UPES

NAME: KRISHNA PARNAMI

BATCH 1 BA LLB (SPE.ENERGY)
SEMESTER 1
ROLL NUMBER: 53
SAP ID: 500061262
TOPIC: DEMOGRAPHIC TRANISITION

Introduction
 Demographic transition (DT) refers to the transition from
high birth and death rates to lower birth and death rates as a
country or region develops from a pre-industrial to an
industrialized economic system. The theory was proposed in
1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson, who
observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in
industrialized societies over the previous 200 years. Most
developed countries have completed the demographic
transition and have low birth rates; most developing
countries are in the process of this transition. The major
(relative) exceptions are some poor countries, mainly in sub-
Saharan Africa and some Middle Eastern countries, which are
poor or affected by government policy or civil strife, notably,
Pakistan, Palestinian territories, Yemen, and Afghanistan.

The demographic transition model, in isolation, can be taken

to predict that birth rates will continue to go down as
societies grow increasingly wealthy; however, recent data
contradicts this, suggesting that beyond a certain level of
development birth rates increase again. In addition, in the
very long term, the demographic transition should be
reversed via evolutionary pressure for higher fertility and
higher mortality.

The existence of some kind of demographic transition is

widely accepted in the social sciences because of the well-
 established historical correlation linking dropping fertility to
social and economic development. Scholars debate whether
industrialization and higher incomes lead to lower
population, or whether lower populations lead to
industrialization and higher incomes. Scholars also debate to
what extent various proposed and sometimes inter-related
factors such as higher per-capita income, higher female
income, lower mortality, old-age security, and rise of demand
for human capital are involved.
Over the course of human history, there have been many
people who have been interested in the characteristics of the
human population and the future of population growth. After
analyzing how western populations have changed over time,
one pattern was discovered that indicated there was a
connection between population growth and the economic
development of a country. It was observed that in countries
with high standards of living, the population grew at a slow
rate, while in countries with low standards of living, the
population grew more rapidly.

This discovery resulted in the creation of the concept of

demographic transition, which is a series of stages that a
country goes through when transitioning from non-industrial
to industrial. The demographic transition concept involves
four stages that are based on changes to population size and
social behaviours.
 Basically, Demography is the systematic study of population.
The term is of Greek origin and is composed of the two
words, demos (people) and graphing (describe), implying the
description of people. Demography studies the trends and
processes associated with population including – changes in
population size; patterns of births, deaths, and migration;
and the structure and composition of the population, such as
the relative proportions of women, men and different age
groups. There are different varieties of demography,
including formal demography which is a largely quantitative
field, and social demography which focuses on the social,
economic or political aspects of populations. All demographic
studies are based on processes of counting or enumeration –
such as the census or the survey – which involve the
systematic collection of data on the people residing within a
specified territory. Demography is a field that is of special
importance to sociology – in fact, the emergence of sociology
and its successful establishment as an academic discipline
owed a lot to demography. Two different processes
happened to take place at roughly the same time in Europe
during the latter half of the eighteenth century – the
formation of nation-states as the principal form of political
organisation, and the beginnings of the modern science of
statistics. The modern state had begun to expand its role and
functions. It had, for instance, begun to take an active
interest in the development of early forms of public health
management, policing and maintenance of law and order,
 economic policies relating to agriculture and industry,
taxation and revenue generation and the governance of
cities. This new and constantly expanding sphere of state
activity required the systematic and regular collection of
social statistics – or quantitative data on various aspects of
the population and economy. The practice of the collection
of social statistics by the state is in itself much older, but it
acquired its modern form towards the end of the eighteenth
century. The American census of 1790 was probably the first
modern census, and the practice was soon taken up in
Europe as well in the early 1800s. In India, censuses began to
be conducted by the British Indian government between
1867-72, and regular ten yearly (or decennial) censuses have
been conducted since 1881. Independent India continued the
practice, and six decennial censuses have been conducted
since 1951, the most recent being in 2001. The Indian census
is the largest such exercise in the world (since China, which
has a slightly larger population, does not conduct regular
censuses). Demographic data are important for the planning
and implementation of state policies, especially those for
economic development and general public welfare. But when
they first emerged, social statistics also provided a strong
justification for the new discipline of sociology. Aggregate
statistics – or the numerical characteristics that refer to a
large collectively consisting of millions of people – offer a
concrete and strong argument for the existence of social
 phenomena. Even though country-level or state-level
statistics like the number

