Ipresas Flood User Guide

USER GUIDE
iPresas Flood
Version 1.0.3
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................ 5
2 THEORY & BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................. 6
2.1 DEFINITIONS ...................................................................................................................................... 6

2.2 THE RISK ANALYSIS PROCESS .................................................................................................................. 7
2.3 EVENT TREES AND INFLUENCE DIAGRAMS ................................................................................................. 7
2.4 SIMPLIFIED RISK MODEL ........................................................................................................................ 9
2.5 COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................... 11
3 GRAPHICAL INTERFACE ............................................................................................................... 13
3.1 PARTS OF THE GRAPHICAL INTERFACE .................................................................................................... 13

3.2 FILE MENU ....................................................................................................................................... 14
4 RISK MODEL COMPONENTS ........................................................................................................ 16
4.1 NEW MODEL .................................................................................................................................... 16

4.2 RIVER FLOODING IN UNREGULATED RIVER ............................................................................................... 17
4.2.1 Season node ........................................................................................................................ 17
4.2.2 Moment node ..................................................................................................................... 17
4.2.3 Floods node......................................................................................................................... 18
4.2.4 Q river node ........................................................................................................................ 19
4.2.5 Fatalities node .................................................................................................................... 20
4.2.6 Damages node .................................................................................................................... 21
4.3 RIVER FLOODING IN REGULATED RIVER (WITH DAM) ................................................................................. 22
4.3.1 Season and Moment nodes ................................................................................................ 23
4.3.2 Floods node ......................................................................................................................... 23
4.3.3 Previous WL ........................................................................................................................ 23
4.3.4 Gate op. node ..................................................................................................................... 24
4.3.5 Routing node ...................................................................................................................... 26
4.3.6 Failure node ........................................................................................................................ 28
4.3.7 Q failure node ..................................................................................................................... 30
4.3.8 FatalitiesF node .................................................................................................................. 31
4.3.9 DamagesF node .................................................................................................................. 33
4.3.10 FatalitiesNF node ........................................................................................................... 34
4.3.11 FatalitiesNF node ........................................................................................................... 34
5 RISK RESULTS .............................................................................................................................. 35
5.1 COMPUTE RISK ................................................................................................................................. 35

5.2 RESULTS MANAGER............................................................................................................................ 35
5.3 PROBABILITY AND RISK ....................................................................................................................... 36
5.4 SHOW LISTING .................................................................................................................................. 38
5.5 EXPORT LISTING ................................................................................................................................ 39
5.6 COUNT BRANCHES ............................................................................................................................. 39
2 iPresas Flood software – User Guide

5.7 F-N CURVE ...................................................................................................................................... 40
5.8 F-D CURVE ...................................................................................................................................... 42
5.9 F-N GRAPH ...................................................................................................................................... 43
6 COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................. 45
6.1 ADD INVESTMENT ............................................................................................................................. 45

6.2 INVESTMENTS MANAGER .................................................................................................................... 46
6.3 COST – BENEFIT GRAPH ...................................................................................................................... 47
6.4 ECONOMIC INDICATORS ...................................................................................................................... 48
iPresas Flood software – User Guide 3

1 Introduction
iPresas is a software for flood risk analysis. iPresas Flood is a simplified version of the software
iPresas Calc, designed to carry out flood risk analyses in urban areas that may be affected by
river flooding and to introduce these results in a Cost Benefit Analysis.
In the following pages, an introduction to the theory and background supporting the software is
given, the details of using the software are explained and an example is solved using iPresas
Flood, which analyze three potential flood risk reduction investments.
For further information (downloads, iPresas full version, etc.), please visit our website
(www.ipresas.com) or contact us by email ([email protected]).

2 Theory & background
2.1 Definitions
Failure probability
In the context of flood risk analysis, the concept of failure can be applied to any flood defence
infrastructure and flood management system, such as the catastrophic failure of a dam or the
failure of dikes, and it may also include any event with negative consequences. Conceptually, the
failure probability can be defined as the product of:
 The probability of occurrence of certain loads (for instance a high reservoir level or
an earthquake of a certain magnitude)
 The conditional probability of failure of flood management system, given the load.
Consequences
There are several adverse effects or consequences associated to urban flooding:
 Direct economic damages: caused by the direct impact of the flooding and can be of
great magnitude. They may include the damage to the flood defence infrastructure.
 Indirect economic damages: are the damages which happen in the aftermath of the
event, including the interruption of economic activities in the area.
 Damages to people: the most important damage is the loss of life, but other damages
such as number of injured people can also be included in the analyses.
 Other damages: environmental damages, social distress, loss of reputation, damages to

historical or cultural heritage, etc. All of them are difficult to quantify numerically and are
usually treated qualitatively.
It is common practice in risk modeling to include two consequence terms in the analysis: one
accounting for all economic damages and another one for loss of life. Hence, two risk results are
obtained: economic and societal risk.
Risk
Risk is a combination of three concepts: what can happen, how likely it is to happen and what its
consequences are. In Quantitative Flood Risk Analyze, this concept is usually reduced to one
single number: the product of the probability of the flood event and its consequences.

2.2 The risk analysis process
The risk analysis process has 3 parts (Figure 1):
 Load analysis: Definition of the probability of loading scenarios. Loading scenarios

include flood events, earthquakes or any other event which can pose a risk to the flood
defence infrastructure, affecting the urban area. In the iPresas Flood model, two sources
of flood hazard are considered: river flooding due to structural collapse and river flooding
due to the natural flow regime of the river. To take into account other loading scenarios,
iPresas Calc can be used.
 System response analysis: Definition of the failure probabilities (given a loading

condition), for all failure modes of the flood defence infrastructures or flood management
system. In case of river flooding, the Flood model allows to consider a single failure mode
(overtopping1). If more failure modes are to be modeled, iPresas Calc can be used.
 Consequence analysis: Estimation of the consequences that would happen in all the
considered scenarios. The iPresas Flood model includes economic consequences and
loss of life.
Figure 1: The risk analysis process.
2.3 Event trees and influence diagrams

iPresas software is based on the use of event trees for its calculations. However, for a more
compact representation, input data is made through influence diagrams.
Influence diagrams are made of nodes (where data are introduced) and connectors (which
specify the relationships between nodes), as shown in Figure 2. The first node is the head of the
diagram.
1 Overtopping is, by itself, not a failure mode. The overtopping failure mode of the iPresas Flood model encompasses
in a simplified way all failure modes that could be triggered by an overtopping. More detailed analysis can be carried
out with iPresas Calc.

