Financial classification models

Advanced Financial Accounting II

School of Business and Economics at
Åbo Akademi University
Contents

1. The classification problem

2. Classification models
3. Case: Bankruptcy prediction of Spanish
banks
4. Some comments on hypothesis testing
References
The classification problem
 In a traditional classification problem the main purpose
is to assign one of k labels (or classes) to each of n
objects, in a way that is consistent with some
observed data, i.e. to determine the class of an
observation based on a set of variables known as
predictors or input variables
 Typical classification problems in finance are for
example
 Financial failure/bankruptcy prediction
 Credit risk rating
Classification methods
 There are several statistical and mathematical
methods for solving the classification problem, e.g.
 Discriminant analysis
 Logistic regression
 The recursive partitioning algorithm (RPA)
 Mathematical programming
 Linear programming models
 Quadratic programming models
 Neural network classifiers
 New methods are continuously being developed
 The lecture notes describe these methods, with
focus laid on discriminant analysis.
Discriminant analysis

 Discriminant analysis is the most common

technique for classifying a set of observations
into predefined classes
 The model is based on a set of observations
for which the classes are known
 This set of observations is sometimes referred
to as the training set or estimation sample
Discriminant Analysis – Historical
background
 Discriminant analysis is concerned with the problem to
assign or allocate an object (e.g. a firm) to its correct
population
 The statistical method originated with Fisher (1936)
 The theoretical framework was derived by Anderson
(1951)
 The term discriminant analysis emerged from the
research by Kendall & Stuart (1968) and Lachenbruch
& Mickey (1968)
 Discriminant analysis was originally applied in
accounting by Altman (1968) using U.S. data and by
Aatto Prihti (1975) on Finnish data
Discriminant analysis...

 Based on the training set, the technique constructs a

set of linear functions of the predictors, known as
discriminant functions, such that

L= 1x1 + 2x2 +…+ nxn + c,

where the 's are discriminant coefficients, the x's

are the input variables or predictors and c is a
constant.
 Two types of discriminant functions are discussed later
 Canonical discriminant functions (k-1)
 Fisher’s discriminant functions (k)
Discriminant functions
 The discriminant functions are optimized to provide a
classification rule that minimizes the probability of
misclassification
 See figure on the next page
 In order to achieve optimal performance, some
statistical assumptions about the data must be met
 Each group must be a sample from a multivariate
normal population
 The population covariance matrices must all be equal
 In practice the discriminant has been shown to
perform fairly well even though the assumptions on
data are violated
Distributions of the discriminant scores
for two classes

Score

Class 1 Class 2

A discriminant function
is optimized to minimize
the common area for the
distributions
Canonical discriminant functions
 A canonical discriminant function is a linear
combination of the discriminating variables which are
formed to satisfy certain conditions
 The coefficients for the first function are derived so
that the group means on the function are as different
as possible
 The coefficients for the second function are derived to
maximize the difference between group means under
the added condition that values on the second function
are not correlated with the values on the first function
 A third function is defined in a similar way having
coefficients which maximize the group differences while
being uncorrelated with the previous function and so on
 The maximum number on unique functions is
Min(Groups – 1, No of discriminating variables)
Fisher’s Discriminant functions

 The discriminant functions are used to predict

the class of a new observation with unknown
class
 For a k class problem, k discriminant functions
are constructed
 Given a new observation, all the k discriminant
functions are evaluated and the observation
is assigned to class i if the i:th discriminant
function has the highest value
Interpretation of the Fisher’s
discriminant function coefficients
 The discriminant functions are used to compute the
discriminant score for a case in which the original
discriminating variables are in standard form
 The discriminant score is computed by multiplying
each discriminating variable by its corresponding
coefficient and adding together these products
 There will be a separate score for each case on each
function
 The coefficients have been derived in such a way that
the discriminant scores produced are in standard form
 Any single score represents the number of standard
deviations the case is away from the mean for all
cases on the given discriminant function
Interpretation of the Fisher’s discriminant
function coefficients…

 The standardized discriminant function coefficients are

of great analytical importance
 When the sign is ignored, each coefficient represents
the relative contribution of its associated variable for
that function
 The sign denotes whether the variable is making a
positive or negative contribution
 The interpretation is analogous to the interpretation of
beta weights in multiple regression
 As in factor analysis, the coefficients can be used to
”name” the functions by identifying the dominant
characteristics they measure
Variable selection: Analyzing group
differences
 Although the variables are interrelated and the
multivariate statistical techniques such as discriminant
analysis incorporate these dependencies, it is often
helpful to begin analyzing the differences between
groups by examining univariate statistics
 The first step is to compare the group means of the
predictor variables
 A significant inequality in group means indicates the
predictor variable’s ability to separate between the
groups
 The significance test for the equality of the group means
is an F-test with 1 and n-g degrees of freedom
 If the observed significance level is less than 0.05, the
hypothesis of equal group means is rejected
Analyzing group differences: Wilks’
Lambda
 Another statistic used to analyze the univariate
equality of group means is Wilks’ Lambda, sometimes
called the U-statistic
 Lambda is the ratio of the within-groups sum of
squares to the total sum of squares
 Lambda has values between 0 and 1
 A lambda of 1 occurs when all observed group means
are equal
 Values close to 0 occur when within-groups variability
is small compared to total variability
 Large values of lambda indicate that group means do
not appear to be different while small values indicate
that group means do appear to be different
Multivariate Wilks’ Lambda statistic

 In the case of several variables {X1, X2,...,Xp}, the

total variability is expressed by the total cross
product matrix T
 The sum of cross-product matrix T is decomposed
into the within-group sum of cross- product matrix W
and the between-group sum of cross-product matrix
B such that

T=W+BW=T-B
Multivariate Wilks’ Lambda statistic...