Historical transition (pre-independence)

•Transition from a regime of nearly equal high birth and
death rates to nearly equal low birth and death rates
• Generally, the death rate begins to decline first but the
birth rate remains high resulting in population growth
• After a lag, the birth rate also begins to fall but the decline
in the death rate continues and population growth continue s
• Over time, decline in the death rate slows down and nearly
stops and the declining birth rate nearly equals the low death
rate so that gradually the growth rate approaches zero
• The population may stay at the low replacement level or
the birth rate may actually fall below the death rate, leading
to slow population decline (incipient decline)
DATA
• The CDR was very high, over 40 per thousand, during early
years of the twentieth century but fell steadily to below 40 in
the 1920s
The life expectancy in India has increased from a low of 20
years during 1911-20 to over 30 during 1931-40
Broadly, there has been a rise of about 10 years in the
expectancy every two decades
Female expectancy had fallen below male expectancy during
the middle of the century but the gap is in favour of females
now; however, this gap is less than that seen in most
countries.

Post-independence transition
• The population pyramid was wide at the bottom
narrowing steeply over age some time ago but by 2001
there occurred clear shrinking at low ages with the bulge
moving upwards suggesting recent fall in fertility.
• The most conspicuous changes are seen in the shares of
the youngest age groups, 0-4 and 5-9.
• In broad terms, the age distribution has shifted towards
middle ages, with fall in the share of the child population
and a corresponding rise in the share of adults.
• The broad age group 15-59 generally labelled as working
ages has gained by over eight points in its share during
1971 to 2001, from 52.0 percent to 60.5 percent (for the
15-64 age group, the increase is from 54.6 percent to 63.6
percent).
• The old ages (60 and above) have also gained but only
marginally, from 6.0 to 8.6 percent (for the 65+ ages, from
3.3 percent to 5.5 percent). Ageing has begun to occur in
India, but at the moment, only just so.
 • Most of this is accounted for by the drop in the young
age dependency ratio and very little by the old age. Clearly,
the requirement of supporting children has come down as
couples now have fewer children than in the past.
• The share of the population in ages 0-6 (that is, below
seven years) shows a steady fall in the recent years, of
about two percentage points per decade.
• The results of the 2011 census revealed that the share of
this age group fell from 16 percent in 2001 to only 13
percent in 2011, a consequence of recent fertility decline.

Problems of Transition
-RURAL-URBAN DIFFERENCES:
The vast majority of the population of India has always lived
in the rural areas, and that continues to be true. The 2001
Census found that 72% of our population still lives in villages,
while 28% is living in cities and towns. However, as Table 5
shows, the urban population has been increasing its share
steadily, from about 11% at the beginning of the twentieth
century to about 28% at the beginning of the twenty-first
century, an increase of about two-and-a-half times. It is not a
question of numbers alone; processes of modern
development ensure that the economic and social
significance of the agrarian-rural way of life declines relative
to the significance of the industrial-urban way of life. This has
been broadly true all over the world, and it is true in India as
well. Agriculture used to be by far the largest contributor to
the country’s total economic production, but today it only
contributes about one-fourth of the gross domestic product.
While the majority of our people live in the rural areas and
make their living out of agriculture, the relative economic
value of what they produce has fallen drastically. Moreover,
more and more people who live in villages may no longer
work in agriculture or even in the village. Rural people are
increasingly engaged in non-farm rural occupations like
transport services, business enterprises or craft
manufacturing. If they are close enough, then they may
travel daily to the nearest urban centre to work while
continuing to live in the village. Mass media and
communication channels are now bringing images of urban
life styles and patterns of consumption into the rural areas.
Consequently, urban norms and standards are becoming well
known even in the remote villages, creating new desires and
aspirations for consumption. Mass transit and mass
communication are bridging the gap between the rural and
urban areas. Even in the past, the rural areas were never
really beyond the reach of market forces and today they are
being more closely integrated into the consumer market.

