ADD

MATH
SBA

Name: Shanice Russell

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Project Title:

Modelling the growth of a town’s population with the use of exponentials and

logarithms

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Purpose of Project

To mathematically model the future population of the Fruitvale town.

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Problem Statement

Fruitvale is a small town. The population of Fruitvale town has been increasing steadily over

the years. In order to plan for the community and to accompany this growth of residents, the

town counsellors would like to mathematically model the future population of the town. They

want:

 To determine an equation for the town’s population.

 To find the rate of growth of the Fruitvale town population.

 To determine/ predict :

1. the size of the population in the year 2030 since 2013.

2. What the population will be in 2040 since 2013.

 Sketch a graph of the Fruitvale town population for the 37 years following 2013 to

show a visual representation to the rest of the town board members.

 Graphically determine the time that the population will take to reach 4 times of its

initial population (2013) and state the year.

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Mathematical Formulation

1. Equation to find the rate of growth of the town.

Growth rate = r

Present value = v

Initial value = u

Original formula

R= rate

R= Current amount – Intial amount x 100

Researcher’s formula

r = (v- u) x 100
. u

v = current population

u = initial population

r = growth rate of population

2. Average growth rate

O = Average growth rate

o = r1+r2+r3+r4+r5
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3. Logarithmic growth equation

A= A0ekt

A = ending value (amount after growth or decay)

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A0 = initial value (amount before measuring growth or decay)

e = exponential e = 2.71828183...

k = continuous growth rate (also called constant of proportionality)

t = time that has passed

Researcher’s variable:

P= Population size

P0 = initial population size

t= years passed since initial year

r= rate of growth

ln= natural log

Therefore the equation to be used will be

P= P0ert

In the year of 2013 the population of Fruitvale was 200. In 2014 the population rose by

15. In the year of 2015 the population was 230. The following year 2016, the population

was at 250, it then rose by 17 in 2017 before reaching its current population of 280 which

was recorded for the year of 2018, the last time that a population count.

The table below shows the exponential values of P and r. Where the relationship between

P and r takes the form of P= P0ert

P 200 215 230 250 267 280

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Using the principles of logarithms
P= P0ert

lnP= ln(P0ert)

lnP= lnP0 +lnert

(lne = 1 )

⸫ lnP= lnP0 + rt

lnP= rt + lnP0

This is in the same form as y= mx + c

Therefore a graph can be plotted to find the unknown values of lnP0 and r.

If a graph of lnP and t is plotted and the best fit line is a straight line is drawn, the

gradient of the line gives the value of r and the y-intercept is the log of P0.

Table showing the values of lnP and t

lnP 5.30 5.37 5.44 5.52 5.59 5.63

GRAPHING SHOWING LNP (NATURAL LOG OF THE POPULATION) AGAINST T (TIME)

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m= 0.0696385608393

m=0.07 rounded to the nearest 2 dp

r≡ m

⸫ r = 0.07

0.07≡ 7%

-Proving that the growth rate of the town is 7%

Finding the average growth rate of the town

v = 200 + 15

v = 215

u = 200

r = (v- u) x 100
. u

r1 = (215-200) x 100
. 200

r1 = (15) x 100
. 200

r1 = 0.075 x 100

r1 = 7.5%

Therefore the growth rate for the period of 2013- 2014 is 7.5%

v = 230

u = 215

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r = (v- u) x 100
. u

r2 = (230-215) x 100
. 215

r2 = (15) x 100
. 215

r2 = 0.0698 x 100

r2 = 6.98%

r2 = 7% rounded to the nearest whole number

Therefore the growth rate for the period of 2014- 2015 is 7%

v = 250

u = 230

r3 = (v- u) x 100
. u

r3 = (250- 230) x 100

r3 = 20 x 100
. 230

r3 = 0.0869 x 100

r3 = 8.7 % to 1 dp

Therefore the growth rate for the population from 2015 to 2016 was 8.7%

v =250 + 17= 267

⸫ v = 267

u = 250

r4 = (267- 250) x 100

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r4 = 17 x 100
. 250

r4 = 0.068 x 100

r4 = 6.8 %

⸫ The growth rate for population from 2016 to 2017 was 6.8%

v = 280

u = 267

r = (v- u) x 100
. u

r5 = (280- 267) x 100

r5 = 13 x 100
. 267

r5 = 0.0486 x 100

r5 = 4.9% to 1 dp

⸫The growth rate of the period 2017 to 2018 was 4.9%

Finding the average growth rate of Fruitvale Town’s population

O = r1+r2+r3+r4+r5
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O = (7.5% +7% +8.7%+6.8%+ 4.9%)

O = 6.98%

O = 7% rounded up to the nearest whole number.