 For the set of the X variables, the multivariate global Wilks’

Lambda is defined as

p = |W| / |W + B| = |W| / |T| ~ (p,m,n)

where
|W| = the determinant of the within-group SSCP matrix
|B| = the determinant of the between-groups SSCP matrix
|T| = the determinant of the total sum of cross product matrix
(p,m,n) = Wilks’ Lambda distribution
For large m, Bartlett's (1954) approximation allows Wilks'
lambda to be approximated by a Chi-square distribution
p n 1 2
m log ( p, m, n ) ~ np
2
Variable selection: Correlations
between predictor variables

 Since interdependencies among the variables affect

most multivariate analyses, it is worth examining the
correlation matrix of the predictor variables
 Including highly correlated variables in the analysis
should be avoided as correlations between variables
affect the magnitude and the signs of the coefficients
 If correlated variables are included in the analysis,
care should be exercised when interpreting the
individual coefficients
Case: Bankruptcy prediction in the
Spanish banking sector
 Reference: Olmeda, Ignacio and Fernández, Eugenio:
"Hybrid classifiers for financial multicriteria decision
making: The case of bankruptcy prediction",
Computational Economics 10, 1997, 317-335.
 Sample: 66 Spanish banks
 37 survivors
 29 failed
 Sample was divided in two sub-samples
 Estimation sample, 34 banks, for estimating the model
parameters
 Holdout sample, 32 banks, for validating the results
Case: Bankruptcy prediction in the
Spanish banking sector
Input variables
 Current assets/Total assets
 (Current assets-Cash)/Total assets
 Current assets/Loans
 Reserves/Loans
 Net income/Total assets
 Net income/Total equity capital
 Net income/Loans
 Cost of sales/Sales
 Cash flow/Loans
Empirical results

 Analyzing the total set of 66 observations

 Group statistics – comparing the group means
 Testing for the equality of group means
 Correlation matrix
 Classification with different methods
 Estimating classification models using the
estimation sample of 34 observations
 Checking the validity of the models by classifying
the holdout sample of 32 observations
Group statistics
Class 0 N=37 Class 1 N=29 Total N=66
Mean St.dev Mean St.dev Mean St.dev
CA/TA ,410 ,114 ,370 ,108 ,393 ,112
(CA-Cash)/TA ,268 ,089 ,264 ,092 ,266 ,089
CA/Loans ,423 ,144 ,390 ,117 ,409 ,133
Reserves/Loans ,038 ,054 ,016 ,012 ,028 ,043
NI/TA ,008 ,005 -,003 ,019 ,003 ,014
NI/TEC ,167 ,082 -,032 ,419 ,079 ,299
NI/Loans ,008 ,005 -,003 ,020 ,003 ,015
CofS/Sales ,828 ,062 ,957 ,188 ,885 ,147
CF/Loans ,018 ,029 ,004 ,012 ,012 ,024
Tests of equality of group means

Insignificant difference Wilks’

F df1 df2 Sig.
Lambda
CA/TA ,969 2,072 1 64 ,155
(CA-Cash)/TA 1,000 ,027 1 64 ,871
CA/Loans ,985 ,981 1 64 ,326
No
Reserves/Loans ,932 4,667 1 64 ,034 significant
NI/TA ,864 10,041 1 64 ,002 difference
in group
NI/TEC ,889 8,011 1 64 ,006 means
NI/Loans ,863 10,149 1 64 ,002
CofS/Sales ,805 15,463 1 64 ,000
CF/Loans ,918 5,713 1 64 ,020
F(1,64)-distribution

F(1,64)-distribution

0.14

0.12

0.1

0.08

0.06 (CA-Cash)/TA
0.027 5% critical
0.04 CA/Loans value = 3.99
CA/TA
0.981
0.02 2.072

0
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3 3.25 3.5 3.75 4 4.25 4.5
Tests of equality of group means
 The tests of equality of the group means indicate that
for the three first predictor variables there does not
seem to be any significant difference in group means
 F-values < 3.99, the 5 % critical value for F(1,64)
 Significance > 0.05
 The result is confirmed by the Wilks’ lambda values
close to 1
 As the results indicate low univariate discriminant
power for these variables, some or all of them may be
excluded from analysis in order to get a parsimonious
model
Pooled Within-Groups Correlation
Matrix
CA/TA (C-C)/TA CA/Loa Res/Loa NI/TA NI/TEC NI/Loa CS/Sal CF/Loa