Figure 2: Parts of an influence diagram.
Figure 3 shows how influence diagrams and event trees are linked. In this example the influence
diagram has 3 nodes. The first node represents a variable or event with 2 possible outcomes, and
so is transformed into 2 branches of the event tree. In the same way, the second and third nodes
represent variables with 3 and 2 possible outcomes, respectively. Figure 3 shows how the
software starts with a 3-node diagram and it turns into an event tree of 2x3x2=12 branches.
Figure 3: Relationship between influence diagrams and event trees.

Each sub-branch of the event tree has a certain conditional probability and a value (outcome) for
the variable (event) it represents. In general, the probabilities of all the sub-branches of any given
node must add up to 1.
2.4 Simplified risk model

This user guide presents iPresas Flood, which is a simplified version of the iPresas Calc
software. This version is adapted to simplify the computation of flood risk in urban areas due to
river flooding (regulated river or unregulated river). Hence, it allows to develop a model to
compute flood risk due to dam failure, by considering overtopping as the unique failure mode.
Two predefined models are set up, which are shown in Figure 4 and Figure 5.
The components of the first influence diagram (Figure 4), the simplified model for the analysis of
river flooding without any reservoir upstream, are:
Season
Moment Q river Fatalities Damages
Floods
Figure 4: Predefined influence diagram for river flooding (unregulated river).
 Loads: This part of the model (blue nodes) is used to specify the flood events due to the
natural flow regime of the river that may result in flooding at the urban area. This part
comprises 3 nodes:
 Season: Definition of two time periods within the year to specify different
conditions for consequence estimation.
 Moment: Definition of two periods during the day to specify different conditions
for consequence estimation.
 Floods: Definition of the range of return periods of the flood events to be

considered.

 System response: This node (red node, Q river) introduces the peak discharges
(QMax) at the urban area due to the defined flood events.
 Consequences: This part (green nodes) is used to calculate consequences:
 Fatalities: Relationship between peak discharge and loss of life in a flood event.
 Damages: Relationship between peak discharge and economic consequences

in a flood event.
The components of the second influence diagram (Figure 5), the simplified model for the analysis
of river flooding when the river is regulated by a dam located upstream the study area, are:
Season Previous WL
Q Failure FatalitiesF DamagesF
Moment Gate op. Failure
FatalitiesNF DamagesNF
Floods Routing
Figure 5: Predefined influence diagram for river flooding (regulated river).
 Loads: This part of the model (blue nodes) is used to specify the maximum water level
which will be reached, as a function of floods, starting pool level and gate functionality.
This part also includes nodes to specify time categories. Therefore, this part comprises 6
nodes:
 Season: Definition of two periods within the year to specify different conditions
 Moment: Definition of two periods during the day to specify different conditions
 Floods: Definition of the range of return periods of the floods to consider.
 Previous WL: Specifies the starting reservoir levels when the floods reach the
reservoir.

 Gate op.: This node is used to specify the gate reliability of all the dam’s outlets.
 Routing: This node calculates the maximum water level and discharges for no
failure scenarios as a function of floods, starting pool level and gate functionality.
 System response: These nodes (red colour) introduce the failure probability of the dam
due to overtopping, as a function of maximum water level and dam type. Standardized
fragility curves for earthfill, arch and gravity dams are used. This version of the software
only allows for this single failure mode to be considered. In order to analyze several
failure modes, iPresas Calc can be used. There are 2 nodes:
 Failure: Calculation of failure probability based on fragility curves.
 Q failure: Calculation of peak break discharge as a function of maximum water

level through the use of a simplified equation.
 Consequences: This part (green nodes) is used to calculate flood consequences:
 FatalitiesF: Relationship between peak break discharge and loss of life in a dam
failure scenario.
 DamagesF: Relationship between peak break discharge and economic

consequences in a dam failure scenario.
 FatalitiesNF: Relationship between peak routed discharge in non-failure cases

and loss of life.
 DamagesNF: Relationship between peak routed discharge in non-failure cases

and economic consequences.
Depending on the case study, one or several of the aforementioned simplified models may be
used to compute flood risk in terms of societal or economic risk.
2.5 Cost Benefit Analysis

In this software, quantitative risk results can be introduced in a Cost Benefit Analysis to include risk
reduction benefits. Cost Benefit Analysis is the main economic project appraisal technique and
commonly used by governments and public authorities for public investments. The basic idea is to
render comparable all the costs and benefits of an investment accruing over time and in different
sectors from the viewpoint of society. It is used to organize and present the costs and benefits, and
inherent tradeoffs, and finally estimate the cost-efficiency of projects.

In general, in this type of analysis there is a lack of data of the benefits introduced by natural hazards
risk reduction investments. This lack of info has produced that, in some cases, decision makers are
more reticent to invest in risk reduction measures.
Quantification of risk reduction benefits aims to promote this type of investments, endorsing a more
robust decision making process. The benefits introduces by a risk reduction investment can be
quantified like:
Flood risk in the base case – Flood risk with the investment

3 Graphical interface
3.1 Parts of the graphical interface
Figure 6: Main parts of the graphical interface.
The iPresas Flood graphical interface has three main parts (Figure 6):
 Menu and toolbar: They allow creating, saving and opening files. It is also possible to run a
risk model and obtain results that are introduced in a Cost Benefit Analysis. The following
menus are available:
 File menu: It is used to create, open and save iPresas files. The options of this
menu are explained in detail in section 3.2.
 Risk computation menu: It is used to run the risk model and to manage risk
results. When the computations have finished, this menu allows obtaining failure
probabilities and risk-results. The options of this menu are explained in detail in
section 4 and 5.
 Cost Benefit Analysis menu: It allows defining the investments analyzed and
comparing them in a Cost-Benefit Analysis, including risk reduction benefits. The
options of this menu are explained in detail in section 6.
 Options menu: The language of the program can be changed with this menu.
Available languages are Spanish and English.