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Population in 2014

P= P0ert

P= 200e0.07x1

P= 200e0.07

P= 214.501

P=215

The population in of the town was 215 according to the town’s records.

Population in 2015

P = 200e0.07x2

P= 200e0.14

P= 230.05

P= 230

The population in of the Fruitvale town was 230 according to the town’s records.

Population in 2016

P = 200e0.07x3

P = 200e0.21

P= 247

The population in of the Fruitvale town was 250 according to the town’s records. There was
only a 3 person difference.

Population in 2017

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P = 200e0.07x4

P = 200e0.07x0.28

P= 265

The population in of the Fruitvale town was 267 according to the town’s records. There was
only a 2 person difference.

Population in 2018

P = 200e0.07x5

P = 200e0.35

P= 283

The population in of the Fruitvale town was 280 according to the town’s records. There is
only a 3 person difference.

Therefore it can be said that the rate of the population is approximately 7% and that this
equation is appropriate to model the growth of this town.

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Problem Solution

Assumptions:

 It is assumed that the town’s initial population is 200

 It is assumed that the rate is constant

 It is assumed that will not be a pandemic disease outbreak that will result in
the lives to many people being lost

Using the equation determined for the town’s population to find:

2. the size of the population in the year 2030 since the year of 2013

t= 2030-2013

t=17 years

P0= 200

r=7%

P= P0ert

P= 200e(0.07 x 17years)

P= 200e1.19

P= 657.416

P= 657

⸫ the population of the town in 2030 is estimated to be 657.

1. What will the population be in 2040

P=?

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 P0 = 200 people

t = 2040-2013

t=27 years

r= 7%

Therefore the equation to be used will be

P= P0ert

P= 200e(0.07 x 27)

P= 200e(1.89)

P= 1323

⸫ In 2040 the population will be 1323

Sketching a graph of the Fruitvale town’s population for the 37 years following 2013.

POINTS USED TO SKETCH GRAPH

P 200 215 230 250 267 280 657 1323 2666

GRAPH SHOWING THE MODELLED POPULATION OF FRUITVALE

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Graphically determining the year that the population reaches 4 times its initial population
(2013)

P0 = 200

200 x 4= 800

Hence when will the population be 800.

GRAPH SHOWING THE MODELLED POPULATION OF FRUITVALE

It will take 20 years since 2013 for the town’s population to reach 4 times of its initial
population.

2013 + 20 = 2033

⸫The population will be 4 times its initial population in 2033.

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Application of Solution

The exponential growth equation formulated was P= P0ert .This equation which was proven to work,
was used to model the population of the town. By using this formula the exponential growth could be
calculated. Hence the town council can now predict or make an approximation of the number of
citizens that will be in that town for a specific year. They can now go ahead plan for the future of their
town. They will now know how to pace the expansion and development of the town and can decide
what is best for the town’s future. The growth of the town is exponential and therefore an exponential
equation is valid.

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Discussion of findings

Population is the amount of organisms of a species living in a specific area at a given time.
Fruitvale town is a small town but its population of people has been increasing more than it
has over the last 5 years. The council that runs the town wants to have an idea of the number
of people that will be residing there in the future, to facilitate the increase in residents due the
increased growing rate of the town. Planning for the future development of a town and
taking the growth of the population into consideration is very important as without planning
certain problems may arise. For example overpopulation.

The equation determined for the population was exponential. This equation was P= P0ert.
In order to find the population for specific year’s information from the town’s records were
used. The rate of was determined with the use of putting the equation in y= mx + c form and
finding the gradient of a graph drawn using the data for the first 5 years since 2013. The years
(time) since 2013, rate and initial population were then substituted in the equation to give a
prediction of the population for that specific year.

Fruitvale’s population will increase drastically over the next couple decades. As such it is
suggested that the town’s council start clearing excess forestry lands so that more houses that
houses can be built on these unused lands. This will prevent crowding. It is also suggested
that the council fixes expands their water systems, current wiring and sewage drains to these
areas to these new areas.

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Conclusion
The growth rate of the population of Fruitvale town was found to be 7%. The equation was
formulated for the population this equation was P=P0ert . The population of the town in 2030 will be
approximately 657 and the population in the year of 2040 is predicted to be 1323. In the year of 2033
the population is predicted to reach 4 times its initial population.

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Reference
Springer, Darwin . Exponents, exponential growt.2014.

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