CA/TA 1,000
(C-C)/TA ,760 1,000
CA/Loa ,917 ,641 1,000
Res/Loa ,013 -,230 ,099 1,000
NI/TA ,038 -,007 ,058 ,174 1,000
NI/TEC -,023 -,016 -,035 ,033 ,956 1,000
NI/Loa ,048 -,015 ,072 ,194 ,999 ,947 1,000
CS/Sal -,087 -,147 -,104 -,288 -,565 -,419 -,570 1,000
CF/Loa -,007 -,013 ,014 ,116 ,223 ,181 ,225 -,372 1,000
Correlations between predictor
variables
 The variables Current assets/Total assets and Current
assets/Loans are highly correlated (Corr = 0,917)
 The variables explain the same variation in the data
 Including both the variables in the discriminant
function does not improve the explanation power but
may lead to multicollinearity problem in estimation
 Only one of the variables should be selected into the
set of explanatory variables
 For the same reason, only one of the variables Net
income/Total assets, Net income/Total equity capital
and Net income/Loans should be selected
Summary of Canonical Discriminant
Functions
Eigenvalues
Function Eigenvalue % of Cumulative Canonical
Variance % Correlation
1 ,417a 100,0 100,0 ,542
a. First 1 canonical discriminant functions were used in the analysis.

Wilk’s Lambda
Test of Wilk’s Chi-square df Sig.
Function(s) Lambda
1 ,706 20,899 8 ,007
Canonical Discriminant Function
Coefficients
Function 1
Standardized Unstandardized
CA/TA -1,318 -11,825
(CA-Cash)/TA ,625 6,940
CA/Loans ,612 4,601
Reserves/Loans -,228 -5,510
NI/TA 1,134 85,998
NI/TEC -1,264 -4,456
CofS/Sales ,780 5,884
CF/Loans -,180 -7,864
Constant -3,957
Relative contribution
of each variable to
discriminant function
Functions at group centroids

Class Function 1
0 -,563
1 ,718

Unstandardized
canonical discriminant
functions evaluated at
group means
Example of classifying an observation
by the canonical discrimiant function
Obs. 1 Coeff. Score
Constant -3,957 -3,957 Distance to group
CA/TA 0.4611 -11,825 -5,453 centroid for Group 1
(Failed), 0,718,
CA_Cash/TA 0.3837 6,940 2,663 smaller than
CA/Loans 0.4894 4,601 2,252 distance to group
Res/Loans 0.0077 -5,510 -0,042 centroid for Group 0
(Survived), -0,563 
NI/TA 0.0057 85,998 0,490 Classification to the
NI/TEC 0.0996 -4,456 -0,444 closest group Failed
CofS/Sales 0.8799 5,884 5,177
CF/Loans 0.0092 -7,864 -0,072
Total Score 0,614
Fisher’s discriminant function
coefficients
Survived Failed

Constant -66,485 -71,653

CA/TA 15,352 ,207
CA_Cash/TA 82,320 912,208
CA/Loans -29,866 -23,973
Res/Loans 81,189 74,071
NI/TA 2006,853 2116.987
NI/TEC -65,300 -71,007
CofS/Sales 126,771 134,307
CF/Loans 185,726 175,654
Example on classifying an observation
by Fisher’s discriminant functions

Obs. 1 Survived Score Failed Score

Constant -66,485 -66,485 -71,653 -71,653
CA/TA 0.4611 15,352 7,079 ,207 0,095
CA_Cash/TA 0.3837 82,320 31,586 912,208 34,997
CA/Loans 0.4894 -29,866 -14,616 -23,973 -11,732
Res/Loans 0.0077 81,189 0,625 74,071 0,570
NI/TA 0.0057 2006,853 11,439 2116.987 12,067
NI/TEC 0.0996 -65,300 -6,054 -71,007 -7,072
CofS/Sales 0.8799 126,771 111,546 134,307 118,177
CF/Loans 0.0092 185,726 1,709 175,654 1,616
Total Score 76,378 77,064
Larger score
Classification: Failed
Confusion matrix – Classification results

Predicted class
Survived Failed
True Survived 28 9
class
75,7 % 24,3 %
Failed 4 25
13,8 % 86,2 %
Summary of classifications with different
classification methods(Estimation sample)

Correct Errors Total Percents

Method
class SW NE number Correct SW NE
RPA 30 1 3 34 88.24 % 2.94 % 8.82 %
MDA 30 0 4 34 88.24 % 0.00 % 11.76 %
MDA-Q 31 0 3 34 91.18 % 0.00 % 8.82 %
MDA-W 31 0 3 34 91.18 % 0.00 % 8.82 %
LogR 33 0 1 34 97.06 % 0.00 % 2.94 %
LP 28 1 5 34 82.35 % 2.94 % 14.71 %
LP-Q 34 0 0 34 100.00 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
LPG 33 0 1 34 97.06 % 0.00 % 2.94 %
LPGQ 34 0 0 34 100.00 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
Kohonen 24 3 7 34 70.59 % 8.82 % 20.59 %
Summary of classifications (Holdout
sample)

Correct Errors Total Percents

Method
class SW NE number Correct SW NE
RPA 27 2 3 32 84.38 % 6.25 % 9.38 %
MDA 25 4 3 32 78.13 % 12.50 % 9.38 %
MDA-Q 20 7 5 32 62.50 % 21.88 % 15.63 %
MDA-W 25 5 2 32 78.13 % 15.63 % 6.25 %
LogR 28 3 1 32 87.50 % 9.38 % 3.13 %
LP 24 5 3 32 75.00 % 15.63 % 9.38 %
LP-Q 21 7 4 32 65.63 % 21.88 % 12.50 %
LPG 25 4 3 32 78.13 % 12.50 % 9.38 %
LPGQ 21 7 4 32 65.63 % 21.88 % 12.50 %
Kohonen 16 4 12 32 50.00 % 12.50 % 37.50 %
Classification results – Error types

