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Conjunction Assessment Risk

The conjunction risk assessment tool analyzes the effect of different maneuver options on collision probability and geometry. Based on the results, an operator selects a solution that reduces risk while meeting operational needs. Tools were presented for conjunction risk assessment and avoidance maneuver planning for single encounters, based on collision probability and relative position visualization. Experience from routine conjunction risk analysis at NASA since 2005 was discussed, including lessons learned about conjunction assessment, flight dynamics, and flight operations methodologies. Conjunction risk is typically evaluated through probability of collision considering encounter geometry and uncertainties in state estimates.

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Mohsin Ali
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68 views2 pages

Conjunction Assessment Risk

The conjunction risk assessment tool analyzes the effect of different maneuver options on collision probability and geometry. Based on the results, an operator selects a solution that reduces risk while meeting operational needs. Tools were presented for conjunction risk assessment and avoidance maneuver planning for single encounters, based on collision probability and relative position visualization. Experience from routine conjunction risk analysis at NASA since 2005 was discussed, including lessons learned about conjunction assessment, flight dynamics, and flight operations methodologies. Conjunction risk is typically evaluated through probability of collision considering encounter geometry and uncertainties in state estimates.

Uploaded by

Mohsin Ali
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Conjunction Assessment Risk:

The conjunction risk assessment tool described in section 2 is applied to the avoidance maneuver
analysis tool. The purpose of the tool is to visualize the effect of several maneuver options, which are
different in size, direction, and epoch, to the collision probability as well as the conjunction geometry.
Based on the results, the operator selects a suitable solution which reduces the collision risk and also
meets the operational requirements.

Tools for the conjunction risk assessment and the avoidance maneuver planning for the short-term
single encounter were presented. Both tools are based on the collision probability and the relative
position visualization in the B-plane. Application of the tools to the operational collision avoidance
process was also presented, together with the conjunction handling of two satellites flying in a very
close formation, where the tools are especially useful to handle the complicated operational
requirements. conjunction assessment risk analysis is a subjective enterprise that can benefit from
quantitative aids and, to this end, Gsfc has developed a fuzzy logic construct called the F-value to
attempt to provide a statement of conjunction risk that amalgamates multiple indices and yields a more
stable intra-event assessment. This construct has now sustained an extended tuning procedure against
heuristic analyst assessment of event risk. The tuning effort has resulted in modifications to the
calculation procedure and the adjustment of tuning coefficients, producing a construct with both more
predictive force and a better statement of its error.

An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis concept is the real-time process


of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective
way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The Nasa Goddard
Space Flight Center has implemented a routine Cara process since two thousand five. Over this period,
considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and
presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight
Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied
together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the
Aura mission. Conjunction risk typically evaluated through the probability of collision Considers
both conjunction geometry and uncertainties in both state estimates. Conjunction events initially
discovered through Joint Space Operations Center screenings, usually seven days before Time of Closest
Approach. However, continues to track objects and issue conjunction updates. Changes in state estimate
and reduced propagation time cause Pc to change as event develops. These changes a combination of
potentially predictable development and unpredictable changes in state estimate covariance.
Operationally useful datum: the peak Pc. If it can reasonably be inferred that the peak Pc value has
passed, then risk assessment can be conducted against this peak value. If this value is below remediation
level, then event intensity can be relaxed.

Nasa is committed to safety of flight for all of its operational assets Performed by cara at Nasa for
robotic satellites Focus of this briefing Performed by Topo at Nasa for human spaceflight
he Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis was stood up to offer this service to all Nasa robotic satellites
Currently provides service to 70 operational satellites Nasa unmanned operational assets Other assets
International partner assets Conjunction Assessment is the process of identifying close approaches
between two orbiting objects; sometimes called conjunction screening The Joint Space Operations
Center a Usaf unit at Vandenberg Afb, maintains the high accuracy catalog of space objects, screens
Cara-supported assets against the catalog, performs OD tasking, and generates close approach data.

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