Decision Making Tools
Decision Making Tools
Decision Matrix
Example
A caterer needs to find a new supplier for his basic ingredients. He has four options.
Cost.
Quality.
Location.
Reliability.
Payment options.
Firstly he draws up the table shown in figure 1, and scores each option by how well it
satisfies each factor:
Figure 1: Example Decision Matrix Analysis Showing Unweighted
Assessment of How Each Supplier Satisfies Each Factor
C
Payment
Factors: o Quality Location Reliability Total
Options
st
Weights:
Supplier 1 1 0 0 1 3
Supplier 2 0 3 2 2 1
Supplier 3 2 2 1 3 0
Supplier 4 2 3 3 3 0
Next he decides the relative weights for each of the factors. He multiplies these by the
scores already entered, and totals them. This is shown in figure 2:
Reliabilit Payment
Factors: Cost Quality Location Total
y Options
Weights: 4 5 1 2 3
Supplier 1 4 0 0 2 9 15
Supplier 2 0 15 2 4 3 24
Supplier 3 8 10 1 6 0 25
Supplier 4 8 15 3 6 0 32
This makes it clear to the caterer that Supplier 4 is the best option, despite the lack of
flexibility of its payment options.
Key Points
Decision Matrix Analysis helps you to decide between several options, where you need
to take many different factors into account.
To use the tool, lay out your options as rows on a table. Set up the columns to show the
factors you need to consider. Score each choice for each factor using numbers from 0
(poor) to 5 (very good), and then allocate weights to show the importance of each of
these factors.
Multiply each score by the weight of the factor, to show its contribution to the overall
selection. Finally add up the total scores for each option. The highest scoring option will
be the best option.
While this sounds complex, this technique is actually quite easy to use. Here's a step-by-
step guide with an example. Start by downloading our free worksheet. Then work through
these steps.
Step 1
List all of your options as the row labels on the table, and list the factors that you need to
consider as the column headings. For example, if you were buying a new laptop, factors to
consider might be cost, dimensions, and hard disk size.
Step 2
Next, work your way down the columns of your table, scoring each option for each of the
factors in your decision. Score each option from 0 (poor) to 5 (very good). Note that you do
not have to have a different score for each option – if none of them are good for a particular
factor in your decision, then all options should score 0.
Step 3
The next step is to work out the relative importance of the factors in your decision. Show
these as numbers from, say, 0 to 5, where 0 means that the factor is absolutely unimportant
in the final decision, and 5 means that it is very important. (It's perfectly acceptable to have
factors with the same importance.)
Tip:
These values may be obvious. If they are not, then use a technique such as Paired
Comparison Analysis to estimate them.
Step 4
Now multiply each of your scores from step 2 by the values for relative importance of the
factor that you calculated in step 3. This will give you weighted scores for each option/factor
combination.
Step 5
Finally, add up these weighted scores for each of your options. The option that scores the
highest wins!
Tip:
If your intuition tells you that the top scoring option isn’t the best one, then reflect on the
scores and weightings that you’ve applied. This may be a sign that certain factors are
more important to you than you initially thought.
It is a widely used technique for taking crucial decisions like project selection, cost management,
operations management, production method, and to deal with various other strategic issues in
an organization.
Terminologies Used
Let us understand some of the relevant concepts and terms used in the decision tree:
Root Node: A root node compiles the whole sample, it is then divided into multiple sets
which comprise of homogeneous variables.
Decision Node: That sub-node which diverges into further possibilities, can be denoted
as a decision node.
Terminal Node: The final node showing the outcome which cannot be categorized any
further, is termed as a value or terminal node.
Branch: A branch denotes the various alternatives available with the decision tree maker.
Splitting: The division of the available option (depicted by a node or sub-node) into
multiple sub-nodes is termed as splitting.
Pruning: It is just the reverse of splitting, where the decision tree maker can eliminate
one or more sub-nodes from a particular decision node.
1. The first step is understanding and specifying the problem area for which decision making
is required.
2. The second step is interpreting and chalking out all possible solutions to the particular
issue as well as their consequences.
3. The third step is presenting the variables on a decision tree along with its respective
probability values.
