Paper 1 PDF
Paper 1 PDF
Abstract: Traditionally, the impacts of traffic and earthquake loading have been considered independently when assessing bridge reliability.
This paper presents a framework for joint seismic and live-load fragility assessment of highway bridges. Full probabilistic analyses accounting
for variation in bridge parameters, ground motion, and truck load and position are proposed to develop bridge system fragility curves and to
identify the critical truck position that renders the bridge most vulnerable to earthquakes. A fragility surface is derived for the critical truck
position at which the failure probability is conditioned on the governing vehicle weight in addition to ground motion intensity, thus depicting
the impact of truck load on bridge seismic fragility. This fragility surface is convolved with the governing vehicle weight distribution (obtained
from weigh-in-motion data) and probability of truck occurrence (function of truck flow rate) to determine traffic-informed conditional seismic
reliability estimates. The proposed methodology is demonstrated on a case study of a multispan continuous steel girder bridge in the central and
southeastern United States. The framework can find ready extensions to assess the joint impact of earthquake and live loads for other bridges and
hazard conditions and can offer a basis for deriving reliability-based load combinations consistent with emerging trends in bridge design. DOI:
10.1061/(ASCE)BE.1943-5592.0000535. © 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Author keywords: Bridge engineering; Fragility analysis; Seismic reliability; Live-load reliability; Multihazard threat; Joint seismic and
live-load reliability.
This work proposes a general framework in which site-specific tensity measure IM; and SC and bC 5 median and dispersion
traffic characteristics can be coupled with conditional seismic re- estimates of the component capacity, respectively.
liability estimates to arrive at traffic-informed seismic fragility Bridge system-level fragility is derived assuming the bridge as
curves reflecting the likelihood of truck presence. This framework a series system wherein failure of a single component is represen-
should find ready application by practitioners for more refined tative of bridge failure (Nielson and DesRoches 2007b; Nowak and
seismic assessment of problem bridges, offer guidance for risk Cho 2007). Distribution parameters are estimated following a Monte
analysts regarding the relative importance of considering simulta- Carlo simulation from the PSDM and capacity estimates to arrive at
neous live loads and earthquakes, and even form a basis for deriv- the overall bridge system-level fragility
ing load factors for LRFD. " #
Finally, the proposed framework is applied to an example bridge lnðPGAÞ 2 ln medsys
and traffic stream, both to illustrate its application and to discover
P DSsystem PGA ¼ F (3)
dispsys
indicators of the general phenomenon. Whereas previous research
has thoroughly investigated the impact of earthquake load on the
response of critical bridge components, the proposed framework is where medsys and dispsys 5 median values (in units of g) and
used to assess if superimposed truck live-load contributes further to logarithmic standard deviations of the system fragilities; and
their seismic vulnerability. DSsystem 5 system-level damage state of interest.
lution of the densities. Vehicles have a minimum length within distribution fQ will, in general, be a mixed distribution (Benjamin
which no arrival can occur, including the physical length and and Cornell 1970), including a discrete probability of there being no
a minimum gap that drivers will keep in jammed conditions, as- live load present and the spectrum of probabilities of the differing
sumed to be about 2 m. Denoting this length D, then the actual gap live-load magnitudes. Hence, for traffic-informed seismic fragility
distribution is assessment, the unconditional probability should ideally be com-
puted after accounting for live load as
gD ðxÞ ¼ gðx 2 DÞ (6) ð
PðDSjPGAÞ ¼ PðDSjPGA, qÞ × fQ ðqÞdq (10)
Haight (1963) provides the general result for n vehicles. For
simplicity, however, the presence of one truck at a time on the bridge
is slightly overestimated by neglecting multiple truck presences in
the same lane and writing Representation of Live Load
The live load of Eq. (10) should be representative of the actual traffic
Pðone truckÞ 1 2 Pðno trucksÞ (7) at the site. The live-load models of many codes of practice are
notional only and are commonly calibrated to reflect load effects and
For the lengths and densities considered in this paper, the prob- not the actual magnitude of the load itself. Finally, as noted earlier,
ability of occurrence of two or more trucks in the same lane are the increasingly wide availability of WIM data suggests that a single
successively orders of magnitude less than the probability of one truck, representative of the traffic at the site, may be easily derived
truck, and so Eq. (7) is a slight overestimation, because it includes for ease of applicability of the general framework. Therefore, it is
these probabilities in the one-truck probability. Consequently, from assumed for the present purposes that the live load at the site can be
Haight (1963) represented by a single truck. In making this representation, it is
assumed that there is negligible influence on the seismic fragility of
the variability in truck geometry, namely, number of axles, axle
G½1, mðL 2 DÞ Gð0, mLÞ
Pðone truckÞ ¼ 1 2 2 (8) spacings, and other factors. Importantly though, the representative
Gð1Þ Gð0Þ truck can be assigned a gross vehicle weight (GVW) histogram
representative of all traffic at the site.
