Unsolved Homicides Janet MC Clellan
Unsolved Homicides Janet MC Clellan
Unsolved Homicides Janet MC Clellan
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Unsolved Homicides
Janet McClellan
To cite this article: Janet McClellan (2007) Unsolved Homicides, Journal of Security Education,
2:3, 53-69, DOI: 10.1300/J460v02n03_05
INTRODUCTION
In 1960 when the homicide rate in the United States was 9,110, the
clearance rate stood at 92% accounting for the clearance of 8,382 mur-
ders (Harris et al., 2002; Regoeczi & Miethe, 2003; Litwin, 2004). Un-
fortunately, by 2004 when the reported number of homicides had
dipped to 16,204 from a peak in 1993, the solved rate had also dipped to
62%, or 10,046 murders were solved, thereby leaving 6,158 unsolved
and uncleared. From 1993 to 2002, murder arrests fell by 40.9%.
Arrests of juveniles were 64.3% less than the 1993 figure, and arrests of
adults were 36.3% less. The 10-year trend also revealed that arrests of
males for murder were down by 41.5%; arrests of females were 35.5%
lower than arrests of females for murder in 1993 (FBI, 2002).
If we can extrapolate a bit, in 1960 the number of unsolved/uncleared
homicides totaled 728 victims and by 2004, the number of unsolved ho-
micides per year had increased to 6,167, signaling a ninefold increase in
unsolved murders. Using the 1960 unsolved rate of 728 and the offense
rate of 9,100 to compare the 2004 unsolved rate of 6,158 and the offense
level of 16,204, an unusual picture emerges. The 9,110 homicide of-
fenses in 1960 are equal to 56.2% of the homicides committed in 2004
(16,204). If solved rates had remained steady, the number of unsolved
in 2004 would have been 1,138, rather than the actual recorded figure of
6,167. Therefore, the unsolved rate in 2004 represents a 76% increase
in the number of unsolved/uncleared homicides in the United States
since 1960. Although some homicides are solved within five-to-ten
years following their initial report, the fact remains that the increase in
unsolved/uncleared homicide offenses during the last 45 years permits
thousands of murderers to remain free and unaccountable for their
crimes.
The article explores issues and inferences from the most current re-
search of (Borg & Parker, 2001; Lee, 2005; Litwin, 2004; Puckett &
Lundman, 2003; Regoeczi et al., 2000; Regoeczi & Miethe, 2003) re-
garding the analysis and potential reasons for the increase in unsolved
homicides over past decades in the US.
THE LITERATURE
From the historical literature (Black, 1976; Riedel, Zahn, & Mock,
1985; Silverman & Kennedy, 1997; Sampson & Groves, 1989; Petee et al.,
2001; Blau & Blau, 1982; Messner, 1987, 1986; Messner & Sampson, 1991)
Janet McClellan 55
a set of concerns associated with the plunge in the solvability and there-
fore homicide clearance rates in the United States emerges. These con-
cerns underscore the features of the sources and explanations of the
decline in homicide solvability in the US. The five dominant features
are as follows:
The factors cited by several researchers (Black, 1976; Riedel, Zahn, &
Mock, 1985; Silverman & Kennedy, 1997; Sampson & Groves, 1989;
Petee et al., 2001; Blau & Blau, 1982; Messner, 1987, 1986; Messner &
Sampson, 1991) to be significantly associated with the decline of homi-
cide solvability are categorized as discretionary and non-discretionary
factors. Discretionary factors include elements of a particular homicide
event, such as the victim, community, and victim status believed to im-
pact the investigators deliberation and associated investigative activi-
ties. More specifically, discretionary factors are those features which
may influence the efforts, assumptions, and decision- making processes
of the officer in the investigation of the offense. Non-Discretionary fac-
tors include those features about the case and investigative processes
over which the investigator has no control and which are historically as-
sociated with unsolved homicides.