4. The fourth step is finding out the outcomes of all the variables and specifying it in the
decision tree.
5. The last step is highly crucial and backs the overall analysis of this process. It involves
calculating the EMV values for all the chance nodes or options, to figure out the solution
which provides the highest expected value.
ABC Ltd. is a company manufacturing skincare products. It was found that the business is at the
maturity stage, demanding some change. After rigorous research, management came up with
the following decision tree:
In the above decision tree, we can easily make out that the company can expand its existing unit
or innovate a new product, i.e., shower gel or make no changes.
If the company invests in the development of its business unit, there can be two possibilities,
i.e.:
40% possibility that the market share will hike, increasing the overall profitability of the
company by ₹2500000;
60% possibility that the competitors would take over the market share and the company
may incur a loss of ₹800000.
To find out the viability of this option, let us compute its EMV (Expected Monetary Value):
If the organization go for new product development, there can be following two possibilities:
50% chances are that the project would be successful and yield ₹1800000 as profit;
50% possibility of failure persists, leading to a loss of ₹800000.
Do Nothing:
If the company does not take any step, still there can be two outcomes, discussed below:
40% chances are there that yet, the organization can attract new customers, generating a
profit of ₹1000000;
60% chances of failure are there due to the new competitors, incurring a loss of ₹400000.
Interpretation
From the above evaluation, we can easily make out that the option of a new product line has the
highest EMV. Therefore, we can say that the company can avail this opportunity to make the
highest gain by ensuring the best possible use of its resources.
Conclusion
In operations research, decision tree analysis holds an equal significance as that of PERT
analysis or CPM. It presents a complex decision problem, along with its multiple consequences
on paper.
This enables the decision-maker to figure out all the possible options available with him/her and
thus, simplifies the task.
How to Use Multivoting
LIst all of the possible choices that the team must decide from.
Take the total number of team mates that will be voting (n) and divide by 3. This gives you the
number of votes (v) each person gets.
o Ex. 12 team members / 3 = 4.
Each person has those v number of votes to place on any of the options.
o A team member may put all of their votes on one topic or distribute them as they see fit.
o Ex. Mary puts 2 votes into option A, 1 vote on option B, and 1 vote on option C.
While Bob puts all 4 votes on option C.
Tally the votes.
The option with the most votes is the most preferred by the group.
Multivoting Videos
2. The items can be ranked on a priority basis using the set number as
the highest rank. In the example the participants would be required
to rank the most important option as 12.
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With that done, its time to tally the votes, and add up the totals to
see how much each option has scored. After the tally, the list needs
to be recompiled. For this it’s best to keep only the top 30-40%
options that have scored the highest, on the new revised list.
With the new list in hand; the procedure will need to be repeated
until finally the list has condensed down to no more than 3 options.
As a final step the final options are discussed and analyzed to assign
each of them a priority.
Although the multivoting technique involves a lengthy procedure, it proves to
be of great benefit in situations where there are too many options and the
situation demands a consensus over the final decision.
Imagine if you’ve undertaken a massive project that you had assumed would deliver
significant improvements to your organization. However, before you started you hadn’t taken
the time to work out what those benefits are, what impacts they would have and importantly
whether they outweigh the costs of implementation and sustainment?
You could find out that you’ve spent a significant amount on something that hasn’t helped
your business.
To mitigate this, most organizations utilize something called the Cost-Benefit Analysis
process, which calculates the financial benefit based on a series of inputs (namely all one-off
and recurring costs plus all one-off and recurring benefits). Subtracting the total costs from
the total benefits gives you the impact of the project in financial terms to your business.
Utilizing Cost-Benefit Analysis is very common and it’s typically undertaken at the very start
of a project (usually to determine if it’s worthwhile progressing).
In this post, we’ll look at how to create a Cost-Benefit Analysis template in Excel plus look at
the background of the process together with a few things to watch out for to ensure your
process is optimized.
So let’s get stuck in.
