A mathematical model is a description of a system using mathematical

concepts and language. The process of developing a mathematical model is

termed mathematical modeling. Mathematical models are used in the
natural sciences (such as physics, biology, earth science, chemistry) and
engineering disciplines (such as computer science, electrical engineering), as
well as in the social sciences (such as economics, psychology, sociology,
political science). Mathematical modeling can be used for a number of
different reasons. How well any particular objective is achieved depends on
both the state of knowledge about a system and how well the modeling is
done. Examples on the range of objectives are:

a. Developing scientific understanding.

-thorough quantitative expression of current knowledge if a system(as well

as displaying what we know, might also show up what we do not know.

b. Test the effect of changes in a system

c. Aid decision making including.

1.Tactical decision by managers.

2. Strategic decision by planners.

1.3 Classifications of models

One division between models is based on the type of outcome they predict.
Deterministic models ignore random variation, and so always predict the
same outcome from a given starting point. On the other hand, the model may
be more statistical in nature and so may predict the distribution of possible
outcomes. Such models are said to be stochastic.1

A second method of distinguishing between types of models is to consider the

level of understanding on which the model is based. The simplest explanation
is to consider the hierarchy of organizational structures within the system
being modelled

A model may help to explain a system and to study the effects of different
components, and to make predictions about behavior

Mathematical models can take many forms, including dynamical systems,

statistical models, differential equations, or game theoretic models. These and
other types of models can overlap, with a given model involving a variety of
abstract structures. In general, mathematical models may include logical
models. In many cases, the quality of a scientific field depends on how well
the mathematical models developed on the theoretical side agree with results
of repeatable experiments. Lack of agreement between theoretical
mathematical models and experimental measurements often leads to
important advances as better theories are developed.

A model which uses a large amount of theoretical information generally

describes what happens at one level in the hierarchy by considering
processes at lower levels these are called mechanistic models, because they
take account of the mechanisms through which changes occur. In empirical
models, no account is taken of the mechanism by which changes to the
system occur. Instead, it is merely noted that they do occur, and the model
tries to account quantitatively for changes associated with different conditions.

The two divisions above, namely deterministic/stochasticand

mechanistic/empirical, represent ex-tremes of a range of model types. In
between lie a whole spectrum of model types. Also, the twomethods of
classification are complementary. For example, adeterministic model may be
either mech-anistic or empirical (but not stochastic). Examples of the four
broad categories of models implied bythe above method of classification are:

Empirical Mechanistic
Deterministic Predicting cattle growth Planetary motion, from a
regression relationship
based on Newtonian
mechanics with feed
intake(differential equations)
Stochastic Analysis of variance of Genetics of small
variety yields over sites populations based on
and years Mendelian inheritance,
(probabilistic equations)

One further type of model, the system model, is worthy of mention. This is
built from a series of sub-models, each of which describes the essence of
some interacting components. The above method of classification then refers
more properly to the sub-models: different types of sub-models may be used
in any one system model. Much of the modelling literature refers to ’simulation
models’. Why are they not included in the classification? The reason for this
apparent omission is that ’simulation’ refers to the way the model calculations
are done - i.e. by computer simulation. The actual model of the system is not
changed by the way in which the necessary mathematics is performed,
although our interpretation of the model may depend on the numerical
accuracy of any approximations . In the physical sciences, a traditional
mathematical model contains most of the following elements:

1. Governing equations
2. Supplementary sub-models
1. Defining equations
2. Constitutive equations
3. Assumptions and constraints
1. Initial and boundary conditions
2. Classical constraints and kinematic equations

2.2 Systems analysis

2.2.1 Making assumptions

Having determined the system to be modelled, we need to construct the

basic framework of the model. This reflects our beliefs about how the system
operates. These beliefs can be stated in the form of underlying assumptions.
Future analysis of the system treats these assumptions as being true, but the
results of such an analysis are only as valid as the assumptions.
Thus Newton assumed that mass is a universal constant, whereas
Einstein considered mass as being variable. This is one of the fundamental
differences between classical mechanics and relatively theory. Application of
the results of classical mechanics to objects traveling close to the speed of
light leads to inconsistencies between theory and observation. If the
assumptions are sufficiently precise, they may lead directly to the
mathematical equations governing the system.
In population studies, a common assumption is that, in the absence of
limiting factors, a population will grow at a rate which is proportional to its size.
A deterministic model which describes such a population in continuous time is
the differential equation.

