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The document defines the probabilities of different events regarding aircraft emergency detectors (ELD): - The probability an ELD was manufactured by Altiland is 80% - The probability an ELD is defective given it was made by Altiland is 4% - Using Bayes' theorem, the probability an ELD that tests defective was made by Altiland is 70.3% - Similarly, the probability an ELD that tests defective was made by Bryant is 19.8%

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Kalyan Mukkamula
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32 views2 pages

Sol PDF

The document defines the probabilities of different events regarding aircraft emergency detectors (ELD): - The probability an ELD was manufactured by Altiland is 80% - The probability an ELD is defective given it was made by Altiland is 4% - Using Bayes' theorem, the probability an ELD that tests defective was made by Altiland is 70.3% - Similarly, the probability an ELD that tests defective was made by Bryant is 19.8%

Uploaded by

Kalyan Mukkamula
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Solution:

As per the given information let’s define the following events:


A1 = Aircraft’s emergency detector (ELD) is manufactured by Altiland Company
A2 = Aircraft’s emergency detector (ELD) is manufactured by Bryant Company
A3 = Aircraft’s emergency detector (ELD) is manufactured by Chartair Company
D = Aircraft’s emergency detector (ELD) is defective

Given probabilities:

P(A1) = 0.80
P(A2) = 0.15
P(A3) = 0.05

Probability of Aircraft’s emergency detector (ELD) manufactured by Altiland Company and


defective is 0.04
i.e. P(D | A1) = 0.04

Probability of Aircraft’s emergency detector (ELD) manufactured by Bryant Company and


defective is 0.06
i.e. P(D | A2) = 0.06

Probability of Aircraft’s emergency detector (ELD) manufactured by Chartair Company and


defective is 0.09
i.e. P(D | A3) = 0.09

(a) By using the general definition of probability, probability of randomly selected ELD
manufactured by Atliland Manufacturing Company is 0.80

(b) In order to find probability that a randomly selected ELD will be non-defective, we will figure
out for the defective ones and use the compliment.

P(D) = probability that a randomly selected ELD will be defective


1 – P(D) = probability that a randomly selected ELD will be non-defective

1 – P(D) = 1 – [(0.8 X 0.04) + (0.15 X 0.06) + (0.05 X 0.09)]

= 1 – 0.032 + 0.009 + 0.0045


= 1 – 0.0455
= 0.9545

So, probability that a randomly selected ELD will be non-defective = 0.9545


(c) To find the probability that a randomly selected ELD is then tested and is found to be defective
find the probability that it was made by the Altiland Manufacturing Company we need to use
Bayes Theorem:

( ( |
( |
∑ ( ( |

Now, putting the given probabilities:

( ( |
( |
∑ ( ( |
( ( |
( |
( ( | ( ( | ( ( |

[( ( ( ]

Hence, If a randomly selected ELD is then tested and is found to be defective, the probability
that it was made by the Altiland Manufacturing Company is 0.703

(d) In this subpart we again need to use Bayes theorem similarly what we did in part (c)
( ( |
( |
( ( | ( ( | ( ( |

[( ( ( ]

Hence, If a randomly selected ELD is then tested and is found to be defective, the probability
that it was made by the Bryant Manufacturing Company is 0.198

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