have seen this dynamic before is banking on their mid-band spectrum strategy for 5G
with prior generations of the mobile network, but this which they are ironically basing on their legacy 2.5 GHz
hasn’t stopped the marketing teams of these pioneering WiMax spectrum. If the T-Mobile-Sprint merger goes
operators from touting the fastest network based on peak through, the combined company will have a solid mid-
speeds at select locations that provide a clear line-of- band and low-band-based strategy with T-Mobile’s
sight to a 5G small cell radio. Does this metric signify 5G 600MHz spectrum.
success and value? Quite simply, no. The short of it from an operator’s perspective is that the
The run up to the first commercial showcase of 5G promises of eMBB, URLLC and mMTC will be difficult to
by Korea’s KT during the 2018 Winter Olympics in deliver near-term until technologies for standalone (SA)
Pyeongchang to the first commercial deployments earlier deployments become mature and implementations begin
this year has been about mmWave. Of the three 5G in the 2020 timeframe. This transformation of the core
spectrum tranches, mmWave is considered the band that network won’t happen overnight. Operators will need
delivers the bulk of the 5G promise. However, over the to reckon with their legacy infrastructure which will add
course of the last few months the limitations of mmWave complexity to their 5G transformation and make each
have come to light, most notably the lack of in-building operator’s 5G journey unique.
33
5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
MEANINGFUL 5G INNOVATION WILL OCCUR AT THE supply globally, suggesting that 5G will not necessarily
FOUNDATION drive industry innovation - innovative end user
There is no doubt that the 5G promise will eventually applications will drive the demand for 5G. This means
enable exciting end user applications in the form of that operators need to make careful decisions on where
new augmented media experiences and a slew of they invest in the next-generation network. Should
autonomous, connected things. While these aspirational they invest in mmWave? Mid-band or LPWAN for IoT
applications will benefit from 5G networks at some point (Internet of Things)? Should they invest in modernizing
in time, it is increasingly evident that we have a long the core network or the RAN? What is the optimal mix of
way to go before these applications themselves reach a investments? What will drive short-term and long-term
land. In terms of 5G innovation, the fundamental Based on neXt Curve’s research, the low-hanging 5G
challenge for operators and regulators is figuring out fruits for operators in the emerging and developing
where to invest across the wide palette of possibilities markets are coverage and quality of experience.
that is 5G. What will be valuable? What will generate Establishing the foundation for 5G will be essential by
revenue? What will generate a return? modernizing the network through virtualization (SDN/NFV)
For operators, the 5G revolution will start with the and supporting OSS/BSS for managing, orchestrating
network. Near-term, 5G will be about cost-effective and monetizing new virtual network services. These
expansion of capacity through enhanced Mobile investments should also provide a baseline of scalable
Broadband, which will provide improved quality of cost-efficiency and extensibility of the network to meet
experience to existing mobile and fixed broadband future demands for new 5G network and converged IT/CT
customers. The fact is that applications have not services. As operators evolve their networks with newer
emerged that are creating demand for Ultra Reliable Low 5G technologies on top of a 5G capability foundation,
Latency network services. Use cases such as AR and they will be able to quickly design and implement
VR have yet to move the needle, and the autonomous new business models through Agile and DevSecOps-
vehicle and accompanying smart infrastructure have yet enabled processes that will capitalize on the innovative
to materialize. Moreover, URLLC has proven to be much connectivity possibilities that 5G will bring about for
more difficult to implement and realize, especially on consumers, enterprises and governments.
34
5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
foster new business models and competitive dynamics can hold back not only 5G deployments but also 5G
to address challenges in coverage and access that many innovation? because the economics simply don’t work in
emerging and developing economies suffer. Regulatory the near term.
leadership, foresight and creativity that capitalizes on
In order for the economics of 5G to work, you need
new 5G possibilities will be vital in countervailing the
broad uptake of mobile devices - i.e. smartphones -
commercial proclivity toward profit that denies broadband
that are capable of running the applications driving the
availability to millions in difficult-to-serve areas.