Dp/dt=ap

where p(t)is population size at time -t, and a is a constant. Solution of this
equation by integration gives

p(t) =p(0)ea
where p(0) is population size at time zero. According to this solution,
populations grow in size at an exponential rate. Clearly, not all populations
grow exponentially fast. Since the differential equation arose from an
interpretation of the assumption, we must look to the assumption for an
explanation for this discrepancy. In this case, the explanation is the qualifier”
in the absence of limiting factors”. Most natural populations are subject to
constraints such as food supply or habitat which restrict the range of
sustainable population sizes. It is important that all assumptions are stated
clearly and concisely. This allows us to return to them later to assess their
appropriateness.

2.2.2 Flow diagrams

Where the system being modelled is more complex, we cannot simply
jump from an assumption to an equation. We must be much more methodical,
both when describing the system and when stating assumptions. Flow
diagrams are a visual aid to this end. In their most basic form, they consist of
a series of boxes linked by a network of arrows. The boxes represent physical
entities which are present in the system, whilst the arrows represent the way
these entities inter-relate. There are many ways of conducting a logical
analysis of a system as a prelude of drawing a flow diagram. Often, the most
profitable method is to consider the transfer of a resource throughout the
system.

2.3 Choosing mathematical equations

Once the structure of a model has been determined, mathematical

equations must be chosen to describe the system. It is worth choosing these
equations carefully.
2.4 Equations from the literature

It may be that somebody else has published an equation relating to the

quantities you are interested in. This provides a good starting point, but it is
necessary to proceed with caution. Problems encountered may include;

•equations derived from data with a range of explanatory variables which

does not contain the range required for model application;
•experimental conditions (the environment) differ substantially from
conditions to be encountered during model application;
•equations describe behaviour of the bulk of the data with no attempt to
account for known departures at the end of range, or no account taken of
variability.
Some areas of science are sufficiently well studied that appropriate forms
of analysis have become standard. it is then relatively safe to assume that a
similar analysis (and hence equation structure) carries over to similar
problems. Often, equations in the literature will not be expressed in exactly the
form required for the model. The dependent and explanatory variables in a
regression maybe transposed.
 2.3.2 Analogies from physics

Physicists have built mathematical models to describe a wide range of systems.

Often, the systems can be specified precisely, making the application of mathematical
equations relatively simple.

2.3.3 Data exploration

Where no information exists about the form of a relationship, the only way forwards
is to acquire a body of data and fit equations to it. This has the advantage that we are in
control of the analysis.

2.4 Solving equations

2.4.1 Analytically

There is much to be gained from obtaining an analytical solution to a model. This will
allow us to perform all of the manipulations implied by the model with the minimum of
fuss. Note that a full analytical solution for a stochastic model involves finding the
distribution of outcomes, but we may feel satisfied if we can solve the equations for the
mean and standard deviation.

2.4.2 Numerically

When analytical methods are unproductive we can use numerical methods to obtain
approximate solutions. Although they can never have the same generality as analytical
solutions, they can be just as good in any particular instance.
Numerical solution of model equations generally mimics the processes described in
the model. For difference equations, numerical solution is exact since we can use the
rules laid down in the equations to follow the evolution of the system. With a stochastic
model, we can repeatedly simulate out comes using a random number generator as
described earlier, and combine a large number of simulations to approximate the
distribution of outcomes. Differential equations provide a rather more difficult problem.
The basic method is to divide continuous time into discrete intervals, and to estimate the
state of the system at the start of each interval. Thus the approximate solution changes
through a series of steps. The crudest method for calculating the steps is to multiply the
step length by the derivative at the start of the interval. This is called Euler’s method.
More sophisticated techniques are used in performing the Runge-Kutte types of
integration. Fourth order Runge-Kutte is both commonly used and sufficiently accurate
for most applications. It is always worth treating numerical solutions to differential
equations with caution
Philosophical considerations

Many types of modeling implicitly involve claims about causality. This is

usually (but not always) true of models involving differential equations. As the
purpose of modeling is to increase our understanding of the world, the validity
of a model rests not only on its fit to empirical observations, but also on its
ability to extrapolate to situations or data beyond those originally described in
the model. One can think of this as the differentiation between qualitative and
quantitative predictions. One can also argue that a model is worthless unless
it provides some insight which goes beyond what is already known from direct
investigation of the phenomenon being studied.

An example of such criticism is the argument that the mathematical models of

optimal foraging theory do not offer insight that goes beyond the common-
sense conclusions of evolution and other basic principles of ecology.