25 330.

33
30 334.54
35 359.78 20-year Term-Life Policy Cost
40 432.36 4500
45 619.42 4000
50 918.91 3500
y = 42.007e0.0657x
55 1455.34 3000

Annual Premium
60 2492.43 2500
2000
65 4172.01
1500
1000
500
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Age

0.0657x
      2500 = 42.012e .
0.0657x
59.5 = e
ln 59.5 = 0.0657x
4.086 = 0.0657x
62.19 = x or 62-years old
Year US national debt US national debt since 1930
30 16.19 20000

US national debt ($1,000,000,000)

40 42.97
18000
50 257.3
16000
60 286.3
70 370.9 14000 y = 2.1483e0.0789x
80 907.7 12000
90 3,233 10000
100 5,659 8000
105 7,918
6000
110 13,551
4000
115 18,138
2000
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Year (1900 = 0)

Use the function to predict the national debt for 2017. Look up the actual debt and compare it with the prediction from the regression function.

Using the function the predicted national debt for 2017 would be 21,938 trillion dollars

On 09/30/2017 www.treasurydirect.gov reported the national debt to be 20,244 trillion dollars

Use the function to predict when the national debt will reach 30 trillion dollars.

Based on the function the national deb t will reach 30 trillion dollars around the year 2021 (120.967) end of 2020
.
Population Year
Population of Jasmine, New Mexico
1,250 40
3,300 50 120

6,600 60
12,000 70 100
21,000 80
30,000 90
80
45,000 100

Year (y= 40 = 1940)

60,000 110
60

40
y = 6.1015x0.2608

20

0
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
Population

Use the function to predict when the population was 50,000. Comment on what the equation predicted and the population that year according to the chart.

The approximate year the population was at 50,000 people was in 2002 (2002.548)

Use the function to predict what the population is in 2017.

The predicted population in 2017 would be 82,892 people

Age Premium Liniar Prediction Exponential Prediction
55 $1,455.00 $1,348.00 $1,558.00
60 $2,492.00 $2,706.00 $2,495.00
65 $4,172.00 $4,064.00 $4,224.00

Annual Premiums (Exponential) Annual Premiums (Linear)

$4,500.00 $4,172.00 $4,500.00 $4,172.00

$4,000.00 $4,000.00

$3,500.00 $3,500.00

$3,000.00 $3,000.00

Annual Premium
Annual Premium

$2,492.00 $2,492.00
$2,500.00 $2,500.00

$2,000.00 $2,000.00
$1,455.00 $1,455.00
$1,500.00 $1,500.00
y = 4.45e0.1053x
$1,000.00 $1,000.00
y = 271.7x - 13596
$500.00 $500.00

$0.00 $0.00
54 56 58 60 62 64 66 54 56 58 60 62 64 66
Age Age

Which regression would be better to predict the annual premium for a sixty-four old-old person, and why? Answer in complete sentences.

Exponential, would be the more accurate projection because it follows the data points more consistantly, which should project the most accurate predictions.

Which regression would be better to predict the annual premium for a twenty-seven year-old person, and why? Answer in complete sentences.

Exponetial, would also be the best to determine the premiums for a 27 year old a liniar regression line would not predict the correct numbers for the data. The data for a 27 year old using the liniar regression would give us a negitive number.
 Math 1090 Exponential and Logarithmic Project

Example: The table below gives the annual premiums required for a $250,000 20-year term-life insurance policy for nonsmokers of different ages. ( https://www.valuepenguin.com/average-cost-life-insurance)
Annual
premium
Age
for 20-
year
$330.33
25 year olds
.
$334.54
30 year olds
$359.78
35 year olds
$432.36
40 year olds
.
$619.42
45 year olds
$918.91
50 year olds
.
$1455.34
55 year olds
.
$2492.43
60 year olds
$4172.01
65 year olds

a.      
Use Excel to create a scatter plot of this data. Enter the minimum age in Column A and the premium in Column B. Highlight all the data and click the scatterplot icon in the Charts section of the Insert tab.

Click the chart when it is created to show the green plus in a box by the top-right corner of the chart. Click this to make a place to enter the Axis Titles, and to have Excel draw the proper Trendline. Click the triangle after Trendline and choose More Options . . . then select the Exponential option. Scroll to the bottom of the panel on the right and check Display Equation on chart.

b.     
Excel gives the continuously compounded exponential equation
y = 42.012e 0.0657 x
with the rate of increase in the exponent. If this were given as annually compounded increase, the equation would be
=y 42.102 (1 + 0.0679
. The rate )ofxincrease is slightly different for continuous and annual compounding, but the results are essentially the same.

20-year Term-Life Policy Cost

1

0.8
annual premium

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
age
c.       Use the equation to predict annual premium for a 20-year term-life insurance policy for a 45-year old person: y = 42.012e 0.0657 × 45 = $807.91. This prediction is about 30% more than the actual price paid by a 45-year old person. This difference between the actual value and the predicted value from the regression equation is called the residual. The regression equation is the result of mathematically minimizing the residuals of all the data values to a f

0.0657x
      2500 = 42.012e .
0.0657x
59.5 = e
ln 59.5 = 0.0657x
4.086 = 0.0657x
62.19 = x or 62-years old

Assignment

For this project you will look at the 3 regression problems that follow. Work each of the 3 problems on a separate tab in Excel that is labeled appropriately. You should also use borders and shading options to present your tables neatly and organized. It is left for you and your creativity to make the work space visual appealing and easy to read. After completing all portions of this project save the worksheet in CANVAS to be evaluated.

US
national
year debt
($1,000,0
00,000)
1930 16.19
1940 42.97
1950 257.3
1960 286.3
1970 370.9
1980 907.7
1990 3,233
2000 5,659
2005 7,918
2010 13,551
2015 18,138
1.      The data at the right gives the US national debt in billions of dollars since 1930.*

a.       Use Excel to make the scatterplot letting the year x = 30 represent the year 1930. Which regression model is suggested: Exponential, Linear, Logarithmic, Polynomial, Power or Other?

b.      Have Excel find the regression function that best models the data.

c.       Use the function to predict the national debt for 2017. Look up the actual debt and compare it with the prediction from the regression function.

d.      Use the function to predict when the national debt will reach 30 trillion dollars.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States#/media/File:USDebt.png

Population Year
1,250 1940
3,300 1950
6,600 1960
12,000 1970
21,000 1980
30,000 1990
45,000 2000
60,000 2010
2.      The table at the right gives the approximate population of Jasmine, New Mexico, in the given years.

a.       Use Excel to make the scatterplot showing the population as thousands of people and letting y = 40 represent the year 1940. Which regression model is suggested: Exponential, Linear, Logarithmic, Polynomial, Power or Other?

b.      Have Excel find the regression function that best models the data.

c.       Use the function to predict when the population was 50,000. Comment on what the equation predicted and the population that year according to the chart.

d.      Use the function to predict what the population is in 2017.

3.      Look back at the table in the example that give the annual premiums for a $250,000 20-year term-life insurance policy.

a.       Use Excel to make a scatterplot for just the 55-, 60- and 65-year olds only.

b.      Have Excel draw the linear regression line and give the linear equation.

c.       Compare the actual premiums with the linear egression and the exponential regression by completing the table.

d.      Which regression would be better to predict the annual premium for a sixty-four old-old person, and why? Answer in complete sentences.

e.       Which regression would be better to predict the annual premium for a twenty-seven year-old person, and why? Answer in complete sentences.
function.