digital economy. This was true for 4G as well; Uber
In particular, the rural broadband issue afflicts even was not made possible by of 4G - it was actually the
advanced markets such as the UK and US. Both the demand for data created by a small number of killer
FCC and Ofcom are opening up unlicensed spectrum - mobile applications that preceded Uber that compelled
for example, CBRS (Citizen Band Radio Service) in the operators to expand and improve the performance of
US - to incentivize small carriers and private entities their mobile wireless networks and innovate by investing
to provide broadband coverage in underserved areas. in 4G. Great examples of killer mobile applications that
Given that 3GPP Release 16 will support 5G NR (New drove 4G network demand are Google Maps, Skype,
Radio) for unlicensed spectrum, regulators will want FaceTime, Netflix and Facebook. It is important to
to consider leading practices in allocating unlicensed remind ourselves that these killer mobile applications
spectrum, as well as creative funding models that foster used to be applications and online services that we
new possibilities in spectrum sharing, coexistence, primarily accessed via the PC. Mobile computing and
crowd-sourcing and competition among carriers and the mobile network would not be what it is today without
private network operators. them.
DIGITAL ECONOMIC MATURITY IS A KEY DRIVER AND in the near term with 5G is the premium that 5G devices
CONSTRAINT OF 5G INNOVATION and services will command. Chip makers such as
Qualcomm and smartphone makers such as Samsung,
It goes without saying that not all economies are
Huawei and Apple will want to drive big margins from
equal. The reality is that most emerging and developing
early handsets to recoup their investments in the new
economies are resource and investment constrained
mobile network technology. Operators are also looking
in developing their ICT capabilities and infrastructure.
to drive a premium tariff for 5G mobile wireless services.
Economies such as the US, Japan and South Korea
are mature digital economies that generate tremendous According to the IMF, the average GDP per capita
domestic demand for ICT services. It is no surprise in emerging and developing economies was a mere
that these countries have been first to market with 5G 5,420 USD per year in 2018. Consider that the average
commercial deployments. Unfortunately, for many income per capita is typically lower than GDP per
emerging and developing economies, low digital maturity capita. Moreover, income inequality tends to be higher
35
5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
in emerging and developing economies. How many weaknesses, their spectrum holdings, and the nuances of
individuals in these markets will be able to afford a their local market to deliver value to their customers and
premium 5G smartphone for 1,300 USD or more, such to accelerate returns on their 5G investments. Examples
as Samsung’s S10 5G? Not many - unless one of the include Verizon with their mmWave first approach, AT&T
Chinese handset manufacturers such as Oppo or Xiaomi with LTE-A which they dubbed “5Ge”, and Sprint and
introduces 5G modems into a mid-range device in the PCCW with their mid-band strategies. It would be a
near future, which could be a possibility. mistake to think that there is a boilerplate approach and
deployment pattern that can be applied across the board
An IoT bright spot for 5G in emerging economies is smart
in every market - or even within a single market.
agriculture, which has the potential to revolutionize the
production of food globally. Not only are the economics All the challenges aside, the advent of 5G presents
of increasingly capable and durable IoT devices operators in emerging and developing markets with a
improving dramatically, but the deployment of LPWAN tremendous opportunity to reinvent their networks, create
technologies such as NB-IoT (Narrow Band Internet new services, invent new business models specific to
of Things) and SigFox is also expanding rapidly. The their market, and dramatically improve and scale their
favorable economics of the technology and the high-value operations to meet current and future demand for digital
of the 5G-enabled solutions make low-band, low-cost services. It may even be possible for some to leapfrog
IoT applications (such as smart agriculture) the ideal their more mature brethren over time. However, as we
starting point for driving new 5G revenue opportunities for are witnessing through the experiences of 5G pioneers,
operators - no highly-densified mmWave radio network a value-oriented strategy for 5G transformation and
needed here. reinvention will be vital for an operator to extract the
most benefit from their investment in the next-generation
At the end of the day, it is important for operators in
network whether they are in a developed market or an
emerging and developing markets to make the right bets
emerging one.ee9
with 5G. Operators need the right focus and sequence
of investments that consider the digital maturity of the
economies that they serve and their own readiness to
embark on their path of 5G transformation.