where Gðn, xÞ 5 upper incomplete gamma function; GðnÞ 5 complete Other representations of live load are clearly possible, such as a
gamma function; L 5 length of the bridge; and m 5 mean truck uniformly distributed force or mass of random magnitude. Indeed,
density in trucks=m ðr 3 1023 Þ. The assumptions underlying Eq. (8) the equivalent uniformly distributed loads of some codes of practice
have been tested using a Monte Carlo simulation of a heterogeneous may be attractive in this regard. However, preliminary investigations
traffic stream based on the model described in O’Brien and Caprani
(2005). It is found that Eq. (8) offers a slightly conservative esti-
mation of the probability of occurrence of a truck on a length of road
given a truck flow rate and velocity distribution. As such, this model
is deemed appropriate for modest truck flows and bridge lengths
under about 100 m.
This discussion relates to one traffic lane only. If it is assumed
that the truck arrivals in adjacent lanes are independent [and there is
some evidence to suggest that they are not, but the correlation is
generally weak (O’Brien and Enright 2011)], then the probability of
one truck being present on multiple lanes is found from Eq. (8) using
the combined truck density across the lanes.
Fig. 1 shows the variation of the probability of the presence of one
truck by flow rate for different bridge lengths. It can be seen that the
probability is more sensitive to bridge length than truck density
and may be reasonably well approximated by straight line fits enve-
loped by
Finally, some further simplifications are made for the live-load nerable multispan continuous (MSC) steel-girder bridge is chosen,
model. It is assumed that the superimposed truck is stationary at constituting 11.6% of bridges in the region (Wright et al. 2011).
a random location on the bridge during the earthquake. Future re- Regional traffic characteristics are taken from 11 WIM sites in
search can investigate the impact of the moving vehicle or bridge- Alabama. The following sections will describe the finite-element
vehicle interaction on seismic bridge fragility. Although convolution bridge-modeling approach and the site-specific traffic model adopted
on truck position is possible, the truck is conservatively assumed for this study.
in this paper to be positioned to give the critical fragility of interest
(for either a single component or the system). As will be shown Seismic Hazard [Input A (Fig. 2)]
later, however, the seismic fragility is more sensitive to the truck
presence than the location of the truck, so this conservative location A total of 96 two-component ground motions are used from the
is not a gross simplification. Wen and Wu (2001) and Rix and Fernandez (2004) synthetic
ground motion suites in this study for the fragility analysis and
impact assessment of truck load on bridge seismic vulnerability.
Convolution for Traffic-Informed Seismic Fragility These ground motions are representative of a range of potential
ground motions for the CSUS region and have been extensively
The assumption of a single representative truck for the site-specific
used in the past for fragility analysis of pristine, retrofitted, or
live-load model is reasonable for lengths less than about 100 m and
aging highway bridges located in these regions (Nielson and
thus covers many bridges. Eq. (10) can therefore be adapted to read
DesRoches 2007a; Padgett and DesRoches 2009; Ghosh and
PðDSjPGAÞ ¼ PðDSjPGA, truckÞ × PðtruckÞ Padgett 2010).
Fig. 2. General framework for joint seismic and live-load fragility assessment: (a) site data and derived inputs; (b) calculation procedure for joint
seismic and live-load fragility assessment
Fig. 3. Case-study MSC steel girder bridge adopted in this study; the truck image is an adaptation of the conventional 18-wheeler truck diagram by
Padleckas (2011; used under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike Unported 3.0 license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/
deed.en)
Traffic data typical of the CSUS is obtained from a regional network The variation in bridge system fragility with truck location is
of 11 WIM stations across northern Alabama, with 21.4 million assessed for 18 locations of 2.90 m increments: Load Cases 1–18
trucks recorded. In this database, 45% of all trucks are the standard [Fig. 6(a)]. The symmetry of the bridge about the centerline averts
American 18-wheeler, making it the most common type of truck by the need to redo the computationally expensive bridge fragility
far. It is termed a WB-20 by Transportation Research Board (2003) analysis for the WB-20 moving in the opposite direction. The fully
and is a Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Class 9 vehicle, loaded truck GVW mode of 35.4 t [Fig. 5(b)] is used in this stage of
subtype S3 (FHWA 2011b). The geometric configuration of the the analysis [Fig. 6(a)], but the impact of different truck GVWs will
truck does not have much variability, and therefore, truck traffic is be found in the next section. Corresponding to each truck position, as
represented by a WB-20 truck with an associated GVW distribution.
