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    FL-SD-27 Memo 7.29.20

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    Jacob Ogles
    The document summarizes key findings from a poll conducted by Remington Research Group on the 2020 Republican primary election for Florida Senate District 27. The poll found that negative messages about Ray Rodrigues, such as ties to "Big Sugar" and being "bought and paid for by political hacks," made voters less likely to vote for him and shifted the race in favor of his opponent Heather Fitzenhagen. Specifically, the anti-Rodrigues messages moved the ballot from a 22 point lead for Rodrigues to only a 5 point lead. The conclusion is that if Fitzenhagen communicates these negative messages about Rodrigues at the same level as he has promoted himself, she can win the race despite being outspent early on

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    FL-SD-27 Memo 7.29.20

    Uploaded by

    Jacob Ogles
    1K views2 pages
    The document summarizes key findings from a poll conducted by Remington Research Group on the 2020 Republican primary election for Florida Senate District 27. The poll found that negative messages about Ray Rodrigues, such as ties to "Big Sugar" and being "bought and paid for by political hacks," made voters less likely to vote for him and shifted the race in favor of his opponent Heather Fitzenhagen. Specifically, the anti-Rodrigues messages moved the ballot from a 22 point lead for Rodrigues to only a 5 point lead. The conclusion is that if Fitzenhagen communicates these negative messages about Rodrigues at the same level as he has promoted himself, she can win the race despite being outspent early on

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    RRG poll of SD 27 published 7-29-20

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    The document summarizes key findings from a poll conducted by Remington Research Group on the 2020 Republican primary election for Florida Senate District 27. The poll found that negative messages about Ray Rodrigues, such as ties to "Big Sugar" and being "bought and paid for by political hacks," made voters less likely to vote for him and shifted the race in favor of his opponent Heather Fitzenhagen. Specifically, the anti-Rodrigues messages moved the ballot from a 22 point lead for Rodrigues to only a 5 point lead. The conclusion is that if Fitzenhagen communicates these negative messages about Rodrigues at the same level as he has promoted himself, she can win the race despite being outspent early on

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    1K views2 pages

    FL-SD-27 Memo 7.29.20

    Uploaded by

    Jacob Ogles
    The document summarizes key findings from a poll conducted by Remington Research Group on the 2020 Republican primary election for Florida Senate District 27. The poll found that negative messages about Ray Rodrigues, such as ties to "Big Sugar" and being "bought and paid for by political hacks," made voters less likely to vote for him and shifted the race in favor of his opponent Heather Fitzenhagen. Specifically, the anti-Rodrigues messages moved the ballot from a 22 point lead for Rodrigues to only a 5 point lead. The conclusion is that if Fitzenhagen communicates these negative messages about Rodrigues at the same level as he has promoted himself, she can win the race despite being outspent early on

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 2

    TO: Interested Parties

    FROM: Remington Research Group


    RE: Key Findings: FL-SD-27, 2020 Republican Primary Election
    DATE: July 29, 2020

    Issues with the St. Pete Poll


    A recent poll found a 41-point spread between candidates for Florida Senate District 27 Ray Rodrigues
    and Heather Fitzenhagen. It is prudent to note that this poll was conducted 100% through Interactive
    Voice Response (IVR) polling, a method that uses an automated system to call voters on their landlines.
    As of March 2020, 52% of Republican Primary voters reported that they did not have a landline. That
    means the methodology of this poll eliminates half of the likely voters before the first call was ever
    made.

    In addition, outdated IVR methodology skews the survey to include far more voters in the senior
    demographic than are actually represented in the district. Overall, IVR polling has been proven to be far
    less accurate than contemporary polling methods. Another recent poll conducted by Remington
    Research Group uses polling methods that take these issues into account, using methods that reach
    older voters with traditional landlines, as well as younger and middle-aged voters that communicate via
    cell phone. The key findings of that poll are described herein.

    Key RRG Poll Findings


    The latest polling conducted by Remington Research Group denotes Heather Fitzenhagen can win the
    election if she delivers the right negative messages about Ray Rodrigues to the voters. When she
    jumped into the race in mid-June, the Florida Republican Senate Campaign Committee immediately
    launched negative smear attacks against her on airwaves and in mailboxes. Those attacks have eroded
    her early advantage. However, the following messages against Ray Rodrigues prove that Heather can
    even the playing field.

    Uninformed Ballot
    Candidates in the 2020 Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Heather Fitzenhagen and Ray
    Rodrigues. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
    Heather Fitzenhagen: 22%
    Ray Rodrigues: 44%
    Undecided: 34%

    Messages

    Ray Rodrigues is bought and paid for by political hacks in Tallahassee and the corrupt political
    establishment. They're spending thousands of dollars to get him elected because they know he will be a
    puppet for their special interest agenda.
    More likely: 19%
    Less likely: 48%

    No difference: 33%

    816-407-1222 ∙ www.RemingtonResearchGroup.com
    Big Sugar owns Ray Rodrigues. They are funneling thousands of dollars into his campaign account and
    launching false attacks against his conservative Republican opponent. A vote for Sugar Ray is a vote
    against Florida's water.
    More likely: 19%
    Less likely: 48%
    
No difference: 34%

    The Everglades Foundation and other groups who work to improve Florida's water quality oppose Ray
    Rodrigues because they know Sugar Ray is dangerous and will work to destroy Florida's water quality at
    the direction of Big Sugar.
    More likely: 18%
    Less likely: 50%

    No difference: 32%

    Informed Ballot

    Candidates in the 2020 Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Heather Fitzenhagen and Ray
    Rodrigues. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
    Heather Fitzenhagen: 31%
    Ray Rodrigues: 36%
    Undecided: 34%

    The anti-Ray Rodrigues messages shift the ballot from -22 to -5.

    Conclusion
    Ray Rodrigues and FRSCC went up on TV immediately in the first 10 days spreading blatant lies about
    Heather Fitzenhagen. Heather was outspent by Rodrigues and his establishment support early in the
    campaign in both TV and mail by around $1 million to $350,000 which hurt her favorability and ballot
    share.

    Despite the spending deficit, the hits against Ray are powerful, especially when highlighting his alliance
    with Big Sugar. If the Pro-Fitzenhagen side communicates these hits at the same level as the Pro-Ray
    side, Heather Fitzenhagen can win this race.

    Methodology

    1,229 likely 2020 Republican Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to
    match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-
    3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding.

    816-407-1222 ∙ www.RemingtonResearchGroup.com

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