36
5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
Leonard Lee is the managing director and founder neXt Curve is a global research advisory firm
of neXt Curve, a research advisory firm focused on focused on cross-domain ICT industry and emerging
cross-domain ICT technology and industry research. technology research. neXt Curve’s mission is to
neXt Curve advises some of the leading technology inspire the digital future of forward-thinking, innovative
companies, strategy consultancies, private equity organizations in the public and private sectors. We
firms, regulators and enterprise end user organizations provide business insights, thought-leadership and
on critical digital topics and priorities of the day. leadership coaching to some of the world’s leading
companies, technology firms and regulators in the
With over 25 years of experience as a management
telecommunications, technology and media industries.
consultant and industry analyst, Mr. Lee is a former
neXt Curve’s independent research analysts and
managing partner with Gartner Inc. and partner/
consultants partner closely with their clients in
principal with IBM and PwC who has advised and
developing transformative strategies to reinvent
delivered emerging technology and digital business
their businesses, find new markets for their products
solutions to leading enterprises across a broad
and services, and address their most important
range of industries including entertainment & media,
organizational priorities.
telecommunications, financial services, energy,
pharmaceutical, and consumer and commercial high- Our research agenda is focused on identifying,
tech. Leonard has worked closely with numerous qualifying and quantifying the emerging market
Global 500 companies in driving business innovation opportunities and technology inflections in the greater
and value through the application of emerging digital ICT industry that occur at the nexus of business,
technologies and business reinvention. He has industry, process and technology. This approach
also advised leading technology firms with their go- enables us to bring a unique, holistic perspective to
to-market strategies for their digital products and our clients on how our digital economy is evolving
services. His specialties include IT & business strategy and creating new business and industry value, and
and governance, digital business innovation, market multifaceted insights into the technology and industry
strategy & analytics, emerging technology and ICT trends that are shaping our digital future.
industry research, business transformation & change
Our research focus areas are:
management, program management, enterprise
architecture and M&A/divestitures. · Digital Media & Telecommunications Convergence
Leonard is an executive fellow with the Drucker School · Convergence of IT and CT Technologies
of Management’s Center for the Future of Organization
· 5G Evolution & IoT End Markets
where he advises on research on digital transformation
and organizational change. Mr. Lee is an advisory · The Future of Cloud
board member of IoT Community, the world’s largest · Holistic Trust & Security
professional association of IoT practitioners where he
· Semiconductor End Markets
contributes thought leadership on IoT strategy and
business case development. He is also an influencer Visit us at www.next-curve.com to find out more about
on LinkedIn with over 180,000 followers and a network neXt Curve.
of over 9,000 Global 500 executives.
37
5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
Yet for many in developing markets, today’s reality is that accessing this
technology is nothing more than a dream. So, we need to be realistic about
how to create change in the markets in which we operate.
39
5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
SETTING THE FOUNDATION: THE ROAD TO 5G FOR Many elements of current 5G architectures build on
EMERGING ECONOMIES existing 4G networks. This has led us to take an
evolutionary approach toward upgrading our network
As an industry change catalyst, 5G can facilitate the rapid
infrastructure, with a focus on first improving the existing
development of economies by supporting a range of
experience as part of our efforts to become 5G-ready.
innovative use-cases from smart transportation systems
and remote surgery, and for distance education via In markets such as Indonesia, we have made significant
augmented and virtual reality (AR and VR). progress by first working to expand and strengthen
existing network coverage, updating our technology
With a presence across eight emerging markets, which
and adding base stations across the entire country. In
comprise over 90 per cent of our customer base, we at
Myanmar we’ve rolled out 4G+ in 224 townships across
Ooredoo are excited about this prospect. However, our
the nation, enabling over 16 million people to access high
immediate focus is on putting the right foundations in
speed internet services. These investments are a crucial
place.
step toward building 5G readiness.
40
5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
BEYOND ACCESS: DIGITAL SKILLS FROM 5G FIRSTS TO 5G-READY: BUILDING THE NETWOR-
KS OF THE FUTURE
Our investments in infrastructure and innovation are
pointless if we do not also work to bridge the digital In many of our markets, Ooredoo is the first telecom
divide. In emerging markets, we see there is a real risk operator to have launched initiatives towards 5G
that next generation technologies such as 5G could widen development, recognising the potential of 5G, which will
the existing digital divide rather than reduce it. unlock the next generation of wireless technology with
high speeds, ultra-low latency and greater capacities. The
In communities across our global footprint, one of the
emergence of 5G will unleash new possibilities in mobility,
biggest barriers to connectivity is a lack of digital literacy.
manufacturing, healthcare, transportation and several
This could potentially be exaggerated with the introduction
other industries.
of 5G technologies, limiting the benefits of these to a small
percentage of the population - namely those who have We are proud of the important progress made in our
the financial means and skills to access and utilise this home market of Qatar, where we launched the World’s first
technology. live, commercially available 5G network using the 3.5 GHz
spectrum band in May 2018, followed by demonstrations
In our markets Ooredoo works to reach underserved
of various 5G-enabled innovative use cases, from home
communities and help them access the technology which
broadband to aerial taxis later that year.
is all around them. As these new digital economies
emerge, we also recognise the importance of building
digital skills, so that people can benefit from the increased
opportunities afforded by these new technologies.
