Birla Institute of Technology & Science, Pilani

Work Integrated Learning Programmes Division

Decision Analysis

Digital Learning Handout

Course Title Decision Analysis

Course No(s) MBA ZG535/ MM ZG535 / QM ZG535
Credit Units Four
Credit Model 3+1+0
Instructor-In-Charge PB Venkataraman
Version Number REV 05
Date 23-Dec-2018

Course Objectives:
 We make decisions every day. Some decisions are routine but some have a profound impact on
our life.
 Gaining competency in such a vital subject is highly desirable both for personal and
professional wellbeing.
 The objective of this course is to provide an opportunity to gain this mastery: to be able to
achieve clarity of action in making any decision on which we focus our attention.

Text Book(s):
T1 Michael A. Roberto., The Art of Critical Decision Making, Audible.com, 2013.
T2 Harvard Business Essentials: Decision Making – 5 steps for better results, Harvard Review
Business Press, 17 June 2010.
T3 Ronald A.Howard., Ali E.Abbas., Foundations of Decision Analysis (eLibrary)

Reference Book(s) & other resources:

R1 On Making Smart Decisions, Harvard Business Review., 2013
R2 Ralph L.Keeney., Value-Focused Thinking, Harvard University Press, 1996.
R3 Alternatives: The Source of Superior Solutions, HBR, 2006.
R4 Diagnosing Your Decision, How To Make Smarter Decisions, HBR, Nov-2013.
R5 James Surowiecki, The wisdom of crowds, Little Brown Book Group, Mar-2005.
R6 J Edward Russo and Paul J.H. Schoemaker., Decision Traps – The Ten Barriers to Brilliant
Decision-Making And How To Overcome Them, Fireside Simon & Schuster Inc., 1st
edition., 1990.
 LEARNING OUTCOMES

LO1 Explain the fundamentals of decision making process and define the quality of a
decision.

LO2 Relate to the cognitive biases and interpret one’s decision objectively.

LO3 Apply methods to reduce the impact of cognitive biases in organization and personal
decisions.

LO4 Lead teams in decision making.

LO5 Select appropriate decision making tool and apply it in a given situation.

Experiential Learning Components:

1. Lab work: ‘Judgement in Crisis’, Everest V2, Harvard Business Publishing.

2. Project work: None.
3. Case study: Columbia space shuttle disaster, Bay of Pigs & Cuban Missile Crisis
4. Work integrated Learning Exercise: None.
5. Design work/Field work: None.

Content Structure:

Contact List of Topic Title Sub-Topics Reference

Hour
 Course detailing Lecture slides
Introduction to the  Decision notations –
1-2
Course Descriptive, normative,
actional thought.
 Brilliant blunders T1, Lecture slides,
3-4 Qualifying a decision  Common misconception Recorded videos
 Factors impacting a decision
 How we decide Lecture slides,
(Neurobiology) Recorded videos
 Evolution of decision http://gocognitive.net
5-6 Heuristics
making (Heuristics)
 Tacit knowledge
 Gut feelings (Gerd Gigerenzer)
 Risk & uncertainty Lecture slides
 Intuitive & Rational decision
7-8 Deciding to decide making
 Harvard model for decision
making
  Anchoring T1, T2
 Status-Quo [Columbia disaster
 Sunk-Cost case study,
 Confirming evidence Mount Everest
Decision traps – tragedy case study]
9-12
Cognitive biases  Framing
 Estimating & forecasting
 Overconfidence
 Prudence
 Recallability
 Simulation exercise - HBP-7077-HTM-
13-14 Judgement in Crisis
Debriefing ENG
15-16 Decision framing
 Framing a decision T2
 Addressing the right problem
 Objectives & alternatives Lecture slides, R3
Alternatives, Values,
17-20 Information &
 Value focused thinking
Reasoning  Smart information
 Case based reasoning
Data Analytics –  Simulation exercise - HBP 7050-HTM-
21-22 Strategic decision Debriefing ENG
making
 Wisdom of crowds R5
Team decision
23-24
making
 Psychological safety
 Group think
 Simulation exercise - HBP 7000-HTM-
25-26 Everest V2 ENG
Debriefing
 Role of ethics in decision Lecture slides
Ethical decision making
27-32
making  Ethical distinctions
 Ethical situations

Project Activity/ Experiential Lab:

Case Case study Objective Case study

study No Sheet Access
URL
1 Discuss cognitive biases during critical decision making –
Columbia disaster.
2 Discuss importance of decision framing – Mount Everest
tragedy.

Evaluation Scheme:

Legend: EC = Evaluation Component; AN = After Noon Session; FN = Fore Noon Session

Evaluation Name Type Weight Duration Day, Date, Session, Time
 Component (Quiz, Lab, Project, Mid- (Open
term exam, End semester book,
exam, etc.) Closed
book,
Online,
etc.)
EC - 1 Simulation lab – Judgement Online 10% 7 days After session 12
in crisis [Individual exercise]
Simulation lab – Business Online 10% 7 days After session 20
analytics – Strategic decision
making [Individual exercise]
Simulation lab - Team Online 10% 7 days After session 24
Decision Making – Everest
V2 [Group exercise]
EC - 2 Mid-sem Closed 30% 2 hours Friday, 09/10/2020 (FN)
book 10 AM - 12 Noon
EC - 3 Comprehensive Open book 40% 3 hours Friday, 27/11/2020 (FN)
9 AM – 12 Noon

Syllabus for Mid-Semester Test (Closed Book): Topics in Contact Hours: 1 to 16

Syllabus for Comprehensive Exam (Open Book): All topics
Important links and information:
Elearn portal: https://elearn.bits-pilani.ac.in
Students are expected to visit the Elearn portal on a regular basis and stay up to date with the
latest announcements and deadlines.
Contact sessions: Students should attend the online lectures as per the schedule provided on the
Elearn portal.
Evaluation Guidelines:
1. EC-1 consists of either two Assignments or three Quizzes. Students will attempt them
through the course pages on the Elearn portal. Announcements will be made on the
portal, in a timely manner.
2. For Closed Book tests: No books or reference material of any kind will be permitted.
3. For Open Book exams: Use of books and any printed / written reference material (filed or
bound) is permitted. However, loose sheets of paper will not be allowed. Use of
calculators is permitted in all exams. Laptops/Mobiles of any kind are not allowed.
Exchange of any material is not allowed.
4. If a student is unable to appear for the Regular Test/Exam due to genuine exigencies, the
student should follow the procedure to apply for the Make-Up Test/Exam which will be
made available on the Elearn portal. The Make-Up Test/Exam will be conducted only at
selected exam centres on the dates to be announced later.
It shall be the responsibility of the individual student to be regular in maintaining the self-study
schedule as given in the course handout, attend the online lectures, and take all the prescribed
evaluation components such as Assignment/Quiz, Mid-Semester Test and Comprehensive Exam
according to the evaluation scheme provided in the handout.
 Instructor-in-charge

(MBA ZG535 / MM ZG535 / QM ZG535)