Traders' Takedown: Stories For The Day
Traders' Takedown: Stories For The Day
08 June 2020
CNPF 15.22 20.00 31.4% 10.00 16.52 6.4% Resilient demand for shelf staples
PGOLD 46.40 51.50 11.0% 26.00 54.55 30.7% Beneficiary of resilient demand
*Entry and Exit Prices are based on the recommendations of BPI Securities Active Advisory Group
*Ratings and Price Targets are based on the recommendations of BPI Securities Research Department
This is a product of the BPITrade Sales and BPITrade Research Team. See Appendices for Analyst Certification and important disclosures. 1
BPI Traders’ Takedown – 08 June 2020
BPI SECURITIES VALUATION TABLE
LAST % UPSIDE / FY20F Div FY20F ROE FY20F EPS
TICKER RATING TARGET PRICE FY20F P/E FY19F P/B
PRICE (DOWNSIDE) Yield (%) (%) Growth
ALI 38.00
AP BUY 42.60 29.00 46.9% 9.5 1.5 4.4% 15.1% 15.6%
BDO BUY 112.00 114.00 (1.8%) 13.2 1.4 1.1% 9.9% (13.6%)
BLOOM BUY 12.00 7.11 68.8% 0 2.6 2.9% (0.2%) (100.8%)
CHIB BUY 36.50 20.30 79.8% 5.5 0.6 4.6% 10.0% 18.4%
CIC BUY 54.00 23.00 134.8% 7.5 1.1 3.8% 19.2% 13.4%
CLI BUY 6.00 3.90 53.8% 2.6 0.5 6.4% 28.2% 22.3%
CNPF BUY 20.00 15.22 31.4% 14.8 2.8 1.4% 17.7% 14.4%
DMC HOLD 16.10 4.59 250.8% 6.4 0.6 7.0% 16.1% 12.2%
DMW BUY 11.50 6.60 74.2% 10.5 1.1 3.0% 10.0% 23.5%
DNL BUY 9.70 5.45 78.0% 12.1 2.2 1.8% 17.9% 9.8%
EMP HOLD 6.70 7.90 (15.2%) 17.6 1.9 1.9% 10.5% 5.9%
EW BUY 14.00 7.65 83.0% 3.5 0.4 3.6% 10.0% 15.6%
FB HOLD 115.00 70.00 64.3% 17.1 2.7 3.6% 14.5% 13.3%
GLO HOLD 2,150.00 2,170.00 (0.9%) 13.9 3.6 4.8% 25.7% 7.4%
GTCAP BUY 1,025.00 480.00 113.5% 6.0 0.6 4.9% 9.7% 17.9%
ICT BUY 163.50 100.00 63.5% 12.2 2.2 2.7% 17.8% 38.4%
IMI HOLD 13.50 6.05 123.1% 6.7 0.6 3.5% 8.4% 27.4%
JFC HOLD 240.00 130.00 84.6% 20.4 2.7 1.5% 18.2% 15.0%
LTG BUY 24.00 8.70 175.9% 4.2 0.4 2.3% 9.1% 11.2%
MAC BUY 22.80 5.95 283.2% 7.3 1.4 2.7% 17.9% 17.7%
MAXS BUY 18.00 6.05 197.5% 5.8 0.8 3.3% 12.7% 11.7%
MBT BUY 48.20 41.50 16.1% 8.0 0.6 2.1% 7.3% (17.1%)
MEG BUY 5.40 3.18 69.8% 5.6 0.6 2.6% 10.3% 7.5%
MER HOLD 375.00 288.40 30.0% 13.4 3.7 5.8% 26.5% 3.0%
MPI BUY 6.35 3.38 87.9% 6.3 0.4 3.7% 9.4% 10.2%
MRSGI BUY 3.00 1.61 86.3% 7.3 0.6 3.7% 7.7% 35.6%
MWC HOLD 28.90 12.54 130.5% 3.9 0.4 8.0% 11.0% 11.6%
MWIDE BUY 21.85 7.00 212.1% 7.4 0.7 0.0% 15.0% (9.0%)
PIZZA BUY 15.15 6.77 123.8% 10.0 1.9 1.9% 18.1% 13.3%
PGOLD BUY 51.50 46.40 11.0% 17.6 2.1 0.9% 11.2% 14.8%
PNB BUY 60.00 23.45 155.9% 2.8 0.2 0.0% 7.4% 18.6%
RCB HOLD 27.00 19.80 36.4% 7.0 0.4 2.3% 6.0% 24.1%
RLC BUY 28.00 18.24 53.5% 9.5 0.9 2.3% 9.6% 13.5%
RRHI BUY 90.00 69.00 30.4% 20.2 1.4 1.0% 6.7% 16.0%