 The classification results for the different methods

differ in
 Total classification accuracy
 Descriptive (Estimation sample)

 Predictive (Holdout sample)

 Error types
 Classifying a survivor as failed

 Classifying a failed as survivor

 Many methods may be calibrated to take into account

the relative severity of the two types of errors
The multiplication rule
The multiplication rule for probabilities is

(1) PAB = PA|B • PB and PBA = PB|A • PA

PA|A
A ← Correct classification
PA A
← Misclassification: Object A is
PB|A B
allocated to group B
PA|B
A ← Misclassification: Object B is
PB allocated to group A
B
PB|B B ← Correct classification
Probability of erroneous assignment

 Assume that we have a sample X T×p of random

measurements and k regions Ri, i = 1,…,k. The

probability distribution for region i is fi(x).
 By the multiplication rule,
(2) pij = pi|j pj, (i, j = 1,…,k)
is the probability of assigning an object belonging to
population j erroneously to group i.
Probability of erroneous assignment…

 All we have to do in order to evaluate the probability of

misclassifying an object belonging to population j is to
sum (2) over all k non-overlapping regions
k k
(3) ej pij pj pi | j (j 1,...,k )
i 1 i 1
i j i j

 pi|j = the conditional probability of an object from j

being assigned to group i. That is equivalent to the
probability mass of fj over region Ri:

(4) pi | j f j ( x )dx
Ri
Probability of correct classification

 Using (4), we may write (3) as:

k
(5) ej pj fi ( x )dx
i 1 Ri
i j

 The probability of correct classification of an object is

k
(6) Fj 1 ej 1 pj f j ( x )dx p j f j ( x )dx
i 1 Ri Rj
i j
The maximization problem for optimal
allocation
 We obtain the last equality because
k k
pi | j pi | j p j| j 1
i 1 i 1
i j

and the probability distribution for region Rj is obtained

by substituting pi|j in (4)
k
 The allocation problem is to maximize Fe F in
i 1 j
(6) by choosing an optimal partition (R1,…, Rk) of the
sample space:
k
(7) Maximize F p j f j ( x )dx
j 1 Rj
Two populations and known
distributions
 When the distributions are unknown, like in practice,
they must be assumed/estimated
 The same formulae are still used
 When k = 2, the maximization problem (7) becomes

(8) Maximize F p1 f1( x )dx p2 f2 ( x )dx

R1 R2

 Hogg and Craig (1978) used a similar proof as for the

Newman-Pearson lemma for statistical tests of simple
hypotheses to extract the optimal partitioning
(maximum of (8))
The optimal partitioning - Proof

f1( x ) p2 f1( x ) p2
(9) R1 x , R2 x
f2 ( x ) p1 f2 ( x ) p1

 We present the key steps of the proof below (cf.

Karson, 1982)
 Let 1, 2 be arbitrary of the sample space X such that
1 2 = X and 1 2 = .
 Let R1 = { x | 1(x) 2(x) } and
(10) R2 = { x | 1(x) < 2(x) }, where
(x), i = 1,2 are continuous functions in X p
i
 Then R1 R2 = X and R1 R2 =
The optimal partitioning – Proof…

 Let ~
I 1 ( x )dx 2 ( x )dx
~ ~
R1 R2

I 1 ( x )dx 2 ( x )dx
R1 R2

 Consider the difference

~
I I
(11)
1( x )dx 2 ( x )dx ( x )dx
1 2 ( x )dx
R1 R2 ~ ~
R1 R2
The optimal partitioning – Proof…

 We know that R1 = (R1 2) (R1 1)

R2 = (R2 1) (R2 2)

1 = ( 1 R1) ( 1 R2)
2 = ( 2 R1) ( 2 R2)
 We can therefore write (10) as
  
1( x )dx 1( x )dx 2 ( x )dx
~ ~ ~
R1 R2
 R1 R1
 R2 R1

(12) 2 ( x )dx 1( x )dx 1( x )dx
~ ~ ~
R2 R2
 R1 R1
 R1 R2

2 ( x )dx 2 ( x )dx
~ ~
R2 R1 R2 R2
The optimal partitioning – Proof…

 We note that  =  and  = , hence they are

eliminated and (11) reduces to
 
1( x )dx 1( x )dx
~ ~
(13) R1 R2
 R1 R2

2 ( x )dx 2 ( x )dx
~ ~
R2 R1 R2 R1

 By assembling the terms involving identical regions,

i.e.,  &  and  &  respectively, we obtain

(14) ( 1( x ) 2 ( x ))dx ( 2(x) 1 ( x ))dx

~ ~
R1 R2 R2 R1
Some comments on hypothesis
testing
Assume that we – as a bank institution – want to
distinguish between non-distressed (H0) vs. distressed
(H1) firms using a suitable financial ratio FR (for
example based on the discriminant score), in order to
reduce the financial risk in loan decisions
To do this, we need to compare the FR of a firm with a
critical value FRc
 If FR > FRc, then the firm is assumed to be distressed,
otherwise not.
Some comments on hypothesis testing…