41
5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
This progress was mirrored by Ooredoo Kuwait, which launched SAFEGUARDING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
commercial 5G in June 2019, and Ooredoo Oman, where we are
Ooredoo’s roadmap toward 5G is underpinned by a long-term vi-
rolling out pre-5G technology following the successful expansion
sion to enable the delivery of universal and affordable broadband
of our high-speed 4G services to 90 per cent of the population.
to all.
When each market’s ecosystem is ready, these network evolutions,
By placing our customers at the center of everything we do and
supported by our digital transformation strategy, are the founda-
working alongside governments and other stakeholders, we are
tions that will enable our customers in all markets to experience
fully committed in delivering on the promise of next generation
the full potential of the internet.
networks. This technology will transform our customers’ digital
lives and enable access to the future services and support that
Sheikh Saud Bin Nasser Al Thani was appointed as Group Ooredoo is an international communications company
CEO of Ooredoo in November 2015. Sheikh Saud joined operating across the Middle East, North Africa and
Ooredoo in 1990. During his time at Ooredoo, he has Southeast Asia. Serving consumers and businesses
served as Assistant GM Human Resources, Director of in 10 countries, Ooredoo delivers the leading data
Internal Communications, and Executive Director, General experience through a broad range of content and
Services. services via its advanced, data-centric mobile and fixed
networks.
Sheikh Saud became CEO of Ooredoo Qatar in 2011.
He has led Ooredoo Qatar to build on its position as the Ooredoo is the first in the world to launch a 5G network
country’s preferred communications provider and has and is set to lead a global change as it rapidly rolls
supported its portfolio expansion. out 5G services in all its markets worldwide. To date,
Ooredoo has set up more than 70 live 5G sites in Qatar,
He has held key positions across the Ooredoo Group,
and has started to deploy 5G networks in Kuwait and
including Chairman of the Board for Ooredoo Kuwait;
Oman. Ooredoo is on a mission to empower customers
Deputy Chairman of Ooredoo Oman; and Board Member
across our global footprint to access and enjoy the best of
for Asiacell. He is also a Board Member for Arabsat;
the Internet in a way that is personal and unique to them.
Board Member for Hellas-Sat; and Board Member for
We continue to invest in our networks to ensure seamless
INJAZ Qatar.
connectivity that caters to our customers’ growing digital
needs and are working as a digital enabler across our
markets to help people simplify their lives and enjoy
exciting and rewarding digital experiences.
42
5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
In April 2019, the United States and Korea announced the commercial
use of 5G. In the same period, Swiss Telecom Europe announced that
44
5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
MASSIVE MIMO TO REALIZE EXPERIENCE In a typical urban area, the coverage rate is increased and
ACCELERATION
the user experience at the edge of the cell is improved.
In the 5G era, Massive MIMO technology will greatly In this scenario, ZTE adopts the diversity reception
improve user experience. The technology is adopted at and advanced receiver algorithm of Massive MIMO
the air interface to implement SDMA, maximizing the multi-antenna array for high-dimensional interference
cell throughput. Since 2014, ZTE has applied Massive cancellation to improve coverage at the cell edge. In
MIMO to commercial 4G networks, improving 4G network addition, ZTE recommends eight sets of preferential
capacity. After years of continuous optimization, ZTE is broadcast weight parameters to implement the optimal
a leader in the technology with five years commercial beamforming of broadcast bearers in the horizontal
practice. dimension and achieve wide coverage quickly. Field test
results show that the user rate of a 5G network for cell
In addition to Massive MIMO technology at the air
edge is 6 to 10 times higher than that of traditional 4G
interface, ZTE also provides parameter solutions for
macro base stations.
broadcast weight optimization in typical scenarios,
including CBD area, super large-capacity assembly/event SUPER LARGE-CAPACITY IT BBU SUPPORTS SERVICE
ACCELERATION
and common urban areas.
5G network virtualization has become an industry trend.