 Help menu: It is used to obtain detailed data about iPresas program and their
authors. It also includes a link to this manual.
 Diagram window: It is used to select nodes of the risk model in order to introduce the
required data.
 Node window: In this part, data for each node is introduced in the risk model. Input data
are explained in detail in section 4.
3.2 File menu

The file menu has the structure shown in Figure 7.
Figure 7: Structure of file menu.
The main options of this menu are:
 New: Create a new iPresas file with extension .rsk.
 Open…: Open a previously created risk model. Risk models created with this software
have the extension .rsk.
 Save: Changes in the risk model can be saved in the current working file. Risk models
created with this software have the extension .rsk.
 Save as…: The risk model can be saved in a different file. Risk models created with this
software have the extension .rsk.
 Export diagram…: Export the influence diagram of the risk model in an image file with
Windows Metafile format (extension of .wmf).
 General data…: This menu is used to define the main data of the economic analysis for
the investments comparison. Data that should be introduced in this menu are shown in

Figure 8. These data are the analysis period, the economic discount rate to convert cost
to present values, the economic units and the units to quantify social consequences.
Figure 8: General data menu

4 Risk model components
4.1 New model
Figure 9: Toolbar button. New model.
It allows creating a new risk model with one of the two predefined structures included by default in this
program (see Figure 9):
Figure 10: Toolbar button. New model.
 River flooding in a regulated river: Open a previously created risk model for the analysis
of river flooding in case studies where flooding may occur due to the natural flow regime
of the river. The risk model architecture is described in section 4.2.
 River flooding in a unregulated river: Open a previously created risk model for the
analysis of river flooding in case studies where structural measures such as dams or
levees do exist. The architecture of this simplified risk model is described in section 4.3.
Next, the data that must be introduced in each node of the risk model are explained for each
simplified model.
In every risk model node, new data are introduced or a new variable is computed with the data
introduced in previous nodes. So, all the nodes have input data or variables and an output variable
computed with them. When input data are introduced in the risk model, it is important to pay attention
to the names assigned to the variables. These names must be maintained in the spreadsheets used
to introduce the model data. For example, the maximum water pool level reached during the flood
event must always have the same name in all the spreadsheets, MaxWL.

4.2 River flooding in unregulated river
In this section, nodes of the simplified model in iPresas Flood to analyze flood risk in urban areas due
to the natural flow regime of the river (Figure 11) are described.
Figure 11: Predefined influence diagram for river flooding (unregulated river)
4.2.1 Season node

This is the initial node of the risk model. In iPresas Flood, four time categories are considered for
estimating consequences of flooding. These categories result from the definition of two different
periods during the year, and another two different periods of time during the day. These time
categories allow incorporating seasonal and daily variations on population at risk or other differences
on flood consequence and they are introduced within the nodes Season and Moment. The Season
node allows dividing the year in two seasons (summer and winter), introducing the probability of each
period. The sum of both probabilities must be equal to 1. They should be introduced as shown in
Figure 12. Default values for both periods are 0.5.
Figure 12: Node window in node Season.
4.2.2 Moment node

As it has been described in the previous node, the second node of the risk model includes the
probabilities of being in two established periods of time during the day (for example, from 08:00 to
20:00, and from 20:01 to 07:59). These probabilities may differ depending on the season defined in
the first node. For each season, day and nights probabilities must be introduced as shown in Figure
13. In each season, the sum of both probabilities must be equal to 1.

Figure 13: Node window in node Moment.
4.2.3 Floods node

In this node, the minimum and maximum return period of the floods considered in the analysis
must be introduced. With the inverse of the return period, the program estimates the Annual
Exceedance Probability (AEP), which is the output variable of this node.
The return period range introduced is divided by the software in logarithmically equidistant values,
which define branches of the risk model. So, the calculations of the following nodes are made I
each one. By default, the division is made in 21 branches, following the equations shown in
Figure 14.
Figure 14: Discretization of the flood return periods range made in the Floods node.
In river flooding analyses due to natural flow regime, it is common practice to include a range of return
periods from 1 to 10,000 or 100,000 years with the aim of being able to compare the resulting flood
risk with the situation with structural measures. In the example included with the software, the
considered return periods range from 1 to 10,000 years as shown in Figure 15.

Figure 15: Node window of Floods node.
4.2.4 Q river node

This node is used to include input data on peak flow discharges for a series of return periods
within the range given in the previous node. Therefore, this node introduces a relationship
between annual exceedance probabilities and peak flow discharges of the river at the study site.
Results from hydraulic calculations are included in the risk model as input data in this node using
a spreadsheet, as shown in Figure 16.
Figure 16: Node window of Qriver node.
Input data must be introduced in this node window as follows:
A. Name: Name of the node that will be used in the risk model diagram. By default, this
name is Q river.
B. File: File which contains all information regarding peak flow discharges (in a column
named QMax) and related annual probabilities of exceedance (in a column named
AEP). The name of the variables should be introduced in the first row of the
spreadsheet as shown in Figure 17.
C. Sheets: Selection of the sheet of the spreadsheet where the data is introduced.

Figure 17: Example of input data in Q river node.
4.2.5 Fatalities node

This node is used to estimate loss of life due to pluvial flooding using the peak river discharges
computed in the previous node. Therefore, this node introduces a relationship between disharge
(QMax) and potential fatalities (Fatalities).
Potential fatalities may be obtained using different methodologies for estimating flood
consequences due to pluvial flooding. They are based on hydraulic characteristics of the flood,
existing warning times, population at risk, people exposed to the flood, etc.
Input data that must be introduced in this node window are:
A. Name: Name of the node. By default, this name is Fatalities.
B. File: Spreadsheet which contains all information regarding potential loss of life for
each time category and runoff rate. As shown in Figure 19, this spreadsheet should
include the computed loss of life for the four cases of season and moment of the day
through the columns Season and Moment.

Figure 18: Node window of Fatalities node.
Figure 19: Node window of Fatalities node.
4.2.6 Damages node

This node is used to estimate the economic consequences of flooding. Therefore, this node
introduces a relation between economic consequences (Damages) and river discharge (QMax).
This relation can be obtained using different methodologies for economic consequences
estimation. They are based on depth-damage curves, land use values and flooded areas within
the study area.
Input data that must be introduced in this node window are (Figure 20):
A. Name: Name of the node. By default, this name is Damages.