SCC BUY 27.50 12.76 115.5% 3.7 1.3 6.3% 28.7% 19.9%
SECB HOLD 185.00 102.50 80.5% 6.6 0.7 2.9% 9.6% 12.8%
SM HOLD 900.00 967.50 (7.0%) 23.4 3.0 1.1% 12.3% 17.8%
SMPH BUY 42.50 32.90 29.2% 21.8 3.1 1.2% 13.4% 12.7%
SHLPH HOLD 50.50 18.02 180.2% 5.3 0.7 12.6% 13.2% 12.5%
TEL BUY 1,500.00 1,180.00 27.1% 11.7 2.3 6.1% 16.9% 2.1%
UBP HOLD 68.00 54.00 25.9% 7.8 0.7 3.5% 8.6% 7.9%
URC HOLD 145.00 134.00 8.2% 25.6 3.3 2.1% 12.4% 6.5%
WLCON HOLD 19.00 16.30 16.6% 27.6 4.5 0.7% 15.3% 18.0%
Average 34.8% 10.7 2.3 2.2% 11.7% 9.6%
Source: PSE, Bloomberg, BSP
Rating System: Buy (>10% Upside); Hold (-10% Downside to +10% Upside); Sell (>10% Downside)
SECTOR VALUATION
FY20F
% Upside / PT Implied PT Implied Forward Current FY20F Div FY19A
SECTOR Rating YoY
(Downside) FY20F P/E P/B P/E P/B Yield ROE
Growth
Banking BUY 23.4% 13.3 1.1 9.2 1.1 1.9% 9.5% 25.2%
Conglomerate BUY 30.1% 24.5 2.4 19.9 2.4 1.6% 11.2% 16.1%
Consumer BUY 37.7% 31.2 3.6 22.0 3.0 3.5% 13.4% 6.3%
Gaming BUY 68.8% 18.5 4.4 7.9 3.2 0.0% 21.5% 38.9%
Infrastructure BUY 212.1% 23.2 2.2 6.7 0.8 0.0% 13.8% 10.6%
Power BUY 60.8% 13.0 2.3 9.7 1.5 7.7% 21.1% (8.9%)
Property BUY 35.8% 31.7 3.7 19.9 3.0 1.1% 13.3% 19.9%
Services BUY 76.3% 26.2 3.6 12.8 1.9 2.5% 13.6% 25.3%
Telco ADD 12.2% 16.1 3.3 13.5 3.1 5.2% 22.0% 7.4%
Utility BUY 37.4% 18.3 4.5 13.1 3.7 6.2% 27.9% 5.4%
RESEARCH TEAM
Miguel Sevidal – Telco, Transport, Gaming, Consumer
Colleen Gatchalian
This is a product of the BPITrade Sales and BPITrade Research Team. See Appendices for Analyst Certification and important disclosures. 2
BPI Traders’ Takedown – 08 June 2020
CORPORATE NEWS
PAL net loss balloons to Php9.4B
The listed operator of flag carrier Philippine Airlines (PAL) reported a net loss of Php9.38B in the first quarter, more than 10 times higher
than the previous year’s losses as as travel restrictions caused by the coronavirus pandemic “severely” hit its operations. In the same
quarter last year, its net loss attributable to equity holders of the parent company was at Php838.17M. In a regulatory filing, PAL Holdings,
Inc. placed revenues in the first quarter at Php32.07B, 18.3% lower than the Php39.24B posted a year ago. Broken down, passenger
revenues dropped 21.4% to Php27.01B, cargo revenues decreased 14.1% to Php1.9B, while ancillary revenues grew 18.4% to Php3.16B
as well as other sources of revenues, which surged 137.6% to Php3.43M. PAL attributed the drop in passenger revenues to flight
cancellations in March 2020 prompted by the pandemic. PAL’s total expenses increased 5.2% to Php38.63B from last year’s Php36.71B.