There is a tension between type I and type II errors

The first type is smaller, the higher is the significance
(i.e. the smaller is ): The probability of rejecting H0
falsely is smaller, the smaller is
Type I error is the probability of rejecting H0 even if it is
true
With = 10% this probability is twice that of = 5% and
ten times that of = 1%
We throw away a gold nugget among the rubbish in 10%
of all cases by rejecting H0 for firms that actually are
non-distressed.
Some comments on hypothesis testing…

If we get an extremely high FR for a firm, however,

everybody will realize that the probability of that firm
being non-distressed is practically negligible:
The probability of such an outcome being generated by
chance is very low.
In such a case it is safe to conclude that the firm is
financially distressed and, for example, to reject
financing a project that the firm is contemplating.
On the other hand, the more we shift the critical
significance level (FRc) to the right, the less frequently
we will reject H0
If FRc is extremely high, we will accept H0 almost always:
Everybody will receive a loan from our bank.
Some comments on hypothesis testing…

But the more we shift the critical level FRc to the right, the
more often we will accept H0 even if it is false: there
will be firms in our clientele that should not be there
These firms are distressed, even though we have failed
to detect this because of a high FRc. This latter error is
denoted Type II
Because of the high FRc the test has a low power: the
probability of failing to reject a false null hypothesis is
unduly high
The probability of type I vs. type II errors depend on the
significance level , the properties of the test statistic
(here: FR) and the statistical properties of the
database
Statistical experts warn against a slavish usage of the
standard type I significance test in a statistical context.
Other techniques in financial classification

Logistic regression
The recursive partitioning algorithm (RPA)
Mathematical programming
Linear programming models
Quadratic programming models
Neural network classifiers
Logistic Regression
 Logistic regression is part of a category of statistical
models called generalized linear models
 Whereas discriminant analysis can only be used with
continuous independent variables. Logistic regression
allows one to predict a discrete outcome, such as
group membership, from a set of variables that may be
continuous, discrete, dichotomous, or a mix of any of
these
 Generally, the dependent or response variable is
dichotomous, such as presence/absence or
success/failure.
Logistic Regression...

 Even though the dependent variable in logistic

regression is usually dichotomous, that is, the
dependent variable can take the value 1 with a
probability of success q, or the value 0 with
probability of failure 1-q, applications of logistic
regression have also been extended to cases
where the dependent variable is of more than
two cases
Logistic Regression...

 The independent or predictor variables in logistic

regression can take any form, i.e. logistic regression
makes no assumption about the distribution of the
independent variables
 They do not have to be normally distributed, linearly
related or of equal variance within each group
 The relationship between the predictor and response
variables is not a linear function, instead, the logistic
regression function is used, which is the logit
transformation of probability q
Logistic Regression...

 The Model:
1x1 2 x2 ... n xn
e
1 e 1x1 2 x2 ... n xn
where is the constant of the equation and, :s are
the coefficient of the predictor variables
 An alternative form of the logistic regression equation
is:
x
logit x log x
1 1 2 x2 ... n xn
1 x
Logistic Regression...

 The goal of logistic regression is to correctly

predict the category of outcome for individual
cases using the most parsimonious model
 To accomplish this goal, a model is created
that includes all predictor variables that are
useful in predicting the response variable.
 Different methods for model creation
 Stepwise regression

 Backward stepwise regression

Logistic Regression...

 Stepwise regression
 Variables are entered into the model in the
order specified by the researcher or logistic
regression can test the fit of the model after
each coefficient is added or deleted
 Used in the exploratory phase of research
where no a-priori assumptions regarding
the relationships between the variables are
made, thus the goal is to discover
relationships
Logistic Regression...

 Backward stepwise regression

 The analysis begins with a full or saturated model
and variables are eliminated from the model in an
iterative process
 The fit of the model is tested after the elimination
of each variable to ensure that the model still
adequately fits the data
 When no more variables can be eliminated from
the model, the analysis has been completed
 The preferred method of exploratory analyses
Logistic Regression...

 Two main uses of logistic regression

 The prediction of group membership
 Calculates the probability or success over the
probability of failure
 The results of the analysis are in the form of an odds
ratio
 For example, logistic regression is often used in
epidemiological studies where the result of the
analysis is the probability of developing cancer after
controlling for other associated risks
 Logistic regression also provides knowledge of the
relationships and strengths among the variables
Recursive Partitioning Algorithm
(RPA)
 A decision tree model for classification
 For each independent variable the
observations in each class are sorted in
increasing order, and the cumulative density
functions for each class are defined
 The maximum absolute difference between
the cumulative functions defines the cutting
variable and cutting point for a node in the
decision tree
Recursive Partitioning Algorithm, an
example
 Assume that we have a sample of 9
cases of which 5 belong to class 1 and 4
to class 2. The cases are measured by
two predictor variables x1 and x2. The
input data is presented in the following
table:
Recursive Partitioning Algorithm, an
example...
Case Class x1 x2
1 1 2 7
2 1 1 8
3 1 7 9
4 1 2 5
5 1 4 8
6 2 6 3
7 2 3 1
8 2 8 6
9 2 8 3
Recursive Partitioning Algorithm, an
example...