The CBD scenario requires high vertical coverage
By deploying different services on general servers,
and signal interference is high. In this situation, ZTE
virtualization not only achieves compatibility between
recommends 10 sets of preferred broadcast beam
devices of different manufacturers but also effectively
parameters to quickly meet coverage requirements.
reduces hardware investment costs. Network virtualization
Through adaptive broadcast weight parameters, the
is a long process, including core network virtualization,
capacity of a 5G network is over three times that of a
central equipment room device virtualization, and BBU
common 4G macro cell.
virtualization.
The super large-capacity assembly/event scenario
So far, ZTE has implemented core network virtualization
has a large population density, large data volume, and
and central equipment room device virtualization. How is
population distribution changes greatly. In this scenario,
BBU device virtualization implemented? ZTE proposed
in addition to improving the cell capacity with Massive
the service acceleration concept and launched the IT
MIMO, ZTE also recommends three sets of broadcast
BBU based on the ZTE LitePaaS platform. This IT BBU
weight preference parameters to adapt to the population
adopts the third-generation baseband processing chip
distribution change. When a sports event is held, users
developed by ZTE. It features ultra large capacity, high
are concentrated in the stands, while during a concert,
reliability, low delay and light weight. In addition to the
users are concentrated in the venue center. Through
2/3/4/5G multimode base station function, it can also
weight adjustment, target users can be covered in
open the remaining resources of the IT BBU to third-party
different scenarios. Test results show that the cell capacity
application software through new functional modules, so
of the 5G network is three to six times higher than that of
that it can become an edge server. In this way, the 5G
the traditional 4G macro base station.
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
virtualized core network function can be moved to the ABOUT THE AUTHOR
edge equipment room.
Alex Wang is Managing Director of 5G RAN
IT BBU’s capability openness is based on the ZTE Solutions at ZTE Corporation. Through close
LitePaaS platform, which is the most lightweight PaaS engagement with global operators, his team helps
platform in the industry. It is real-time and highly reliable, to identify the strategic 5G RAN technology and
and third-party services can be flexibly deployed and solutions for global markets. Prior to his current
expanded on demand. At present, ZTE IT BBU supports role in 5G, he spanned various areas of mobile
service applications such as GPS location function, CU communications, from network architecture and
function and AI function. technology strategy to business analysis and
consulting.
ZTE has taken the lead in implementing AI-based fast
broadcast weight matching and fast network load Before joining ZTE, Alex Wang worked for a
balancing in the IT BBU to ensure the low delay of Singaporean mobile network operator where
independent network learning and intervention. The he was instrumental in the development of
verification result shows that the number of high-load multiple mobile data services. As a veteran
carriers in the existing network is reduced by 25%. of the telecommunications industry, Alex is a
frequent speaker at global mobile conferences
5G is on. ZTE is committed to accelerating the
and events. Alex Wang graduated with a master's
commercial use of 5G networks and opening up a new era
degree in Electrical Engineering from National
of IoE with its innovative technologies.
University of Singapore, focusing on wireless
communications.
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
In the mobile sector (both for 4G and emerging 5G versions), we are already
familiar with concepts such as virtual network operators (MVNOs) which
Dean Bubley can allow extra reach to particular consumer or business customer groups.
DISRUPTIVE ANALYSIS On the technology side, many are also discussing innovations like network-
Mobile Technology & Futurism slicing and virtualised/cloud radio networks (vRAN & cRAN) for forthcoming
Analyst / Consultant
5G deployment. Again, these involve shared infrastructure and back-end
platforms.
There are several ways of building and operating NHNs (see below), but all
are essentially shared RAN-as-a-Service operations, enabling better or wider
cellular connectivity in locations that are uneconomic (or too complex) for
traditional MNOs to build individually. Instead, an NHN builds a network (with
or without its own spectrum), and other operators either roam onto it, or used
its shared infrastructure and management for their own radios.
While most key enablers and drivers of NHN are radio-related (such as small
cells and suitable local spectrum), other factors are also important, such as the
availability of backhaul, good planning tools, cloud-based core networks, new
funding sources and appropriately-skilled staff.
