Batangas State University

The document discusses predicting construction cycle times through regression analysis. It analyzes 40 cycle time records from bridge construction between Hong Kong and Shenzhen to classify and predict cycle times using multiple linear regression analysis. The analysis found regression techniques to be effective for analyzing construction operations in terms of cycle time prediction and productivity classification. It concludes that regression analysis can help improve construction planning, monitoring, and cost and time savings.

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Batangas State University

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Republic of the Philippines

BATANGAS STATE UNIVERSITY

Pablo Borbon Main II
Rizal Ave. Extension, Batangas City

INTRODUCTION

In the construction industry, Cycle time is the amount of activity durations, less activity
overlaps, plus the sum of queue times; i.e., time a part of a home spends waiting to be
completed. Cycle times can therefore be minimized by reducing queue times, overlapping tasks
and reducing the length of operation. Simply put, in residential construction, queue time is the
time that a home is not being worked on. It is now a typical practice in the industry for a home to
stand idle for over half the time it takes to build it. This idle time can be reduced by simultaneous
building activities. The next move is to target the different parts of the home's queue time.

The preferred strategy for overlapping tasks is the design of pull schedules by a group
that is continually modified based on experience and in response to changes in working
processes, materials, or technology. Subsequently, successful execution of these detailed plans
that involve the continued presence of a specific supervisor who is able to resolve disputes and
direct traffic. A hypothesis is that such teams can learn to manage themselves, particularly if the
incentive is focused on a team and depends on the timely, secure and reliable delivery of the
scope of the team's work.

Classification and prediction play a significant role in a construction project's effective

planning and control. Tracking production rates can be useful in estimating project results such
as the planned operation and completion times of the project. Corrective actions or changes can
be made to address any adverse effects on the timetable. Furthermore, artificial intelligence
implementations are challenged by their complexities. The simulation of operations and artificial
neural computation are the two main research streams which focused on the predictions of
cycle-time and output speed of construction activity processes.

Research efforts made by Teicholz (1963) et. al., stated that through introducing
simulation methods, they have made a significant contribution to improving the predictability of
production rates. Contributions are suspected to have better planning and monitoring during
project operations, such as calculating the length and expense of the project under uncertainty,
increasing performance and future time or cost savings (Halpin, 1977).
Republic of the Philippines
BATANGAS STATE UNIVERSITY
Pablo Borbon Main II
Rizal Ave. Extension, Batangas City

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

Even flow of production is a residential construction concept designed to increase

workflow efficiency. Through adhering to a standard schedule for the sale, design, construction,
and turnover of a house, this goal is to be accomplished. In addition, improved efficiency in the
workflow lowers cycle time, the time it takes to deliver a home to a client. Reliability increases
as variability decreases, allowing for a reduction in the period of operation. Improved efficiency
of the process is also a requirement for other measures to reduce the constructions cycle time.

In the sense of construction this paper proposes an evaluation and predictability of cycle time.
The main development is the creation of multicraft teams that are responsible for a house's
specific systems and components. The unit should be supported in: 1) overlapping tasks within
their work cycle, 2) reducing length of action by time studies, and 3) reducing work-in-process
by developing multi-skilled workers. All this with the use of regression analysis can be classified
and predicted.

RELATED LITERATURE

There are important things to be settled in construction management and one of the
most important things is settling the construction cycle through prediction. Their study in Texas
best suits in predicting a certain span using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). This study also
proves that the predicting the time needed in constructing infrastructures influences the
productivity of manpower or the development of the project Du & Gunhan (2014).

On the report od Siu & et. al.(2013), the prediction cycle can be determined through the
use of regression or in particular is MLR. It helps a lot in the field of civil engineering especially
in predicting a span with relate to the problem. Regression is the best statistical method for the
reason that there is an approach which is appropriate for the study in order to minimize the
differences of the prediction and the certain output.
Republic of the Philippines
BATANGAS STATE UNIVERSITY
Pablo Borbon Main II
Rizal Ave. Extension, Batangas City

The analysis of Bhatia & et. al. (2019), agrees with the above study in which the offsite
construction of collected data uses multiple linear regression which represents the classification
of construction cycle time. The study also acknowledges the improvement of the production and
duration of the construction and the budget of the infrastructures.

DATA GATHERING

After collecting or gathering the data which is to be used in the construction of bridge
between Hong Kong and Shenzhen China. The study uses Multiple Linear Regression to predict
and classify the construction cycle time. Table 1 or Viaduct Installation Cycle-Time Records
shows the 40 cycle-time records resulting from simulations, which define 40 different scenarios.

CONCLUSION

This paper primarily focused on the classification and prediction of construction cycle
time, using the MLRA type of regression modelling or known as the Multi-linear Regression
Analysis. Based on the data available, the following conclusions can be established.

• Regression techniques are effective in analyzing construction operations in terms of

cycle-time prediction and productivity classification.
•

REFERENCES

Bhatia, A. P. S., Han, S., Moselhi, O., Lei, Z., & Raimondi, C. (2019). Data Analytics of
Production Cycle Time for Offsite Construction Projects. Modular and Offsite Construction
(MOC) Summit Proceedings, 25-32.

Du, J., & Gunhan, S. (2014). Developing a Statistical Model for Building Settlement Prediction.
age, 24, 1.
Republic of the Philippines
BATANGAS STATE UNIVERSITY
Pablo Borbon Main II
Rizal Ave. Extension, Batangas City

Halpin, D. W. 1977. “CYCLONE - A Method for Modeling Job Site Processes.” J. Constr. Div.,
ASCE. 103(3), 489–499.

Siu, M. F., Ekyalimpa, R., Lu, M., & Abourizk, S. (2013). Applying regression analysis to predict
and classify construction cycle time. In Computing in Civil Engineering (2013) (pp. 669-676).