B. File: Spreadsheet which contains all information regarding potential loss of life for
each time category and runoff rate. As shown in Figure 21, this spreadsheet only
needs two columns to relate river discharge and potential flooding consequences.
Figure 20: Node window of Damages node.
Figure 21: Node window of Damages node.
4.3 River flooding in regulated river (with dam)

In this section, the simplified risk model for the analysis of river flooding including structural
collapse of flood defence infrastructures (in this case, a dam located upstream the urban area) is
described.

Figure 22: Predefined influence diagram for river flooding (regulated river).
4.3.1 Season and Moment nodes

As explained in Sections 4.2.1 and 4.2.2, the first two nodes are used to establish the four predefined
time categories with the aim of including different flood consequences in terms of loss of life
depending on the moment of the day or season.
4.3.2 Floods node
As explained in Section 4.2.3., the minimum and maximum return period of the floods considered in
the analysis must be introduced. With the inverse of the return period, the program estimates the
Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP), which is the output variable of this node.
4.3.3 Previous WL
The function of this node is to introduce the previous water levels in the reservoir when the flood
begins. Hence, a spreadsheet is introduced to indicate the probability (Prob) of different pool levels in
the reservoir (PrevWL). This probability distribution can be computed based on the historical register
of pool levels. The sum of the all the probabilities must be equal to 1. The structure of this
spreadsheet is shown in Figure 23.
Figure 23: Example of input data in Previous WL node.
Changing the value introduced in this node, the effect of a change in the previous pool levels in
the reservoir on the overtopping failure probability can be evaluated. These data are introduced in
the node window, which is in the left part of the program and is shown in Figure 24.

Figure 24: Node window of Previous WL node.
4.3.4 Gate op. node

This node is used to introduce the gate functionality of each outlet work available in the dam for flood
routing. The functionality of an outlet work is the number of its elements that will work correctly for
routing during a flood event. These elements can be the spillway’s vanes or conducts of a bottom
outlet.
The functionality probability values are estimated using the elements’ individual reliability of each
outlet works with a binomial distribution. In this software, standardized reliability values have been
proposed. Five levels are proposed depend on the outlet work situation:
 95%: When the outlet is new or has been very well maintained.
 85%: When the outlet is well maintained but has had some minor problems
 75%: When the outlet has some problems.
 50%: When the outlet is unreliable for flood routing.
 0%: When the outlet is not reliable at all or it has never been used.
If an outlet is considered to have 100% reliability (for instance, an uncontrolled spillway were clogging
is not an issue), it must not be included in this node.
The effect of gate functionality on risk due to overtopping can be analyzed. For instance, the effect of
an improvement of spillway gates may be obtained. These data are introduced in the node window,
which is in the left part of the program and is shown in Figure 25.

Figure 25: Node window of Gate op. node.
name is Gate op.
B. Add: This button is used to introduce a new outlet work in the risk model.
C. Outlets: In this part of the node, the individual reliability of the elements of each
considered outlet work is introduced. The necessary data are:
C.1. Output var.: Chosen name for the output variable, which in this node is the
functionality of each outlet works. For example, Op_gate.
C.2. Button : It is used to eliminated an added outlet work.
C.3. Number: In this node, the number of elements of each outlet work is introduced.
These elements are the vanes or the conducts, depending on the outlet work
structure.
C.4. Reliability menu: This drop down menu defines the individual reliability for each
outlet work depending on its state, as it has been explained previously.
The dam of the example included with the software has a 1-vane spillway (SpAv) and a bottom
outlet with one conduit (BOAv), both with individual reliability of 95%, as it is shown in Figure 25.
The name used for the output variable of each bottom outlet must be the same that it is used in
the Flood routing spreadsheet.

4.3.5 Routing node
In this node, the results of flood routing simulations in the reservoir are introduced for the
analyzed flood events (node Floods). The needed results are the maximum water level reached
in the reservoir during the flood routing (MaxWL) and the peak outflow discharge (QNo_Fail).
Previous computations of flood routing in the reservoir are needed for the range of flood events and
for all combinations of outlet works functionality. For each combination, the maximum water level
reached in the reservoir and the peak outflow discharge is needed.
These computations are introduced in the risk model using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet (with
extension .xls) as shown in Figure 26.
Figure 26: Structure of Microsoft Excel spreadsheet (.xls) used in the example to introduce flood routing data.
In this spreadsheet, each row shows the results of a single flood routing simulation. It is necessary to
have enough rows to represent all the combinations of inflow floods and outlet works functionality.
Furthermore, there cannot be repeated combinations of input variables.
The first row of this spreadsheet must have the name of the input variables that are used in the
flood routing and they must be equal to the name introduced in the different nodes of the risk
model (PrevWL, AEP and all the variables introduced in the Gate Op. node). The columns with
the results should be labeled as MaxWL and QNo_Fail. Columns of this spreadsheet for the
example included with the software are:

 AEP: It is the annual exceedance probability of the considered flood events. It is
directly computed with the inverse of the return period of the flood. It is advisable to
introduce as many flood events as possible, since the software interpolates the
output variables results between these events, so if many flood situations are
analyzed, the results will be more precise. The return period of these flood situations
must be inside the range of floods defined in the third node (in this example, from 1
to 10,000 years). With this data, the software interpolate output variables for each
case of annual exceedance probability obtained in the Floods node, as shown in
Figure 27.
 PrevWL: It is used to introduce the previous level in the reservoir when the flood
begins.
 Op_gate: It defines the number of elements of each outlet work that is working in
each flood routing case. There must be a column for each outlet work introduced in
the node Gate op. and their names must be equal to the output variables introduced
in this node.
 MaxWL: In this column, the maximum pool water level reached in each flood routing
simulation is introduced. The name of this column should be the same input variable
introduced in subsequent nodes: Failure and Q failure nodes.
 QNo_Fail: This column is used to introduce the peak outflow discharge for each flood
routing simulation. This discharge is the sum of the outflow discharge through all the
outlet works and the outflow over the dam crest in overtopping cases, so it is the total
downstream discharge in each case. The name of this column must be equal to the
name introduced in the input variable of the consequence nodes.