 The cases are first ordered in ascending order

of the first predictor variable x1
 Then, the empirical cumulative distributions
F1(x1) and F2(x1) are computed, and the
absolute difference |F1(x1) - F2(x1)| is
computed
 The results of the computations are presented
in the following table:
Recursive Partitioning Algorithm, an
example...

Case x1 Class F1(x1) F2(x1) |F1(x1) - F2(x1)|

2 1 1 0,20 0,00 0,20
1 2 1 0,40 0,00 0,40
4 2 1 0,60 0,00 0,60
7 3 2 0,60 0,25 0,35
5 4 1 0,80 0,25 0,55
6 6 2 0,80 0,50 0,30
3 7 1 1,00 0,50 0,50
8 8 2 1,00 0,75 0,25
9 8 2 1,00 1,00 0,00
Recursive Partitioning Algorithm, an
example...
 The maximum value of the absolute difference
between the cumulative distribution functions for the
first predictor variable is 0.60, corresponding to value
x1 = 2.
 The best discrimination based on variable x1 is
achieved by assigning the three cases with the value
of x1 less than or equal to 2 to the class to which the
majority of the cases in this subgroup, i.e. to class 1,
and the six cases with x1 greater than 2 to class
 Thus, two of the nine cases are misclassified by
variable x1
Recursive Partitioning Algorithm, an
example...

1.2

0.8

F1(x1)
0.6 F2(x1)

0.4
D(x1*) = 0,6
0.2

0
2 1 4 7 5 6 3 8 9
Recursive Partitioning Algorithm, an
example...

 The same procedure is then performed

with the other predictor variable x2, in
order to find the best univariate
discriminator
 The computational results and the
corresponding graphs are presented
below:
Recursive Partitioning Algorithm, an
example...

Case x2 Class F1(x2) F2(x2) |F1(x2) - F2(x2)|

7 1 2 0,00 0,25 0,25
6 3 2 0,00 0,50 0,60
9 3 2 0,00 0,75 0,75
4 5 1 0,20 0,75 0,55
8 6 2 0,20 1,00 0,80
1 7 1 0,40 1,00 0,60
2 8 1 0,60 1,00 0,40
5 8 1 1,00 1,00 0,20
3 9 1 1,00 1,00 0,00
Recursive Partitioning Algorithm, an
example...

1.2

0.8
F1(x2)
0.6 F2(x2)

0.4
D(x2*) = 0,8
0.2

0
7 6 9 5 8 1 2 4 3
Recursive Partitioning Algorithm, an
example...
 The maximum value of the absolute difference
between the cumulative distributions is now 0.8,
corresponding to value x2 = 6
 Thus the best discrimination based on variable x2 is
achieved by assigning the five cases with x2 less than
or equal to 6 into class 2 and the other four cases into
class 1.
 By this partitioning, only one of the nine cases is
misclassified, i.e. variable x2 is superior to variable x1,
in terms of univariate discrimination power.
Recursive Partitioning Algorithm, an
example...
 Mathematically, the best univariate discriminator is
found by comparing the maximum distances D(x1) and
D(x2) and selecting the variable with the maximum
D(xj)
 As the maximum D(xj) is
Max(D(x1),D(x2)) = Max(0.6;0.8) = 0.8 = D(x2)
x2 is the variable with the greatest univariate
discrimination power and the first splitting is done in
the way suggested by the second predictor variable
Recursive Partitioning Algorithm, an
example...
 As one of the two subgroups contains cases from both
classes, an additional partitioning of the subgroup
consisting of observations 4, 6, 7, 8 and 9 is possible
 The maximum distance in this second partitioning is
1.0 corresponding to value x1 = 2
 The optimal partitioning now is to assign the case with
x1 equal to 2 into class 1 and the other four cases into
class 2
 All the nine cases are now correctly assigned in pure
classes
Recursive Partitioning Algorithm, an
example... The decision tree

X2
≤6 >6

X1 Class 1
≤2 >2

Class 1 Class 2
The Linear Programming classification
model by Freed and Glover (1981)
 Given observations xi and groups Gj, find the linear
transformation a, and the appropriate boundaries bjL
and bjU, to 'properly' categorize each xi
 Bounds bjL and bjU represent respectively the lower
and upper boundaries for points assigned to group j.
 Thus the task is to determine a linear predicting or
weighting scheme a and breakpoints bjL and bjU, such
that
bjL ≤ xka ≤ bjU ⇔ xk ∈ Gj
and
b1L < b1U < b2L < b2U < ... < bgU
The Linear Programming classification model
by Freed and Glover (1981) …

 The points xi may of course be distributed in a way

that makes complete group differentiation impossible
 Therefore, it becomes important to endow the
weighting scheme with the power to establish the
foregoing group differentiation with minimum exception
 This implies that we should determine a predictor a
such that:

xia ≥ bjL, xia ≤ bjU for all xi ∈ Gj.