Discretionary factors indicating victims and conditions strongly as-
sociated with unsolved homicides are as follows:
Regoeczi et al. (2000) cited four major factors responsible for the
decline in the homicide clearance through their analysis of Supplemen-
tal Homicide Research (SHR) data based on 341,369 cases occurring
between 1976 and 1992. Their research noted that the factors having
the greatest negative effect on the homicide solvability included cases
where (1) the perpetrator used a firearm; (2) there was a contaminant
felony; (3) the victim was over 12 years of age; and (4) the victim
was from an ethnic, racial, or cultural minority.1 Therefore, the research
found significant agreement with the several non-discretionary fac-
tors in homicide solvability. Additionally, in their study Regoeczi
and Miethe (2003) found that urban locations (populations over
100,000) provided an additional factor which negatively impacted
the homicide clearance rate. They found that in urban locations those
Janet McClellan 57
and the overworked solved cases as well as those whose caseloads were
not so demanding. The finding would appear to indicate that the organi-
zational nature, workload, or individual ability of an officer had little to
do with homicide clearance further accentuating the effects of discretion-
ary factors influencing homicide solvability. Moreover, the research
would additionally appear to raise questions about the affectability of
education, training, and experience effecting investigative efficiencies.
Litwin (2004) conducted an examination of 2,224 homicides in
Chicago, Illinois which occurred between 1989 and 1991 to analyze the
effect of discretionary and non-discretionary factors on homicide clear-
ance rates. Some of the significant finding of the study were: that female
victims were no more likely to have their homicides cleared by arrest
than the male ones; that the race or ethnicity of the victim did not have
any bearing on the clearance rate, except for Latino victims who were
more than 2.5 times less likely to have their murders cleared/solved;9
“The odds of a case with an older victim (over 10 years of age) de-
creased by about 1.01 times for each additional year of age”10 and there-
fore the older the victim the less likely the homicide was cleared/solved.
Additionally, homicide victims in the Litwin (2004) study who had
prior criminal histories were equally likely to have their cases remain
unsolved as those victims having no criminal history.11 However, homi-
cide cases victims found inside a residence were more likely to be
solved12 with that link was strongly associated with domestic homicides
in the data. In the instances of homicide in which a firearm or other
weapon was used, the presence of such a weapon adversely affected the
solvability factor by a factor of 2.5 and the homicide clearance rate was
further reduced when the offense occurred in conjunction with a con-
taminant felony.13 Homicide cases of unknown circumstances involv-
ing general altercations did not more often involve persons of lower
socio-economic status14 but those that did were significantly less likely
cleared by arrest.
Litwin (2004) additionally found that unsolved homicides were not
affected by a community’s or neighborhood socio-economic instability
or population transity.15 However, neighborhoods that experienced
greater homeownership levels also enjoyed a greater homicide solved/
cleared ratio or rather, the higher the ratio of home ownership, the
greater the homicide solved rate.16
As in the study conducted by Puckett and Lundman (2003) the Litwin
(2004) research also found that the workload of homicide investigators
did not affect the homicide clearance rate.17 The findings led (Litwin,
2004) to the conclusion that the changing nature of homicide and not the
Janet McClellan 59
In the United States, shortly after the end of World War II, there
were significant changes in the nature, culture, and conditions of the
nation.28 During the late 1940s and 1950s, in most instances, families
were established, children were born, and the pursuit of non-violent/
non-war-associated economic industries emerged. During that same
period, a national interstate highway transportation system was estab-
lished, there was a far-reaching expansion of the public education sys-
tem to the booming population, the suburbs were born, the agrarian base
62 JOURNAL OF SECURITY EDUCATION
(U.S. Bureau of Prisons, 2002). The nature of crime and offender were
changing and they continue to change. By way of further example,
CONCLUSIONS
NOTES
1. W. C. Regoeczi, L. W. Kennedy, & R. A. Silverman, “Uncleared homicides: A
Canada/United States comparison.” Homicides Studies, 4, no. 2 (2000): 135-161.
2. W. C. Regoeczi & T. D. Miethe, “Taking on the unknown: A qualitative comparative
analysis of unknown relationship homicides.” Homicide Studies, 7, no. 3 (2003): 211.