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
NHN USE CASES The most important use cases for NHN deployment are:
NHNs have many possible applications, with a common · Rural / remote areas, which are often low down on
theme of improving 4G/5G networks in areas with existing MNOs’ priority lists when starting to build out a new
poor coverage, or extending into new areas that lack it generation of mobile technology.
altogether. While this mostly reflects challenging build-out
· Urban centres needing 4G/5G RAN densification,
economics or restrictions on accessibility (for example
especially where it is hard to obtain suitable cell-sites.
inside buildings), an important secondary motivation is
a desire by property owners or government authorities · In-building / on-premise coverage for large sites such
for more control - and ideally monetisation – of wireless as schools, shared office-space, entertainment venues,
penetration. While broad use of mmWave spectrum (such multi-network coverage to be important, as connected
as 24-28GHz or above) is unlikely in many developing vehicles may use any MNO’s services.
nations, we may well see a desire to use other common · Industrial sites and transport hubs, which may start
5G bands such as 3.4-3.8GHz, which will also struggle to with private networks, but then want to deal with inbound
penetrate into brick or stone structures, or extend widely roamers from public networks as well.
across sparsely-populated districts.
· Temporary sites and events, such as cultural events and
In addition, early 5G network equipment is likely to be major civil-engineering projects
costly. Given that some markets have an ARPU (average
revenue per user) of well below $5 per month, it will be
hard to justify broad build-outs of networks for individual Clearly, the siting, economics, and backhaul/connectivity
operators working on their own. While some nations are requirements of each of these domains vary widely – and
examining the potential for single, shared, nationwide many will overlap with other trends. Some will be oriented
wholesale networks, others want to retain more towards consumer mobile broadband, others towards
competition and flexibility. fixed-broadband access, and yet more around various
classes of IoT.
NHNs offer the scope for network-sharing where it makes
most sense – but do not preclude individual MNOs from For instance, some local government authorities - already
differentiating with their own network infrastructure where looking at the business case for smart-city infrastructure
they can justify it. and fibre networks - are starting to include NHN
opportunities alongside connecting traffic/security control,
or broadband for hospitals and universities.
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
In some cases, 4G NHNs will be sufficient for several on machine-vision for production systems, or autonomous
years to come, while in others there may be an argument fork-lift trucks, but could also support employees &
to go straight to 5G. visitors' 5G smartphones roaming onto its local network.
(An alternative is that a normal MNO could build coverage
In developing markets, it seems likely that indoor
in the factory, providing a private “slice” to the enterprise).
coverage, and perhaps rural area NHNs, will be most
important in the medium-term, although exceptions in the At the moment, few developing markets have the
other categories will undoubtedly occur as well. types of innovative “local mobile spectrum licensing”
approach that are starting to be seen in places like
the US, UK, HK or Germany. However, international
NHN DEPLOYMENT SCENARIOS regulatory organisations such as ITU are discussing it
There are several types of NHN architecture and business more, along with a standards development around “non-
model emerging, plus a number of other similar or public networks”. Hopefully the upcoming WRC-19
adjacent approaches. The two most important are: conference will recognise the need for innovation in this
fashion, as it can be a meaningful contributor to mobile
· Multi-Operator Small Cell as a Service (SCaaS), where
rollout, coverage ubiquity, economic development, and
the NHN does not have its own spectrum. This can either
competition.
use multiple 4G/5G small cells with shared backhaul,
or a single small cell virtualised and supporting multiple It is also worth noting that this trend is not occurring in
MNOs' frequency bands. This model could be particularly isolation. NHNs are evolving in parallel with a few other
relevant for large indoor facilities that will struggle with alternatives such as national roaming, network-sharing,
coverage / capacity, and where the venue-owner does not or government-run/funded wholesale cellular networks.
have its own expertise to manage cellular infrastructure While all these are important and may have roles to play in
such as distributed antenna systems. many countries, they cannot easily solve all the problem
areas identified above. For instance, government-run
· Spectrum-based NHNs, where the provider is a
wholesale networks still often have challenges with
wholesale-oriented MNO in its own right, with its own
indoor deployments, and may also lack the financing and
radio resources (shared or dedicated) and network,
commitment needed for deep rural coverage.
hosting other MNOs & SPs as tenants. In some markets,
this is being explored for rural mobile deployment, and is In some countries there is a major focus on 4G/5G
also high on the agenda for some large property owners networks along main transport routes. Where this uses
able to obtain spectrum. high frequencies, it is unlikely that all MNOs will be
able to build out coverage independently; some form
An additional model is for "pure" private 4G/5G networks,
of network sharing will be essential. Various trials are
typically run by an enterprise for its own internal IoT or
examining NHN as a suitable approach, albeit not the
voice applications, again in localised spectrum, to also
only one.