The company said the amount was “mainly due to the increase in flying operations expenses particularly fuel expenses as a result of
hedging losses.” “This however was offset by the decrease in other group’s operating expenses due to reduced flight operations during
the quarter,” it added. PAL’s total other charges went down by almost 10% to Php2.73B from Php3.03B. The company said its
performance in the first quarter “was severely affected by the economic condition of the country.” “Nevertheless, the group is committed
to keep the flag carrier continuously flying in the safest condition even in the midst of COVID-19 pandemic,” it added. PAL said further
that it will continue to assess possibilities available to mitigate the increasing risks it is currently facing.
This is a product of the BPITrade Sales and BPITrade Research Team. See Appendices for Analyst Certification and important disclosures. 3
BPI Traders’ Takedown – 08 June 2020
CORPORATE NEWS
Pandemic drives up jobless rate to 15-year record
More than seven million Filipinos were jobless amid a coronavirus pandemic in April, driving up the country’s jobless rate to a 15-year
record. The unemployment rate quickened to 17.7% from 5.1% a year earlier, the fastest since the Philippine government adopted new
definitions for its labor force survey in 2005, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said. The agency said about 7.25M Filipinos were
jobless, more than three times more than 2.27M a year earlier. Underemployed Filipinos — those already working but still looking for
more work — also rose to 6.39M from 5.61M a year earlier, pushing the underemployment rate to 18.9% from 13.4%. This was the
fastest since the 19.2% underemployment rate posted in April 2013, the statistics agency said. The size of the labor force was about
41.02M out of 73.7M Filipinos aged at least 15 years, yielding a labor force participation rate of 55.6%, the “lowest in the history of the
Philippine labor market.” The employment rate — the ratio of people with jobs to the total labor force — dropped to 82.3% in April
from 94.9% a year earlier. This was equivalent to about 33.76M Filipinos, eight million fewer than 41.76M employed people in April 2019,
the PSA said. By sector, services made up the largest share of the employed population at 57.1% in April. Industry accounted for 17%
and agriculture 25.9%. Meanwhile, employed people “with job, but not at work” swelled to 38.4% of the total, or almost 13M from 1.1%
a year earlier.
This is a product of the BPITrade Sales and BPITrade Research Team. See Appendices for Analyst Certification and important disclosures. 4
BPI Traders’ Takedown – 08 June 2020
CORPORATE NEWS
Auto sales plunge 66% in March after dealerships shut down
The automobile industry said auto sales by volume fell 66% year-on-year in March after the Luzon lockdown shuttered car dealerships
over the second half of the month. According to the joint report of the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc.
(CAMPI) and Truck Manufacturers Association (TMA) issued Friday, sales volume in March was 11,029 vehicles, against the year-earlier
total of 32,173 units. Month-on-month, sales volume fell 63%. Dealerships were shut down startingy mid-March after the government
imposed enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) over Luzon, CAMPI President Rommel Gutierrez said. “The impact of the COVID-19
pandemic was felt as early as March. We will continue to assess further effects as the community quarantine continues to be in place,”
he added. Volumes recorded in March volume brought year-to-date sales to 64,542 units, down 24%. Commercial vehicles sold in
March totaled 7,879, down 64% from February. Toyota Motors Philippines, Inc., which had a posted a 39% market share in March,
reported a 23% year-on-year decline in volume to 25,696 units. “Indeed, challenging times ahead for the industry. For now, the industry
remains hopeful for the containment of the virus at the soonest possible time while being resilient amid this crisis,” Mr. Gutierrez said.
This is a product of the BPITrade Sales and BPITrade Research Team. See Appendices for Analyst Certification and important disclosures. 5
BPI Traders’ Takedown – 08 June 2020
DIVIDENDS SCHEDULE
Type of Ex-Dividend Payment
Ticker Company Name Dividend Rate
Dividend Date Date
T FB San Miguel Food and Beverage, Inc. Cash Php0.40 06/08/2020 06/26/2020
This is a product of the BPITrade Sales and BPITrade Research Team. See Appendices for Analyst Certification and important disclosures. 6
BPI Traders’ Takedown – 08 June 2020
APPENDIX | GENERAL DISCLAIMER
The information contained herein is based on information obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but does
not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or
correctness for any purpose. All the charts and graphs are taken from publicly available sources or derived from
proprietary data. Expressed opinions may be subject to change without prior notice. Any recommendation contained
herein does not pertain to any specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any
addressee.
The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for
the exercise of judgment by addressees who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company or any
of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special,
indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the
information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further
communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof.