-Variations in growth rate of population:

The most conspicuous changes are seen in the shares of the
youngest age groups, 0-4 and 5-9.

In broad terms, the age distribution has shifted towards

middle ages, with fall in the share of the child population and
a corresponding rise in the share of adults.
The broad age group 15-59 generally labelled as working ages
has gained by over eight points in its share during 1971 to
2001, from 52.0 percent to 60.5 percent

The old ages (60 and above) have also gained but only
marginally, from 6.0 to 8.6 percent

Regional Variations in the Transition:

The transition has not been uniform across the country.

Both fertility and mortality differ considerably across states

(and also within states) as a result the pace of transition has
also varied.

Positive aspects of transition

-A third of India’s population was below 15 years of age in
2000. In 2020, the average Indian will be only 29 years
old, compared with an average age of 37 in China and the
United States, 45 in Western Europe, and 48 in Japan. This
implies a large and growing labour force, which can
deliver unexpected benefits in terms of growth and
prosperity. The ‘demographic dividend’ results from an
increase in the proportion of workers relative to non-
workers in the population. In terms of age, the working
population is roughly that between 15 and 64 years of age.
This working age group must support itself as well as
those outside this age group (i.e., children and elderly
people) who are unable to work and are therefore
dependents. Changes in the age structure due to the
demographic transition lower the ‘dependency ratio’, or
the ratio of non-working age to working-age population,
thus creating the potential for generating growth. But this
potential can be converted into actual growth only if the
rise in the working age group is accompanied by
increasing levels of education and employment. If the new
entrants to the labour force are not educated then their
productivity remains low. If they remain unemployed,
then they are unable to earn at all and become dependents
rather than earners. Thus, changing age structure by itself
cannot guarantee any benefits unless it is properly utilised
through planned development. The real problem is in
defining the dependency ratio as the ratio of the non-
working age to working-age population, rather than the
ratio of non-workers to workers. The difference between
the two is determined by the extent of unemployment and
underemployment, which keep a part of the labour force
out of productive work. This difference explains why some
countries are able to exploit the demographic advantage
while others are not. India is indeed facing a window of
opportunity created by the demographic dividend. The
effect of demographic trends on the dependency ratio
defined in terms of age groups is quite visible. The total
dependency ratio fell from 79 in 1970 to 64 in 2005. But
the process is likely to extend well into this century with
the age-based dependency ratio projected to fall to 48 in
2025 because of continued fall in the proportion of
children and then rise to 50 by 2050 because of an
increase in the proportion of the aged.
-. According to the Census of 2001- 2011, India's
population has grown at 17.7 per cent as against 21.5 per
cent in the decade. 
The country's population at present is 1.21 billion, an
increase of 181.96 million since 2001. What is even more
comforting for the country's planners is the fact that
female growth rate has been better than male growth
rate. 
The male population has gone up by 90.97 million, against
a rise of 90.99 in the population of females over the last 10
years.
The rate of growth of the female population is 18.3 per
cent, while the male growth rate stands at 17.1 per cent,
according to the final census released by Union Home
Minister Sushilkumar Shinde on Tuesday.
-While there has been a 3.8 per cent drop in the overall
growth rate, there is still scope for improvement as 14
states and Union Territories have registered over 20 per
cent growth in population figures. 

- Literacy in India has been significantly improved from the

past and the states with low literacy rate in the past had
improvement in their literacy rate.

Objective
The scientific nature of demography proves the following
four objectives of demography.
1. To achieve knowledge about the size, composition,
organization and distribution of the population.
2. To describe the past evolution present distribution
and future changes in the population of an area.
3. To enquire the trends of population and its
relationships with the different aspects of social
organization in an area.
4. To protect the future demographic evaluation and its
probable consequences.

Conclusion
Thus it is clear from the above four objectives of
demography performs all the functions and characteristics
 of a science such as enquiry of a cause and effect
relationships also prediction about the future. It is factual
and universal. It is a positive science and studies facts both
qualitatively as well as quantitatively.