offer NHN capabilities as a secondary function. For
instance, a 5G-enabled factory may have a primary focus
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
Neutral Host Networks and other sharing models will overlap for many use cases
Rural
Indoor(commercial)
Industrial
Metro Densification
Road rail
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
INFRASTRUCTURE AND SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS FOR cases, it may be possible to use high-capacity microwave
NHNS or mmWave for backhaul, but Disruptive Analysis expects
Creating an NHN is not as simple as, say, deploying fibre to predominate in most cases, at least to “hub”
Wi-Fi in a building. Ultimately, these are forms of cellular locations for shared 5G.
network, with all the technological capability – and As well as physical infrastructure, there is a considerable
complexity – that entails. While they may be easier to build range of software and cloud-based elements involved
than a full national network, the multi-tenancy capabilities as well. Core networks are becoming cheaper – and
pose new challenges, and there are fewer engineers (or increasingly cloud-based – and SIM/eSIM management is
regulators) familiar with the sector. also becoming more productised. How wholesale billing
NHNs typically use small cells, rather than large towers and charging is conducted will depend on the precise
or roof-mounted macro antennas. For indoor use, the nature of the NHN, and its relationships with its retail
partly dictated by the availability of suitable wiring. But It seems likely that an array of third-parties will be involved
for wide-area NHNs, especially those focused on rural in building an overall NHN solution, perhaps including
deployments, there will need to be full consideration given telcos and MNOs as outsourcers or managed service
to the backhaul and transport infrastructure. In some providers for certain aspects.
Many technology elements needed to create & operate Neutral Host Networks
COre
Content &
network
app partners
(EPC or NC)
Backhaul / Physical
Small Cells, Roaming & design,
WiFi, Transpot Internet-
Network integrate &
cabling connect build
For example how will realtime charging, bundled content, voice calls
or network slicing work while a user roams onto a neutral host?
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
NHN models are driven by multiple technical & business trends & requirements
Mostly being
3.5GHz, mmWave, deployed outdoors & by indoor
bad for outdoor-to-indoor neutral-host for MNOs
coverage & rural
(local)
Verticalss’ need
WiFi limits (eg mobility)
New applications &
opportunities for NHN,
spectrum
indoor, roadside
& rural wirless models Allowing enterprise to
build private networks, or
new shared/neutral SPs
Dean Bubley and Disruptive Analysis have extensively researched the marketplace for NHNs, examining
accelerants and obstacles, and what opportunities that provides for adjacent SPs and other companies.
If this area is of potential relevance, please contact information at disruptive-analysis.com for detail about
workshops and advisory engagements
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
Dean Bubley (@disruptivedean, www.deanbubley.com His present focus is on 5G network technology, WiFi,
) is the founder of Disruptive Analysis, an independent spectrum policy, eSIM, blockchain & distributed
technology industry analyst and consulting firm based ledgers, the “future of voice and video”, messaging
in London. An outspoken analyst & futurist with over 25 & conversational commerce, mobile broadband,
years’ experience, he specialises in mobile / telecoms developer platforms, edge-computing and contextual
fields, with an eye on the broader technological and communications. He also advises on wider trends in
societal contexts into which they fit. He is one of the the evolution of cross-sector technologies like AI, IoT,
leading market observers and forecasters covering automation and technology regulation/policy.
network infrastructure & software, telecom business
Mr Bubley was formerly an equity analyst, covering
models, voice/video communications and broadband/
communications stocks, with the UK arm of investment
spectrum policy.
bank Robert W. Baird. Prior to that, he spent eight
He is known as a contrarian and visionary, often years at UK research firm Datamonitor, where he co-
with challenging opinions that go against industry founded the company's Technology business, managed
consensus. Speaking at over 30 conferences and the Internet & Networking area and custom consulting
other events per year, and quoted by publications operations, with roles of Chief Analyst & Director of
such as The Economist, FT & Wall Street Journal, he Consulting. He holds a BA in Physics from Keble
is an authority and influencer. He regularly appears in College, Oxford University.
technology industry videos, podcasts and blogs.
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
In many rural areas of the United States, you often run across
green bumper stickers that say, “No farms, No food.” The saying
from the American Farmland Trust points to the fact that if there’s
one thing every human being can agree on it’s that we all need to
eat. Agriculture is important to everyone’s wellbeing.