The configuration of this truck is arrived at through a study of the
modes of the distributions of the relevant parameters and is given in
Fig. 4. For example, Fig. 5(a) shows the histogram of the percentage
of the GVW carried by the rear axle tandem, from which the mode
gives 42.5%, which is similar to that found from the legal limits
(FHWA 2011a). Fig. 5(b) gives the histogram of GVW for all WB-
20 trucks recorded. It shows two modes at 17 and 35 t, representing
empty and fully loaded trucks (partial loads are inefficient and so are
fewer), with a GVW range of approximately 10–55 t.
The CSUS representative bridge length is 66.9 m, and a 20 m
length for the WB-20 truck plus 2-m full-stop bumper-to-bumper
minimum gap (Caprani 2012) gives D 5 22 m. Therefore, for a free-
flow speed of 80 km=h (about 50 mi=h), the probabilities of one
truck occurring, from Eq. (8), are 4.4% for 80 trucks=h (truck density
of 1 truck=km) increasing to 16.4% for 320 trucks=h ð4 trucks=kmÞ.
These can be estimated from Fig. 1, in which the case-study bridge
length is given along with alternative lengths.
The location of the WB-20 truck and its GVW are random param-
eters, and the impact of these factors on the bridge fragility is
assessed. Whereas system-level fragility estimates are developed for
various locations of the WB-20 truck across the bridge deck, the
Fig. 6. (a) Different WB-20 truck locations investigated in this study (ranging from Load Case 1 to 18) to assess the impact on bridge system fragility
[the truck image is an adaptation of the conventional 18-wheeler truck diagram by Padleckas (2011), used under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share
Alike Unported 3.0 license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/deed.en]; (b) median values of bridge system fragility for the stand-alone
bridge with no superimposed truck and Load Cases 1–18; note that Load Case 5 leads to the highest change in median values and hence corresponds to
the most unfavorable truck position
bent along the longitudinal direction compared with that of the stand-
creased superimposed truck load. The smoothness of the fragility
alone bridge. Although Load Case 5 results in the maximum increase
surface and lack of discontinuities impart confidence in the 10-t
in the seismic demand of critical bridge components, leading to the
increments of truck GVW adopted in this study to develop the
highest reduction in the median value of bridge fragilities [Fig. 6(b)],
fragility surface.
a steady increase in seismic demand of these components attrib-
utable to superimposed truck load is observed for all load cases
(Load Cases 1–18).
Joint Seismic and Live-Load Fragility Assessment
Under the methodology explained earlier, a joint seismic and live-
load assessment is made for a one-lane bridge assuming a truck
density of 4 trucks=km, for which Eq. (8) gives the probability
of occurrence of one truck to be 16.4%. Fig. 9(a) shows the fragi-
lity curves for the cases: (1) no truck is present [PðDSjPGA, no truckÞ],
representing current practice; (2) one truck is present [PðDSjPGA,
truckÞ] with GVW histogram given by Fig. 5(b), found using
Eq. (12); and (3) the probabilistic presence of a random truck,
PðDSjPGAÞ, which uses the fragility curve from Eq. (11) [see also
Eq. (12)], as well as uncertainty in truck GVW. The median
fragilities for these cases are: (1) 0.514 g, (2) 0.481 g, and (3)
0.508 g, showing reductions of 6.33 and 1.07% for Cases 2 and 3
from the no-truck case.
Finally, to assess the influence of traffic flow variation across the
region, the change in fragility percentiles with truck density can be
ascertained, and the results are shown in Fig. 9(b). In this figure, the
reductions in the median and 95th-percentile PGAs are shown to
increase with increasing truck density. They are also quite similar,
suggesting a shift in the fragility curve, rather than a change in its
dispersion. However, the reductions are quite small. Further, it must
be recalled that it is assumed that the truck is located at the most
unfavorable position, and so, the real reduction could be smaller.
