CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT Ceng 5204

HAWASSA UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT

OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

Refisa Jiru HAW/2192/07

 CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT Ceng 5204

1) You are given the following information about a project consisting of six activities:

Activity Predecessors Estimated duration

A 5 months

B 1 months

C B 2 months

D A,C 4 months

E A 6 months

F D,E 3 months

(a) Construct the project network for this project.

(b) Find the earliest times, latest times, and slack for each activity. Which of the paths is

a critical path?

(c) If all other activities take the estimated amount of time, what is the maximum

duration of activity D without delaying the completion of the project?

Solution

Fig. 1 Network diagram

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ii. Earliest Time Determination

Step 1: E(0) = 0

Step 2:

j = 1 : E(1) = Max{E(0) + D01} = Max{ 0 + 5 } = 5

j = 2 : E(2) = Max{E(0) + D02} = Max{0 + 1} = 1
j = 3 : E(3) = Max{E(1) + D13; E(2) + D23} = Max{5 + 0; 1 + 2} = 5
j = 4 : E(4) = Max{E(1) + D14; E(3) + D34} = Max{5 + 6; 5 + 4} = 11
j = 5 : E(5) = Max{E(4) + D45} = Max{11 + 3} = 14

❑ Thus, the minimum time required to complete the project is 14months since E(5) =
14months. In this case, each event had at most two predecessors.

iii. Latest Time Determination

Step 1 L(5) = E(5) = 14

Step 2:

j = 4 : L(4) = Min {L(5) - D45} = Min {14 - 3} = 11

j = 3 : L(3) = Min {L(4) - D34} = Min {11 - 4} = 7

j = 2 : L(2) = Min { L(3) - D23} = Min {7 - 2} = 5

j = 1 : L(1) = Min {L(3) - D13; L(4) - D14} = Min {7 - 0; 11 - 6} = 5

j = 0 : L(0) = Min {L(2) - D02; L(1) - D01} = Min {5 - 1; 5 - 5} = 0

❑ In this project, E(0) = L(0), E(1) = L(1),E(4) = L(4),and E(5) = L(5). As a result nodes are
in the critical path. Activities on the critical path include A (0,1), E (1,4) and F (4,5).

iv. Free Float Determination

FF(i.j) = E(j)-E(i)-Dij

A : E(1) - E(0) - D01 = 5 - 0 - 5 = 0

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 CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT Ceng 5204

B : E(2) - E(0) - D02 = 1 - 0 - 1 = 0

C : E(3) - E(2) - D23 = 5 - 1 - 2 = 3

D : E(4) - E(3) - D34 = 11 - 5 - 4 = 2

E : E(4) - E(1) - D14 = 11 - 5 - 6 = 0

F : E(5) - E(4) - D45 = 14 - 111 - 3 = 0

v . Independent Float Determination

0
IF(i.j) = 
E(j) - L(i) - Dij

A : IF (0,1) = 5 - 0 - 5 = 0

B : IF(0, 2) = 1 - 0 - 1 = 0

C : IF (2,3) = 5 - 5 - 2 = 0

D : IF (3,4) = 11 - 7 - 4 = 0

E : IF(1,4) = 11 - 5 - 6 = 0

F : IF(4,5) = 14 - 11 - 3 = 0

B-C-D-F path is overcritical path since activity C has negative float

vi. Slack (Total Float) Determination

TF(i.j) = L(j) - E(i) - Dij

A: L(1)-E(0)-D01= 5-0-5 = 0

B: L(2)-E(0)-D02= 5-0-1 = 4

C: L(3)-E(2)-D23= 7-1-2 = 4

D: L(4)-E(3)-D34= 11-5-4 = 2

E: L(4)-E(1)-D14= 11-5-6 = 0

F: L(5)-E(4)-D45= 14-11-3 = 0

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The maximum amount of time that you can delay an activity D ad still finish the project in

shortest time possible is 2months. Delaying an activity D more than 2months will delay

entire projects.

2) Ato Abera kassa, president of AK con Construction, is considering placing a bid on a

building project. Bill has determined that five tasks would need to be performed to carry

out the project. Using the PERT three-estimate approach, Abera has obtained the

estimates in the next table for how long these tasks will take. Also shown are the

precedence relationships for these tasks.