Figure 27: Output variables interpolation made in the Routing node.
These data are introduced in the node window, which is in the left part of the program and is
shown in Figure 28.
Figure 28: Node window of Routing node.
4.3.6 Failure node
This node is used to calculate the failure probability of the dam due to overtopping 2 depending on
the maximum water level reached in the reservoir for each flood event. In this node, the crest
level must be introduced, along with dam type with the aim of estimating the failure probability
based on fragility curves.
2 Overtopping is, by itself, not a failure mode. The overtopping failure mode of the iPresas Flood model encompasses
in a simplified way all failure modes that could be triggered by an overtopping. More detailed analysis can be carried
out with iPresas Calc.

These curves depend on the type of dam and have been developed based on bibliographic
research and expert judgment. These curves estimate the failure probability depending on the
overtopping height. Figure 29 illustrates these three curves.
100%
90%
80%
70%
Failure Probability
60%
50%
40%
30%
20% Earthfill Dams
10%
Gravity Dams
Arch Dams
0%
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Overtopping Height (m)
Figure 29: General curves used to obtain the failure probability depending on the overtopping height.
If input data in terms of dam crest level are modified in this node, then the effect on risk can be
obtained.
Figure 30 shows the node window for this node of the influence diagram. In the given example,
the dam crest level is located at 1048 masl.
Figure 30: Node window of Failure node.
name is Failure.

B. Crest level: Crest level of the dam.
C. Type: In this node the type of dam is specified (embankment, gravity or arch dam).
This version of iPresas software estimates the probability for one failure mode, overtopping
failure. In order to compute the failure probability of other failure modes, it is necessary to use the
complete version, iPresas Calc.
4.3.7 Q failure node

This node estimates the peak discharge in case of failure due to overtopping in the dam.
Estimated values are adapted from the Froehlich3 formula, which relates water level in the
reservoir and peak break discharge.
This node requires a reference point which relates a value of the peak break discharge and a water
level in the reservoir. This pair of values must have been previously computed using a dam break
hydraulic model and it may be found in the dam safety files, for instance, in Emergency Action Plans.
These data are introduced in the node window, which is in the left part of the program and is shown in
Figure 31.
Figure 31: Node window of Q failure node.
The data that must be introduced in this node window is:
name is Q failure.

B. Base level: Level of the dam foundation.
C. Ref. level: Water level in the reservoir for which the peak break discharge has been
previously computed.
D. Ref. discharge: Peak break discharge obtained for the pool water level introduced in
the previous point.
In the example included with the software, the level of the dam foundation is 976 masl.
Furthermore, according to the available information in the Emergency Action Plan, the peak break
discharge when the water pool level reaches the crest level is 116,870 m³/s.
4.3.8 FatalitiesF node

This node is used to estimate loss of life produced by dam failure (FatalitiesF) using the peak break
discharge computed in the previous node (QFail). Therefore, this node relates the potential number of
fatalities to a series of peak break discharges.
This relation can be obtained using different methodologies for loss of life estimation. They are based
on data obtained with hydraulic modeling of dam break flood wave. This data may be available in dam
safety files, for instance, in Emergency Action Plans.
This node may be used to evaluate risk reduction by non-structural measures concerning public
education in terms of flood risk or an improvement in coordination between emergency agencies.
Input data from loss of life estimations must be included using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet with
extension .xls. In the example included with the software, the data is introduced as shown in Figure
32. The first row of this spreadsheet should include the name of the variables which are used to
identify potential consequences and they must be equal to the name introduced in the different nodes
of the risk model. The columns of this spreadsheet must be:
 Season / moment: Loss of life estimations might differ for each time category.
 QFail: Series of peak break discharge whose loss of life has been computed. The name
of this column must be equal to the name introduced in the output variable of the node Q
failure.
 FatalitiesF: Each row represents the results of loss of life estimations obtained for each
floode vent due to failure (identified by the corresponding peak discharge).

These data are introduced in the node window, which is in the left part of the program and is
shown in the Figure 32.
Figure 32: Structure of Microsoft Excel spreadsheet (.xls) used in the example to introduce failure loss of life.
Figure 33: Node window of FatalitiesF node.
name is FatalitiesF.
B. File: Path of the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet (.xls) with the failure loss of life results.
As shown in Figure 32, this spreadsheet should include the computed loss of life for
the four cases of season and moment of the day through the columns Season and
Moment..

C. Sheets: Sheet of the Microsoft Excel file which contains the failure loss of failure
results.
4.3.9 DamagesF node

This node is used to estimate economic consequences due to dam failure (DamagesF) using the
peak break discharge computed in Q failure node (QFail). Therefore, this node introduces a relation
between failure economic consequences and peak break discharge.
This relation can be obtained using different methodologies for economic consequences estimation.
They are based on data obtained with hydraulic modeling of dam break flood wave and depth-
damage curves. Furthermore, dam destruction cost should also be included.
Economic consequences for different flood scenarios due to dam failure should be included in a
Microsoft Excel spreadsheet with extension .xls as it has been described in the previous node. In the
example included with the software, the data is introduced as shown in Figure 34.
Figure 34: Structure of Microsoft Excel spreadsheet (.xls) used in the example to introduce failure economic
consequences.
The first row of this spreadsheet must have the name of the variables which are used in this
discharge-consequences relation and they must be equal to the name introduced in the different
nodes of the risk model. The columns of this spreadsheet for the example included with the software
are:
 QFail: Values of peak break discharges whose economic consequences have been
computed. The name of this column must be equal to the name introduced in the output
variable of the node Qbr.
 DamagesF: Each row represents the results of economic consequences obtained for
each peak discharge. In general, input data are introduced in euros, although other
monetary units can be used.
These data are introduced in the node window as shown in Figure 35.

Figure 35: Node window of DamagesF node.
name is CT(Qbr).
B. File: Path of the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet (.xls) with the failure economic
consequences results.
C. Sheets: Sheet of the Microsoft Excel file which contains the failure economic
consequences results.
4.3.10 FatalitiesNF node

Nodes FatalitiesF and FatalitiesNF present the same node window structure. The difference relies on
the required input data. In this case, potential fatalities due to non-failure scenarios have to be
included in this node.
For that purpose, loss of life estimations (FatalitiesNF) for different flow discharges (QNo_Fail) for
non-failure cases are obtained in advance and included in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet as it has
been described above. However, in this node, peak discharges must represent flow rates from flood
routing.
4.3.11 FatalitiesNF node

Nodes DamagesF and DamagesNF also present an equivalent node window structure. In this node,
estimations on economic costs (DamagesNF) due to flooding by peak discharges from flood routing
(QNo_Fail) are included. Hence, this node is used to compute economic consequences in non-failure
cases.