Although the previous sections demonstrated that the presence of
a truck atop the bridge deck may cause appreciable changes in
fragility relative to the no-truck case, after accounting for the GVW
distribution and truck density, the impact is found to be negligible for
the present investigation.
Conclusions
Fig. 8. (a) Case-study bridge system-level fragility curves for different GVWs of the WB-20 truck positioned at Load Case 5 location; (b) interpolated
three-dimensional fragility surface depicting the joint impact of the PGA of seismic shaking and truck GVW on bridge system fragility
An example bridge and a large database of real traffic are used to loading is considered. However, the increased fragility (reduced
demonstrate the approach for the CSUS region. A WB-20 truck is median PGA) can be small once the probabilities of truck pre-
found to be representative of the truck traffic and is used to assess the sences and GVWs are taken into account. Indeed, unless the site-
influence of the presence of a single truck on the seismic fragility. A specific GVW distribution is significantly different from the
representative seismically vulnerable MSC steel-girder bridge from present case study, even for high flow rates, the truck traffic does
the region is also used. It is found that the median value of bridge not have a significant effect on the seismic fragility. It should be
seismic fragility reduces by between 5 and 10% when a truck with noted that only one-truck presences are considered in this work,
a modal GVW of 35.4 t is present at any random location on the and the truck is considered to be positioned at the determined
bridge. This median PGA depends on the location of the truck on the critical location for the duration of the earthquake. In reality, the
bridge, and a critical position of the truck partially on the exterior probability of the truck being at this location could also be con-
and interior spans is identified. For this location, it is found that the sidered, as well as other variables such as the duration of its tra-
median PGA reduces approximately linearly with increasing truck verse, the position of the truck at the time of arrival of the
GVW, yielding a reduction of about 14% for a truck of 60 t GVW earthquake, the dynamic interaction of the moving truck with the
relative to the conventional case where truck loads are neglected. bridge, and finally the height of the truck GVW above the bridge
Consideration of the regional GVW histogram, given the truck deck. Notwithstanding these possible refinements, the presented
presence, leads to a reduction in median PGA of about 6% compared methodology provides a basis for incorporating the considera-
with that of the bridge alone. Finally, for the bridge and traffic tion of truck loads in the seismic fragility estimation of bridges.
studied using the proposed methodology, even for heavy truck Further studies are required to explore the generalization of these
flows, the median PGA is reduced by less than 2%. conclusions to other bridge geometries and traffic loading con-
It is clear from the results presented in this work that it is like- ditions. Additionally, this framework can offer the basis for future
ly that bridges are more fragile during a seismic event if traffic investigation of reliability-based load factors for the case of
Nowak, A. S., Park, C. H., and Casas, J. R. (2001). “Reliability analysis of static procedure for fragility curve development.” J. Eng. Mech.,
prestressed concrete bridge girders: Comparison of Eurocode, Spanish 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9399(2000)126:12(1287), 1287–1295.
Norma IAP and AASHTO LRFD.” Struct. Saf., 23(4), 331–344. Straub, D., and Der Kiureghian, A. (2008). “Improved seismic fragility
O’Brien, E. J., and Caprani, C. C. (2005). “Headway modelling for traffic load modeling from empirical data.” Struct. Saf., 30(4), 320–336.
assessment of short to medium span bridges.” Struct. Eng., 83(16), 33–36. Transportation Research Board. (2003). Review of truck characteristics as
O’Brien, E. J., and Enright, B. (2011). “Modeling same-direction two-lane factors in roadway design, National Cooperative Highway Research
traffic for bridge loading.” Struct. Saf., 33(4-5), 296–304. Program, Washington, DC.
OpenSees 2.4.3 [Computer software]. Berkeley, CA, Pacific Earthquake Wen, Y. K., and Wu, C. L. (2001). “Uniform hazard ground motions for
Engineering Research Center. Mid-America cities.” Earthq. Spectra, 17(2), 359–384.
Padgett, J. E., and DesRoches, R. (2007). “Bridge functionality relation- Wright, T., DesRoches, R., and Padgett, J. E. (2011). “Bridge seismic
ships for improved seismic risk assessment of transportation networks.” retrofitting practices in the central and southeastern United States.”
Earthq. Spectra, 23(1), 115–130. J. Bridge Eng., 10.1061/(ASCE)BE.1943-5592.0000128, 82–92.