3/ Costs
OK – so now we have our table established, now we’ll start on populating the information we
want in the costs section: – here we’re going to split the element into several sections that
are relevant to our business/project (again results may differ for your project). We’ve split
them into
· Capital costs
· Recurring costs
· Financing costs
At the foot of this section of the table (we’ve shaded it in green) we’ve added a total column
that you can use the SUM() formulae to calculate each row,
What’s key here is that the table is segmented how you want to view your costs in relation to
your project/business – note we’ve chosen types of costs – you might want to segment parts
of your project i.e. hardware, software, resources or maybe align it to how your business
typically reports its finances, the choice is yours.
4/ Benefits
Now we’ll add the benefits – in much the same way as we added costs we’ll define the
benefits in how we want to see them – here we’ve chosen to have just one group – again
you may chose to visualize them differently.
Once again we’ve totaled them at the bottom of the table element ( again highlighted in
green).
5/ Net Cash Flow (in yellow on our example).
This row looks to calculate the benefit (or otherwise) of your project and should represent
Total Benefit – Total Cost
6/ Discount rate & NPV
I’m not going to go into detail here on how this is calculated (you can go here or here for
that) – or even say you should definitely include this section (there are pro’s/cons). However,
for completeness, I’ve added this to our template. Its purpose is to show the financial benefit
at today’s rate (i.e discounted from assumed growth of later periods. We’ve included the
following in this section
· Discount rate – what rate we’re applying to later year totals
· Discount factor – the % discount rate for each year
· Discounted cash flow – the actual benefits calculated using the above
· NPV – the NPV for the series of years being calculated
Let’s assume a scenario where a product marketer needs to measure the impact of
individual product features on the estimated market share or sales revenue.
In this conjoint analysis example, we’ll assume the product is tablets, perhaps a competitor
to the Apple iPad and Samsung Galaxy. The organization needs to understand how different
customers value Attributes such as Size, Brand, Price, and Battery Length. Armed with this
information, they can create their product range to match consumer preferences.
Conjoint Analysis assigns values to these product Attributes and Levels by creating realistic
choices and asking people to evaluate them. Math is then used to calculate what the
underlying values are.
Conjoint Analysis
Conjoint Analysis enables businesses to mathematically analyze consumer or client
behavior and make decisions based on real insights from customer data. This allows them to
better cater to consumer needs and develop business strategies that provide a competitive
edge. To fulfill customer wishes in a profitable way requires companies to fully understand
which aspects of their product and service are most valued by the customer.
Reliable, accurate data gives your business the best chance to produce a product or service
that meets all the needs and wants of your customers.
Each participant is shown several choices of products or features. The answers they give
allow our software to work out the underlying values. For example, the program can work out
what their preferred size is, and how much they would pay for their preferred brand. Once
we have the choice data, there is a range of analytic options. The key tools for analysis
include What-if modeling, forecasting, segmentation, and applying cost-benefit analyzes.
The central idea is that for any purchase decision, consumers evaluate different
characteristics of a product and decide which are more important to them. The primary aim
of an online conjoint survey is to set distinct values to the alternatives that the buyers may
consider when making a purchase decision. Equipped with this knowledge, marketers can
target the features of products or services that are highly important and design messages
more likely to strike a chord with target buyers.
The discrete choice conjoint analysis presents a set of possible choices to consumers via a
survey and asks them to make a decision on which one they would pick. Each concept is
composed of a set of attributes (e.g. color, size, price) which are detailed by a set of levels.
Conjoint models predict respondent preference. For instance, we could have a conjoint
study on laptops. The laptop can come in 3 colors (white, silver, and gold), 3 screen sizes
(11”, 13”, and 15”), and 3 prices ($200, $400, and $600). This would give 3 x 3 x 3 possible
product combinations. In this example, there are 3 attributes (color, size, and price) with 3
levels per attribute.
A set of concepts, or tasks, based on the defined attributes are presented to respondents.
Respondents make choices as to which product they would purchase in real life. It is
important to note that there are a lot of variations of conjoint techniques. QuestionPro survey
software uses choice-based analysis, which most accurately simulates the purchase
process of consumers.
Levels: The specifications of each attribute. Examples of levels for Laptops include Brands:
Samsung, Dell, Apple, and Asus.