Time Required

Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Immediate

Task Estimate Estimate Estimate Predecessors

A 3 weeks 4 weeks 5 weeks

B 2 weeks 2 weeks 2 weeks A

C 3 weeks 5 weeks 6 weeks B

D 1 weeks 3 weeks 5 weeks A

E 2 weeks 3 weeks 5 weeks B,D

There is a penalty of Birr 500,000 if the project is not completed in 11 weeks. Therefore,

Abera is very interested in how likely it is that his company could finish the project in

time.

(a) Construct the project network for this project.

(b) Find the estimate of the mean and variance of the duration of each activity.

(c) Find the mean critical path.

(d) Find the approximate probability of completing the project within 11 weeks.

(e) Abera has concluded that the bid he would need to make to have a realistic

chance of winning the contract would earn AKcon. Construction a profit of about birr

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 CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT Ceng 5204

250,000 if the project is completed within 11 weeks. However, because of the penalty for

missing this deadline, his company would lose about birr 250,000 if the project takes more

than 11 weeks. Therefore, he wants to place the bid only if he has at least a 50 percent

chance of meeting the deadline. How would you advise him?!

Average time duration (te)

to  4tm  tp
te 
6
Standard deviation (te)

tp  to
 te 
6

Variance ()

   te 2

Time Required
Average
Immediate Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
Task duration Variance(2)
Predecessors Estimate Estimate Estimate
time(Te)
(Week) (Week) (Week)

A 3 4 5 4 0.111

B A 2 2 2 2 0

C B 3 5 6 4.83 0.25

D A 1 3 5 3 0.444

E B,D 2 3 5 3.17 0.25

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Fig 2. Network diagram

ii. Earliest Time Determination

Step 1: E(0) = 0

Step 2:

j = 1 : E(1) = Max{E(0) + D01} = Max{ 0 + 4 } = 4

j = 2 : E(2) = Max{E(1) + D12} = Max{4 + 2} = 6
j = 3 : E(3) = Max{E(1) + D13; E(2) + D23} = Max{4 + 3; 6 + 0} = 7
j = 4 : E(4) = Max{E(2) + D24; E(3) + D34} = Max{6 + 4.83; 7 + 3.17} = 10.83

❑ Thus, the minimum time required to complete the project is 10.83 weeks since E(4) =
10.83 weeks. In this case, each event had at most two predecessors.

iii. Latest Time Determination

Step 1 L(4) = E(4) = 10.83

Step 2:

j = 3 : L(3) = Min {L(4) - D34} = Min {10.83 - 3.17} = 7.66

j = 2 : L(2) = Min { L(3) - D23, L(4) - D24 } = Min {7.66 - 0, 10.83 - 4.83} = 6

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 CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT Ceng 5204

j = 1 : L(1) = Min {L(2) - D12; L(3) - D13} = Min {6 - 2; 7.66 - 3} = 4

j = 0 : L(0) = Min {L(1) - D01} = Min {4 - 4} = 0

From calculated earliest time E(ij) and latest time L(ij) for all activities critical
path is A-B-C with a project duration of 10.83 weeks

Standard deviation along critical paths

 ( criticalpa th)   ij

2
 0.361  0.6008

Where,

 ij  0.111  0  0.25  .0.361

2

The probability of completing project within 11 weeks is given by, P(Z< Zo)

To find Zo

TS  TE
Zo 


When TS =11 Weeks and TE=11.83 weeks

11  10.83
Zo   0.283
0.6008

Probability from table by interpolation

P=61.31%

Since probability of project completion on 11 weeks is more than 50%; Ato Abera ,

president of AK con Construction Company, should submit a bid contract to earn 250,000

birr profit.

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 CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT Ceng 5204

Z scores

Z P, Probability of completing Z P, Probability of completing

by( TE) by (TE)

-3.0 0.00 0.1 0.54

-2.5 0.01 0.2 0.58

-2.0 0.02 0.3 0.62

-1.5 0.07 0.4 0.66

-1.4 0.08 0.5 0.69

-1.3 0.10 0.6 0.73

-1.2 0.12 0.7 0.76

-1.1 0.14 0.8 0.79

-1.0 0.16 0.9 0.82

-0.9 0.18 1.0 0.84

-0.8 0.21 1.1 0.86

-0.7 0.24 1.2 0.88

-0.6 0.27 1.3 0.90

-0.5 0.31 1.4 0.92

-0.4 0.34 1.5 0.93

-0.3 0.38 2.0 0.98

-0.2 0.42 2.50 0.99

-0.1 0.46 3.0 1.00

0.0 0.50

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