3. Ibid., 223-224.
4. M. J. Borg & K. F. Parker, “Mobilizing law in urban areas: The social structure
of homicide clearance rates.” Law and Society Review, 35, no. 2 (2001): 435-466.
5. J. L. Puckett & R. J. Lundman, “Factors affection homicide clearances: Multi-
variate analysis of a more complete conceptual framework.” Journal of Research in
Crime and Delinquency, 40, no. 2 (2003): 181.
6. Ibid., 184.
7. Ibid., 183.
8. Ibid.
9. K. L. Litwin “A multivariate analysis of factors affecting homicide clearances.”
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 41, no. 4 (2004): 327-351.
10. Ibid., 341.
11. Ibid.
12. Ibid.
13. Ibid., 342.
14. Ibid., 342-343.
15. Ibid., 343.
16. Ibid., 347.
17. Ibid., 345.
18. The changing nature and patterns of homicide in the United States are deter-
mined by examining variables indicating the method used to kill the victim, and cir-
cumstances surrounding the death, including variables pertaining to offenders, number
of victims, number of offenders arrested or identified, and disposition of event for
offenders. Variables of victims include the location of the murder, victim drug or
Janet McClellan 67
alcohol use, and the relationship of the victim to the offender. Demographic variables
for the offender and victim including age, sex, race, socio-economic, gender identifica-
tion, and marital status.
19. C. Lee, “The value of life in death: Multiple regression and event history analy-
sis of homicide clearances in Los Angles County.” Journal of Criminal Justice, 33
(2005): 527-534.
20. Ibid., 531.
21. Ibid.
22. Ibid., 552.
23. Ibid., 531.
24. FBI, Crime in the United States (1996). Retrieved from FBI Press Release at
http://sun.soci.niu.edu/~critcrim/crime/ucr.95, October 31, 1996.
25. Lee, “The value of life in death: Multiple regression and event history analysis
of homicide clearances in Los Angles County,” 532.
26. Ibid., 531.
27. Social class: Lower-middle class = Lower-paid professionals, but not manual
laborers (i.e., police officers, non-management office workers, small business owners).
28. Upper-lower class = Blue-collar workers and manual laborers, also known as
the “working class.” Lower-lower class = the homeless and permanently unemployed,
as well as the “working poor.” Retrieved from Wikipedia at http://en.wikipedia.
org/wiki/Social_class, September 10, 2006.
29. D. M. Kennedy (Ed.). The brief American pageant: A history of the republic
(6th ed.). Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin Company, 2004.
30. Berkin, C. B. & Anderson, B. S. The history handbook. Boston, MA: Houghton
Mifflin Company, 2000.
31. Self, R. O. “The boundaries of class in urban America: Street gangs, social
workers, and the meaning of the mean streets.” Reviews in American History, 28, no. 2
(2000): 290-297.
32. Recidivism, for the purpose of this article, is defined as a rearrest or recon-
viction of a felonious offense.
33. Keppel, R. D. & Wies, J. G. “Time and distance as solvability factors in murder
cases.” Journal of Forensic Sciences, 39, no. 2 (1994): 386-401.
34. Ibid., 387.
35. Ibid., 386.
REFERENCES
Berkin, C. B. & Anderson, B. S. The history handbook. Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin
Company, 2000.
Black, D. (1976). The behavior of law. New York, NY: Academic Press, 2000.
Blau, J. & Blau, P. M. “The cost of inequity: Metropolitan structure and violent crime.”
American Sociological Review, 47 (1992): 114-129.
Borg, M. J. & Parker, K. F. “Mobilizing law in urban areas: The social structure of
homicide clearance rates.” Law and Society Review, 35, no. 2 (2001): 435-466.
Bureau of Justice Statistics, June 2002, Prison Statistics, NCU 193427 http://www.ojp.
usdoj.gov/bjs/prisons.html
68 JOURNAL OF SECURITY EDUCATION
Received: 10/05/06
Accepted: 10/27/06
doi:10.1300/J460v02n03_05