5 Risk Results
5.1 Compute risk

The next step after introducing the data of each node is running the analysis of the risk model. It
can be done with the option Analysis  Run analysis or with the button of the toolbar “Run
analysis” (Figure 36).
Figure 36: Toolbar button: Run analysis
When this option is chosen, a new dialog is shown (Figure 37) and it requires the following data:
A. Results name: Name for these computations. This name is used later to display risk
results and risk graphs for this case.
B. Comments: Description or annotations that will be saved along with these results.
When the OK button is clicked, risk model computation begins based on the defined influence
diagram.
Figure 37: Dialog for running the analysis.
5.2 Results manager

It is used to show the different results obtained with the risk model. It is shown when the menu
option Risk computation Risk results manager is clicked or with the toolbar button Risk results
manager (Figure 38).
Figure 38: Toolbar button for showing the Risk results manager window.

When this option is chosen, the results manager window (Figure 39) is shown. This table shows
all the results computed with this risk model with the option Run analysis (Section 5.1). In this list,
the data shown for each computed result is: its name, its computation time and date and the
comments introduced when the computation was made. Furthermore, when a result is right-
clicked, the risk model used to compute this result can be loaded in the diagram window (with
Load risk model) or this result can be removed from the file (with the option Delete result).
Figure 39: Risk results manager dialog.
5.3 Probability and risk

When the analysis has been run correctly, the flooding probability and risk can be obtained. The
menu option Analysis  Probability and risk or the button “Probability and risk” (Figure 40) can
be used to obtain these results.
Figure 40: Toolbar button: Probability and risk.
When this option is selected, the dialogue shown in Figure 41 appears. The options of this dialog
are:
Figure 41: Dialog to select risk results.

Results obtained when this dialog is completed are inside a table as shown in Figure 42 for the
unregulated river case and in Figure 43 for the regulated river case.
Figure 42: Probability and risk results obtained with the risk model in the unregulated river case.
Figure 43: Probability and risk results obtained with the risk model in the regulated river case.
The results obtained in this example are:
 Total probability: It is the probability of occurrence of all the flood events considered in
the selected branches, In general, it is equal to the return period inverse of the lowest
flood considered. Its units are year-1. In the pluvial flooding case with dam, overtopping
failure probability of the dam is also obtained.
 Total economic risk: This is the economic risk due to flooding, which is obtained
multiplying probability by economic consequences in each branch. This risk is computed
in monetary units per year, which depend on the monetary units introduced in the general
data menu (Section 3.2). In the example case, this risk is obtained in M$ per year. In the
pluvial flooding case with dam, dam failure economic risk, no failure economic risk and
incremental economic risk (obtained subtracting non failure consequences to failure
consequences) are also obtained.

 Total societal risk: This is the social risk due to flooding, which is obtained multiplying
probability by loss of life in each branch. This risk is computed in fatalities per year. In the
pluvial flooding case with dam, dam failure societal risk, no failure societal risk and
incremental societal risk (obtained subtracting non failure consequences to failure
consequences) are also obtained.
These results have annualizes units, and they can be used to obtain some efficiency indexes (like
ACSLS or benefit/cost ratio) of proposed risk reduction investments, in order to perform a Cost-
Benefit Analysis.
5.4 Show listing

The option Analysis  Show listing… produces a list of the risk model detailed results. In this
list, each row represents one branch of the event tree and each column represents a variable of
the model. The probability of each branch is shown in the column prob.
When this option is clicked, the Figure 41 dialog is shown. This dialog is used to choose the
results file whose listing will be obtained.
Figure 44 shows the list obtained with one of the risk results of the example included with the
software. The data of this list can be directly copied and pasted in a spreadsheet.

Figure 44: Results list obtained with the option Show listing.
5.5 Export listing

The option Analysis  Export listing… allows the user to directly export the results listing to a
spreadsheet (with extension .xls). In this list, each row represents one branch of the event tree
and each column represents a variable of the model. The probability of each branch is shown in
the column prob.
When this option is clicked, the Figure 41 dialog is shown. This dialog is used to choose the
results file whose listing will be obtained.
5.6 Count branches

It is possible to count the total number of branches in the risk model with the option Analysis 
Count branches… When this option is clicked, the Figure 41 dialog is shown. This dialog is used
to choose the results file whose branches will be counted.

With this option a dialog is obtained with the result, like the one shown in Figure 45.
Figure 45: Dialog obtained with the counting branches option.
5.7 F-N curve

F-N curves are a very useful tool to represent dam risk and can be used to compare the dam
situation with international tolerability guidelines. This curves show the relation between
incremental loss of life and annual exceedance probability of this loss of life. The area located
under an F-N curve is equal to the incremental risk of the dam, obtained with the option
Probability and risk.
These curves could be obtained with the list of results. However, some post processing is needed.
This process can be directly made with the option Analysis F-N curve… or with the toolbar
button F-N curve (Figure 46). The result of this analysis is pairs of values of loss of life and annual
exceedance probability. IF these pairs of values are graphically represented, the F-N curve is
obtained.
The result is pairs of values of annual exceedance probability and loss of life. It these pairs of
values are graphically represented, the F-N curve is obtained.
Figure 46: Toolbar button: F-N curve.
The parts of this graph dialog are (Figure 47):
A. FN graph: In this part, the FN graph with the risk situation of the analyzed case is shown.
Each curve represents the risk situation in a results case.
B. Risk type: For the regulated river models, two types of risk results can be represented:
total flood risk and dam incremental risk (obtained with incremental consequences).
C. Classification variable: With this option, the different sections of this curve can be
classified according to a risk model variable. Each section is drawn with a different color
depending on the value of the classification variable in its associated branch.
D. Results files: This table shows all the results computed with this risk model with the
option Run analysis (Section 5.1). The selected results in this list are shown in the FN
graph.