The Linear Programming classification model
by Freed and Glover (1981) …

 To ensure that the target is achieved as nearly

as possible, we impose the following goal
constraints:
bUj b Lj 1 j , for j 1,..., g - 1
where g = number of groups and 0 < ε.
 The objective function is defined as
g-1
Minimize αj
j 1
Neural Network classification

 Neural networks are computation models that

mimic the human learning process (cf. Östermark [2009])
 A network is trained by
 Giving one observation at a time as input
 Computing the output value for the observation with
the current net
 Comparing the computed output value with the
known correct result
 Adjusting the net weights based on the difference
between the computed and observed output values
An example of a neural network
classifier
Classification 0/1

Output layer

Second hidden layer

First hidden layer

Input layer

Predictor variables x1 x2 x3 x4
3. Case: Bankruptcy prediction in
the Spanish banking sector
 Reference: Olmeda, Ignacio and Fernández, Eugenio:
"Hybrid classifiers for financial multicriteria decision
making: The case of bankruptcy prediction",
Computational Economics 10, 1997, 317-335.
 Sample: 66 Spanish banks
 37 survivors
 29 failed
 Sample was divided in two sub-samples
 Estimation sample, 34 banks, for estimating the model
parameters
 Holdout sample, 32 banks, for validating the results
Case: Bankruptcy prediction in the
Spanish banking sector
Input variables
 Current assets/Total assets
 (Current assets-Cash)/Total assets
 Current assets/Loans
 Reserves/Loans
 Net income/Total assets
 Net income/Total equity capital
 Net income/Loans
 Cost of sales/Sales
 Cash flow/Loans
Empirical results

 Analyzing the total set of 66 observations

 Group statistics – comparing the group means
 Testing for the equality of group means
 Correlation matrix
 Classification with different methods
 Estimating classification models using the
estimation sample of 34 observations
 Checking the validity of the models by classifying
the holdout sample of 32 observations
Confusion matrix – Classification results for
the holdout sample using Logistic Regression

Predicted class
Survived Failed
True Survived 17 1
class
94.44 % 5.56 %
Failed 3 11
21.43 % 78.57 %
Summary of classifications
(Estimation sample)

Correct Errors Total Percents

Method
class SW NE number Correct SW NE
RPA 30 1 3 34 88.24 % 2.94 % 8.82 %
MDA 30 0 4 34 88.24 % 0.00 % 11.76 %
MDA-Q 31 0 3 34 91.18 % 0.00 % 8.82 %
MDA-W 31 0 3 34 91.18 % 0.00 % 8.82 %
LogR 33 0 1 34 97.06 % 0.00 % 2.94 %
LP 28 1 5 34 82.35 % 2.94 % 14.71 %
LP-Q 34 0 0 34 100.00 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
LPG 33 0 1 34 97.06 % 0.00 % 2.94 %
LPGQ 34 0 0 34 100.00 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
Kohonen 24 3 7 34 70.59 % 8.82 % 20.59 %
Summary of classifications
(Holdout sample)

Correct Errors Total Percents

Method
class SW NE number Correct SW NE
RPA 27 2 3 32 84.38 % 6.25 % 9.38 %
MDA 25 4 3 32 78.13 % 12.50 % 9.38 %
MDA-Q 20 7 5 32 62.50 % 21.88 % 15.63 %
MDA-W 25 5 2 32 78.13 % 15.63 % 6.25 %
LogR 28 3 1 32 87.50 % 9.38 % 3.13 %
LP 24 5 3 32 75.00 % 15.63 % 9.38 %
LP-Q 21 7 4 32 65.63 % 21.88 % 12.50 %
LPG 25 4 3 32 78.13 % 12.50 % 9.38 %
LPGQ 21 7 4 32 65.63 % 21.88 % 12.50 %
Kohonen 16 4 12 32 50.00 % 12.50 % 37.50 %
Classification results – Error
types
 The classification results for the different methods
differ in
 Total classification accuracy
 Descriptive (Estimation sample)

 Predictive (Holdout sample)

 Error types
 Classifying a survivor as failed
 Classifying a failed as survivor
 Many methods may be calibrated to take into account
the relative severity of the two types of errors
Fisher’s discriminant function
coefficients
Survived Failed

Constant -758.242 -758.800

CA/TA 48.588 34.572
CA_Cash/TA 9.800 23.506
CA/Loans -18.031 -16.947
Res/Loans 351.432 342.204
NI/TA -246 563.200 -236 546.700
NI/TEC 774.368 740.035
NI/Loans 23 681.300 21 4974.000
CofS/Sales 1 499.659 1 505.547
CF/Loans 14 625.844 14 245.368
Example on classifying an observation
by discriminant functions