Much has been written about the digital divide, and usually when
it comes to connectivity, rural areas have been given short shrift.
Although virtually all urban areas are connected, creating the
Dan Kurschner infrastructure to bring Internet connectivity to every resident of
CISCO
Technical Storyteller on high-speed internet connections for real-time data uploads and processing
in the cloud. Without broadband, agriculture can’t move forward with their
own “digital transformation” and take advantage of data from sensors or other
technology that requires the Internet of Things (IoT). Although many people
don’t think about big data in terms of farming, every planting date, seed,
raindrop, soil test result, and location in a field represents a data point that
could be analyzed. Today’s farmers may read about new tech like robots, self-
driving tractors, or drones, but without connectivity, none of it can happen.
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
At the government-funded Agricultural Engineering Farmed salmon is the UK’s largest food export by value
Precision Innovation Centre in Shepton Mallet, a farm and a major contributor to the economy. So keeping the
has put 5G collars and tags on one-third of their 180 salmon industry competitive and sustainable is important.
diary cows. Using the connected collars, the farmer can The Scottish Sea Farms operate a salmon farm in Scapa
keep track of the eating pattern, rumination, fertility, and Flow in the Orkney Islands and 5G RuralFirst is working
day-to-day health of each specific cow. The collar also with the farmers to deploy oxygen sensors and video
detects when an individual cow ovulates, so the farmer technology to help improve efficiency and automation.
can optimize the timing of insemination, maximize the
The salmon farms are located off-shore and the farm
potential for pregnancy, and milk yield.
infrastructure is subject to the Orkney weather and
The 5G smart collars also help automate milking by the movement of waves. The mobile communications
wirelessly communicating with a robotic milking system. technology that has been deployed overcomes these
Without any human intervention, cows can walk up to the challenges. Sensors in the water measure salinity,
milking station and hook up to the milking robot. As a cow temperature, oxygen, and help determine the best times
steps into one of the robotic milkers, sensors recognize to feed the fish. The automatic feeding systems work
the animal, record her health and fertility status and know using a Wi-Fi network over a 5G connection, with four
how much milk she is expected to give. The robotic feeders running at once.
system also provides the cow with a food reward.
The ability to monitor the health of fish remotely using
The second phase of the connected cow project adds a sensors is an ideal test case for 5G technology. The higher
pedometer that will help score the mobility of each cow. bandwidth and low latency of 5G means it takes less time
Ideally, cows should lie down and rest for 10-14 hours per for data to transfer back and forth, which is important for
day. Getting enough rest reduces the risk of lameness, remote monitoring.
increases blood flow to the udder, and decreases stress
hormones. Not surprisingly, healthy well-rested cows
HEALTHY FOOD IS GOOD FOR EVERYONE
produce more milk. With the pedometer tags, farmers will
gain better visibility into the health of their cows, so they Technology that can monitor the health of animals and
can better manage the herd. their environment makes it easier for farmers to keep
track of their health and welfare, even over large remote
Using 5G, data is picked up directly from the sensors on
areas. This tracking is good for the welfare of the animals,
the cows, bypassing the need for a desktop computer on
but also benefits farmers economically. And of course, it
the farm. The data goes directly to the cloud where it can
benefits those of us who want to eat good, healthy food.
be combined with other relevant data and sent to farm
Bringing enhanced mobile connectivity to underserved
staff. With 5G, this data round trip takes only milliseconds,
rural areas not only reimagines the agriculture industry, it
so the staff can make instant, informed decisions about
can improve the quality of life for both animals and people.
the welfare and management of their cows.
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5G IN EMERGING MARKETS
5G RuralFirst shows us that we can and should develop Dan Kurschner is the 5G and SP Mobility
5G technologies across the rural areas of the US and Marketing lead in Cisco Global Service Provider
other countries. The project introduced innovative 5G Marketing. With more than 30 years of experience
stand-alone service at fractions of the cost of traditional in telecommunications and networking, he is
mobile networks. New virtualized and cloud-native responsible for the creation of Cisco’s 5G Mobility
solutions along with advanced automation greatly reduce vision, strategy, and product information. When
how long it takes to implement services and the total not engaged in work, he enjoys being with his
cost of ownership. For more information about the 5G friends and family as well as bicycling, tennis,
RuralFirst project, 5G, and related topics please visit: Pilates, drawing, photography and culinary arts.
• www.cisco.com/go/mobile
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