E. Graph limits: It allows the user to manually define the probability (Y axis) and
consequences (X axis) limits in the graph. Furthermore, these axes can be changed from
logarithmic to linear. It is also possible to choose if the curve is vertically and/or
horizontally extended, to get a proper theoretical representation of annual exceedance
probability.
F. Risk tolerability guidelines: With this option, incremental risk results can be compared
with international risk tolerability guidelines. It can be very useful to evaluate dams risk
and analyse if the proposal of risk reduction measures is necessary. This graph includes
USACE and ANCOLD tolerability recommendations and a generic tolerability limit, which
is defined by a line. The shape of this line is determined choosing its value when x=1 (C
parameter) and its slope (n parameter).
G. View options: The options of this part of the toolbar allow the user to move the view,
zoom it and return to the initial graph view.
H. Graph options: This option can be used to show or hide a legend and labels for the
tolerability guidelines.
I. Export options: With these buttons, the graph can be saved as an image file. Moreover,
the data corresponding to this graph can be shown and exported in a table. When a table
is shown or exported, a dialog to add branches with equal N is shown. This option is
used to group the branches with the same consequences, so the same FN curve is
obtained although it is defined with fewer points, which is an advantage for risk models
with a high number of branches.

Figure 47: FN graph.
5.8 F-D curve

F-D curves are a very useful tool to represent economic flood risk. These curves show the relation
between flood economic consequences and annual exceedance probability of these consequences.
The area located under an F-D curve is equal to the economic risk, obtained with the option
Probability and risk.
These curves could also be obtained with the list of results. However, some post processing is
needed. This process can be directly made with the option Analysis F-D curve… or with the
toolbar button F-D curve (Figure 46). The result of this analysis is pairs of values of economic
consequences and annual exceedance probability. If these pairs of values are graphically
represented, the F-N curve is obtained.
Figure 48: Toolbar button: F-D curve
Options and procedures to obtain this type of graphs are the same that these used to obtain F-N
curves, but using economic consequences instead of loss of life results.

5.9 f-N graph
This option is used to make an analysis of the probability and loss of life results obtained in each
branch with the purpose of representing them in f-N graphs. It can be selected with the menu Analysis
f-N graph… or the button f-N graph (Figure 49).
Figure 49: Toolbar button: f-N graph.
The parts of this graph window (Figure 50) are:

A. FN graph: In this part, the fN graph with the risk situation of the analysed urban area is
shown. When the risk is classified by a variable, there is a point for each variable value.
B. Type of risk and type of fN chart: For the regulated river models, two types of risk results
can be represented: total flood risk and dam incremental risk (obtained with incremental
consequences). It is also used to select between two different types of fN graphs:
 Averaging: The result is the probability of each classification variable value and their
average consequences, computed dividing the risk into the probability. These values
are computed for each classification variable value with all the branches that
represent it. Therefore, a point is drawn for each classification value variable and an
additional point shows the urban area’s global situation. The example in Figure 50
shows an fN graph classified by failure and non-failure cases. If no classification
variable is selected, there is only one point representing the risk.
 All fN points: In this case, there is an fN point for each branch in the risk model: it
shows the relation between the probability and the consequences in the branch.
Moreover, if a classification variable is selected, points are drawn in different colors
depending on the branch value for the classification variable.
C. Classification variable: A variable can be chosen to classify risk results in the graph as
explained in the previous paragraphs.
D. Results files: This table shows all the results computed with this risk model with the
option Run analysis (Section 5.1). The selected results in this list are shown in the fN
graph.
E. Graph limits: It allows the user to manually define the probability (Y axis) and
consequences (X axis) limits in the graph. Furthermore, these axes can be changed from
logarithmic to linear
F. Risk tolerability guidelines: With this option, risk results can be compared with risk
tolerability guidelines. This graph includes USBR recommendations for incremental risk
of dams and a generic tolerability limit, which is defined by a line. The shape of this line is
determined choosing its value when x=1 (C parameter) and its slope (n parameter).

G. View options: The options of this part of the toolbar allow the user to move the view,
H. Graph options: These options can be used to show or hide a legend, auxiliary iso-risk
lines, labels with the data corresponding to each point and labels for the tolerability
guidelines.
I. Export options: With these buttons, the graph can be saved as an image file. Moreover,
the data corresponding to this graph can be shown and exported in a table.
Figure 50: fN graph classified by failure and non-failure cases in the pluvial flooding case with regulated river.

6 Cost-Benefit Analysis
6.1 Add investment

This menu is used to add the data of the investments that are being compared with a Cost- Benefit
Analysis, relating them with the risk results. A new investment can be added with the menu option
Cost-Benefit Analysis Add investment or with the corresponding toolbar button (Figure 51).
Figure 51: Toolbar button: Add investment.
When this option is chosen, the menu shown in Figure 52 is obtained with the following options:
A. Name and comments: Name of the investment that will be shown in the results graphs
and descriptive comments.
B. Costs and benefits: Cost and benefits that has this risk reduction investment. They did
not include the risk reduction benefits, which are introduced in the following point. Each
cost or benefits should be defined with its name and time period when it is applied.
C. Flood risk scenarios: This menu allows linking the risk results obtained with the risk
models with the investment. This is made defining for a specific year, the risk results in
the situations without the investment (base situation) and with the investment. Risk
reduction in each year of the period of analysis is obtained with linear interpolation
between the different risk scenarios defined.

Figure 52: Menu for adding an investment.
6.2 Investments manager

This menu is used to add, edit and remove risk reduction investments in the Cost-Benefit Analysis. It
is shown when the menu option Cost-Benefit Analysis Investment manager is selected or with
the corresponding toolbar button (Figure 53).
Figure 53: Toolbar button: Investments manager.
When this option is selected, the menu of Figure 54 is shown with a list of all the investments
introduced. This list shows the name chosen for each investment, the date and hour of the last

modification and the introduced comments. In addition, investments can be removed right-clicking on
them and selecting the option of Delete investment. They can also be modified with the option Edit
investment.
Figure 54: Investments manager menu.
6.3 Cost – Benefit graph

This option allows obtaining a bar graph that represents the results of the Cost-Benefit analysis
made with the investments defined. This graph compares the variation of costs and benefits of
the investments during the period of analysis. This graph is obtained with the option Cost-Benefit
Analysis Cost-Benefit graph or with the toolbar button Cost-Benefit graph (Figure 55).
Figure 55: Investments manager menu.
When this option is chosen, the graph shown in Figure 56 is obtained. It has the following options:
A. Cost-Benefit graph: Bar graph that compares the variation of costs (negatives) and
benefits (positives) of the investments during the period of analysis.
B. Present value: It indicates if costs and benefit represented in the graph are converted to
present value with the discount rate, introduced in the General data menu.
C. Cost and benefits represented: Cost and benefits are represented in the bar graph.
Economic risk reduction benefits, societal risk reduction benefits and other costs and
benefits can be represented for each investment through this option.
D. Value per Fatality: Economic value per each statistical fatality used to compute economic
benefits of societal risk reduction.
E. Investments included: Selected investments are represented in the bar graph.