The information herein is not to be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or currency mentioned
therein. The information herein is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction
or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
Sources:
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BPI Traders’ Takedown – 08 June 2020
APPENDIX | SALES DISCLAIMER
This report was prepared
APPENDIX | SALESbyDISCLAIMER
a sales function within BPI Securities Corporation (“BSC”). Any opinions expressed
herein are solely those of the author and may be different from the views expressed by BSC itself and its other
departments, including the research department. Sales functions are subject to potential conflicts of interest which
the other BSC departments, including the research department, do not encounter.
This report is published for the information of the recipients only. This report is not to be construed as a solicitation
to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments, to participate in any particular trading
strategy or to provide any investment advice or services. Any recommendation contained herein does not pertain
to any specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any recipient.
BSC is not a deposit-taking institution and their obligations or liabilities do not represent the obligations or liabilities
of the Bank of the Philippine Islands ("BPI"). Securities and other financial instruments discussed, recommended,
offered, or sold by BSC: (a) are not insured by the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corporation; (b) are not deposits or
other obligations of any insured depository institution (including BPI); and (c) are subject to investment risks,
including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.
BSC may deal or transact in a manner inconsistent with the views discussed in this report. BSC trades or may trade
as principal in the instruments mentioned herein. BSC, its directors, officers and/or employees may have positions
or other interests in, and may effect transactions in, securities mentioned in this report. BSC may make a market in
the instruments discussed herein. The author of this report may know the nature of such positions and strategies.
The assumptions, estimates and opinions expressed in this report are the author's judgment as of the date hereof
and are subject to change without notice. Although this report is based on information obtained from sources
considered to be reliable as of the date hereof, the author does not make any representation or warranty, express
or implied, as to its accuracy, timeliness or completeness for any purpose. Any information is subject to change
without notice and the author is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained
herein.
Certain transactions or securities in this report are subject to substantial risk and are not appropriate for all investors.
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. BSC deals with counterparties on an arm's length
basis. BSC assumes that each counterparty is capable of making an independent evaluation of the merits and risks
of each, and an independent decision on any, transaction.
BSC does not render legal, tax or financial advice, and the information contained in this report should not be
considered as such and should not be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by the recipient who should
obtain separate legal, tax or financial advice. No liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct, special, indirect,
consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information
herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication
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BPI Traders’ Takedown – 08 June 2020
APPENDIX | RESEARCH DISCLAIMER
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) of BSC. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and
may be different from the views expressed by BSC itself and its other departments.
This report is published for the information of the recipients only. This report is not to be construed as a solicitation
to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments, to participate in any particular trading
strategy or to provide any investment advice or services. Any recommendation contained herein does not pertain to
any specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any recipient.
BSC is not a deposit-taking institution and their obligations or liabilities do not represent the obligations or liabilities
of the Bank of the Philippine Islands ("BPI").
Securities and other financial instruments discussed, recommended, offered, or sold by BSC: (a) are not insured by the
Philippine Deposit Insurance Corporation; (b) are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository
institution (including BPI); and (c) are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount
invested.
BSC may deal or transact in a manner inconsistent with the views discussed in this report. BSC trades or may trade as
principal in the instruments mentioned herein. BSC, its directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or
other interests in, and may effect transactions in, securities mentioned in this report. BSC may make a market in the
instruments discussed herein. The author of this report may know the nature of such positions and strategies.
The author(s) has received assistance from the subject company in this report including but not limited to meetings
with the management of the company. The analysts and/or associates from time to time seek to establish business
or financial relationships with companies covered in their research reports. Consequently, investors should be aware
that BSC and/or the analysts/associates may have one or more conflicts of interests that could affect the objectivity
of this report.
The assumptions, estimates and opinions expressed in this report are the author’s judgment as of the date hereof and
are subject to change without notice. Although this report is based on information obtained from sources considered
to be reliable as of the date hereof, the author does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as
to its accuracy, timeliness or completeness for any purpose. Any information is subject to change without notice and
the author is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein.
Certain transactions or securities in this report are subject to substantial risk and are not appropriate for all investors.
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. BSC deals with counterparties on an arm’s length
basis. BSC assumes that each counterparty is capable of making an independent evaluation of the merits and risks of
each, and an independent decision on any, transaction.
BSC does not render legal, tax or financial advice, and the information contained in this report should not be
considered as such and should not be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by the recipient who should
obtain separate legal, tax or financial advice. No liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct, special, indirect,
consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information
herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication
thereof.
This is a product of the BPITrade Sales and BPITrade Research Team. See Appendices for Analyst Certification and important disclosures. 9