Obs. 1 Survived Score Failed Score

Constant -758.24 -758.24 -758.800 -758.80
CA/TA 0.4611 48.59 22.40 34.572 15.94
CA_Cash/TA 0.3837 9.80 3.76 23.506 9.02
CA/Loans 0.4894 -18.03 -8.82 -16.947 -8.29
Res/Loans 0.0077 351.43 2.71 342.204 2.63
NI/TA 0.0057 -246563.2 -1405.41 -236546.7 -1348.32
NI/TEC 0.0996 774.37 77.13 740.035 73.71
NI/Loans 0.0061 23681.3 1364.46 214974.0 1311.34
CofS/Sales 0.8799 1499.66 1319.55 1505.547 1324.73
CF/Loans 0.0092 14625.84 134.56 14245.368 131.06
Total Score 752.08 753.02
Larger score
Classification: Failed
4. Some comments on hypothesis
testing
Assume that we – as a bank institution - want to distinguish between non-distressed
(H0) vs. distressed (H1) firms using a suitable financial ratio FR (for example
based on the discriminant score), in order to reduce the financial risk in loan
decisions. To do this, we need to compare the FR of a firm with a critical value
FRc. If FR> FRc, then the firm is assumed to be distressed, otherwise not.
There is a tension between type I and type II errors. The first type is smaller, the
higher is the significance (i.e. the smaller is ): The probability of rejecting H0
falsely is smaller, the smaller is . Type I error is the probability of rejecting H0
even if it is true. With =10% this probability is twice that of =5% and ten times
that of =1%. We throw away a gold nugget among the rubbish in 10% of all
cases by rejecting H0 for firms that actually are non-distressed.
If we get an extremely high FR for a firm, however, everybody will realize that the
probability of that firm being non-distressed is practically negligible: The
probability of such an outcome being generated by chance is very low. In such a
case it is safe to conclude that the firm is financially distressed and, for example,
to reject financing a project that the firm is contemplating.
Some comments on hypothesis
testing…
On the other hand, the more we shift the critical significance level (FRc) to the right,
the less frequently we will reject H0. If FRc is extremely high, we will accept H0
almost always: Everybody will receive a loan from our bank.
But the more we shift the critical level FRc to the right, the more often we will accept
H0 even if it is false: there will be firms in our clientele that should not be there.
These firms are distressed, even though we have failed to detect this because of
a high FRc.
This latter error is denoted Type II. Because of the high FRc the test has a low power:
the probability of failing to reject a false null hypothesis is unduly high.
The probability of type I vs. type II errors depend on the significance level , the
properties of the test statistic (here: FR) and the statistical properties of the
database. Statistical experts warn against a slavish usage of the standard type I
significance test in a statistical context.
References
 Bartlett, M.S. (1954). "A note on multiplying factors for various χ2
approximations". J. Royal Statist. Soc. Series B 16, pp. 296–298.
 Balcaen S, Ooghe H (2006). “35 years of studies on business failure: on
overview of the classic statistical methodologies and their related
problems. The British Accounting Review 38, 69-93.
 Freed, N. and F. Glover: "Evaluating alternative Linear Programming
models to solve the two-group discriminant problem", Decision Sciences,
17, 1986, pp. 151-162.
 Frydman, H., E. T. Altman, and D. L. Kao: "Introducing recursive
partitioning for financial classification: the case of financial distress", The
Journal of Finance, 40:1, March, 1985, 269-291
 Olmeda, Ignacio and Fernández, Eugenio: "Hybrid classifiers for financial
multicriteria decision making: The case of bankruptcy prediction",
Computational Economics 10, 1997, 317-335.
References
 Aziz M.A, Dar H. A: Predicting corporate bankruptcy: where we stand?.
Corporate Governance, vol 6, No 1, 2006, 18-33 .
References
 Östermark, Ralf and Jaana Aaltonen: "Comparing mathematical,
statistical and artificial intelligence based techniques in bankruptcy
prediction", Accounting & Business Review 5:1, 1998, 95-120.
 Östermark, Ralf and Rune Höglund; "Addressing the multigroup
discriminant problem using multivariate statistics and mathematical
programming ", European Journal of Operational Research 108:1, 1998,
224-237.
 Östermark, R.: Geno-mathematical identification of the multi-layer
perceptron. Neural Computing and Applications 18:4, 2009, pp. 331-344.
(http://www.springerlink.com/openurl.asp?genre=article&id=doi:10.
1007/s00521-008-0184-4).
References
 Bartlett, M.S. (1954). "A note on multiplying factors for various χ2
approximations". J. Royal Statist. Soc. Series B 16, pp. 296–298.
 Balcaen S, Ooghe H (2006). “35 years of studies on business failure: on
overview of the classic statistical methodologies and their related
problems. The British Accounting Review 38, 69-93.
 Freed, N. and F. Glover: "Evaluating alternative Linear Programming
models to solve the two-group discriminant problem", Decision Sciences,
17, 1986, pp. 151-162.
 Frydman, H., E. T. Altman, and D. L. Kao: "Introducing recursive
partitioning for financial classification: the case of financial distress", The
Journal of Finance, 40:1, March, 1985, 269-291
 Olmeda, Ignacio and Fernández, Eugenio: "Hybrid classifiers for financial
multicriteria decision making: The case of bankruptcy prediction",
Computational Economics 10, 1997, 317-335.
References
 Aziz M.A, Dar H. A: Predicting corporate bankruptcy: where we stand?.
Corporate Governance, vol 6, No 1, 2006, 18-33 .
 Östermark, Ralf and Jaana Aaltonen (1998): "Comparing mathematical,
statistical and artificial intelligence based techniques in bankruptcy
prediction", Accounting & Business Review 5:1, 95-120.
 Östermark, Ralf and Rune Höglund (1998): "Addressing the multigroup
discriminant problem using multivariate statistics and mathematical
programming ", European Journal of Operational Research 108:1, 224-
237.
 Östermark, R (2009): Geno-mathematical identification of the multi-layer
perceptron. Neural Computing and Applications 18:4, pp. 331-344.
(http://www.springerlink.com/openurl.asp?genre=article&id=doi:10.
1007/s00521-008-0184-4).