F. View options: The options of this part of the toolbar allow the user to move the view,
G. Graph options: These options can be used to show or hide a legend.
H. Export options: With these buttons, the graph can be saved as an image file. Moreover,
the data corresponding to this graph can be shown and exported in a table.
Figure 56: Cost Benefit analysis graph
6.4 Economic indicators

This menu can be used to compute different economic indicators to evaluate the efficiency of the
proposed investments. This is made comparing the costs and benefits of each investment. These
indicators can be computed with the menu option Cost-Benefit AnalysisEconomic indicators… or
with the toolbar button Economic indicators (Figure 57).
Figure 57: Toolbar button: Economic indicators
Hence, the menu of Figure 58 is shown. It allows computing the following indicators:
 NPV (Net Present Value): Sum of the present value of all the costs and benefits of the
selected investment. The investments is recommended when VAN > 0. This comparison
is made applying the defined discount rate to all the costs and benefits with the following
equation:

Where PV is the present value of the cost or benefit that is converted (economic units), C is the
future value of the cost or benefits (economic units), r is the discount rate (%) and n is the
position of the year where this cost of benefits is introduced.
It should be remarked that the NPV includes benefits of economic risk reduction and societal risk
reduction (with the parameter Value per Fatality (VPF)).
 EAC (Equivalent Annual Cost): It is the cost or benefit per year of the selected
investment over the period of analysis. The investments is recommended when EAC > 0.
It is calculated by dividing the NPV of the project by the following factor:
Where N is the number of years of the analysis period.

 IRR (Internal Rate of Return): Discount rate that produces a VAN equal to 0. The
project is profitable if the IRR exceeds the discount rate for public investments.
 Benefit-Cost ratio: Division of the benefits present value of the selected investment
(including risk reduction investments) and the costs present value. Values higher
than 1 indicate the investment is recommended.
 TSLS (Total Statistical Lives Saved): Total number of statistical lives saved during
the period of analysis with the proposed investment. It is obtained adding the societal
risk reduction achieved every year.
 Average risk reduction benefit: Equivalent annual value of the benefits produced
by the selected investment due to economic risk reduction.
 CSLS (Cost per Statistical Life Saved): Obtained with the division between the net
present value of costs and benefits of the investment (without including the risk
reduction benefits) and the total statistical lives saved in the period (TSLS). It has
economic units and shows the cost of reducing a statistical life loss with the selected
investment. The lower this value is, the more justified is the investment.
 ACSLS (Adjusted Cost per Statistical Life Saved): Obtained with the division
between the present value of costs and benefits of the investment (including the risk
reduction benefits) and the total statistical lives saved in the period (TSLS). It has
also economic units and shows the cost of reducing a statistical life loss with the
selected investment. The lower this value is, the more justified is the investment.

Negative values indicate that the investment is justified from the economic point of
view, independently of the societal risk reduction provided.
Figure 58: Dialog to obtain economic indicators.
When this analysis is made, the table of results shown in Figure 59 is obtained. Each row shows the
results for an economic indicator.
Figure 59: Economic indicators results.

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What is the purpose of the software?

What is the purpose of the software?

What are the main components used to model river flooding?

What are the main components used to model river flooding?

USER GUIDE

2 THEORY & BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................. 6

2.1 DEFINITIONS ...................................................................................................................................... 6

3 GRAPHICAL INTERFACE ............................................................................................................... 13

3.1 PARTS OF THE GRAPHICAL INTERFACE .................................................................................................... 13

4 RISK MODEL COMPONENTS ........................................................................................................ 16

4.1 NEW MODEL .................................................................................................................................... 16

5 RISK RESULTS .............................................................................................................................. 35

5.1 COMPUTE RISK ................................................................................................................................. 35

2 iPresas Flood software – User Guide

6 COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................. 45

6.1 ADD INVESTMENT ............................................................................................................................. 45

iPresas Flood software – User Guide 3

iPresas Flood software – User Guide 5

 Other damages: environmental damages, social distress, loss of reputation, damages to

6 iPresas Flood software – User Guide

 Load analysis: Definition of the probability of loading scenarios. Loading scenarios

 System response analysis: Definition of the failure probabilities (given a loading

Figure 1: The risk analysis process.

2.3 Event trees and influence diagrams

iPresas Flood software – User Guide 7

Figure 3: Relationship between influence diagrams and event trees.

8 iPresas Flood software – User Guide

2.4 Simplified risk model

Moment Q river Fatalities Damages

Figure 4: Predefined influence diagram for river flooding (unregulated river).

 Floods: Definition of the range of return periods of the flood events to be

iPresas Flood software – User Guide 9

 Consequences: This part (green nodes) is used to calculate consequences:

 Damages: Relationship between peak discharge and economic consequences

Q Failure FatalitiesF DamagesF

Moment Gate op. Failure

Figure 5: Predefined influence diagram for river flooding (regulated river).

 Floods: Definition of the range of return periods of the floods to consider.

10 iPresas Flood software – User Guide

 Failure: Calculation of failure probability based on fragility curves.

 Q failure: Calculation of peak break discharge as a function of maximum water

 Consequences: This part (green nodes) is used to calculate flood consequences:

 DamagesF: Relationship between peak break discharge and economic

 FatalitiesNF: Relationship between peak routed discharge in non-failure cases

 DamagesNF: Relationship between peak routed discharge in non-failure cases

2.5 Cost Benefit Analysis

iPresas Flood software – User Guide 11

12 iPresas Flood software – User Guide

3.1 Parts of the graphical interface

Figure 6: Main parts of the graphical interface.

iPresas Flood software – User Guide 13

3.2 File menu

Figure 7: Structure of file menu.

The main options of this menu are:

 New: Create a new iPresas file with extension .rsk.

14 iPresas Flood software – User Guide

Figure 8: General data menu

iPresas Flood software – User Guide 15