Task: The number of times the respondent must make a choice. The example shows the
first of the 5 tasks as indicated by “Step 1 of 5.”
Concept or Profile: The hypothetical product or offering. This is a set of attributes with
different levels that are displayed at each task count. There are usually at least two to
choose from.
Relative importance: Also known as “attribute importance,” this depicts which of the various
attributes of a product/service are more or less important when making a purchasing
decision. Example of Laptop Relative Importance: Brand 35%, Price 30%, Size 15%, Battery
Life 15%, and Color 5%.
Profiles: Discover the ultimate product with the highest utility value. At a glance,
QuestionPro lets you compare all the possible combinations of product profiles ranked by
utility value to build the product or service that the market wants.
Market share simulation: One of the most unique and fascinating aspects of conjoint
analysis is conjoint simulator. This gives you the ability to “predict” the consumer’s choice for
new products and concepts that may not yet exist. Measure the gain or loss in market share
based on changes to existing products in the given market.
Brand Premium: How much more will a customer pay for a Samsung versus an LG
television? Assigning price as an attribute and tying that to a brand attribute returns a model
for a $ per utility distribution. This is leveraged to compute the actual dollar amount relative
to any attribute. When the analysis is done relative to the brand, you get to put a price on
your brand.
Price elasticity and demand curve: Price elasticity relates to the aggregate demand for a
product and the shape of the demand curve. We calculate it by plotting the demand
(frequency count/total response) at different levels of price.
For example, each product or service has a specific set of fictional characters. Some of
these characters might be similar to each other or will differ. For instance, you can present
your respondents with the following choice
Device 1 Device 2
6.7-inch Quad HD Super AMOLED Display 6.67-inch Quad HD AMOLED Display
Qualcomm Snapdragon 855 chipset Qualcomm Snapdragon 855 chipset
6GB RAM, 128 GB Storage 6GB RAM, 128 GB Storage
Dual rear camera (12MP+16MP) Triple rear camera (48MP+8MP+16MP)
4,000 mAh battery with 30w Dash Charging 2800mAh/3700mAh batteries
The devices are almost identical, but device 1 has triple cameras with better configuration,
and Device 1 has a higher battery power compared to Device 2. By analyzing the
responses, you would know how vital is the trade-off between the number of cameras and
battery capacity.
For example, the adaptive conjoint analysis is a graded-pair comparison task, wherein the
survey respondents are asked to assess their relative preferences between a set of
attributes. Each pair is then evaluated on a pre-defined point scale.
QuestionPro uses CBC, or Discrete Choice Conjoint Analysis, which is a great option if the
price is one of the most important factors for you or your customers. The key benefit of the
method is that it provides a picture of the market’s willingness to make tradeoffs between
various features. The result is an answer to what constitutes an “ideal” product or service.
Level-up Conjoint Analysis insights
Conjoint delivers realistic and actionable insights
Conjoint is just a piece of the insights pie. Capture the full story with a cohesive pricing,
consumer preference, branding, or go-to-market strategy using other question types and
delivery methodologies to stretch the project to its full potential. With QuestionPro, you are
able to build and deliver comprehensive surveys that combine conjoint analysis results with
insights from additional questions or custom profiling information included in the survey.
We’re asked this question a lot. So much so that we’ve coined the term Conjoint O’ Clock. If
you find yourself needing to get into the mind of your customers to understand why they buy,
ask yourself what you hope to get from your insights. It’s time for Conjoint O’ Clock if you are
trying to:
Conjoint Algorithm
To calculate the utility values or part-worths, we use a logic model coupled with a Nelder-
Mead Simplex algorithm. The benefit of this algorithm allows QuestionPro to offer a cohesive
and comprehensive survey experience all within one platform.
We understand that most businesses don’t need the complex details of our mathematical
analysis. However, we want to provide you with the transparency you need to use conjoint
survey results. Have confidence in your results by reviewing the algorithm below.
Notation:
For a simple choice between two concepts, with utilities U1 and U2, the multi-nominal logit
(MNL) model predicts that concept 1 will be chosen
Let the choice probability (using MNL model) of choosing the cth concept in the tth task for the
r th respondent be:
Log-Likelihood Measure